Westminstenders: And so it begins

[RedToothBrush]

Promises made that can not be kept.

We have already fallen at the first stumbling block: the desire for parallel talks on exit and future relationship that May wanted has been rejected. Not that this is a surprise seeing as we were told this.

This isn't two years of negotiations for a good deal. Forget any suggestions that it is. It's two years of damage limitation and domestic pr.

For both the UK and EU.

I do believe that May's attitude - which seemed to be more friendly in her speech and letter yesterday - has burnt all our bridges.

This talk of the world needing the EU's 'liberal democracy' isn't aimed at the EU though. Her use of the words that produced uproar in the HoC yesterday was deliberate. Why use it? It was always going to produce a reaction.

When May says she will have a consensus at home to achieve this goal one of two things must happen: to prove just how much we need the EU to make a political reversal possible at the expense of her head or to vilify the EU to a point that Remainers suddenly change their mind.

To get a good deal for the UK she can not satisfy her hard line Brexiteers. It is impossible purely because to do otherwise is like breaking the laws of physics. Trade is done mostly with who you are closest too. This is the inescapable truth. We are leaving the EU but not Europe as keeps being pointed out.

If we want to trade we have to accept EU regulations. If we do not, we do not trade. Rules we can now no longer influence by must obey.

We can not reduce immigration. We have had control of non-Eu immigration and that is not going down due to skills shortages. To combat this schools are getting less money.

In terms of sovereignty and British parliament we just gave that away. The 'Great' Repeal Act is a power grab by the executive. It seems to give the powers of the monarch to Mrs May and take them away from parliamentary scrutiny. At the same time we are forced to become beholden to Trump's America. A man who screws people for a living and has not a shred of honour.

Using security as our bargaining chip misses the obvious. If we do not cooperate we endanger Brits abroad and ourselves domestically. Are we really prepared to stop?

The opportunities of Brexit Britain are bleak. This will be normalised.

Good luck folks. We are gonna need it.

I'll grant that getting rid of Cameron was a bonus of Brexit. The man who wanted to be PM because he thought he would be good at it, and goes down as one of the big disasters. Sadly the downside was that he was replaced by someone worse. Osborne may not be done yet, so we can't say we are rid of him.

Tonight's by-elections

St James, Tendring, Essex
UKIP
This Clacton, the heart of UKIP land, errrr oh yes, WAS the heart until Carswell quit.
UKIP, Con, Lab, LD and Green standing.
Its gonna go blue isn't it?

Elmhurst, Aylsbury, Buckinghamshire
UKIP
UKIP, Con, Lab, LD and Green standing.
Hmm. This could go yellow or blue.

Walcot, Bath and North East Somerset
LD
Con, Lab, LD and Green standing.
Yellow win.

Hipperholme and Lightcliffe, Calderdale, West Yorkshire
CON
Con, Lab, LD and Green standing.
Should be a blue shoe in.

Tonight's QT from Gillingham:
Suella Fernandes CON
Diane Abbott LAB
Tim Farron LD
Jonathan Bartley GREEN
Gerard Coyne UNITE
Michelle Dewberry The Apprentice Winner

This is curious... QT ALWAYS has FIVE guests. Tonight there are SIX. AND after all the complaints about the far right being over represented the make up of the panel is curious. Its almost as if they added someone late in response to those complaints.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2897361-Westminstenders-The-wheels-on-bus-start-to-fall-off-start-to-fall-off?watched=1
New Thread

The JLM has nothing to do with identity politics. It is there to help British Jews who support Israel feel that they can vote Labour instead of Conservative and still have Israel's voice heard.

It exists to put forth an Israeli pov in the Labour Party and it has links with Zionist organisations. Red Ken obv is all for the Palestinians.

"It views Zionism as the national liberation movement of the Jewish people. Its aim is to promote "a secure, progressive, just and successful State of Israel". It is affiliated to the World Labour Zionist Movement. It campaigns against racism generally (especially the British National Party) and seeks to promote a viable peace plan to the Israel-Palestine conflict. With regards to the latter it upholds the rights of the Palestinian people to live at peace with their neighbours on the basis of a Two-state solution.^
(Wiki)

Well, they won't be 'servicing the jets' - they will be servicing the engines.

Oh I am sure they will do a run through the cockpits with their little Turkish dusters and hoovers all the same.

Oh I am sure they will do a run through the cockpits with their little Turkish dusters and hoovers all the same.

The engines will be just that - engines. Not attached to anything, just on their own.

The US under Trump is continuing its longstanding policy of forcing an unwilling UK & Europe to increase cooperation with an increasingly unpleasant regime in Turkey.

Strangely, Leavers wanting to take back control don't mind giving additional control - over something as vital as UK defence equipment - to the USA.

Until now, major repairs of UK combat aircraft have been done in the UK, which is ideal for both for security and for retaining technical capability.

