Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

prettybird thanks for reposting, signed.

I saw Ruth Davidson on Newsnight last night, pretty - the mask has definitely slipped .

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/28/ruth-davidson-tells-nicola-sturgeon-sit/

Ruth Davidson tells Nicola Sturgeon to sit down did you see this one?

I've signed too. Thanks pretty.

Possibly a very stupid question on the rape clause. But does it apply to only the third child? What happens if your first was due to rape then you have two with your new partner? If you have a kid via rape are you only allowed to make the difference up or be penalised?

Don't know Mitzy - I've wondered the same myself.

I suspect the answer would be that it doesn't matter how Child1 and Child2 are conceived - it's your choice to have a 3rd one - unless it's rape.

Never mind that people's circumstances can change after they've had 3 (or more) children or that blended families can and do result in more than 2 children in the new family unit

Kate Hoey @KateHoeyMP
Thanks to all who have asked me to stand as Vauxhall's Labour candidate once more. Pleased to confirm & look forward to a positive campaign

A LD prospective candidate for Vauxhall has already been making himself known on twitter advertising his Facebook page. I believe his name is George Turner and I suspect he'll get a fair amount of media attention and will be delighted at this announcement.

Motheroffourdragons - that polling has been quite consistent.

We'll get an accurate feel after 4 May - although the STV system might confound the results a bit. That plus the fact that people should be voting on local issues.

Second reply to Joey's tweet is this:

I'm asking you not to. I'm a local party member and want to vote for a candidate who shares at least some of my values

OUCH

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
Theresa May is reportedly on her way to East Anglia. Political journalists like us are not invited. This will be shape of the campaign.

Sorry - meant Hashi in my response re the order of children and whether they were result of rape. Just writing that statement down shows how dreadful it is.

I wonder if Douglas Carswell is not running in order to keep Arron Banks out. Banks always said he would run to unseat Carswell.

Can I ask a stupid question?

Do we know who is standing in which seats yet? If not, when will we?

I'm in a tricky seat tactically, I think - York Outer.

Tories got in from Lib Dems in 2010, but only by a few thousand votes. Lib Dems were second.

City of York itself is fairly strong Labour. Tories won again in 2015 by almost 50% - lib dems were obliterated but did stand a weak candidate. Labour second in 2015 but only 25% share of the vote.

York itself voted remain 58%.

Given they got almost 50% of the vote in 2015, what are the chance of toppling them this time round? Is it a 'safe' seat for them?

Just signed ✔️

I think this is the way this campaign will go now tbh - quite trumpesque in banning media etc

Carswell might well have outmanoeuvred Banks.

Banks only said he would stand because of a personal vendetta against Carswell. It was never clear who he would stand for - UKIP or his own new party.

In not standing, Carswell is saved from a potentially embarrassing situation where he is defeated AND he starves Banks of the oxygen of publicity he desperately craves and would get from a Carswell v Banks contest.

Don't also forget how hard it is to run an election campaign for Westminster as an independent. Few manage it successfully. Goldsmith couldn't even though he was popular and there was only really one other candidate in the by-election. Carswell would be up against Banks and a Tory candidate. I'm also not sure how he would fund it as an independent. Carswell's not Goldsmith in that department and he wouldn't have 'friends' in any party to back him up.

I suspect this latter reason is probably your most likely reason why Carswell isn't standing rather than to stop Banks getting in. Though, I suspect it will have come into his thinking.

Thanks pretty
I felt awful even needing to ask the question. I'd not even contemplated it as just the thought that a third child the result of rape was awful enough. But how penalised can you be by being raped ffs? Victimising victims further 😰

Ruth showing her true colours today at FMQs, refusing to condemn the rape clause and trying to turn it back on the SNP. Totally missing the point that this is an iniquitous UK wide policy , brought in by a Conservative Government with a tiny probably illegally achieved majority.

@MeanwhileScotia: Ruth showed her true colours at #FMQs https://t.co/4IZQebMQ3H

Sam Coates (of the Times) made a similar point to Christopher Hope on the World at One a few minutes ago. He is at the Jeremy Corbyn press event and thought the atmosphere towards the media was pretty hostile BUT, he added, Corbyn did take questions at the end of it and John McDonnell and other senior Labour MPs were available for interview afterwards. "Theresa May has a bit of catching up" was his conclusion.

