Westministenders: Oh No Not Another One. Thread that is.

[RedToothBrush]

In this edition of Westministers we play a game of ‘Where are they now?’

In June 2016 our screens were subjected to the sight of a number of particularly vocal MPs who participated in debates and stood on soap boxes to talk about the referendum.

The most noticeable of these for Leave were perhaps Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Gisela Stuart, Nigel Farage, Priti Patel and Kate Hoey. For Remain it was David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan, Nicola Sturgeon, Nick Clegg and Tim Farron.

It is starting to seem that anyone involved in campaigning either for or against Brexit in June 2016 has faced an epic battle for survival. Just how long can they last before being defeated or conceding defeat.

David Cameron’s scalp was the first to go, as he swanned off leaving everyone to clear up his mess.

Boris Johnson, who was keen to stamp his mark and pitch for the leadership by stitching up Cameron, got stitched up by Michael Gove who also lost his own bid for leadership as a result.

Johnson, of course, still lives to fight another day by getting a nice job as Theresa’s whipping boy. He’s occasionally let out by himself, but its Michael Fallon who does the ‘Grown Up Business’. He was said to be one of the last to support an early election. I can’t think why that might be.

Poor old Gove is now confined to a straight-jacket, the back benches where he’s been told to think about what he’s done like a naughty school child and a column in the Times

Andrea Leadsom was sent to a field of cows never to be seen again except to pop up for the odd cameo line shouting about ‘Jam’.

Queen Theresa also dealt with the other Conservative Leader Leave Candidate Mr Liam Fox, by shipping him off to every dodgy corner of the global to get pampered by state hostility.

Stephen Crabb simply crawled back under his rock.

The announcement of the General Election seems to be like the major soap incident episode where half the cast get killed off by a totally unrealistic disaster because their acting contracts weren’t being renewed.

The quitters and abdicators who now have legged it at the sight of a General Election are Gisela ‘Champion of the Brexit Bus’ Stuart and Nigel ‘Too chicken to be defeated for an eighth time and risk losing my nice EU pension’ Farage. George Osborne took the advice of his school teachers and had another career to fall back on when he didn’t become successful in his first choice.

Its rather starting to look like the curse of being a leading Brexiteer is to be made to disappear off the face of the earth or fuck off when the going gets tough. Have you seen Priti Patel lately? Does she even still exist? And Chris Grayling? He was convinced he was going to get chancellor when he supported May in her bid for the leadership.
Instead he got packed off transport and disappeared off the face of the earth much to the annoyance of everyone caught up in the rail strikes.

The only one who is remotely visible seems to be David Davis and is like May’s pet poodle who just tries to please his owner.

It’s almost like the only one still standing or hasn’t been banished is Kate Hoey. And the Lib Dems are trying to work on that one and make her sink beneath the waves, on board her Alan Partridge Titanic once and for all.

Conversely the visible Remainers seem to be – on the face of it - fairing rather better at the moment.

Sadiq Khan is hugely popular and actually does his job rather than fannying about on zip wires. Ruth Davidson is also well respected and apparently has saved Priti Patel’s job from abolition. If the rumours are to be believed bored with scrapping with Nicola, she might be lining herself up for ‘Big Things’ in Westminister. Cameron’s one time love interest, Nick Clegg hasn’t shaken the tarnish of the coalition but he is enjoying a new reputation as the Brexit Soothsayer and some people actually know who Tim Farron is now, which is progress. Nicola Sturgeon is of course riding high and seems to be a permanent thorn in Theresa’s side.

Jeremy ‘I’m a Remainer, honest comrades’ Corbyn is the one who seems to be something of a walking disaster area yet is also thriving with it like a zombie who just keeps going regardless of what you throw at him.

And then of course there is Queen Theresa. The Remainer. Who has crushed everyone in her party. Not just the saboteurs. Even her supposed ally Hammond and BBF Rudd have been thrown under the bus at her wimb when its suited May personally.

The General Election now sets a new scene and opportunity for new characters to emerge. Now the rats have left the ship or been put in their place.

Will May set course to the left or to the right or simply plow on like a bull in a china shop?

Anyway I’m now looking forward to the shocking soap opera moment where your favourite hero or villain gets killed off in a twist you didn’t see coming. Role on June 8th. If only to get pass the upcoming horror of the next six weeks.

Latest from France - commentators say Macron is #1:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/23/french-election-voting-under-way-in-first-round-live?page=with:block-58fcf7d5e4b03149e56925b5#block-58fcf7d5e4b03149e56925b5

Let us hope so.

"A word of clarification about the official interior ministry count that is under way and shows Marine Le Pen in the lead....

This is the ongoing actual vote count which in its early stages includes mainly rural constituencies that tend to lean to the right, while results from urban areas that lean left will come in later.

The vote estimates released earlier, which are not opinion polls but partial vote counts from selected representative polling stations and are usually accurate to within a point or so, still stand.

They show Macron winning on 23-24%, and Le Pen on 21-23%."

