Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

And the deadline for a decision on the prosecution is June 8th.

So Theresa May must hope that few, if any, of her MPs are charged.

Assuming that the Tory Central Office know exactly which seats they were committing the fraud in, they will know which MPs are likely to be charged, and as I say, they will conveniently decide that it's time to stand down.

Not implicated in the fraud, but Andrew Smith of East Oxford is standing down because he's 66, so would be 71 at the next election, but meanwhile, Ken Clarke, 10 years older, intends to carry on. I wonder about Dennis Skinner - he is the same age as Clarke.

I don't know think a judge has the power to order disqualification in such circs from future public office
The Election Commission could overturn disputed 2015 seats, but that is irrelevant with a new GE

Legal opinion I've read elsewhere is thatc criminal convictions are very unlikely and jail sentences - which would force an MP to resign - almost unthinkable.

It would be scandalous in normal times You're probably right, but look at the timing for the deadline for the prosecution, I think May was pushed, and this might have been the reason. 20/30 by elections in lib dem threatening seats during Brexit would have been sticky. And back to the old 'nasty party' tags that she/ Timothy invented. It wasn't just the election expenses, there was this sad story linked to the Battle Bus.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11886622/Former-Tory-hopeful-at-centre-of-bullying-claims-after-young-activist-dies.html

The extreme embarassment such cases would normally cause is, as we see, almost non-existent.
The voters can't punish the Tories, because they have no alternative govt to vote for

I wasn't implying that there would be by-elections because 20 backbenchers are festering in jail - I meant that there would have to be by-elections following any successful prosecutions (wouldn't there?).

I daresay those MPs will be encouraged to fall on their swords now - spend more time with their gardens and what not.

I am keeping a close eye out for gardeners.

It will be clear May chickened out

Disagree. The public don't like politicians squabbling and attacking each other. May will have a lot of nice sanitised photoshoots and will appear above all that whilst the other parties indulge in the scrapping.

She'll look better to the people she's trying to appeal to. You know people who don't like politics on their tv, or never had tv debates in their day. People with perfect lawns and who wash their cars every sunday.

That's the plan. People who even remotely perceive her as chickening out won't be entertaining the idea of voting for her anyway. They will be younger and slightly hostile to May from the outset and unlikely to be swayed by her in a debate.

It will work. As long as they keep her away from photo shoots with children.

I do look forward to the NHS one with the fake smiles all round.

Tonight there is a video of her motorcade leaving Bolton and a man gets out of the car to give her lots of Vs. I think we might see a lot of that going on over the next few weeks.
twitter.com/RWindscheffel/status/854747069898162179

Overall expect May's gilded cage where only approved people come within 50 feet.

According to Channel 4, there are only 18 days left for CPS to press charges.

Give that Bolton man a medal

Yes, and give the police outrider who stops to tell him off a thump .

"Tory MPs face being prosecuted for electoral fraud while they are fighting the upcoming general election campaign
The CPS confirmed it must announce whether it will prosecute before 8 June"
lala that's the Indie headline, but you're right, Channel 4 news has it at 18 days

Even worse defeat for Labour than 1983 ?

1983 was the first time they lost the wc vote, especially the skilled C2, who voted 47 to 26% for the Tories.

"According to the Guardian/ICM polling data going into the 2015 general election,
Ed Miliband enjoyed the support of C2 voters by a margin of 45% to 25% over the Conservatives.

This week’s polling data shows that Labour has lost its support among this crucial section of the working class, with
42% of them saying they will now vote Conservative and only 29% intending to vote Labour.

The current overall polling figures imply a 7% swing to the Conservatives, which could see
Labour’s 229 MPs reduced to just 165 and the Tories gaining 66 seats to deliver a majority of more than 140 seats."

That would be MASSIVE id it really happens
and as in 1983, is the risk when choosing a leader the voters won't accept.

Data was from this:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/will-theresa-may-really-kill-labour-off-in-general-election-2017-1983

Labour are in a far worse mess this time:

In 1983, the leader Michael Foot was highly talented, could lead and knew where he was going.
The public just didn't want to follow that far left.

This GE, Labour have an abysmal leader, are in chaos and civil war AND have the massive problem of Brexit - not knowing what the hell to do about it, so running in circles in headless chicken mode.

I agree with BigChoc May's avoiding debate because she's shit.

Sturgeon would wipe the floor with her.

I also agree Labour has never had it so bad.

I've decided today I can only vote LD even if that means my vote doesn't count. I can't vote, even tactically, for an imbecile and a party that doesn't know whether it's coming or going.

Even worse defeat for Labour than 1983 ?

And having a Tory who chooses flags and nationalist bile to beat up on the opposition. Thatch used her mad white scarf, a tank and all the poor souls who had to fight in the Falklands. And she'd already sold the miners to the US Ian Mac Gregor.

She even had her own 'enemy within' monicker for the working class and trade unionists.

If it ain't broke..........

Vicious as she was, Thatcher had a brain and she listened to economists.

Her economic miracle disadvantaged half the country but it did work for some. Brexit works for no-one.

NancyWake 1983 was very comparable and Labour got trounced. For the Falklands compare with Brexit. The country was then in the grip of fierce nationalism. There are parallels, and the SDP had destroyed Labour vote by then too. Again you could replace the SDP effect of the 1980s with the SNP now.

Her economic miracle disadvantaged half the country but it did work for some on that we are going to have to agree to disagree.
But her decimation of the mining and steel industries is why Brexit happened, I think. And it was a personal political vendetta, against the miners not an economic principle.

Vicious as she was, Thatcher had a brain and she listened to economists.
She was also quite well respected by some scientists at least, having been one herself.

Her economic miracle disadvantaged half the country but it did work for some. Brexit works for no-one.
I agree it worked for certain groups of the population although it was a personal vendetta against the miners. It's hard to see which of the working class and lower middle class groups Theresa May's plans, such as they are, will work for even though people think she's popular.

BBC News is just running a report saying that it is the young people who are driving the success of Le Pen and want out of the EU.

Misti - would you like to comment as that isn't the impression I'd got.

The Falklands was gratuitous grandstanding but it was successful on its own nationalistic terms - Brexit is just a fuck up.

You disagree that Thatcher's economic miracle didn't benefit the better off and the SE? That's why the Tories stayed in power so long.

I entirely agree that the destruction of manufacturing industries is key to Brexit, it's one of Thatcher's bequests to the nation. As is the deregulation of financial services and its contribution to the financial crisis, which also plays its part in Brexit.

30 years of ignoring the provinces is bound to bite back at some point.

Various conservatives on Newsnight saying triple lock must go.