Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

The Lib Dem / Con seats are really interesting. Just looking at Tim Farron's seat. He's been building from a tiny majority in 2005 to a safe position now. However his seat may well have voted Leave and was previously Con, so I think he at least will lose votes. Complete opposite of London seats.

Not sure how that calculation will work through with Brexit supporting Cornwall seats.

Interesting to read Deutsche Bank's take on today's announcement and how they see it effecting Brexit.

I shall be voting lib dem, my constituency is a Tory safe seat, but you've got to try.

I'm so not surprised about the TV debate. Indeed I suspect the strategy is to let Corbyn hang himself. All the complaints about not having enough air time? I wouldn't bet against wall to wall Corbyn being PROMOTED by the Conservatives to remind everyone of how much they dislike him. Plus Corbyn generally does better against TM at Prime Minister's Questions. She looks awkward and flustered, whilst he says weird stuff, he still looks better in comparison.

PLUS don't forget Tiny Tim.

Tim Farron‏*@timfarron*
@theresa_may you debated me in 1992, so debate me now. What changed?

Tim and Theresa go WAY back and he has a good measure of her. Farron is generally very good in tv debates. He would win votes off the back of it I suspect. He has said stuff I don't like, but on the whole I think he fairs well in comparison to May and Corbyn. The Conservatives want to promote the idea that the LDs have no chance and won't want them having any sort of platform anywhere as they are the danger to them.

This is why I very much question a lot of stuff floating about re: tactically voted who came 2nd in 2015. That won't work and looking at one spreadsheet for it I've seen, I can see some problems with it. Its a strategy which might work for the Conservatives for the reason I mention above. I'll talk about why its not necessarily the way to go at length in time. Voting patterns since June have not been like that. Its a lot more complex than reverting to 2015, as that neglects to understand how and why Tories won in 2015 and why the LDs have been regaining lost ground since June last year.

Certainly this is where May local elections also comes in. Voting twice in a month is going to massively distort things and confuse people I suspect too. I think there will be lots of people who will now fail to vote in the locals and will only vote in the General.

Who is most likely to vote in both might well be important, especially in certain constituencies. I need to try and find out which might be most affected.

Also how does that work for students? May / June is exam time. The first week in June was the last week of my exams so I wonder if there will be some students registered in the 'wrong' place at the wrong time.

Holding the GE on the same day as the locals would have saved the tax payer money. There has to be a real strategic / political reason for them not to.

Who does voter apathy / fatigue most likely affect? How do you counter that? I already see a couple of posters here displaying symptoms. Do not succumb to it. There are certain groups that want you to.

Jennifer Williams‏ @JenWilliamsMEN

Midday: Gorton goes ahead, advises CCHQ
3pm: Gorton will be cancelled, says D Davis
4pm: it's up to council chief exec, says leader

More on whether it will be cancelled or not:
www.markpack.org.uk/149289/2017-general-election-manchester-gorton/
4 key points about the early general election – including the question mark over ManchesterGorton

Theresa May said before that she would not pull the UK out of the EHCR until after a GE. It will be interesting to see if it makes the Conservative manifesto.

Gareth Snell MP‏*@gareth*_snell
Anyone fancy a return trip to The Potteries? #GE17

If he wasn't such a pin the tail on the donkey of a candidate I might feel sorry for him.

Wouldn't bet on Snell retaining his seat.

Not enough notice tiggy. Need to give so many weeks notice.

They could have if they had wanted to. Why did they suddenly change their mind? Or why would they choose not to?

Remember Lord Ashcroft has been doing some polling very recently too ( I should have clocked it when I saw that). It was on the cards.

‏Verified account @NicolaSturgeon** 27m27 minutes ago

If PM doesnt have the confidence to debate her plans on TV with other leaders, broadcasters should empty chair her and go ahead anyway.

I've said it on the other thread, but will say it again. I cannot understand how the opposition parties do not make the Con's have a vote of no confidence in their own gov't or have to change the law in the light of the fixed term parliament act they introduced. They are not doing anything in the 'national interest'. They are doing it in the Conservative interest.

Mother, I can't say I disagree. I don't want a GE now, but that's different from thinking May is doing the wrong thing or is being unfair.

I can't argue with the logic of holding one.

I don't think it will make things more unified though. I think it will divide the country once again.

And who says Article 50 in completely irreversible? If a new gov't came in and said to the EU they wanted to withdraw the article 50 before Brexit, it is up to the EU if they wanted to agree.

Even the guy who wrote says it is not irrevocable.

The Empty Chair would still have an effect.

Corbyn is the face of Labour. The Conservatives want to remind the public of it. May is awful at press conference / debates. She would do better by not appearing than appearing because it lets Jeremy hang himself.

Loku I for one would love to see NS defend her torpedoing of Red Ed last time round and her reasoning on coalition politics now. If there is such a thing as a coalition of the Left then debating without the Tories looks like a plan. Pretty sure it would only serve to highlight why such a thing is beyond reasoning and result in loads more Tory votes though.

flat

I voted remain on ds1 behalf

What the hell is this zyklon business??

Actually, maybe it is to silence her own party and say she has a mandate to them. Some of them would be quite happy to walk away whatever the consequences for people. "No deal better than a bad deal' etc. She knows the UK needs a transitional deal to survive.

It is to quieten her own Con 'b*stards'. They keep going on about the SNP. and the others in opposition. They would only gain a few Scottish seats, if any. They have a majority now anyway. But I think it is to deal with the internal threats in the Con party itself.

Craig Steele‏*@craig88*
Did you know that polling stations are sometimes used as primary schools? #GE2017

Election Data‏**@election**_data
Tories lead by 56% (68:12) among over 65s in the ICM poll. At this stage in 2015 it was 18% (49:31). Fastest growing part of electorate.

Election Data‏**@election**_data
The last tweet is the election. In a nutshell. 35% of 18-24s say they are 'certain' to vote - it's 72% for over 65s.

Its a deliberate strategy is to disillusion the young. They were already after the ref. A June election is also the most difficult month for 18 - 24 year olds due to it being the end of the university year and many will have finished and be returning home the first week in June.

squoosh and badders My post at 15.07 was a comment on the difficulty of discussing progressive politics, with a lament that it seems almost impossible these days to do this across the leave/remain divide and an invitation to try. I thought it was fairly self explanatory and it really wasn't meant to come across as PA. The responses I got suggest that my comment was not so far off the mark.