Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

"So if you've obtained your qualification before Brexit, you're good wrt mutual recognition in the EU."

Will English degrees, no longer be recognised in EU post 2019?

14. For reasons of legal certainty, the Agreement should ensure, in the United Kingdom and in the EU27, the continued recognition of diplomas, certificates and other evidence of formal qualification obtained in any of the Union Member States before the withdrawal date, in accordance with Union law rules applicable before that date. It should also provide for arrangements relating to procedures for recognition which are ongoing on the withdrawal date.

woman The above is from the paper the European Commission are working at the moment. It may be that there will be negotiations on mutual recognition for all or some qualifications. Whether that will happen in the 2 yrs, the following 3 transitional or after, is all yet to be revealed. I would think the above is to protect current EU citizens (inc. Brits).

So there may be an agreement on recognition or just recognition of some qualifications. Professional bodies too. Sometimes all someone needs to do is a short conversion course.

Before the accession of Slovakia, an acquaintance of mine had a Slovakian nurse as her au pair/nanny. Her qualification was not recognised in the UK at that time. When Slovakia became a member of the EU, she was off. She was a fabulously competent person and it was certainly the nursing profession's gain.

Also, for example, at the moment many UK solicitors are registering with the Law Society of Ireland as you have to be qualified in an EU state to practice there. The next step to registering would be to get a practising certificate, but that can be done later if needed. Now this may continue after Brexit if the Irish Law Society are still allowed to recognise the UK qualification as I think they did before EU membership (I may be wrong on that, but I think they did). But people aren't taking any chances and I presume they wish to be able to practice straight away.

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/17/british-lawyers-register-law-society-ireland-brexit-insurance-eu-courts

FT: Future lack of constraints on May

https://www.ft.com/content/092d84d4-2427-11e7-a34a-538b4cb30025

"To learn about a leader, ignore their manifesto and just remove their constraints.
Power reveals and power reveals absolutely.

It is an extreme way of getting to know someone, granted, but not too extreme for the British to try."

"On June 9 .... Theresa May could be the most powerful prime minister since the second world war"

"If there is a limit to Mrs May's power, it will be Scotland....
Those voters can now expect Conservative majorities in Westminster as far as the eye can see, starting in June.

Mrs May must govern magnanimously or avoid provoking them to nationalism.

It is not much of a constraint, but it will have to do.
The others expire in seven weeks"

< suggests Scotland should vote SNP, as the only hope of constraining May from her worst excesses. She would certainly use a much increased Scottish Tory vote and / or winning more than^ a couple of seats back from the SNP - as agreement with her policies >^

The short answer is that I don't know

"What is Lexit?"

Left-wing Brexit. A humorous concept.

That's another of the issues that must be sorted out to protect expats after Brexit:
no use having permission to stay if you can't continue in your profession.

The whole situation with expats is so complex - almost everyone thinks it's just a matter of obtaining political agreement. Wrong.

The EU negotiators are insisting that expats must retain all their current rights.

The UK may want to curtail some of these, e.g.

• the right to bring dependents, such as elderly infirm parents or disabled DC or siblings dependents
• may want to save money by not indexing the state pension in line with that of UK residents
• or not fully refunding healthcare or social care costs.

"Mrs May must govern magnanimously or avoid provoking them to nationalism."

Big choc, calling nationalists 'separatists' (just short of separatist guerillas) is definitely a word choice that lacks a friendly tone. She is starting with calling people her campaign wants to smear saboteurs or separatists. Wonder what specially chosen words will be extended to other groups?

Left-wing Brexit. A humorous concept.

Alternatively: an oxymoron.

Carole Cadwalladr on the Leave.EU investigation:

1/3
Yes! So. The key questions:

1. Did Cambridge Analytica do work for Leave.eu. Yes.
2. Is CA majority owned by Robert Mercer? Yes.

2/3
3) Is Robert Mercer - born in the US - an impermissible donor? Yes.
4) Does this also constitute overspending? Yes.

2/3
3) Is Robert Mercer - born in the US - an impermissible donor? Yes.
4) Does this also constitute overspending? Yes.
And. The big one...

3/3
5) If a US billionaire has covertly influenced the democratic process? Does this meet the legal test of "foreign subversion"?

Anyone?

This seems as huge as it gets to me, and yet such is the state we're in I have zero confidence that will go anywhere. I hope I'm wrong.

I agree, Kaija it is huge (and it is a measure of Arron Banks's arrogance that he boasted about his dirty tricks campaign to Carole Cadwalladr) but what happens if all the allegations are found to be correct? It seems there are a few people in the Guardian and on MN getting furious about it and no one else seems to give a stuff. In fact, thinking about it, it's almost as if AB wanted people to know how low he could go, in order to get a sort of tacit approval to do it next time ("Well, you didn't complain in 2016 so why would you mind now?").

Who, in a position to do anything about this, will be willing to do anything about this?

So its looking like we're following a most probably harmful path due to a potentially unduly influenced result of a referendum that there was likely no mandate for given there's up to 30 MPs in situ due to election fraud.

I definitely need a drink now.

Cailleach1 thanks for that misti so, it wasn't a terrorist attack. Good that that news is out now.
On Mercer's donations and May's increasingly incendiary language, red's thread title seems more and more pertinent. Seems like we have an openly corrupt system with no real representation for 48% of the population. That's sustainable only in one type of system.