ClashCityRocker, York Outer:

2015
CON 26477
LAB 13348
LD 6269
UKIP 5251
GREEN 2558

2010
CON 22912
LD 19224
LAB 9108
UKIP 1100
BNP 956

Leave 44.9%

Question 1:
Is there any chance of Lab winning here?
Based on 2015 and 2010 results. No. Unlikely. Where will those votes come from? They gained a lot of votes from the LD in 2015. Its unlikely they will retain them in a strongly remain constituency outside London. They'd need a significant number of 2015 UKIP/Tory/LD voters to have any chance whilst stopping disillusionment amongst their own ranks.

Question 2:
Is there any chance of the LD winning here?
Based on 2010 result, there is a very small outside chance. But still unlikely.

Problem is that the Cons are likely to lose a good number of votes to the LD, but that is simply likely to be merely replaced by those Kippers. I'd expect the Tories to still be in the range of getting over 40% of the vote for that reason.

The LD would need to regain all those 2010 votes they lost plus make gains from Lab and the Tories AND for 2015 Kippers to stay home and 2015 Conservatives/Kippers/Leavers to be too apathetic / fatigued to vote, for the LD to get even close. And they would need to get people to see that they were the alternative even though they were not second in 2015 as many tactical voters will go for the 2015 second place anyway.

The constituency was about where it should be in 2015 in terms of left wing / right wing vote compared with the EU ref result, so it doesn't look like it has much potential swing for a liberal pro-EU backlash to appear there.

I could of course be very wrong and something very expected might happen. A strong candidate might make a difference.

I think you are pretty much stuck with what you have I'm afraid. Either vote with your own convictions or decide which of the two scenarios above is more likely. Just don't not vote.

Sorry.

Red, can you do similar for me? Gower constituency. I fear it will go more Tory BUT I have read that although Swansea as a whole voted Leave, Gower was believed to be Remain (and the Tort is a Remainer)

Re the "Rape clause". It is the "mitigating measure" to the 2 child limit in TC/UC. If HH and the rest of Tory Lite Labour had not supported a 2 child limit because it was "popular on the doorstep" it may well have been quietly dropped as part of GO's TC climb down.

The irony is that the 2 child limit saves tiny amounts as there are very few cases of people actually having multiple DC for benefits. As Pretty points out it will also further disincentivise blended families which save the State money.

Phillip Hammond could win a lot of votes for the Tories if he comes up with a manifesto pledge to sort out the whole TC/UC mess.

ClashCityRocker - Further to Red's excellent analysis, both More United and Gina Miller's new group are going to identify seats that could be taken from the Tories and campaign on behalf of the progressive candidate that is most likely win. It sounds as if your constituency may not be identified as one that could be swung but keep an eye out and be prepared to vote tactically.

BestIsWest: Gower

2015 (ignoring the fringe parties)
CON 15862
Lab 15835
UKIP 4773
PC 3051
LD 1552
Green 1161

2010
Lab 16016
Con 13333
LD 7947
PC 2760
BNP 963
UKIP 652

50.17 % Leave Estimate.

Straight two horse race. Lab v Con.
Depends on how much people hate Lab / Con and vote tactically. And who turns out.

I think there perhaps is a little too much right wing leaning in 2015 compared to the ref result. So there is a potential for there to be a small backlash here but whether it will be offset by apathy and disillusionment is anyone's guess.

I do think the main effect of the referendum is going to be polarising of votes and where there are seats like this one it will end up meaning all the other parties take a hit. I wouldn't expect a LD fightback or a PC Welsh pride to really get much of boost.

I think Labour CAN win here, but a Con victory is more likely.

Three more MPs not standing again.
Jim Dowd - Labour (Lewisham West and Penge) Should stay Labour, but could get interesting. 2010 was close for second between LD and Cons who were both not terribly far behind Labour.
Fiona McTaggart - Labour (Slough) Could be tough for Labour to hold.
Rob Marris - Labour (Wolverhampton South West) Going blue barring a miracle.

Lewisham and Penge could be a very interesting one. It was late to gentrification, though pockets are pleasant enough, and is now a popular place for millennials to squeeze on to the housing ladder. It is one of those places that has become a locus for young people working in the City and West End to commute from.