Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

People who voted UKIP in 2015 are more numerous than people who voted Green or Plaid Cymru or even Lib Dem.

That was then. Since then, we have seen what an absolute shower of shit they all are - they only have a handful of prominent people and they spend their time fighting themselves. Similarly the Lib Dems were at a low point during the last election, but a 5000 plus increase in members does not normally happen in one day.

Think of the 100,000 who marched on 25th March. The BBC did its best not to report it, but it didn't mean that we weren't there. This was after a certain amount of divisiveness in the week running up to the march, as to whether it was on or off. The question is, how will these people vote and where are their votes going to be spread?

David Davis is on TV at the moment.

I'm not sure the TV is going to survive the next few weeks

I shant be watching tv
I shall stay here and remain a bit sane

330 posts in less than 24 hours. I hope the Red is up for a new thread every three days, it will save a lot of TV screens being kicked in and radios thrown out of windows.....

DB was saying much the same as you yesterday Misti - what must a Civil War be like, just thinking of the hatred that the Referendum has stirred up and split families?

It's not just the referendum though: it's the behaviour of the government and the press post-referendum, attempting to frame dissent as treason.

My father voted leave; he's not a "liberal leaver" though he was once a liberal party councillor, he has a small government, anti-euro stance with which I have some sympathy (basically the same position as Richard North comes from and as most of you know I have some time for this. My dad has similar opinions without being such an asshole about them ).

ron IKWYM. Yesterday I found out about the election at a children's party and I immediately starting swearing loudly. DH was quite alarmed. Thankfully the children didn't speak English.

How dare they ignore and disenfranchise the younger generations?! Government of the older wealthy people by older wealthy people for older wealthy people.

I hope all the new posters from yesterday stick around.

Newest addition to the no standing list is Iain Wright Labour MP for Hartlepool.

I quite fancy UKIP for this seat anyway so not having an incumbent to fight against will please them greatly.

I genuinely think UKIP will get this seat so keep an eye on who they stand here. It will be interesting to see where Paul Nuttalls throws down his hat.

Placemarking (altho this looks to fill up fast) and interesting intervention from Tony Blair:

Former Labour leader Tony Blair has urged voters to back candidates from any party which opposes Brexit amid speculation that he will campaign with the Liberal Demcorats at the election.

In an unprecedented 1,200 word statement last night, Mr Blair urged voters to pressure candidates to commit to holding “the Government properly to account in the interests of the country. This should cross party lines”.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/tony-blair-could-share-pro-eu-stage-tim-farron-election-campaign/

Full statement here - off to read institute.global/news/damage-will-be-huge-if-we-end-brexit-any-cost

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/greens-urge-labour-and-lib-dems-to-form-electoral-pact-to-defeat-tories?CMP=twt_gu]]
It works for the LDs to think about this i think but I'm not sure they will. Labour won't

www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200001/cmhansrd/vo010118/debtext/10118-11.htm#10118-11_spnew3

From Hansard 2001.

Mrs. Theresa May (Maidenhead): I beg to move,

That this House views with deep concern the crisis of teacher shortages which is hitting schools across the country and which has led to some schools operating a four day week, children being sent home early, increased class sizes and the use of non-specialist and unqualified staff; deplores the Government's complacency in the face of this crisis; notes that many teachers are leaving the profession because of the increased red tape and bureaucratic burdens imposed by this Government; recognises that the teacher shortages are damaging standards in schools; and calls on the Government to revive the teaching profession by getting rid of the excessive bureaucratic burdens faced by teachers, setting schools free and letting teachers teach.

As I start this debate, I would like to pay tribute to the teachers and non-teaching staff in our schools who, today, are having to work even harder in the face of difficult circumstances to ensure that children receive as good an education as possible, given the problem of teacher shortages faced by schools throughout the country. Our debate takes place against the backdrop of a crisis that has all but crippled our education system. In all parts of the country, schools are facing massive problems in recruiting and retaining qualified teachers. However, that is only the tip of the iceberg for, just as worrying, is the impact that the crisis is having on the quality of education that children receive. Behind the headlines, teacher shortages are having a damaging effect on standards in our schools. There is an immediate crisis in teacher supply, but there is also a crisis in the quality of education which our hard-pressed teachers can provide.
We know what the Government's response will be from what they have been saying over the past few weeks. First, they will tell us that there is no crisis, as the Secretary of State did at Education questions last week, when he said:

There is a problem, but not a crisis.--[Official Report, 11 January 2001; Vol. 360, c. 1220.]

