Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

I don't think they should have ruled out pact with Labour, however I understand why - they want to be genuine opposition at the very least and Labour are failing miserably in this regard.

The thing is, the Lib Dem members make the policy, it's not dictated top down. I think it's extremely unlikely that they will fall for the Tory charm another time.

Question: Have the LDs ruled out a coalition with Labour or Jeremy Corbyn?

I've seen it phrased both ways. Is it definitely one and the same thing or is there a difference?

[without Clegg there would be...] no Labour collapse in Scotland

I think Labour were already doing a pretty good job of collapsing well before Clegg: lost power to the SNP in Holyrood in 2007 (SNP Minority Government); allowed SNP to become a majority government in 2011 (in a parliament designed not to have majorities, they managed to break the d'Hondt system); and even though the voting system corrected in 2016 (SNP had won too many list seats in 2011 which is why they ended up with "more" than they should have; that re-balanced in 2016 with them winning more constituency seats and the list MSPs providing the appropriate balance according to the electorate with the other parties), they had fallen so low in voters' estimation that they are now behind the Tories who still only got 22% of the vote

There is a lot you can blame/praise Clegg for (delete as appropriate ) but the Labour rout in Scotland is not one of them.

red It sounds to me more like Corbyn. He's been described as toxic, not the Labour party themselves.

Hashi That's interesting about Clegg and tuition fees. I voted LD in 2010 having always voted Labour and after the fees debacle, I swore I'd never vote for them again and felt really betrayed. I still believe he should have tried a bit harder and I would have accepted no increase in fees as the LDs acting as a moderating influence. It just looked a bit shit to go from campaigning on a pledge to abolish fees to seemingly just roll over to accepting massively increasing them.
However, I am prepared to put that to bed if the LDs can do anything to prevent a train crash Brexit. I think that Clegg was basically naive and he has said that he just didn't account for how completely ruthless the Tories could be.

I feel (and voted) exactly the same way misshoolie

miss Ironically in the aftermath of the ref I was all up for voting Labour after swearing never to do so again after Blair. Then they collapsed

Surely JC can't stay on after the GE!?

Not even he has that much hubris surely?
clutches at straws

Marking place.
I'm not sure I have the stomach for this election but can't pretend it's not happening.

Have been a life long Labour voter and still a member but not a Corbyn fan.

Would really like to vote Plaid but I'm in the UK's most marginal constituency and very torn.

Bladders I honestly wouldn't put it past him. He is utterly delusional. He'll be like one of those old high court judges who absolutey refused to retire and were wheeled out in an incontinence pad drooling and talking gibberish to preside over a murder case

Tory strategy is to go for the idea of the 'coalition of chaos'.

This doesn't necessarily hold water:

1. The LDs in the coalition government with the CONs was not chaotic. In comparison to the current government it was positively uneventful.
2. This is precisely why the LDs will say they won't have a coalition with Labour under Corbyn as there has been the left v right wing problems which they won't want to repeat.
3. If the LDs were able to be the kingmaker again it (and it is unlikely) one of their red lines could be the leadership of Corbyn for precisely this reason. The party policies they can work with, but not necessarily individuals.
4. They are trying to attract 'Blairites' fleeing the Labour divisions. Why on earth would you say you would hold up a Corbyn lead Labour for this reason as a junior partner. Corbyn is too stubborn to do deals and isn't pragmatic.The LD Con coalition only worked because both sides were pragmatic and not stubborn even though they didn't like it. Plus Clegg/Cameron had a very good working relationship.
5. In terms of any coalition it would be down to the party members rather than the leader because of the structure of the party. That works for both Lab and Cons.
6. Hard to see how a Tory / LD coalition would work this time either. Its not the personalities that are the issue here but the policies. And it is difficult to see how May would work with anyone in partnership.
7. If the eventuality did arise, then we will not get a quick government formation. I'd expect more drawn out (and public) negotiations.
8. I don't think we would get the same scenario again as last time. More likely we would have a minority Con government which would have to seek support from LDs, Lab, SNP etc on individual issues. It could give the LDs effectively more power than in coalition.

This is what the Conservatives don't want you to think of as a possibility as it might be what a lot of people are actively hoping for. Instead they want to attract votes like they did in the last GE. Telling they are trying to use the same strategy.

Thing is there are a lot of people who voted Con in 2015 because they wanted another coalition government. They were not quite prepared for full on Tory. Will they fall for the same strategy?

"Why Tory MPs believe they may not win a general election landslide
The chance of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister may appear too small for a "fear factor" to aid the Conservatives"
.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/why-tory-mps-believe-they-may-not-win-general-election-landslide

Remembering my history reading, it is so interesting whom May and the Tory tabloids are copying:

“We are fulfilling the will of the people. . . And we shall crush the saboteurs.”

Lenin, January 1918.

Bannon.

BCF as in Bannon is allegedly a Lenin admirer. And Banks who wants to destroy tory party.

Gove is also of the school of thought of rebuilding can only be done after you've burnt the existing structures down.

Gisela Stuart is standing down.

Wonder why that could be.

Good riddance.

I think that Corbyn will be finished after this election, but how many votes Labour lose, I wouldn't like to guess. I suspect they might lose them in places where it doesn't matter anyway.

Gisela Stuart is standing down.

Some good news - she did enough damage and then started whinging afterwards.

Labour deservedly "lost" Scotland due to their years of neglect, incompetence and corruption there.

Scotland was ripe for the picking and then along came an attractive alternative.
It's great that the Scottish electorate had that choice available.

I'm a fan of Mattin Baxter's 2D mapping, because imo it is very suited to our Brexit-dominated politics
See pics.

Scotland is clearly Left / Internationalist with little opportunity for Left / British Nationalist or Right / anything !
I'm not sure the Liberals have much chance of regaining seats they lost to the SNP, because they both appeal to Left / Internationalist, but the SNP are a bigger party

In fact the SNP have far more members, 120k, in Scotland, than the LibDems have in the entire UK, about 85k today.

The Tories only have about 150k members across the UK
So, NS probably is the first choice of more members of her party than "accidental leader" May would be of hers.
That's partly what gives NS her personal confidence.
Why she doesn't chicken out of TV debates

Corbyn is already a Zombie Leader
Difficult to get rid of zombies.

He won't stand down willingly until the party change the rules to enable another hard left leader to be nominated.
Which would gift the following GE to the Tories too, regardless of how Brexit turns out.

The buggers must be skipping for joy:
no matter how badly they screw up, they can rely on Labour to screw worse