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Brexit

Westminstenders: And so it begins

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/03/2017 08:30

Promises made that can not be kept.

We have already fallen at the first stumbling block: the desire for parallel talks on exit and future relationship that May wanted has been rejected. Not that this is a surprise seeing as we were told this.

This isn't two years of negotiations for a good deal. Forget any suggestions that it is. It's two years of damage limitation and domestic pr.

For both the UK and EU.

I do believe that May's attitude - which seemed to be more friendly in her speech and letter yesterday - has burnt all our bridges.

This talk of the world needing the EU's 'liberal democracy' isn't aimed at the EU though. Her use of the words that produced uproar in the HoC yesterday was deliberate. Why use it? It was always going to produce a reaction.

When May says she will have a consensus at home to achieve this goal one of two things must happen: to prove just how much we need the EU to make a political reversal possible at the expense of her head or to vilify the EU to a point that Remainers suddenly change their mind.

To get a good deal for the UK she can not satisfy her hard line Brexiteers. It is impossible purely because to do otherwise is like breaking the laws of physics. Trade is done mostly with who you are closest too. This is the inescapable truth. We are leaving the EU but not Europe as keeps being pointed out.

If we want to trade we have to accept EU regulations. If we do not, we do not trade. Rules we can now no longer influence by must obey.

We can not reduce immigration. We have had control of non-Eu immigration and that is not going down due to skills shortages. To combat this schools are getting less money.

In terms of sovereignty and British parliament we just gave that away. The 'Great' Repeal Act is a power grab by the executive. It seems to give the powers of the monarch to Mrs May and take them away from parliamentary scrutiny. At the same time we are forced to become beholden to Trump's America. A man who screws people for a living and has not a shred of honour.

Using security as our bargaining chip misses the obvious. If we do not cooperate we endanger Brits abroad and ourselves domestically. Are we really prepared to stop?

The opportunities of Brexit Britain are bleak. This will be normalised.

Good luck folks. We are gonna need it.

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Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 31/03/2017 10:39

politicalscrapbook.net/2017/03/eu-leader-we-dont-need-to-punish-britain-youre-doing-it-yourselves/#more-62908
EU LEADER: WE DON’T NEED TO PUNISH BRITAIN – YOU’RE DOING IT YOURSELVES

Tusk is generally the friendly face to UK rather others who are less sympathetic to us.

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RedToothBrush · 31/03/2017 10:42

Faisal Islam:
Significant that Spain has succeeded in getting Gibraltar on the draft guidelines: Spain has veto on exit deal applying to Gibraltar
"An agreement on future relationship between the Union and the UK can only be concluded once the UK has become a third country" - guidelines
--- so this rather suggests transition deal is expected
Phase 1: exit/ divorce Bill, if progress
Phase 2: oct/nov '17 - prelims future relationship
^Phase 3: 2018: transition negotiation
Exit Deal^

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Kaija · 31/03/2017 10:53

I had an uncharitable thought earlier about all those memes of crying toddlers that Brexiters (and Trumpists) have enjoyed using so much in recent months, wondering whether Remainers should start using them as Brexiters start complaining of the gross unfairness of the EU in the coming negotiations.

(We wouldn't, of course.)

NancyWake · 31/03/2017 10:54

EU LEADER: WE DON’T NEED TO PUNISH BRITAIN – YOU’RE DOING IT YOURSELVES

Exactly. It's the British government who is determined to get us the very worst deal possible. No single market, no customs union. No Euratom.

RedToothBrush · 31/03/2017 10:55

Faisal Islam:
Then after the Exit Deal is ratified, we leave 2019.
^Then under transition arrangements,
Phase 4: separate Trade arrangement agreed^

Michael Warhurst @mwarhurst
Note also that it floats the idea of a transition with all EU laws

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Kaija · 31/03/2017 10:56

Yes, every now and again you take a step back and see how utterly surreal the situation is.

NancyWake · 31/03/2017 10:56

Wrt the May/Thatcher question, Mrs T was a leader, May, for all her authoritarian MO is a follower.

RedToothBrush · 31/03/2017 11:02

Steve Peers @StevePeers
IDS, Rees-Mogg & Redwood will love the bit that says EU/UK FTA 'must encompass safeguards against...fiscal, social & environmental dumping'

In reference to EC draft on Brexit process

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RedToothBrush · 31/03/2017 11:05

www.itv.com/news/2017-03-31/are-spanish-trawlers-in-cornwall-getting-landing-figures-up-so-they-can-claim-link-to-uk-during-brexit-talks/
Are Spanish trawlers in Cornwall 'getting landing figures up' so they can claim link to UK during Brexit talks?

