Westminstenders: And so it begins

[RedToothBrush]

Promises made that can not be kept.

We have already fallen at the first stumbling block: the desire for parallel talks on exit and future relationship that May wanted has been rejected. Not that this is a surprise seeing as we were told this.

This isn't two years of negotiations for a good deal. Forget any suggestions that it is. It's two years of damage limitation and domestic pr.

For both the UK and EU.

I do believe that May's attitude - which seemed to be more friendly in her speech and letter yesterday - has burnt all our bridges.

This talk of the world needing the EU's 'liberal democracy' isn't aimed at the EU though. Her use of the words that produced uproar in the HoC yesterday was deliberate. Why use it? It was always going to produce a reaction.

When May says she will have a consensus at home to achieve this goal one of two things must happen: to prove just how much we need the EU to make a political reversal possible at the expense of her head or to vilify the EU to a point that Remainers suddenly change their mind.

To get a good deal for the UK she can not satisfy her hard line Brexiteers. It is impossible purely because to do otherwise is like breaking the laws of physics. Trade is done mostly with who you are closest too. This is the inescapable truth. We are leaving the EU but not Europe as keeps being pointed out.

If we want to trade we have to accept EU regulations. If we do not, we do not trade. Rules we can now no longer influence by must obey.

We can not reduce immigration. We have had control of non-Eu immigration and that is not going down due to skills shortages. To combat this schools are getting less money.

In terms of sovereignty and British parliament we just gave that away. The 'Great' Repeal Act is a power grab by the executive. It seems to give the powers of the monarch to Mrs May and take them away from parliamentary scrutiny. At the same time we are forced to become beholden to Trump's America. A man who screws people for a living and has not a shred of honour.

Using security as our bargaining chip misses the obvious. If we do not cooperate we endanger Brits abroad and ourselves domestically. Are we really prepared to stop?

The opportunities of Brexit Britain are bleak. This will be normalised.

Good luck folks. We are gonna need it.

To give the Labour Party its due, free personal care was introduced during the Labour-Lib Dem coalition, pre-dating the SNP Governments.

Although the LibDems would claim it as one of their achievements as part of the coalition , which is probably fair, as Henry McLeish, the then FM, may have only changed his mind due to pressure from the SNP, the LibDems and a potential rebellion from some of his own MSPs

It will be interesting to see how Japan copes with a 30% projected population decrease over the next 50 years. They are going down the robotics route and current projections are that technology will abolish up to 30% of UK jobs over the next decade or so.

Female education and emancipation are one strand. But another is security both in terms of social safety net but also in terms of sorting out civil war. Counter intuitively the current Government strategy of cutting benefits to the poor actually encourages them to have more children as the State will not look out for them. The rich in contrast have fewer as there is a dividend for smaller families and self-reliance. See Baroness Wolff The XX Factor.

The great advantage of EU immigrants is that they come when they are young and fit, but - unless they marry a British spouse - usually return tontheir own country after a few years, or at least to retire.

So the UK avoids the most expensive bits - education and care in old age - but reaps the benefit of (some of) their working years

Immigrants from developing countries almost always want to stay - and bring in spouses and deoendent parents & grannies, which is lovely & caring, but increases the number who later cost a bomb in their old age.

The population in Scotland has been practically static for decades: 5,175,000 in 1961, 5,295,000 in 2011 - but has now apparently grown to the heady heights of c5.35 million.

It's one of the reasons why, with an aging population, we need more immigration

Although given the poor Scottish life expectancy, at least were not as expensive for pensions! There are some areas (Polmadie in Glasgow is one, iirc) where the average life expectancy is below the pension age

It will be interesting to see how Japan deals with a shrinking population, I agree.

"They are going down the robotics route"

Perhaps - but they are also seeking to dramatically increase immigration.

www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/09/23/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-grows-open-foreign-workers-population-declines/#.WOJ5m-x4XCQ

Counter intuitively the current Government strategy of cutting benefits to the poor actually encourages them to have more children as the State will not look out for them.

That may work in sub-Saharan Africa and in Asia, where older people are part of the family. Whether that would work with living and work arrangments in the West is debatable.

Meet the new boss:
www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-saudi-arabia-theresa-may-allies-liam-fox-trades-deals-europe-beware-a7664741.html

Cleggers' new coalition:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/03/nick-clegg-lets-join-forces-and-beat-the-brexiteers

Oh how lovely. Can't wait for the public floggings. How ironic can't wait to tell the racists I know that we are selling ourselves to Muslim states

Mike Smithson‏*@MSmithsonPB*
ICM. Acceptable for TMay to make compromises on free movement of people in BREXIT negotiations?
54% Acceptable
29% Not acceptable
17% DK

Ooo problem solved then. Why did we have a referendum again?

woman your link cheered me up good and proper

At this stage in proceedings I think Mumsnet Towers needs to award us a new laughing-crying smilie.

