Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

The curtains are finally parting to reveal the machinations of Cambridge Analytica and Robert Mercer, I see. About time.

Woman, I posted a few links a few threads back on DUP Leave financing, but I can't remember what threads they were or figure out if they are even still available (we move pretty fast here).

[Howabout] - are you really discounting the ability of 50 Scottish Labour MPs to reshape the Labour Party from within? - why do you think it is in such a mess?
It is surely not the job of Scotland to save England from itself.
'If Scotland becomes independent she will still be shackled to the rUK economically' - not necessarily by a long shot. The possibility of joining the EU and the possibility of attracting business from both the EU and from rUK are always on the table. And being actually part of the rUK as it embarks on its voyage into the completely unknown, with no chance of being heard in Westminster unless Scotland voted Tory, and even then with only a faint chance of influencing anything because England is far more populous and has more MPs, would be a far worse fate.

Who the heck is Gerry Gunster when he's up and dressed, you ask?
www.washingtonian.com/2016/06/29/five-questions-gerry-gunster-dc-strategist-brexit/
This article/interview made me angry. So much hypocrisy and cant, all so normalised.
I brought them the methodology and the science behind how best to win, based on my experience of running many ballot measure campaigns here in the U.S...
...I am a believer in the referendum process, which is one of the purest forms of democracy. I believe in the people’s right to decide their own destiny. And they have.
Humbug

www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/09/american-hired-brexit-eu-referendum-gerry-gunster
This is a pre ref article.

People are well able to get all riled up traditional enemies but the truth, the sordid 'methodology and the science behind how best to win', appears to be much more complex and nobody has been primed for it by decades of TV shows featuring political hucksters as the Bad Guys, and so it will be ignored.

Big thanks to the posters who included the brilliant Tom King and Siskind lists.

Eric Pickles now standing down. Wasn't he another noisy Leave supporter?

No Eric Pickles was a Remainer Tory in a Leave constituency. A difficult position to now hold, it seems. After the referendum he wrote on his blog that he was disappointed with the result, but he "wouldn't be much of an MP if I tailored my views to what was popular rather than what I actually think."

That old chestnut: are MPs delegates or representatives?

But he had always said he'd go at the next election; it just came sooner than he thought.

ericpickles.com/eu-referendum-result/

OK misjudged Pickles then. The answer should be that they do what they think is best for the country. It's just possible that a one time Remain voter might now think that Brexit is best, but as yet, I haven't seen any of them put up a convincing argument for it.

I agree Peregrina. I wonder if pressure is being put on Remainer Tories, or if they just think they can't honestly front the Leave position?

Stuart, Hannan, Farage, Carswell... such a surprise that none of these high profile Brexiters are standing for parliament. Cameron's example of fleeing once the situation got a bit sticky seems to be catching...

On R4 this morning they were talking about this idea that if the Tories get a huge majority they will then be able to go soft brexit. I just can't see any evidence for this at all. It comes across as the most hopeless type of wishful thinking. May has shown no evidence of wanting a softer brexit, their policies so far are pushing further and further to the right, and to top it all it increasingly seems like all the remainer conservatives are standing down (pushed or otherwise).

The bigger the Conservative majority the worse it is going to be in my view.

I think I agree bigly. Aside from Brexit, they'll be able to decimate health and education. I wonder what they'll say in their manifesto? They'll have to be careful. There seems to be a growing mood in the country for holding people to account for what they say and do. (Or is that just on this thread?!)

I wonder if pressure is being put on Remainer Tories Hester the trouble is pressure is on remainer MPs of both sides,with the 'election' of Mc Luskey, it's the same in Labour.
Delegates or representatives? Trotskyites and the alt right know what they want. As Crick points out here, party HQs have huge powers now.
@MichaelLCrick Apr 20
Rush to select candidates in this election means Cons & Lab HQs claim huge powers. Lib Dems have quietly picked lots of cands already

I keep being told the same thing, Bigly, but like you it seems hopelessly optimistic to think that that will be the case. Any Remain-leaning Tories who are thinking about standing in marginal seats or replacing those MPs who are stepping down, must feel incredibly demoralised by the events of the past few months so, imo, the party is likely to attract more swivel-eyeds rather than moderates.

