Westministenders: Oh No Not Another One. Thread that is.

[RedToothBrush]

In this edition of Westministers we play a game of ‘Where are they now?’

In June 2016 our screens were subjected to the sight of a number of particularly vocal MPs who participated in debates and stood on soap boxes to talk about the referendum.

The most noticeable of these for Leave were perhaps Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Gisela Stuart, Nigel Farage, Priti Patel and Kate Hoey. For Remain it was David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan, Nicola Sturgeon, Nick Clegg and Tim Farron.

It is starting to seem that anyone involved in campaigning either for or against Brexit in June 2016 has faced an epic battle for survival. Just how long can they last before being defeated or conceding defeat.

David Cameron’s scalp was the first to go, as he swanned off leaving everyone to clear up his mess.

Boris Johnson, who was keen to stamp his mark and pitch for the leadership by stitching up Cameron, got stitched up by Michael Gove who also lost his own bid for leadership as a result.

Johnson, of course, still lives to fight another day by getting a nice job as Theresa’s whipping boy. He’s occasionally let out by himself, but its Michael Fallon who does the ‘Grown Up Business’. He was said to be one of the last to support an early election. I can’t think why that might be.

Poor old Gove is now confined to a straight-jacket, the back benches where he’s been told to think about what he’s done like a naughty school child and a column in the Times

Andrea Leadsom was sent to a field of cows never to be seen again except to pop up for the odd cameo line shouting about ‘Jam’.

Queen Theresa also dealt with the other Conservative Leader Leave Candidate Mr Liam Fox, by shipping him off to every dodgy corner of the global to get pampered by state hostility.

Stephen Crabb simply crawled back under his rock.

The announcement of the General Election seems to be like the major soap incident episode where half the cast get killed off by a totally unrealistic disaster because their acting contracts weren’t being renewed.

The quitters and abdicators who now have legged it at the sight of a General Election are Gisela ‘Champion of the Brexit Bus’ Stuart and Nigel ‘Too chicken to be defeated for an eighth time and risk losing my nice EU pension’ Farage. George Osborne took the advice of his school teachers and had another career to fall back on when he didn’t become successful in his first choice.

Its rather starting to look like the curse of being a leading Brexiteer is to be made to disappear off the face of the earth or fuck off when the going gets tough. Have you seen Priti Patel lately? Does she even still exist? And Chris Grayling? He was convinced he was going to get chancellor when he supported May in her bid for the leadership.
Instead he got packed off transport and disappeared off the face of the earth much to the annoyance of everyone caught up in the rail strikes.

The only one who is remotely visible seems to be David Davis and is like May’s pet poodle who just tries to please his owner.

It’s almost like the only one still standing or hasn’t been banished is Kate Hoey. And the Lib Dems are trying to work on that one and make her sink beneath the waves, on board her Alan Partridge Titanic once and for all.

Conversely the visible Remainers seem to be – on the face of it - fairing rather better at the moment.

Sadiq Khan is hugely popular and actually does his job rather than fannying about on zip wires. Ruth Davidson is also well respected and apparently has saved Priti Patel’s job from abolition. If the rumours are to be believed bored with scrapping with Nicola, she might be lining herself up for ‘Big Things’ in Westminister. Cameron’s one time love interest, Nick Clegg hasn’t shaken the tarnish of the coalition but he is enjoying a new reputation as the Brexit Soothsayer and some people actually know who Tim Farron is now, which is progress. Nicola Sturgeon is of course riding high and seems to be a permanent thorn in Theresa’s side.

Jeremy ‘I’m a Remainer, honest comrades’ Corbyn is the one who seems to be something of a walking disaster area yet is also thriving with it like a zombie who just keeps going regardless of what you throw at him.

And then of course there is Queen Theresa. The Remainer. Who has crushed everyone in her party. Not just the saboteurs. Even her supposed ally Hammond and BBF Rudd have been thrown under the bus at her wimb when its suited May personally.

The General Election now sets a new scene and opportunity for new characters to emerge. Now the rats have left the ship or been put in their place.