Best get our MEP responsible for fisheries on the case...

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RedToothBrush · 31/03/2017 11:15

Faisal Islam
The transition would surely be under same terms as now, ie same access to EU trade deals with Korea, Canada etc, not WTO

Sounds positive but note of caution: we still have lots of hoops to jump on EUs terms and EU have suggested cap of three years on transition deal.

Three year (so five in total) still very short time frame. And still potential for cliff edge if we don't play ball or cock up.

Also some Tories don't want this and it will go across next GE. Purely as it opens potential to be used against them and the possibility - however remote - that Brexit can be reversed.

At this stage though, EU is making moves to look friendly. Its our choice whether to take it like this or slap them in the face.

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RedToothBrush · 31/03/2017 11:21

Faisal Islam
Cyprus "Sovereign Base Areas" get a mention in the draft negotiation document - British sovereign territory

Taking back control of our sovereignty folks...

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RedToothBrush · 31/03/2017 11:29

Faisal Islam:
The transition would surely be under same terms as now, ie same access to EU trade deals with Korea, Canada etc, not WTO

Alex Barker @alexebarker
Untrue. Transition doesn't apply to EU trade deals. UK is no longer covered unless it gets permission from all third countries. See par 13

Faisal Islam:
ah yes. Could be negotiated though for a transition...or its not impossible that the third parties would agree

Alex Barker:
Hard to do UK-EU transition unless full single market deal. More likely 3rd countries must be asked. 100s of agreements (not just trade)

Sam Hargreaves @Samuel_Sheff
Isn't there a problem also with ECJ having jurisdiction over non-EU countries as we won't be in the treaties anymore?

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mathanxiety · 31/03/2017 12:26

Thirdly, Russia downloads the online voter rolls

The voter rolls are said to fit into this because of "microtargeting". Using email, Facebook and Twitter, political advertising can be tailored very precisely: individual messaging for individual voters.

Why is this necessary given the role of Cambridge Analytica? No microtargeting by Russia is needed because CA has done it all already using social media information that it can easily lay its hands on. That is how Ted Cruz stayed in the race so long and how Trump won.

I am interested to hear Flynn's testimony.

....

Wrt Brexit and Labour funding, is it possible that certain middle eastern states are keen to see Labour muffled, given the possibility of increased and unscrutinised arms sales by the UK, and also the possibility of making a huge killing in real estate in the UK post Brexit?

PoundlandUK · 31/03/2017 12:51

This article from August 2011 always makes me smile. Top tips from Nige the ex gold trader regarding how to invest money to benefit from political turmoil.

www.goldmadesimplenews.com/gold/nigel-farage-gold-price-could-double-from-here-4940/

lalalonglegs · 31/03/2017 13:16

Donald Tusk has just brilliant outwitted May in a masterclass in diplomacy. He was giving a press conference on the draft negotiations and was asked about the implied threat by the UK to withdraw security co-operation and said something along the lines of:

"I know TM very well and I know that she is not the sort of person to make that threat so I think that remark has just been misinterpreted."

So he has neutered that bargaining chip entirely - she either has to agree that the implication was wrong or say, "No actually, I am the sort of nutter who would risk my country's safety and the EU's safety by doing this." Quite brilliantly played by Tusk Star.

MsHooliesCardigan · 31/03/2017 13:59

lala That is total genius. Hopefully it's dawning on TM and the band of jolly Brexiteers just what they're up against and the fact that we used to have an Empire doesn't really cut it anymore.

PlectrumElectrum · 31/03/2017 14:04

Cheeky place mark

Kaija · 31/03/2017 14:26

Maybe it's time to claim the crying toddler meme after all.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/31/outrage-spain-given-effective-veto-future-gibraltar-eu-plans/

LurkingHusband · 31/03/2017 14:44

Things get worse.

Gibraltar - almost to a person - voted to stay IN the EU. So the UK getting upset over Spains position will underscore Scotlands complaint that Westminster is ignoring everybodys wishes.

I really hope the Remain collective is kicking back pointing out this scenario was discussed before June 23rd. So the Telegraphs outrage needs to be directed at the people who ignored it, or told us "it's nothing".

PoundlandUK · 31/03/2017 15:07

Scottish Gov has just released NS letter to TM. Can't link but it's on their twitter. Worth a read!

As usual, irrespective of political disagreement, I'm struck but how much more intelligent NS is than TM.

LurkingHusband · 31/03/2017 15:12

Dear Theresa

When we met in Glasgow on Monday, I wished you well for the negotiations that lie ahead now that you have formally invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. I want to reiterate those good wishes now.

