Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Election Data‏*@election*_data

(oh, and btw Labour lead by 2% amongst 18-24s. They lead by 9% amongst 25-34 yr olds but that age group voted to Remain too)

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/big-tory-victory-make-soft-brexit-likely/
Could a big Tory victory make a soft Brexit more likely?

It's all about personal vendettas with the tories isn't it?
DC and his referendum to placate the hard right in his own party
TM and her pretty shocking U turn on a snap GE
It's all to bolster their own fragile egos
"I neeeed people to agree with me or I won't play"
Ffs

wrong I suppose it depends what you mean re progressive politics doesn't it?

So often on these threads leavers completely ignore the real and difficult decisions having to be made by posters and their families - perhaps leavers really don't think that leaving the EU will affect their friends and neighbours? I don't know. But the complete lack of empathy and from some leavers to people whose lives and families are going to be completely torn apart mean that any dialogue is going to be very difficult.

Lots of remainers - me included - don't think the EU is perfect but when we point out that leave have provided NO viable alternative despite decades of prep we are mocked

Why is that?

wrong I don't wish harm on anyone, but would I regret the accidental death of a loathsome individual if it would have meant that my country hadn't turned into a divided nation with an uncertain future and a return to racism? No, I would not. Not exactly sure what his kids have to do with it- does he care about mine? I doubt it.

I agree with the German analysis.
I think TM has had her hands tied up by the hard brexiters and that a hard Brexit might well not have been what she wanted. But she had no other choice that aligning herself with that.
There has already been some movements showing the hard brexiters were not as favoured anymore. Her stance with the EU had softened up. She is trying to gain a bigger of HER majority in the HoC (rather than a bigger majority of Tories iyswim).
Having no elections between now and the end of the 'transition period' also make sense TBH.

However, I am scared to death of 5 (actually 6!) years with TM as the PM. Not just with Brexit but wth the direction that te whole country will take in the next hew years re the NHS, social care etc etc.

From RTB link
It’s all becoming like the fifth series of a TV show in which everything has become too complicated to follow and you sort of hope the whole thing ends.

Oh YES.....

Over 4000 people have joined the lib dems since the election was announced; they've doubled the membership numbers they had in 2015.

I never checked to see what Farage's reaction was to today's announcement. I wonder if he'll give trying to become an MP another shot.

It’s all becoming like the fifth series of a TV show in which everything has become too complicated to follow and you sort of hope the whole thing ends.

Becoming? I was there about six months ago. Except its not going to end for years and years.

That's the beauty of Brexit. Its the gift that keeps giving. The public want it over and done with. The people who voted for it contains the group of people who generally hate politics most too. Their reward? More politics.

Sam Coates Times‏**@SamCoatesTimes**
One Brexiteer says: "Does this mean Brexit will now go on for 4 years rather than 2". A 2020 GE wd have meant two year negotiation deadline

Sam Coates Times‏**@SamCoatesTimes**

Back in Oct, I wrote 10 reasons why a spring election made sense, despite vociferous No10 denials (Some dated now)

I posted this at the time but worth sharing again as Sam Coates is/was right apart from no 9.

It does sound as if, for remain voters who would not be too unhappy about a (very) soft, very delayed brexit, that the GE is probably a good thing - assuming the Tories get an increased majority, which one has to suppose that they will.

Mistrigri, the BBC news just said that the EU are viewing it in that way and think that the chances of a deal have gone up rather than down.

Saw this on Twitter and thought of this thread....

@nickreeves9876: May can't risk a debate because it would go "You said this before June 23 now you say the opposite. Were you lying then or or now?"
#Brexit

I do think that for May it is a risky strategy. She already has a majority, and a mandate for brexit. There are many ways that this could go horribly wrong, and many fewer that could improve her situation.

David Dimbleby was a little aghast when told that there would be no debates on PM just now. He thought this a very risky strategy.

I think it's a cynical move but quite a shrewd one and I agree that it increases the chance of a soft Brexit as, assuming the Tories massively increase their majority, TM will no longer be held to ransom by a small group of hardliners. It's just getting harder to believe anything a politician says - I was watching Charlie Brooker's summary of Brexit a few days ago and it showed Bojo and Gove stating categorically that they had no intention of running for Tory leader. You can now add footage of TM repeatedly saying that she has no intention of holding an early GE.
I can't believe that Camoron has the nerve to start tweeting good luck to all his chums. He's acting like nothing has happened, let alone that it was all his fault. Cunt. I hope his cock falls off.

It is a risky strategy, ultimately though look at the number of people on MN going do I vote LD or Lab. That's the issue. The left/centre is split and not got strong obvious leader.

However bad May is, she doesn't have that problem having neutralised UKIP by staging a take over.

It will be interesting how Farage / Banks react from that point of view.

hoolies I hope so too

I'm going to go out a bit on a limb here and say that in 10 - 15 years time there will not be a Labour Party as we know it. I think that its possibly got to a point where it will not come back from. I don't see how they reinvent themselves. They were the party of the traditional working class - a class which is the oldest and is shrinking and they are currently polling third in the C2DE group who you'd think they should be winning with.

Instead the Lib Dems will come out firmly post Brexit as the party of the centre and local activism whilst the Greens will take over on the left. Both are much more either pragmatic or fresh on ideas and thinking.

Labour does appeal to a lot of young people, but I equally think that they are attracted to a vision of Labour that really isn't far removed from the Greens.

I genuinely struggle to see what Labour can stand for that's distinctly different and unique and appeals to who its aimed at. Its a sad thing to say, but I'm finding it difficult to come up with an argument to the contrary.

Ben de Pear‏*@bendepear*
BREAKING CPS have just told @Channel4News that they are considering charges against more than 30 individuals over #electionexpenses for 2015

THIRTY!