Will May set course to the left or to the right or simply plow on like a bull in a china shop?

Anyway I’m now looking forward to the shocking soap opera moment where your favourite hero or villain gets killed off in a twist you didn’t see coming. Role on June 8th. If only to get pass the upcoming horror of the next six weeks.

US Holocaust Museum‏
@HolocaustMuseum
PRESS RELEASE: @POTUS Trump to deliver keynote at our annual #HolocaustRemembrance ceremony at @USCapitol.
www.ushmm.org/information/press/press-releases/president-trump-to-speak-at-days-of-remembrance

Why does this strike fear into my heart and make me think 'what could possibly go wrong with this'?

I can't believe they invited him Red

Hope so Poly.

That MLP is doing an acceptance speech on Holocaust Remembrance day and Trump is giving a speech, in office. Unfuckingbelievable

Le Pen recently called for banning the wearing of the kippah in public and for making it illegal for French nationals to also have an Israeli passport
—
read more: www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/1.785084

"Le Pen recently called for banning the wearing of the kippah in public and for making it illegal for French nationals to also have an Israeli passport" that is utterly disgusting. I had no idea. Bloody hell.

Cadwalladr greatly overeggs the Trump-Farage-Assange souffle.

'Nearly every day of 2017 has brought forth some new nugget of fact about “Trump-Russia”...' but clearly not enough of the nuggets of fact are factual enough to charge him.

The real story is Robert and Rebecca Mercer's millions.

RedToothBrush Sun 23-Apr-17 09:41:17
Also the talk about US wanting to extridite Assange is starting to look like a precursor to a crack down and prosecution of journalists rather than any serious attempt to look at espionage related activities.
YYY to this^^

I do not think Assange is stupid enough to align with anyone. I think he is very much a lone shark in all of this.

The more people you are aligned with know what you know, the greater the danger for you if you can be isolated or if you are not really cunning about using your information.

Have we had this site linked? Someone made a spreadsheet of tactical voting on how you should vote in each constituency to get the Tories out. They have turned it into a website.

www.tactical2017.com/

Andrew Neil‏*@afneil*
TV coverage concentrating on exit polls rather than actual vote. After 20m votes counted, Le Pen on 25%, Macron 22%. Not representative?

Uh oh. Is Sunderland on the way?

French TV still reporting Macron 23,7% and MLP 21,9%. So don't know where he's getting that from.

CCHQ will shortlist candidates for target seats without even inviting applications
Is this the most centralised selection process ever ?
The candidates don't seem to need the slightest knowledge of the seats for which they would be selected

"We will not be advertising seats, due to time constraints.

Each Conservative-held seat and opposition-held Target seat that is selecting will be given a shortlist of three candidates to put to a General Meeting of the Association.

There will be consultation between the Candidates team and the Officers of the Association in drawing up the list.

As far as we can manage in the time available we will try to bear in mind your interest in any specific seats.
If you have not already done so, please let me know by sending an email to ^. ^

I would ask that you do not flag up more than three or four seats as a maximum." < so multiple applications allowed >

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2017/04/exclusive-cchq-will-shortlist-candidates-for-target-seats-without-even-inviting-applications.html

I believe that we need an independent fact-checking body and that neither side can make statements with reference to the "facts" of the referendum without it being cleared by that body - or as a minimum all article should include a link to a fact-checking body who can comment on the veracity or not of the claims being made.
[Prettybird]

Like Ireland's Referendum Commission, perhaps?

tactical2017 is serious utter BOLLOCKS imho.

Macron looks to be 1# or possibly #2 this round.

If that happens, he would get through to round 2 and win the Presidency by a big majority according to all the polls

• French polls are supposed to be far more accurate than ours

(to be precise, UK polls seem more inaccurate than those of comparable countries, even for vote % not seats. Not sure why)

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/23/french-election-voting-under-way-in-first-round-live

"Whoever wins the Macron-Le Pen race, the parliamentary elections that follow in June will be crucial.
The majority in the lower house will determine how a new president could govern, and France is likely to require a new form of coalition politics. If elected, Macron – who is fielding MP candidates from his fledgling movement, En Marche! (On the Move) – would have to seek a new kind of parliamentary majority across the centre left-right divide.

