Westminstenders: And so it begins

[RedToothBrush]

Promises made that can not be kept.

We have already fallen at the first stumbling block: the desire for parallel talks on exit and future relationship that May wanted has been rejected. Not that this is a surprise seeing as we were told this.

This isn't two years of negotiations for a good deal. Forget any suggestions that it is. It's two years of damage limitation and domestic pr.

For both the UK and EU.

I do believe that May's attitude - which seemed to be more friendly in her speech and letter yesterday - has burnt all our bridges.

This talk of the world needing the EU's 'liberal democracy' isn't aimed at the EU though. Her use of the words that produced uproar in the HoC yesterday was deliberate. Why use it? It was always going to produce a reaction.

When May says she will have a consensus at home to achieve this goal one of two things must happen: to prove just how much we need the EU to make a political reversal possible at the expense of her head or to vilify the EU to a point that Remainers suddenly change their mind.

To get a good deal for the UK she can not satisfy her hard line Brexiteers. It is impossible purely because to do otherwise is like breaking the laws of physics. Trade is done mostly with who you are closest too. This is the inescapable truth. We are leaving the EU but not Europe as keeps being pointed out.

If we want to trade we have to accept EU regulations. If we do not, we do not trade. Rules we can now no longer influence by must obey.

We can not reduce immigration. We have had control of non-Eu immigration and that is not going down due to skills shortages. To combat this schools are getting less money.

In terms of sovereignty and British parliament we just gave that away. The 'Great' Repeal Act is a power grab by the executive. It seems to give the powers of the monarch to Mrs May and take them away from parliamentary scrutiny. At the same time we are forced to become beholden to Trump's America. A man who screws people for a living and has not a shred of honour.

Using security as our bargaining chip misses the obvious. If we do not cooperate we endanger Brits abroad and ourselves domestically. Are we really prepared to stop?

The opportunities of Brexit Britain are bleak. This will be normalised.

Good luck folks. We are gonna need it.

Interesting thoughts on France Misti. The bbc are covering it as 9 candidates with anti-status quo positions against Macron and Fillon defending the centre. They therefore see it as Le Pen solidifying her support amongst those who want change, but think Fillon did well in presenting an alternative vision to Macron.

This is not at all how it has been covered in France, where both the initial press reaction and the opinion polls put Melechon and to a lesser extent Macron as the winners last night. The 11 candidate format has been widely viewed as disadvantaging Le Pen, because all the minor candidates with extreme positions can out-do her when it comes to appealing to those who like shock-jock politics. She was very much on the back foot regarding the Euro and this is reflected in opinion polls.

Also, the rise of Melenchon as a credible candidate is bad news for Le Pen. A not inconsiderable number of Le Pen voters just want to give the establishment a bloody nose. They may choose JLM as their vehicle of choice for delivering the punch.

Fillon is not a centrist. He may take votes from Le Pen, if the religious right see him as a more credible route to the second round.

And Le Pen suffered a telling blow when Poutou attacked her and Fillon over the embezzlement accusations: the clip of him telling her that "there is no such thing as immunity from prosecution for ordinary workers" is all over French Twitter this morning.

Poutou isn't a serious candidate, but that liberated him to say things that mainstream politicians can't. That clip of him taking on Le Pen will IMO become a defining moment of this election.

A not inconsiderable number of Le Pen voters just want to give the establishment a bloody nose.

Oh dear, which country did we hear that in, last year? Look where it's got us.

I'd give at least an 80% likelihood of FOM being still in effect at the next election.

Is that in reality, or Brexit land ?

I would agree with you in reality. But in Brexit land, it will be spun as some sort of glorious victory.

You know the old joke about two people camping in a jungle, and they hear a lion ? One camper starts putting on his running shoes, while the other camper says: "What are you doing ? You can't outrun a lion.". To which his companion says: "I don't need to outrun the lion. I just have to outrun you."

Brexit doesn't have to be a success. It's just the people who think they voted for it need to be told it's a success. After all, if you are stupid enough to cast a vote based on bent bananas, there is nothing in the world you won't fall for.

The BBC has been campaigning for Le Pen for ages.

This is not at all how it has been covered in France
Misti I don't think anything on the BBC for the last 5 years has been like anything shown in European media. Michael Gove took compulsory modern foreign languages off the so called English Bac (lol) a few years ago. Never has being able to limp through French and German papers, or use google translate been more important.

I would agree with you in reality. But in Brexit land, it will be spun as some sort of glorious victory

Yes, of course it will. As Richard North has observed, the "ultras" are so clueless that it will be relatively easy to pull the wool over their eyes at least for a period of time (and by the time it's a done deal it will be too late). None of this is about what's good for the country; it's about what's good for the tory party.

Peregrina the "good" thing about Brexit is that it's made potential Le Pen voters nervous about her anti-EU positions (see the link I posted earlier). If the Anglais are seen as being in le merde over brexit, it will make some French voters think twice. Not that I think Frexit is realistic in any sane view of the French political universe (Le Pen or no); it will never get over the super majority bar.

"Brexit is 'catfight in Conservative party that got out of hand', says Verhofstadt

And here is an extract from Guy Verhofstadt’s speech.

Perhaps it was always impossible to unite Great Britain with the continent. Naive to reconcile the legal system of Napoleon with the common law of the British empire. Perhaps it was never meant to be.

But, our predecessors should never be blamed for having tried. Never. It’s as important in politics as it is in life: to try; new partnerships, new horizons, to reach out to each other, the other side of the Channel. I am also sure that - one day or another - there will be a young man or woman who will try again, who will lead Britain into the European family once again. A young generation that will see Brexit for what it really is: a catfight in the Conservative party that got out of hand, a loss of time, a waste of energy, stupidity.