I keep being told the same thing, Bigly, but like you it seems hopelessly optimistic to think that that will be the case. Any Remain-leaning Tories who are thinking about standing in marginal seats or replacing those MPs who are stepping down, must feel incredibly demoralised by the events of the past few months so, imo, the party is likely to attract more swivel-eyeds rather than moderates.

Winning her own, very large, mandate would give May the political clout for a May Brexit

• we don't know what kind of Brexit that would be,

whether she would be prepared to face down the Tory Ultras and make significant concessions to get the least damaging deal for the UK or face down the Tory Remainers, manufacturing & exporters to walk away with a WTO deal.

A big mandate won't affect what the EU offer,
but it decreases the chances of crashing out just because the UK govt couldn't agree its own position

I'm not sure how it helps avoid crashing out without a deal due to UK govt arrogance and incompetence though.

May needs people brave enough to give her facts, not delusions.
Sadly, she seems to have frightened off both public servants and business leaders from doing that.

So we need an effective Opposition to bring reality into the Brexit part of the Overton window, which is currently stuffed with fluffy unicorns.
< so let's hope JC is replaced asap after the GE >

I think we will hear it more and more as the Tories try to build an arguement for Remain voters to vote for them. It feels like a way to dupe us to vote Conservative in the hope it will be for the best in the end. It stinks and must be resisted!

The resistance Bigly bigly!
I look to the US for continued organisation and resistance: at local elections, against deportations etc. If US and brave Turkish resistance can do it............
Mc Luskey's election is the death knell for remain labour. But Coyne may be mounting a legal challenge.

Yes you'd think both Tories and Labour would want to woo the 48%. It's a lot of voters. Plus aren't the EU citizens allowed to vote this time? That's even more. Aren't they going to try and tempt them away from the Lib Dems with some promised morsels of comfort?

Alan Johnson: ‘Labour should be willing to work with other parties, through a coalition if necessary’

www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2017/apr/22/alan-johnson-interview-general-election?CMP=twt_gu

The govt will be totally occupied by Brexit for it's 5 year term and the public will probably be distracted by Brexit too.

However, a large mandate would also give May the power to make savage cuts from those groups who rarely vote Tory, to benefit those who mostly do, like the better off and pensioners.

I wonder if wee Ruth will be parachuted into one of those constituencies where the incumbent Tory is standing down? it would need to be a "safe" Tory seat though

After all, she's shown her loyalty by backing the rape clause and by seamlessly shifting from Remain to "Brexit means Brexit"

And she's more popular in England than she is in Scotland

Detailed YouGov figures breakdown:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulusuploads/document/04xxn42p3e/TimesResultss170419VIITrackersGEE_W.pdf
Page 2:

Sex makes no difference in whether votes prefer Tory or Labour

Social class income does: ABC1 are much more likely than C2DE to vote Tory
Usually even more pronounced if just looking at AB

Age makes a massive difference:

Age 65+: 56 % Tory, 11% Labour
Age 18-24: 15 % Tory, 28% Labour, far more DK

Hesterthrale - the EU citizens still can't vote They only have the vote in council & EU elections and Scottish Indyrefs

Rush to select candidates in this election means Cons & Lab HQs claim huge powers

This can backfire, when a popular local candidate fails to get the nomination. It's a possibility in Oxford East, for example.

I think May believes her own hype about the country coming together. I hope she is proved wrong, simply to destroy her attitude, but obviously the country does need to come together. It will require someone with considerably more skill than May has to achieve this.

Hester EU citizens are allowed to vote in each others' countries for EU elections, but not for GEs

Pretty I've heard that in the IndyRef the English voters living in Scotland were heavily against independence and may have been / will be a significant block against independence in Ref2.

Do you know of any stats that examined this ?