These particular F35 jets would (eventually !) go on the Uk's aircraft carriers

There is an obvious security concern if the Uk and other European customers fall out with Turkey, after say another alleged coup attemot or domestic crackdown by Erdogan.
Or a disagreement about military action in the ME

"Tensions between Turkey and its Nato partners have been running high since last July's failed military coup.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has fired hundreds of senior military staff serving at Nato in Europe and the United States."

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39501299

SNp MP George Kerevan said the UK should consider setting up back-up facilities and is writing to the defence select committee:

"The UK should have options in the event of a diplomatic crisis with Turkey,
"I want to know what alternative arrangements are in place if it became impossible to have the the engines overhauled."

Mark Bobbi, principal analyst at IHS Jane's, said the MP was right to raise the issue:

"My concern is that any cessation of Turkish engine maintenance would strain customer operations of the F-35

"If such is in the context of combat operations in the Middle East, then the issue becomes very serious indeed."

If the Uk falls out with Turkey at a crucial time, there might not be time to build up maintenance facilities from scratch.

The US is looking to cut maintenance costs - but of course has its own facilities on the US if for some reason Turkey can't serbice engines for US planes in Europe.

The UK will not be allowed to set up a fallback facility without the express approval of the US government. It's that simple. There have already been face saving discussions behind the scenes, but it's a done deal. If we want F-35s : thems the rules.

Again "Sovereignty" is starting to look like a Leaver movable feast.

I think remainers need to be cautious at this point. We might just also end up mentioning the fiction that is the UK nuclear deterrent, and the level of contradiction needed to weigh that against "taking back control" could inadvertently see a mini-black hole created. In their minds ....

Oh yes, our nuclear deterrent of American weapons of war, can we even fire them without US permission?

But its ok, taking back control isn't about reality, is about the feeling of taking back control, facts don't matter.

Oh yes, our nuclear deterrent of American weapons of war, can we even fire them without US permission?

Of course we can. Anytime we want.

But they will only go off if the US says so.

But, as previously mentioned. Thems the rules. If we don't like them, we need to make our own nuclear technology. Which - regarding weaponry - we simply cannot do. Nor have ever been able to. We got as far as building an H-Bomb which impressed the US. But then the Russians got so good at building fighter/interceptor planes that the era of the bomber (which the UK has gambled everything on) was over. If you wanted to deliver your nuclear warhead, you needed to be outstanding in rocket technology - hence the entire 1950s, really. And Britain just could not compete. Even if we hadn't wasted all our efforts on bomber-delivered warheads, which we did. Proof written with millions of pounds of the old adage about when the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

Maybe Remainers should open up a second front, and piss all over the Brexiteers chips when they try to paint this picture of caveman->1973 as being some sort of golden era. It wasn't, it was shit. Rationing in the UK lasted longer than the fucking war for Gods sake.

Today ...

LH - how would remaining in the EU have altered/changed/improved the existing contracts wrt Lightning II or nuclear capabilities etc??

What on earth do either have with Remainers/Leavers?

Why do you feel the need to frame every single thing in Leave voter/Remain voter terms?

LH - how would remaining in the EU have altered/changed/improved the existing contracts wrt Lightning II or nuclear capabilities etc??

It wouldn't

Why do you feel the need to frame every single thing in Leave voter/Remain voter terms?

Because that's how Leavers decided the frame it. Unless you can explain how "taking back control" doesn't affect every single thing in the UK. Control of what ? Absent qualification, "control" has to mean everything and anything.

If you're fed up with that, then I'm sorry, but it'll be thrown back at all Leavers for a long time. Now "the people have spoken" Remainers are holding Leavers to show how out lives are going to be improved. And will keep on asking, until such time as daring to ask is banned.

At the very least, Remainers are entitled to ask of Leavers:

What's the plan ?
How will it affect me, and my family ?
How is the plan going ?
When will the plan be complete ?

By my reckoning the answers are:

Fuck knows.
Who cares.
Fuck knows.
Your guess is as good as mine.

Not just similar, but identical to the state of play 24/6/2017.

And it's all being left up to Leavers, since any hint of suggestions from Remainers are shouted down.

One prediction which has been ignored by Leavers, but come spectacularly true is the the vote to Leave has paralysed and flooded the UKs political establishments to the exclusion of all else. If people are tired of Brexit now, wait until 2019/2020 -0 and beyond, when it's still going on. Although the irony then will be that the 52/48 split will have probably reversed, and it will be a minority of 48/52 pushing the Leave agenda.

Because its about sovereignty Semi, and another example of the many things that "we" don't have decision making power over.

So many things are subject to international agreements anyway, which we can't opt out of. Like the wonderful blue passports which some are desperate to bring back - the size is a recommendation of the ICAO and the machines which read the chipped ones have been designed with that in mind. So no going back to the cardboard with the little windows,, however much the Mail and Express readers want them.

So many things are subject to international agreements anyway, which we can't opt out of.

Tsk. More Remoaning project fear. We're the UK and we can do what we damn well want. Well almost. What we can't do anymore is force countries that want to play by the agreed rules to play by UK rules if they don't want to.