We deserve it.

Poundland I thought we had one already.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/03/gibraltar-row-theresa-may-urges-jaw-jaw-not-war-war-spain/
Gibraltar row: Theresa May urges 'jaw-jaw, not war-war' with Spain

You mean talking bollocks and hot air?

Gibraltar row: Theresa May urges 'jaw-jaw, not war-war' with Spain

Starting with Michael Howard, presumably ?

Love it!

....and when that fails, plenty of

Ms May needs some more meds

Churchill will be spinning in his grave

Yes, they are a bit beheady, Poorboy. Muck and brass.

Just come back from sunny Canvey Island, Essex in the beautiful sunshine. And spotted only one union jack flag. I had thought it was Brexit central. But lots of normal multi cultural British enjoying the sun, sand and chips. Really lovely.

In that link RTB it's headed: "Brexit and Gibraltar: May laughs off Spain 'war' talk". The laughy stuff is a bit of a concern atm.

Sod it, I'm going to get an EU T Shirt too.

Bigchoc thought I would post the Scottish EU National research again as it is pertinent to this discussion. It is not true to say that accession country EU Nationals do not settle and raise families in Scotland at least. 20% of the total number are under 16. I suggest it is unlikely that these, mostly Polish families, will go back to Poland in old age having raised and schooled their children in Scotland. Indeed there is already a relatively large Polish post war immigration community in Scotland for them to join.

The EU14 migrants who make up the other 50% ish of EU migration are 20% over 50, which surprised me somewhat as I had assumed there would be a lot of students and young academics.

www.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S5/SB_16-86_EU_nationals_living_in_Scotland.pdf

There are also some interesting comparisons on population growth and make up between rUK and Scotland and lots of other stuff as well.

Not just beheady misognists, they're war criminals according to below

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/anti-war-activists-sam-walton-saudi-general-ahmed-asiri-citizens-arrest-london-visit-yemen-war-a7659956.html

^Major General Ahmed Asiri was confronted by activist Sam Waldron, who was quickly pushed away by the soldier’s bodyguards.
Cluster bombs randomly scatter explosives over a wide area, instead of a single target, greatly heightening the threat to civilians. The United Kingdom is prohibited from using the munitions in conflict but has supplied them to other countries^

And on Channel 4 news tonight.

Rapey fascists(maybe that's why she brought in the rape clause) and war criminals; maybe we will get nice weather to go with being a failed state.

But RICH war criminals. Just like rich immigrants that is OK. They are on the new alternative worlds good list

Hmmm what were the brexit nutjobs going on about the liberal elite controlling everything? Nope twas the same rich bastards that are who are coming in to pillage us now.

You've been had UK plc.

Don't know if this has been posted - it's the Daily Fail and Peter Oborne but interesting. In fact, that makes it interesting.

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4370118/How-Brexit-rip-Tory-party-two.html

'A shadowy Tory cabal and how Brexit could still rip the party in two'

"Many Conservatives are concerned that she means for Britain to stay in the EU in all but name. These fears have been inflamed by reports that her husband, Philip, a City figure whose views carry weight at home, is a passionate Remainer". Well, I didn't know that.

Its not UK PLC that's been had. Its the leave voters.

Just go look at the thread where they complain about people's attitudes towards them. Full of factual inaccuracies, outright lies and inaccuracies.

And they wonder why?

And this from (washes hands), the Sun

www.thesun.co.uk/news/3220466/liam-fox-said-to-be-seething-after-being-barred-from-theresa-mays-brexit-negotiations-inner-circle/

'Liam Fox said to be ‘seething’ after being snubbed from Theresa May’s Brexit negotiations inner circle'

Sorry if these have all been dissected to death already.

Swedish ERG is linked to DUP and Steve Baker.
www.irishnews.com/news/2017/02/25/news/dup-transferred-9-000-from-brexit-donation-to-party-funds-944576/?ref=sh
But I think they are separate from Arron Banks? Does anyone know?

Now, a bit like the GOP, I am wondering how the alt right will re configure in Britain. It could come down to Banks' bad boys against Bakers' dozen. The suspicion is that Banks has more money and Russian power behind him. Bit like Steve Bannon.

Could we crowd fund a sealed padded cell, medication and boxing gloves for all of them.

Today's surveys on rejection of EU '£50b bill' seem to be setting up for complete alt right power grab that laughing Teresa has enabled.

May's toast, but I was hoping for a little longer before the fall. I do wish we had a written constitution.