Westministenders: Oh No Not Another One. Thread that is.

[RedToothBrush]

In this edition of Westministers we play a game of ‘Where are they now?’

In June 2016 our screens were subjected to the sight of a number of particularly vocal MPs who participated in debates and stood on soap boxes to talk about the referendum.

The most noticeable of these for Leave were perhaps Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Gisela Stuart, Nigel Farage, Priti Patel and Kate Hoey. For Remain it was David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan, Nicola Sturgeon, Nick Clegg and Tim Farron.

It is starting to seem that anyone involved in campaigning either for or against Brexit in June 2016 has faced an epic battle for survival. Just how long can they last before being defeated or conceding defeat.

David Cameron’s scalp was the first to go, as he swanned off leaving everyone to clear up his mess.

Boris Johnson, who was keen to stamp his mark and pitch for the leadership by stitching up Cameron, got stitched up by Michael Gove who also lost his own bid for leadership as a result.

Johnson, of course, still lives to fight another day by getting a nice job as Theresa’s whipping boy. He’s occasionally let out by himself, but its Michael Fallon who does the ‘Grown Up Business’. He was said to be one of the last to support an early election. I can’t think why that might be.

Poor old Gove is now confined to a straight-jacket, the back benches where he’s been told to think about what he’s done like a naughty school child and a column in the Times

Andrea Leadsom was sent to a field of cows never to be seen again except to pop up for the odd cameo line shouting about ‘Jam’.

Queen Theresa also dealt with the other Conservative Leader Leave Candidate Mr Liam Fox, by shipping him off to every dodgy corner of the global to get pampered by state hostility.

Stephen Crabb simply crawled back under his rock.

The announcement of the General Election seems to be like the major soap incident episode where half the cast get killed off by a totally unrealistic disaster because their acting contracts weren’t being renewed.

The quitters and abdicators who now have legged it at the sight of a General Election are Gisela ‘Champion of the Brexit Bus’ Stuart and Nigel ‘Too chicken to be defeated for an eighth time and risk losing my nice EU pension’ Farage. George Osborne took the advice of his school teachers and had another career to fall back on when he didn’t become successful in his first choice.

Its rather starting to look like the curse of being a leading Brexiteer is to be made to disappear off the face of the earth or fuck off when the going gets tough. Have you seen Priti Patel lately? Does she even still exist? And Chris Grayling? He was convinced he was going to get chancellor when he supported May in her bid for the leadership.
Instead he got packed off transport and disappeared off the face of the earth much to the annoyance of everyone caught up in the rail strikes.

The only one who is remotely visible seems to be David Davis and is like May’s pet poodle who just tries to please his owner.

It’s almost like the only one still standing or hasn’t been banished is Kate Hoey. And the Lib Dems are trying to work on that one and make her sink beneath the waves, on board her Alan Partridge Titanic once and for all.

Conversely the visible Remainers seem to be – on the face of it - fairing rather better at the moment.

Sadiq Khan is hugely popular and actually does his job rather than fannying about on zip wires. Ruth Davidson is also well respected and apparently has saved Priti Patel’s job from abolition. If the rumours are to be believed bored with scrapping with Nicola, she might be lining herself up for ‘Big Things’ in Westminister. Cameron’s one time love interest, Nick Clegg hasn’t shaken the tarnish of the coalition but he is enjoying a new reputation as the Brexit Soothsayer and some people actually know who Tim Farron is now, which is progress. Nicola Sturgeon is of course riding high and seems to be a permanent thorn in Theresa’s side.

Jeremy ‘I’m a Remainer, honest comrades’ Corbyn is the one who seems to be something of a walking disaster area yet is also thriving with it like a zombie who just keeps going regardless of what you throw at him.

And then of course there is Queen Theresa. The Remainer. Who has crushed everyone in her party. Not just the saboteurs. Even her supposed ally Hammond and BBF Rudd have been thrown under the bus at her wimb when its suited May personally.

The General Election now sets a new scene and opportunity for new characters to emerge. Now the rats have left the ship or been put in their place.

Will May set course to the left or to the right or simply plow on like a bull in a china shop?