Conservative Fillon concedes and asks his supporters to support Macron in round 2
.".. Abstention is not in my genes, above all when an extremist party is close to power. The Front National is well known for its violence and its intolerance, and its programme would lead our country to bankruptcy and Europee^^ into chaos.
Extremism can can only bring unhappiness and division to France. There is no other choice than to vote against the far right. I will vote for Emmanuel Macronn. I consider it my duty to tell you this frankly. It is up to you to reflect on what is best for your country, and for your children."

Socialist candidate Hamon also concedes and backs Macron.
Hard left left candidate Mélenchon so far refuses to concede.

Xpost misti that too!

I also agree that she won't get any majority in the Assemblee if she was ever elected. Which means it would be very hard for her to implement any of her policies.

Melenchon is being such a dick. My timeline is full of people saying that he's living proof that the far left are the far right's useful idiots. This won't go unnoticed by left leaning young people (like my daughter and her friends).

Thanks, misti, polynesian

woman The media all want the most exciting events to happen, so they hate to see a centrist do well

• centrists are safe & dull; fascists are cool; hard left is cool

Commercial media want clicks and high ratings to sell ads; the BBC wants a higher licence fee, so it sucks up to those who can influence this.

Latest news: the grungy bits in my glass of wine are 2 (drunken) moths.
I've been drinking moth wine

Watch the politics, but watch the livestock too

BBC has MLP supporting form, though BigChoc. She got a long interview on Andrew Marr, and Andrew Neill has been weird about the French election.

I've just had to switch Paul Nuttells off on BBC stating that 58% of all Moslem women are 'economically inactive'. Unchallenged by interviewer.

The BBC have creepy fascisty form atm.

And thanks to you, misti poly and red for great posting on the French election.

Moth wine saves time: meat and drink all in one go. Lindt is more reliable, I'd have thought though.

woman12345 the main problem with tactical voting is not everyone else is going to be doing it. Unless there is a really big push behind it (Basically unless Gina Miller does something properly organised) I'm dubious of it.

You either need a lot of people to be doing it to make it work, or to amplify the direction of the tide that is happening naturally.

Is the area more middle class or working class? Is it in the north, London, South west?

Is there a historical vote that has a long term pattern that differs from 2015? Think about where those votes you might need are going to come from and how likely that is going to be.

Don't just go with a spreadsheet. Also employ some local knowledge and check what has happened in the past.

RTB I'll research it, locally, thanks.
There needs to be a Gina organisation going all out to get a remain vote. But we really need a cross party remain party going after a remain vote with a Macron, attracting all parties, to counter the far right and far left.

I'd say if your MP was a Remainer, any party, contact them and see if they are prepared to really push for EEA type Brexit.
Check what they have done since the ref, their public statements, how they have voted in the HoC

If they are a Leaver, check who came 2nd and 3rd in 2015 and their margins

Remember that the Labour vote has plummeted, so to get rid of a Tory Leave MP, it would probably be worth voting LDem even if they were 3rd and quite a way behind.

Also, the LDems are the only major UK party that is courting the Remain vote:
it is very unclear what JC would do (about most things) and we have no idea who his successor will be

It's not just Gina Miller; there are other organisations trying to help get new MPs elected. E.g. More United:

www.crowdfunder.co.uk/more-united-general-election/?

Gina Miller has raised £282000 already. What exactly are they going to DO with it?

www.gofundme.com/whats-best-for-britain

Hope all these initiatives don't work at cross purposes with each other.

DH and I have never voted the same in a GE, but this time we will both vote LD.

We live in a safe Tory seat, which had a small remain majority. (Strong remain MP, though.)

LD and Labour were pretty much tied for 2nd place in 2010, but LD fell away in 2015.

We think Tory remainers in our area would be more likely to defect to the LDs than to labour. Also, we are not far from other constituencies who were LD between 2010 and 2015.

I still think the Tory MP will win (and he's not a bad egg, actually) but it's worth a shot.

That is our tactical voting strategy, anyway. We'll see what happens!

"Latest news: the grungy bits in my glass of wine are 2 (drunken) moths.
I've been drinking moth wine"

That sounds slightly grim but strangely poetic bigchoc .

Ha, MoFD, my mp was also a remainer Tory with similar share of the vote. She has voted with the government on everything since. I am in a 75% remain constituency. She tells me that she is also doing the "right" thing .

Regardless of how they campaigned for the Ref, for this GE I'd count an MP who supports the govt on important Brexit votes as a Leaver

Mathanxiety - I was going to mention Ireland, but wasn't 100% confident I'd remembered it correctly - and googling Ireland, fact checking and referendum especially on the phone just brings up all the EU fiasco implications

Apathy might well prove to be a big factor in things.

I've just looked up the intention to vote in the last few you gov surveys. There's some interesting numbers.

The last survey held 12 - 13th April put 55% of all voters 'will definitely' vote at the next GE. Split by Remain / Leaver voters this was 67% V 61%. By voting intention it broke down to Con 70, Lab 70, LD 69, UKIP 64%.

The current survey held after the GE announcement on 18-19th April put the overall 'will definitely' vote at the next GE at 63%. That's perhaps the opposite to what i thought would happen. I do expect this to perhaps wain a little over the next couple of weeks. Split by Remain / Leave it comes out as 74% / 71%. So leavers seem to have been enthusiastic about the announcement and this has narrowed the difference. By voting intention it breaking down as Con 78%, Lab 72%, LD 80%, UKIP 68%.