I suppose that we should be grateful for small mercies. The week before, on 7 January, the Prime Minister said on "Breakfast with Frost" that

in the vast bulk of this country, this is not the great problem.

Of course, it is just the sort of problem that the Prime Minister has refused to debate on television with my right hon. Friend the Leader of the Opposition. First, the Government say it is not a problem, and then it is a problem, but not a crisis. I wonder what we are going to be told this week? Perhaps the problem is a little bit bigger or has become a little local difficulty. It may evento use a word that is favoured by new Labourbe a challenge.
It is no good the Government claiming that the problem is merely being whipped up by the Opposition. In a letter

"It works for the LDs to think about this i think but I'm not sure they will. Labour won't"

I asked my Lib Dem MP this question a few months ago. He said it couldn't happen unless it was under the Lib Dem name. Which seems unlikely.

Nick clegg going to stand

I do wonder if we're going to see a few Lab MPs jumping ship to LD shortly. Any bets?

Ken's going!
Conservative MP Ken Clarke to stand down at #GE17, missing out on 50 years in Parliament.

twitter.com/CapX/status/854345177154166784

I've heard other rumblings of an alliance (e.g. the rumours following Nick Clegg talking with Tony Blair, NC sitting beside Keir Starmer in HoC) but I can't see JC signing up for it dilution of the idealogicical pure stance

The next 50 days are going to be quite something, aren't they?

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*

To be very clear: PM needs 434 MPs to vote in favour of the motion "that there shall be an early parliamentary general election"...
... an abstention is effectively a vote against the GE on these terms...PM then have to or get someone else to table no confidence motion
Id have thought the political theatre of forcing a PM to table a no confidence motion in herself, might have tempted the Opposition, but no
E.g. Corbyn could've said: happy to negotiate terms for Lab to vote for GE, but if PM wants to unilaterally, confidence mechanism available

This^ is why everyone thinks Corbyn is shit. In a nutshell. Even if they like his policies.

order-order.com/2017/04/18/labour-chaos-no-slogan-key-seats-list-or-campaign-budget/
Labour Have No Slogan, Key Seats List Or Campaign Budget

And this^^

Yesterday there was a debate going on about whether sitting Labour MPs should be deselected or not. I believe one of the unions put pay to the suggestion early on because most of the campaign time would have been consumed by this and would have made the party look even more disorganised and not united. The idea was being taken seriously until then though.

And implications for the new speaker:
order-order.com/2017/04/19/snap-election-blows-speaker-race-wide-open/

Ben Riley-Smith‏*@benrileysmith*

Projected seats from poll of polls:
Tories 375
Labour 189
SNP 55
Lib Dems 8
Ukip 0

Tory majority: 100

Riley-Smith is Telegraph. I do not expect the result to look like this.

Vincent McAviney @Vinny_LBC
Gisela Stuart MP refuses to endorse her own leader Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister on #R4Today, suggests PM better to deliver Brexit!

Vince Cable (standing again!) says no alliance with Labour.

Sorry to see Ken going, but I was sure that he would go at the next election anyway.

I am not sure what to think about the GE. On one hand I am so happy that I can vote for an anti brexit candidate, I want my voice heard again, but I fear the tories will just get a larger majority and brexit will continue on its disasterous course.

I am also musing my constituency. It is so tory it is untrue and our MP is hard brexit etc, but it was in the top 5 of voting remain consitutencies. I would love to think he could get unseated but it probably won't happen.

I've been wondering the same 53rdway

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/what-snap-election-means-tory-10250515
What the snap election means for Tory Election Fraud

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-ill-prepared-for-post-brexit-future-due-to-under-investment-in-skills-cipd-warns_uk_58f71ce7e4b05b9d613e6be8?
UK ‘Ill-Prepared’ For Post-Brexit Future Due To Under-Investment In Skills, CIPD Warns
The country is ‘sleep-walking’ towards a low-value economy.

Analysis from the institute found that 16-24 year olds from England and Northern Ireland are ranked in the bottom four OECD countries for numeracy and literacy skills.

The UK’s young people also came in last when the computer problem-solving skills of 16-24 year olds in 19 countries were assessed.

Vince Cable tweeted the local website yesterday at 3pm. It's not just about Brexit. "I plan to lead fight back to recapture Twickenham for Lib Dems. Brexit. Heathrow. School cuts. Social care. Plenty to campaign on."