Anyway I’m now looking forward to the shocking soap opera moment where your favourite hero or villain gets killed off in a twist you didn’t see coming. Role on June 8th. If only to get pass the upcoming horror of the next six weeks.

Agreed (for once) pretty. Starmer making even more of a dog's breakfast of the LP position on the EU than JC managed at the weekend re defence.

Will lose Remain voters and does nothing to convince Leave voters. Very poor Labour Election campaign performance so far.

ron yes really worth remembering.
We are taking our right to vote for granted.

All these people wondering what to do when they have an unassailable brexit-Tory, making their vote less meaningful, could think about other ways of making their vote count - e.g. making a donation to the Libdems to help them fight seats where it will make a difference. There are details on their website.

Howabout. But on a serious note, it must be frustrating for you

A proper, functioning democracy depends upon a decent opposition. Not just so that people have a realistic choice but so that whoever ends up in power government (of whatever colour) can be held to account and not have a free run at doing whatever they want.

Unfortunately, we (the UK) are demonstrating that we are not a proper functioning democracy.

Guido Fawkes is reporting issues with Tory selection process

order-order.com/2017/04/25/conservative-selections-hit-bump-road/

Several Tory selections across the country have hit a bump in the road as CCHQ struggles to find suitable candidates and finds itself embroiled in punch-ups with local associations. North Norfolk, which is held by LibDem Norman Lamb on a much reduced majority of 4,000, should be target seat yet is struggling to find a candidate. 2015 candidate Ann Steward has so far not been fast-tracked. Leading to fears locally that CCHQ is going to impose an unwanted candidate on the seat…

In Norwich South Clive Lewis is facing a fight to keep hold of his seat amid a strong local LibDem challenge. The Tories came second there in 2015 yet are struggling to find a candidate to take on Clive this time round.

Eric Pickles surprised his association by stepping down. Eric said on April 18 he would stand again but sometime last week a deal was done – it is widely expected he will go to the Lords and is making way for a CCHQ anointed successor. Sure enough within 24 hours of his announcement three names had already come out of London, to the annoyance of the locals who had ambitions themselves…

Simon Burns is stepping down in Chelmsford – privately it is known that the three person list is already agreed and approved and selection will be on Saturday. Vicky Ford MEP is seen as a front runner.

In Hornchurch and Upminster there is “outrage” at the CCHQ shortlist of Mark Field’s parliamentary researcher Julia Dorkerill, former Cameron adviser Shaun Bailey and Chris Grayling’s SpAd Simon Jones. Locals there want a Brexit candidate and are threatening to spoil their ballots. CCHQ is refusing to amend the list.

Some of these are getting very messy for CCHQ…

Not quite the well oiled machine some seem to assume...

m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_58ff2792e4b0b6f6014a88d9
Revealed: Labour’s General Election 2017 Doorstep Message; Tories Are Party Of ‘The Privileged Few’
Seeks to put clear ‘red water’ between May and Corbyn

Election 'script'.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
The Chair of the @UKStatsAuth writes to all party leaders asking them not to "undermine trust" by lying about statistics during GE2017...

www.independent.co.uk/nestle-cut-300-jobs-workforce-blue-riband-production-poland-eu-brexit-a7701206.html
Nestlé set to cut 300 UK jobs and move production of Blue Riband bars to Poland

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/uk-independence-party/news/85382/excl-ukip-foreign-affairs-chief-quits
EXCL Ukip foreign affairs chief quits amid growing revolt against party's 'war on Muslims'

The West Midlands MEP said he “strongly disagreed” with the “misguided policy” to ban the burka and said he could not support that or other plans announced by party leader Mr Nuttall yesterday.

PoliticsHome understands more than half a dozen Ukip MEPs could withdraw support for Mr Nuttall in protest at the “vile” policies.

Curious as to where the line between offensive and not offensive lies in the heads of these people considering their previous leader.

Going back to 'Please Vote' thing: the Conservative's strategy in 2015 was to scare people to vote Conservative to avoid Labour getting in. This resulted in a lot of places in 2010 LDs voting Conservative because they liked the coalition and were not adverse to liberal conservatism. This is why the result was a shock to many. Few people anticipated this emotional reaction of Labour. They knew that there was a disgust with the LDs but it was blue LDs rejecting Labour that made the difference between a hung parliament and a majority.