I very much hope that you succeed in realising your ambitions for the terms of the UK's future relationship with the EU. A good deal for the UK is clearly in Scotland's interests whatever constitutional future we choose.

It is for that reason that I intend that the Scottish Government will play a full and constructive role in securing such an outcome.

I expressed my frustration on Monday that the process leading up to the invoking of Article 50 had failed to involve the devolved administrations in any meaningful way - a view that I know is shared by the First Minister of Wales.

Far from securing a UK wide approach ahead of invoking Article 50 - as you committed to do last July - the voices of the devolved administrations were largely ignored and all attempts at compromise rejected, in most cases with no prior consultation.

As we move forward into a new phase, we need to agree a more direct role and influence for the devolved administrations, reflecting the key interests that are at stake for all of us.

However, whatever outcome is secured, it seems inevitable that it will remove the UK, not just from the EU, but also from the single market. As you are aware, that is not an outcome that the people of Scotland voted for. It is also an outcome that will have significant implications for our economy, society and place in the world.

In these very changed circumstances, the people of Scotland must have the right to choose our own future - in short, to exercise our right of self determination.

Indeed I noted the importance you attached to the principle of self determination in your letter to President Tusk.

As you are aware, the Scottish Parliament has now determined by a clear majority that there should be an independence referendum. The purpose of such a referendum is to give people in Scotland the choice of following the UK out of the EU and single market on the terms you negotiate, or becoming an independent country, able to chart our own course and build a genuine partnership of equals with the other nations of the UK. A copy of the motion passed by Parliament on 28 March 2017 is attached.

The decision of the Scottish Parliament has been made in line with the tradition of popular sovereignty in Scotland - that the people of Scotland should be able to determine the form of government most suited to their needs - and with the clear commitment in the manifesto on which my government was re-elected last May.

I am therefore writing to begin early discussions between our governments to agree an Order under section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998 that would enable a referendum to be legislated for by the Scottish Parliament.

I have, of course, noted and carefully considered your public position. However, it seems that we are in agreement on the essential matters.

For example we agree that now is not the time for a referendum.

You confirmed to me on Monday, and repeated in your letter invoking Article 50, that you intend the terms of both the UK's exit from the EU and of a future trade deal to be agreed before March 2019 and in time for ratification by other member states - in other words, between the autumn of next year and the spring of 2019. As you are aware, this is the timescale endorsed by the Scottish Parliament for a referendum.

As I have said previously, if the timetable you have set out changes, we will require to consider the implications for the timing of a referendum. However, it seems reasonable at this stage to work on the basis of your stated timetable.

We are also in agreement that - unlike the EU referendum - the choice must be an informed one. That means that both the terms of Brexit and the implications and opportunities of independence must be clear in advance of the referendum.

It is also worth noting that the clear precedent of the 2012 Edinburgh Agreement should make reaching agreement on this occasion a relatively straightforward process - addressing any concern you may have that discussions would be time consuming for your government when they are also preparing for EU negotiations.

In light of the above, there appears to be no rational reason for you to stand in the way of the will of the Scottish Parliament and I hope you will not do so.

However, in anticipation of your refusal to enter into discussions at this stage, it is important for me to be clear about my position.

It is my firm view that the mandate of the Scottish Parliament must be respected and progressed. The question is not if, but how.

I hope that will be by constructive discussion between our governments. However, if that is not yet possible, I will set out to the Scottish Parliament the steps I intend to take to ensure that progress is made towards a referendum.

Again, I wish you well for all that lies ahead and stand ready to discuss both a section 30 order and the Scottish Government's role in securing the best outcome for all parts of the UK.

I am copying this letter to the Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament and to Bruce Crawford, Convener of the Parliament’s Finance and Constitution Committee.

– NICOLA STURGEON

woman12345 · 31/03/2017 15:13

Wrt Brexit and Labour funding, is it possible that certain middle eastern states are keen to see Labour muffled, given the possibility of increased and unscrutinised arms sales by the UK, and also the possibility of making a huge killing in real estate in the UK post Brexit
interesting one, math
Lib Dems are hopefully clean on their funding atm.
When Flynn's testimony reveals what is expected, I wonder how that will leave investigations into similar here.

NinonDeLanclos · 31/03/2017 15:13

Much more intelligent, and a much better politician.

missmoon · 31/03/2017 15:15

The comments below the Telegraph article are comedy gold. It's great to see all of these issues finally come out into the open, and the EU forcing our government to take them seriously.

Bearbehind · 31/03/2017 15:17

I don't agree with politics but NS is the best politician the UK has atm.

She is much more adept at playing her hand to its best advantage than TM can ever hope to be.

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