Let’s not forget: Britain entered the union as the ‘sick man of Europe’ and - thanks to the single market - came out of the other side. Europe made Britain also punch above its weight in terms of geopolitics, as in the heydays of the British empire. And we from our side must pay tribute to Britain’s immense contributions: a staunch, unmatched defender of free markets and civil liberties. Thank you for that. As a liberal, I tell you, I will miss that"
Guy .

Barnier and Verhofstadt make the British side look like rank amateurs.

In hindsight, the Remain camp are guilty of bad planning .

There should have been a contingency in the event of a Leave majority to immediately step up and say:

"OK, we didn't want to leave, but we accept the will of the people. Now here's our list of what we want from Brexit. And produced a nicely researched and referenced plan with clear key bullet points.

It would have blindsided the Brexiteers (who we knew had no plan) and allowed the successive narrative to be Remainer-led.

Probably too late now, but well worth noting for any future idiocy around the world.

Such a strategy may well have worked in the US. Rather than wailing over Trumps win, the Democrats could have responded with a well thought out call of action points that Trump should have been addressing.

I'm available for private consultations, if any Brexiteers want to PM me .

OK, we didn't want to leave, but we accept the will of the people. Now here's our list of what we want from Brexit. And produced a nicely researched and referenced plan with clear key bullet points.

This would have required a credible opposition. Starmer has been very late to the party on this. Far too much appeasement has gone on; the only consistent and effective opposition has come from the LDs, and a handful of London Labour politicians, notably Khan and Lammy.

Note that I now think that it's very likely that we will get an outcome that will be a difficult sell to the Conservative base but acceptable to the Lib Dems and Labour remainers (in terms of the UK's relationship to Europe, I mean). However Labour has manoeuvred itself into a position which makes it unlikely that can extract any political mileage from a massive Tory climb down. Whether the LDs can benefit remains to be seen.

Whether the LDs can benefit remains to be seen.

Well, they're getting my vote in all things from now on. With a Mayoral vote first.

Drifting OT, but it's amusing in a grim way, that people are disgusted with the Labour Party ruling on Ken Livingstone, and talking of quitting over it. I wonder where they were when Blair led us into an illegal war ? Maybe words are more deadly than bombs ?

Perhaps it was always impossible to unite Great Britain with the continent. Naive to reconcile the legal system of Napoleon with the common law of the British empire.

Except that Scotland has retained a separate legal system. Not being an expert on International law I don't know where exactly it draws its inspiration from, but it does mean that different systems can co-exist.

Maybe words are more deadly than bombs Anti semitism kills.

Which bit of holocaust denial is 'amusing' LH?

Peregrina - Scots Kaw being different also crossed my mind. As far as I know it's based on Roman Law and its closest equivalent is Dutch (or South African) Law.

Maybe that's another reason we are more supportive of the EU!

' the Treasury was so disturbed by the response to its forecasts of an economic downturn that it decided to "lock them in the cabinet" and not carry out any detailed updates". '

Just fabulous image. Not to far fetched either. Remember Leavers are doing walk outs of reports they find too gloomy.

Reminds me of when Lee Iacocca took over Chrysler (I think Chrysler, may be one of his other jobs). The wags said they were so inept with the finances, they put the bills on a weighing scales to balance the books.

Remember Leavers are doing walk outs of reports they find too gloomy.

Sticking your fingers in your ears and going la la la I am not listening, does not make those problems go away. In the same way that not reporting 100,000 marching the Saturday before last, doesn't mean we weren't there.

they put the bills on a weighing scales to balance the books.

I wonder if these are the values that Fox is under the illusion, or perhaps hopes, we share along with being prepared to murder thousands of your citizens. He is now the pariah of the rest of Asia, good leader to get into bed with .... app.scmp.com/scmp/mobile/index.html#/article/2085079/desktop

Remember Leavers are doing walk outs of reports they find too gloomy.

Surely if anyone should be walking out, it's remainers ?

After all nothing on the table suits me.

"Brexit doesn't have to be a success. It's just the people who think they voted for it need to be told it's a success. After all, if you are stupid enough to cast a vote based on bent bananas, there is nothing in the world you won't fall for."

As time goes on, I think that this is the nub of it all.

Hello everyone. I tried to stay away. In fact, I tried to block out all news of Brexit for a while. It hasn't worked.

Wow, Summer Amazing to see an example (ethical) of data-mining in action

Genius, Peregrina On every EU-related thread we visit, whether about Gibraltar, expats trade, we should all post this:

You Brexit, You Fixit

If only Mumsnet had signatures ...

You Brexit. You Fixit

Lh The Holocaust is an evil crime without comparison in modern history; the deliberate genocide of a race, not as aftermath to any war with them, or any type of threat they posed

It should NOT be compared to more recent wars for oil, led by Western venality & stupidity.

No dispute from me about the Iraq War being stupid, not planned properly, ignored experts like Hans Blix, disastrous & destabilising for the whole region, the enabler for IS etc

However, there was and is considerable dispute about whether the Iraq war was legal / illegal, as compared to other bloody conflicts where the West is intervening / bombing.
Also, Bush would have had his war regardless.
Blair & the UK were just "poodle cover" not leaders in any way.

Within Germany , it is regarded as horrendously stupid and causing the refugee problem, which the UK has abandoned and Germany is trying to help.
It's partly why they get so pissed about the 2% NATO whinge - clearing up the mess from US / UK military adventurism has been bloody expensive here in both money and political damage.