The are doing the exact same thing again. This time it's different but the principal is the same. They want moderate right of centre liberals - especially Remainers - to fear Corbyn more than hard Brexit - and stay with the Conservatives rather than defect to the LDs. It's about preventing a reversal of 2010 to 2015.

They are fearful of LDs doing better than expected in Tory remain seats. Including places without a history of LD support where Labour have traditionally done better.

If Labour hold onto (yes i know) more seats than expected and there is a bigger surge of support for the LDs than expected in the right areas then this means that majority is less.

Bottom line is that whilst a Lab victory is nigh on impossible, that's not the Tory fear. The Tories fear not getting a majority and a repeat of 2010.

I've seen election-data make the comment that he expects the LD and Labour to be neck and neck in polling before the GE. I've also heard it suggested that the LDs have the potential to over take Labour and be the second party on the popular vote but not on seats elsewhere.

The Conservatives would rather the second party was crap rather than a rising threat because this result sets expectations and targets for next time. If the public smell blood in being able to unseat someone they don't like then they might just get those apathetic to the polls next time. They won't do it if they think it impossible. It's all about momentum building. It's what's ukip did until they destories the point of their existence. The Cons were forced right to head off the threat.

Hope you've all seen May's lovely Freudian slip today too:

twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/856863957063270404

Speaking in Wales she said, "We want to lead the world in preventing tourism".

The speech was about promoting tourism and trade but she clearly had benefits on her brain.

THIS is why May won't do a debate, or talk to the press. She is not as strong and confident as she makes out. This is what happens and it lets the mask of that image fall when she does it.

THIS is not a one off.

The other day she was doing an event and the Independent caught how many times she said 'Strong'. It was over ten times in fifteen minutes (they counted exactly how many but I forget how many it is).

Repetition in propaganda is a good solid device. The issue is you need to make it seem natural and don't over use it to the point that it sticks out and feels awkward.

She's doing Marr (Or is it the other one) at the weekend. Someone should do a count on how many times she repeats the various slogans.

In other news:

Leanne Wood of Plaid is defending decision not to stand.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/25/plaid-cymru-leader-leanne-wood-defends-decision-not-to-stand-in-election?CMP=twt_gu
Seems bonkers to me.

And time to wheel out a celebrity.

Heather Stewart‏ @GuardianHeather
I'm hearing Blur drummer Dave Rowntree is on the (already packed) shortlist for the plum Labour seat of Lewisham West.

I guess he's familiar with the old North/South, Working Class/Middle Class jibes though through the Oasis v Blur war of the 1990s.

RTB mentions the importance of continuing to believe in voting (and why the Conservatives are trying to increase the sense of futility)

"If the public smell blood in being able to unseat someone they don't like then they might just get those apathetic to the polls next time. They won't do it if they think it impossible. It's all about momentum building."

That's exactly what happened in Scotland which lead to the SNP landslide in 2015; it wasn't so much the 2010 result but the 2007 and 2011 Holyrood elections demonstrating that an alternative was possible - and then the riding ride of engagement as a result of the Indyref in 2014.

Unfortunately, I don't think that Middle England who decide the Government is at that final stage yet - but a start needs to be made

David Allen Green‏*@davidallengreen*

1. You can imagine the fun of reading every EU statement related to Brexit since early last year. But having done so, some points.
2. The EU side of Brexit has been markedly transparent. You can easily trace the evolution of the negotiating position.
3. It has also been markedly consistent: EU statements made within hours of the referendum result are still sound guides to action.
4. EU has set the terms of the Brexit negotiation. Read as a conversation, May's two big speeches look more like belated admissions.
5. EU has also mastered the process. By the time "guidelines" are formally adopted this week, there is little scope for UK to alter things.
6. The need for Council and Parliament approval means that terms of the Exit deal are locked in, UK has little room to make big changes.
7. AJP Taylor once wrote of "war by timetable". From the EU's perspective, this is going to be "Brexit by timetable" and on EU's terms.
8. Most interestingly, most of the key elements of the EU side were demonstrably in place before May was even prime minister.
9. In my view, it is not so much the Tory hardliners who have shaped UK policy but EU's early and firm approach. UK few other options.
10.Detailed three-part exposition of how the EU has gone about preparing for Brexit will be at @FT. First part up shortly
/ends

Repetition in propaganda is a good solid device. The issue is you need to make it seem natural and don't over use it to the point that it sticks out and feels awkward.