I've been trying to retrace some of the funding links of various groups with Leave:

DUP:

www.opendemocracy.net/uk/peter-geoghegan-adam-ramsay/you-aren-t-allowed-to-know-who-paid-for-key-leave-campaign-adverts

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/24/eu-referendum-spending-official-campaigns-investigation-opens-electoral-commission

Constitutional Reform Group and Steve Baker (High Wycombe MP)

www.constitutionreformgroup.co.uk
Which has some interesting ideas on what to do with all 4 countries of Britain, and how to change the HOL.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/to-preserve-the-union-we-might-have-to-go-our-separate-ways/

and the European Research Group
www.stevebaker.info/2016/11/a-real-eu-exit-not-a-fake-one/

Funding streams for all of the above is not clear, or not stated at all. Some links seem to have disappeared over the last few months, or I'm not searching in the right places.

If it wasn't for this thread I think I'd go bonkers in the noot.

^That was a response to this:

It seems there are a few people in the Guardian and on MN getting furious about it and no one else seems to give a stuff

"Mrs May must govern magnanimously or avoid provoking them to nationalism."

Big choc, calling nationalists 'separatists' (just short of separatist guerillas) is definitely a word choice that lacks a friendly tone. She is starting with calling people her campaign wants to smear saboteurs or separatists. Wonder what specially chosen words will be extended to other groups?

I really think if she carries on like that she will definitely cause Scotland to vote for Independence and Ireland to reunite. Once these happen things like the UK's permanent place on the Security Council will go too. The genii is out of the bottle now - it won't go back.

I really think if she carries on like that she will definitely cause Scotland to vote for Independence and Ireland to reunite.
If you check out the Constitutional Reform Group's aims, I think that was always the game plan:
"So perhaps something much more fundamental is required. The all-party Constitutional Reform Group (CRG) has just published proposals for a new Act of Union that would effectively turn the county into a federation, with four self-standing national units voluntarily pooling their sovereignty to a central administration. At its most radical, the plan would see an English Parliament and the replacement of the House of Lords with a new second chamber drawn from the four parts of the UK."
from the DT article.
Although I'm not sure how 'self standing national units pool their sovereignty' .

New Statesman: Could the 2017 general election turn Wales blue?

"Labour got the most votes in Wales for the first time in the 1922 general election, and it has done so at every general election since then.
But this could just be the election where that formidable run comes to an end.

Yes, things really are that bad for Labour."

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/could-2017-general-election-turn-wales-blue

Front cover of tomorrow's Times:
'Trump puts EU ahead of UK in trade queue'
OMG who saw that shock coming.

Is that confirmation that we are talking Leave.Eu / Cambridge Analytica?
OMG. Shocking.

Just catching up with HIGNFY. Ian Hislop compared the DM saboteurs headline with Turkey. Good on him!

'Trump puts EU ahead of UK in trade queue'
You mean another thing Obama may not have been wrong about when it actually was looked in to? Quelle surprise

Beware the Swivel-eyed are about:

johnredwoodsdiary.com/2017/04/21/buying-things-from-the-eu/

"Most of the things we export to them are tariff free under WTO rules or would be subject to very low tariffs.
All services are tariff free"

< ffs, with a WTO deal the EU won't allow the Uk to export services.
So it doesn't matter what the tariffs are, if we can't export them at all !
Services are 80% of UK exports >

"I would like to reassure people who are worried about this.

If by any chance the rest of the EU does turn down our offer of tariff free trade in an unlikely fit of self harm,
< who did you say is self-harming ? >

we can find plenty of cheaper and better substitutes.
You do not have to buy German or French cars.
There is now a good choice of models, prices and specifications available from a range of UK car factories"

< ffs, the 100% UK vehicles (i.e. without imported parts going back & forth across the Channel) are niche luxury cars, that only the "rich elite"- you and your mates - can afford.
Impossible for the vast majority of the public.
"Let them drive brioche" >

Something else to consider after Turkey's grim referendum:

Remember in an earlier thread we were worried because the US has ordained that all engine maintenance of the F35 fighters - to be bought by the UK and other European countries - must be done in Turkey.

These particular F35 jets would (eventually !) go on the Uk's aircraft carriers

We raised the obvious security concern of what happens if we fall out with Turkey,
but we were repeatedly told we were making a fuss about nothing.

Are we allowed to make a fuss now ?

Has anyone established what car Deadwood Redwood drives?

Good god, the comments under john redwood's article are so delusional it is frightening...

www.independent.co.uk/life-style/men-sexist-homophobic-jokes-masculinity-insecure-anti-gay-study-gender-roles-western-carolina-a7694591.html
Men use sexist and homophobic jokes due to insecurity over their masculinity, study claims
They feel the need to reaffirm their own sense of self

I am saying NOTHING.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/leave-eu-under-investigation-over-eu-referendum-spending?CMP=share_btn_tw
Leave.EU under investigation over EU referendum spending
Electoral Commission launches inquiry into campaign headed by Nigel Farage and Arron Banks over involvement of data firm

Nice to see it being looked into at least.

Voter Registration data:
www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group
This is the official data on voter registration for the last few weeks. As you might expect there has been a huge spike this week. You might expect most in the under 25 group, but there is also a significant number in the 25 - 34 year old group, and bigger than you might expect.