Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Bermondsey was always a strange one (I lived there for a while, and my ex was from a huge Bermondsey clan) and it was dyed in the wool Labour party territory. Simon Hughes though was an amazing constituency MP who commanded loyalty and respect from local people whatever their party loyalty was. It took the coalition to undermine that, and Simon Hughes was particularly vulnerable because a lot of his voters were Labour at heart. It has seen a lot of gentrification though and Southwark was over 70% Remain. The Richmond Park effect will definitely spread to the west London seats, it was ithe most advanced in the increased affluence that had sent seats to the Conservatives. Tania Matthias was clearly shocked to beat Vince Cable even last time around, the Mansion Tax did for him as much as the coalition, and she has not been even remotely as good a constituency MP as well as very wet in parliament. I just hope Vince Cable does not mention the bloody mansion tax again......

There may be several elderly MPs of all parties who had informed their local patty they woukdn't stand at the next GE, assuming of course with the FPA that it would be in 2020.

Some might decide to continue until 2022 (if they win their seats) and if they feel they need to fight for their beliefs

• that would be more likely Remainers (Clarke) than Leavers (Hoey) simply because Brexit is going to happen (unless real economic disaster looms. And unless the govt notices it)

David Cameron was much seen in these parts during the last election campaign, and it was a real target, you couldn't go to the garden centre without him holding court in the geraniums and his official convoy was frequently dashing down the A316. There is no sense of the same focus and energy from the Conservatives, especially given it is coming from the Libdems. The local Conservatives all looked absolutely gutted as they accompanied Zac as he left the count, I wonder if they have given up on West London?

So Simon Hughes has been forgiven for a shameful - and totally hypocritical - homophobic campaign against Labour candidate Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey byelection that originally won the seat for the LibDems.

BigChoc I suspect that the old school Labour voters in Bermondsey I encountered would not have had an issue with that . I cannot remember specifics but do remember their loyalty was underpinned with lots of tales of Hughes going above and beyond in his efforts on behalf of local people.

Yay! Am really glad if Ken standing again, was tweeted earlier he was not going to, but widely reported he will now. G'wan Clarkey! overinvested already

Good ol Dennis
😀

Bigchoc Simon Hughes is now openly bi-sexual.

Good old TM eh?. Brexit means Brexit, but electoral fraud means nothing at all

Thanks for the reply re London RTB. Interesting and makes sense. I guess for Centrist Remainers it may come down to the old question of wallet vs conscience. I agree local London Labour MPs have a more solid base than elsewhere.

Just been waxing lyrical on my loathing for Nick Clegg. As Sheffield voted Brexit and Labour came second last time, contrary to Bigchoc's earlier slight generalisation if I lived in Sheffield Hallam voting Lexit Labour would be the natural choice.

'Good old TM eh?. Brexit means Brexit, but electoral fraud means nothing at all'

Looking after the Tories no matter what means looking after the Tories no matter what.

Howabout Sheffield Constituency Estimates:

Sheffield Central: 30.4% leave
Sheffield Hallam: 35.9% leave
Sheffield Heeley: 57.6% leave
Sheffield Brightside: 61.4% leave
Sheffield South East 66.5% leave

Not sure how you get to saying Clegg isn't representing his constituency. Sheffield as a whole voted to leave. Sheffield Hallam didn't necessarily. In fact it looks a lot like it was very strongly remain.

I meant to mention before, but on the march I was speaking to some people very actively involved in both the lib dem and labour parties. The discussion on Clegg and tuition fees came up and the lib dems all felt fairly unified on one point. Clegg was shafted. Not by the Tories though, by themselves. Clegg had tried to persuade the members not to vote that onto manifesto they said, but they didnt listen and voted it on so he rolled with it. Also probably explains why he rolled over on it somewhat easier than expected.

What was it someone said about Tory Remain MPs concluding it is better to fight outside parliament than inside. GO "Without fear or favour we will speak for London. And also speak for the values that I have espoused as a chancellor and as a member of parliament for 16 years, which are the openness, the tolerance, the diversity that I think makes Britain a great country. That’s what I’ve fought for all my life and for now I’m not going to be fighting for those things in the House of Commons. I will be fighting for them in the seat of a great British newspaper."

GO's seat is about to be abolished anyway so it was somewhat academic.

The tuition fee thing was a real tragedy- a policy that to all intents and purposes is very similar to a graduate tax was sold as a fee by the right (as they did not want to be seen to be raising taxes) and opposed as such by labour as it was an easy target to beat the government with.

BigChoc I know SH's original campaign was disgraceful but, even though it was a relatively short time ago, being gay was definitely not anything like as acceptable as it is now and he has said that he regrets it. He was the MP for many of my patients in my last job and I agree that he was brilliant and used to go above and beyond his duty for his constituents. He massively helped one of my patients who had arrived as an unaccompanied minor from Liberia. He couldn't go home because he had no documentation which the Home Office agreed was the case but they wouldn't give him leave to remain in the uk so he was just in limbo - existing on £30 pw food vouchers and a bus pass and living in a hostel infested with mice and cockroaches in Essex. Not able to claim benefits but not able to work which he desperately wanted to do. SH took on his case, paid him to do some work for him and even put him up in a hotel for a while when he was in despair about going back to his hostel.
I got an email from this patient last year to tell me that he's just completed an accountancy degree which is amazing considering he came here having left school aged 8 and not speaking any English. I wish there were more MPs a bit like him who took it seriously rather than taking on 6 lucrative consulting jobs and turning up to HoC once a week. I suspect he's a dying breed though

I didn't say NC wasn't representing his constituency. He certainly wasn't and never will be representing me. If the UKIPers lend their vote to Labour in Sheffield Hallam they can get rid of him.

Without him there would have been no coalition, no Austerity GO, no Universal credit, no tuition fees, no EVEL, no Labour collapse in Scotland, no Tory majority in 2015, no EU referendum.

mother again, that's something coming from the members, they've canvassed on whether they should rule out coalitions/work with other parties and the answer was no so long as there can be an alignment.

'no Labour collapse in Scotland'

Not sure Clegg is to blame for this.

drwitch it is only a graduate tax if you are a middle earner and may well keep mothers out the work force as it is an additional cost to balance with childcare. If you are a low earner it becomes irrelevant in which case why not leave it as a grant? If you are a stinking rich high earner you pay it off out of first 5 years' salary if parents didn't stump up in the first place. Why didn't anyone suggest further means testing of maintenance loans instead or a couple of % extra on higher rate tax, since the underlying assumption is that all graduates will earn back their investment in fees?