This is important. The recent changes in the percentage polling seem to me to be being primarily led by intention to get to the polling station over and above changing voting intention in the last couple of weeks.

Also notably though what people did last time. 2015 Con voters are the most likely to vote this time with 78%, then it's 2015 Kippers on 75%, 2015 Labour on 74%, and then 2015 LDs on 70%.

That does suggest, lots of 2015 lost LD voters floating but also much enthusiasm for prospective 2017 LD voters coming from somewhere. (26% of 2015 LD voters don't know how they are going to vote yet. This is the largest group of undecided by 2015 vote. By contrast 2015 Con voters are the most decisive with just 9% unsure what they will do this time). Conversely there are lots of 2015 Kippers who are enthusiastic about the GE - but they aren't enthusiastic about voting UKIP. That's nothing we didn't perhaps know but interesting to observe in numbers relating to how likely to vote people are.

Ukip have lost a massive 34% of their 2015 to the Cons. Corbyn's leave strategy has gained 6% of the 2015 ukip vote. Which is very poor. Especially considering the LDs have managed to poach 3% from them! They've also got a problem with 6% of their voters planning to stay home completely. (Total apathy for 2015 Lab is 3%, 2015 Cons is 2% and 2015 LDs is 1%. The Labour figure is perhaps lower than I'd anticipated).

I think these numbers are the ones worth keeping an eye on. The Con and Lab campaigns this election are already very focused on these figures and trying to influence them rather than trying to convert people from another party. The LDs are trying to perform more conversions still. They'd be wise to also have a good look at how they might persuade that 26% from 2015 of their voters to stay with them. These are not all leavers and they actually have a bigger problem with voter retention from 2015 than Labour believe it or not. (30% of 2015 LDs were leavers but the 26% above are in addition to 14% lost to the Tories and 5% to Labour)

The figures for UKIP are BAD. Labour ATM isn't as bad as i thought it would be - i think they will get worse, the LDs have more work to do than they might appear. It's all very good for the Cons - but i think therein lies the danger too - difficult to maintain.

Hi,
Thanks Red for the threads💐

Interesting that no British média has picked up on Melenchon's speech. They just took it at face value ; he
will not endorse any candidate.

However, the British media forgot to mention that The Front National was created as an anti immigration and anti communist party circa 1972 by Algerian war torturer, Jean Marie Le pen.
Furthermore once the Front Populaire ,in 1936 , collapsed, many French communists were sent to concentration camps (my great uncle in Dachau) courtesy of the French Far Right. Melenchon has not forgotten this hence him always wearing an insigna representing Communists who died in Nazi concentration camps. His closing speech tonight had the following words: 'do your duty, Liberty, Equality and Fraternity should not be taken for granted'. I personally think that it was coded language for reminding voters that Le Pen is a fascist like her father ..

Re tactical voting: I'd consider if they were Momentum or Labour too.

My local Labour candidate is yet to be confirmed. Rumour has it, it will be a Corbynite. This would put me off massively and knowing the area I think will be used heavily against them.

Our area was something of a rarity in itself as the CLP backed Owen Smith in the leadership election. I know that there are lots and lots of unhappy Labour members locally who are not going to be happy if it's going to be the rumoured candidate.

It might well have an impact on their campaigning.

We'll see when it does get announced.

Labour would be the on paper tactical choice otherwise I think. Though in practice it's WAY more complicated than even the above suggests. Lots of local stuff that has been going on that has affected even politically disengaged.

The candidates don't seem to need the slightest knowledge of the seats for which they would be selected

Even when elected, they don't show the slightest knowledge, or never make themselves visible. The Tories really might as well put up a pig and people would vote for it (old Whig jibe).

My MP is a one time Remainer, who has completely swallowed the Tory Whips crib sheet. The only hope is that at a Progressive Alliance meeting on Friday, just about everyone (as I suppose you would expect) was against her, and want to see the back of her. I suspect the Alliance won't come about, but like Richmond Park, tactical voting by paid up Labour members voting Lib Dem, could well happen again. The expectation is that the Kippers will go back to the Tories, if they bother to vote.

I agree Lico. Very much an air of Third Republic urgency to Melenchon's exhortation.

I personally think that [what Melenchon said] was coded language for reminding voters that Le Pen is a fascist like her father

Why did he need to use coded language? It leaves him open to suspicion that he can't come out against fascism because of his pro-Russian backers.

My timeline is split between Mélenchon backers expressing alarm at his position, a few supposed leftwingers indulging in a bit of dog whistle anti-semitism, and everyone else sighing and concluding that you shouldn't be surprised about a chavista being a closet fascist.

Do the French elections mean anything for the UK? Macron did a bit better than most people expected (will end with close to 24% of the vote) and Le Pen a bit worse (might not get 22%). Is there any chance that a resurgence of liberal left-of-centrism could galvanise support for anti-brexit candidates in the GE? I'm inclined to think not, but maybe I am too cynical.