Nicola Sturgeon mentioned 'Tories' at least once per minute in Aviemore - didn't sound natural at all, very overdone.

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/85395/labour-brexit-spokesman-holds-out-hope-second
Labour Brexit spokesman holds out hope of second referendum and says UK could stay in EU

A shadow Brexit minister has thrown Labour’s EU policy into fresh confusion after he left the door open to a second referendum – and indicated the UK could end up staying in the bloc.

yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/da4e33b0-299a-11e7-b4ec-9abb5416ed7a/question/0b36f430-299b-11e7-b4ec-9abb5416ed7a/politics
Which party leaders do you think should take part in the TV leaders' debates?

Notable: Majority of Con supporters don't think leaders should do a tv debate. Other parties do.

May, Corbyn and Farron are top three by some distance. Then Sturgeon. Then Paul Nuttalls of the UKIPs.

As Corbyn has ruled out a second referendum on the deal last week - or rather his spokesman did - all this does is make Labour look hopelessly muddled.

Corbyn, Starmer and Blomfield are not on the same page.

Labour are proposing that EU citizens would be free to come into the country if they have a job offer.

What happens if they lose their job for whatever reason? Do they have to go "home" immediately? Within 2 weeks? 2 months?

What happens if they've been here for 4 years, have kids at school or have married a UK citizen? Do they have to go back before looking for a new job in the UK?

Begs more questions than answers

Kevin Schofield‏*@PolhomeEditor*
Gloomy Labour source told me today all MPs with majorities under 10,000 are at risk on June 8. "We're in meltdown territory.

Rough quick count - I think that's 113 out of 232.

Henry Mance‏*@henrymance*

Conservative HQ will be very happy with the coverage that Theresa May is getting on BBC news - focus on polls/ personality, not policy.

Oh, I like Dave Rowntree. He became a lawyer (human rights? Not sure but he's a good egg).

I've had another reply from my MP - it's all going to be brilliant. "We're going to make our own decisions and laws and take control of our courts."

SwedishEdith - just to extract some humour from these dire times, your MP's reply brought to mind Kenny Everett's "the best of all possible worlds", complete with extravagant swinging crossing legs

I'm sure that's not what he intended

Actually. Kenny Everett was a big tory.

I actually meant your MP - but Kenny too!

Sorry, got confused because MP is a she.

Thanks for all the reminders of why voting is so important. I have always voted and will, of course, vote this time. I was just feeling a bit sorry for myself last night.

Anyway, in looking to see if candidates had been announced here yet I found an interview with my mp where he welcomes the election because “I believe we have the right plan for negotiating with Europe but our plan is opposed by the other parties" and I got all cross again so I'll hunt out some ways to get involved

Thanks for your threads and knowledge!

Turns out Starmer is a total dick. Who'd have thought? Tbh if I still had a vote it would be increasingly hard to give it even to a remain Labour MP :-/

Pretty Frustrating but not the end of the World if they force me and others into voting Conservative to make sure the SNP get the message.
Sometimes, as you just pointed out, it is all about the long game. Scotland with Scottish MPs represented in all UK wide parties at Westminster is the solution that may finally get Devolution to a settled functioning solution.

Agree EVEL needs repealing ASAP - yet another example of DC/NC constitutional vandalism.

rtb interesting analysis on LibDem strategy but not showing in polling yet and in lots of cases Lab / LibDem vote split lets the relatively more solid Tory vote through the middle surely?

Misti I may have pointed this out about Starmer a while back.

This article talks a bit about the links between local elections and general elections, and how people tend to vote differently when they are held at the same time. I think the local elections next week will give us a good indication of how things are likely to go in June.

What will the 2017 local elections tell us about the general election?
www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/what-will-2017-local-elections-tell-us-about-general-election