Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Thatcher was a good few years younger than May when she took over as leader and while the party was in Opposition, so she had time on her side and had chance to get the measure of the party. May hasn't either of those things, and doesn't mix easily, so doesn't have an ear to the ground.

I was often struck at work how two people could sit next to each other and one person would know all the gossip for want of a better word, and their neighbour would be oblivious and complain that they were never told anything. Leaders do need an ear to the ground - some of the astounding rubbish which May has come out with, with a perfectly straight face, could not be said by someone who was clued up.

Various conservatives on Newsnight saying triple lock must go.
I'm a pensioner, (but not old, you understand), but I don't vote Tory anyway. In practice, a lot of people would think it fair, but it would depend where the money went. A lot of us are concerned about what is happening to our children, so if the money went to help their generation I suspect protests would be muted.

Pretty you are right that Tony Blair and the Yes Men and Women of Holyrood had started the job and the questioning the legitimacy of Gordon Brown as a UK Prime Minister because he was Scottish didn't help BUT without Nick Clegg GB may have got enough for a Lib/Lab pact and he would have pushed towards devomax. A Lib/Lab Government would not have given the imperative to get rid of the English Tories ruling Scotland. If Indyref1 had happened Labour would not have had to get into bed with the Tories to protect the Union. Labour would still be a force in Scotland and from my PoV I would rather have Labour in charge over all the UK and they need Scotland to do that. Scotland even Independent cannot run a Socialist agenda against Tory England without a crippling business exodus and brain drain.

On SNP prospects 2 of their number are suspended for impropriety so I wouldn't bet on their chances. Couple of marginals up for grabs for the Tories in the Borders. Couple of Lib marginals up for grabs in the N East. Likely split vote back to Tories in East Renf making it a 3 way fight with Labour.

MrsT deliberately destroyed the miners power base, because the miners had largely brought down the previous Tory govt of Ted Heath (in which she was Education Sec)

There was a lot of Tory paranoia, but it was based on some very bad decisions by a few trade unionists to use their muscle dor political purposes.
Anyway, the Tories went into overkill and have long since hammered most unions into impotence, which has seriously weakened the position of ordinary workers.

Even in the 1980s excitement, the Fail didn't revet to its 1930s fascist mode.
And Maggie was a genuinely strong and talented leader who didn't need to demonise democratic dissent. She faced up personally to that opposition at home or abroad swinging the infamous cement handbag
She was imoressive at PMQs and sometimes awesome im adversity.

The bite back was initially against Cameron and Osborne - Osborne's austerity deserves a mention in Brexit causes.

Things would look very different with strong Labour opposition.

Large sections of the population are totally brainwashed by the Leave campaign from which May has basically picked up the torch.

Sadly the bite back is utterly self-defeating. They just don't know it yet.

Whether the Tories survive long term depends how hard Brexit is.

Newsnight just blamed TB for the Labour Party's troubles. He got power but the price was throwing the core vote under the bus and they have had enough paraphrasing.

^'On SNP prospects 2 of their number are suspended for impropriety so I wouldn't bet on their chances.'*

One being Natalie McGarry? Funnily enough she announced her pregnancy on Twitter today.

Yes, Natalie McGarry (Glasgow East) and Michelle Thomson (Edinburgh West). Edinburgh West is going to be a key LibDem target - they held it from I think '97 until 2015, and the Scottish Parliament constituency that covers lots (all? lots?) of it went LibDem last year. Don't think Glasgow East is going to be as much of an issue for them because it was a Lab-to-SNP swing last time, but my guess is that they'll boot both McGarry and Thomson rather than taking them back and field new candidates in both.

What is different to '83 is that there was then no great national swindle cause that united right and left. The Tories picked up floating voters and centre left who were fed up of the Heath. But they didn't pick up far left. Whereas really far left support Brexit. They will be the first to kick hard against the Tories when the shit hits.

Newsnight just blamed TB for the Labour Party's troubles.

Well, he was Tory Lite although they did do some good things. But at one time Tories had compassion and could be perfectly civilised people, but you have to go back a few decades.

Foot sent Labour into the wilderness for 14 years
Blair won 3 GEs by occupying the centre.
Then Labour moved leftwards and lost GEs - UK voters are centre, at the moment considerably right of centre

Now the disastrous Corbyn has delighted its activists - and condemned Labour to probably 10-15 years out of power.
The Liberals could never have destroyed labour, but Corbyn is doing his best.

In 2010, the LibDems naturally didn't want to ally with a Labour Party that had lost the GE - against the will of the people, of course ! - it would have gone down badly with the voters.

Now, the English Nationalists are firmly in control of the UK.
Especially since some Lexiters in England may do as you suggested on the other GE thread and vote Tory to push Brexit hard.
Labour's only chance in 2022 is if Brexit is a real disaster.

The SNP would be doing incredibly well to retain 56 of the 59 Scottish seats, but longterm, even if not in this GE, 45 seats looks more likely.
Or indeed, a Scottish electorate getting angrier and angrier with Westminster until the dam bursts and they vote for Independence.

The Tories would blame the EU and the Remainers if Brexit goes badly.

May is the obv sacrificial goat available if need be.

Then the sparkly new Tory leader comes in, free of all blame and the public rallies round:
worked for Major, worked for May herself.
It's a brilliant Teflon trick they keep pulling.

In contrast, Labour blame themselves for a world financial crash, the pensions crisis and the US wars for oil ( which the Tories supported far more eagerly at the time)

The Times tweeting that they'll be announcing details of a political defection tomorrow. Wonder who it'll be...

Only Carswell.

Sam Coates Times‏Verified account
@SamCoatesTimes

Following
More
Exc: Former socialist Labour MP Bob Marshall-Andrews has defected to the Lib Dems calling his former party a "political Basket-case"

The Tories would blame the EU and the Remainers if Brexit goes badly.

They will but there's a point beyond which that doesn't work.

Yay.

calling his former party a "political Basket-case"

He ain't wrong!

Theresa May's message to the country:

Sectarian pacts for general election being discussed in NI.

The DUP are talking about Unionist pacts with UUP. Not to put a candidate in opposition to each another in agreed constituencies in order to maximise effect of Unionist vote. UUP leader Robin Swann saying he is open to talks. It would be interesting to say the least. After the referendum and assembly elections. Will everything else pale into insignificance at the altar of the Union? The DUP won't want it to be about Brexit. Only the DUP promoted brexit.

Margaret Ritchie of SDLP is ruling out similar pacts on their part (implied with other Nationalists, especially Sinn Féin), saying they don't do pacts. Mind you, maybe there will be an unofficial anti- brexit pact for non-Unionist parties. SDLP and Alliance. No one would mention SF officially.

It is a less than ideal atmosphere for Stormont talks. May couldn't have cared less, I would (and do) think.

If only that letter didn't read true, Kaija.

Political basket-case

Then the sparkly new Tory leader comes in, free of all blame and the public rallies round:
worked for Major, worked for May herself.
It's a brilliant Teflon trick they keep pulling.

It only worked short term for Major. There was a suspicion in the 1992 election of dirty tricks, but nothing was proved. 1997, the Tories were hammered, and were out in the wilderness for 13 years, and would have been for longer, if there hadn't been a coalition.

Ha, May's message is a spoof! I believed it for a moment.