If Le Pen did win the presidency, she would very probably not win a parliament majority, thwarting her ability to govern.
But her party hopes to increase its MPs in the 577-seat house.
Currently Le Pen has only two MPs."

Misti Why does she has only 2 out of 577 MPs ? How many does she hope to get in June ?

Math RoI Referendum Commission sounds a brilliantly sensible idea that is Not Invented Here
Very unBritish for a public body to basically check that politicians aren't lying or delusional

Because of course so many are indeed lying, delusional and / or revelling in ignorance
I fear the RoI respects experts

The candidates don't seem to need the slightest knowledge of the seats for which they would be selected
Because they're delegates of the executive?

The candidates don't seem to need the slightest knowledge of the seats for which they would be selected
Because they're delegates of the executive?

red what's the problem with tactical2017?
I'm in a tory git constituency and it's recommended lib or labour, should I vote lib to get a tory git de throned?

whoops double posty thing.

Woman its too simplist and not reflecting the patterns of voter movement happening. Basing on 2015 alone seems a very odd way to do it.

Its a start, but I suspect in some cases its more likely to do more damage than good by splitting the vote.

woman12345, who is behind the list?

Its important to know the original source.

If you don't know it or can't find it. Ask questions.

See the notes:
This doesn't take into account a "post Brexit Lib Dem surge" but I'm not sure how to! (ideas welcomed)

That should be a bit of clue that the person doing it, doesn't really know what they are doing.

There are regional / demographic differences that are important considerations too.

This isn't taking any of that into consideration.

Thanks for posting it bigly and thanks for the reply red.

I'm clueless on tactical voting, and would really like any good advice on what I could do to vote out my particular tory, like a few others .

BigChoc this is the reason why Macron has always been a hard choice to make.
Because he doesn't have a party as such behind him, he will struggle to get a majority of seats from his 'party'.
Having a coalition is a quite normal thing to see in France and not an issue at all. Parties from the right or the left do get together to form a coalition and govern.
The issue here is that it's hard to predict which way the Assemblée National (eq to the HoC) will go. Will the coalition be on the right or the left?
Macron has feet in both sides and his politics will be heavily influenced by the results of the next election (for the MP).

It's also worth remembering that we have had the situation in France where the President was from one side (left) and the Assemblee form the other (right). The result was that the president had no power whatsoever and it's the Premier Ministre who was actually in charge. The President is only the head of the army after all. It's the Premier Ministre who is taking the decision for all the rest (incl and esp all the more internal/national decisions)

What does happen normally though is that the president is elected, he has the majority at the Assemblee (even if with a coalition). He choses the Premier Ministre and he is the one who is also deciding/guiding the politics.
Things could be quite different this time with Macron. The deciding factor will actually be the election for the MPs.

BBC so far interview questions:
"Is Macron a political 'plant'?"
"Is Macron part of a socialist conspiracy?"
"Macron married his teacher and worked for Rothschilds." Noticing that Rothschilds is repeated periodically in BBC reporting.

Who needs bots when you got the BBC.

Why does she has only 2 out of 577 MPs ? How many does she hope to get in June?

Because like UKIP the FN has few if any viable, competent candidates, and because the two-round system penalises extremists. The FN below top leadership level is at least as useless, corrupt and racist as UKIP.

Don't know the answer to your second question but she's not going to get a majority and she won't be part of the eventual coalition.

Re whybthe FN has only two seats, this is coming from the system used for the election.
Just like the presidential election, the first round allows to chose two candidates. People then chose between those two who is going to be the MPs. The candidates also need to have at least 12.5% of the votes. This is in favour of the bigger parties.

The reason why this system is in favour is because it avoids to have a fragmentation of the votes. It's easier to have a majority at the Aseemblee and avoids the constant need of a coalition. The system is therefore more stable and easier to manage.
It's not dissimilar to what happens in the uk with the LD or the greens having very few MPs, despite representing a big proportion of the votes.