Westminstenders: And so it begins

[RedToothBrush]

Promises made that can not be kept.

We have already fallen at the first stumbling block: the desire for parallel talks on exit and future relationship that May wanted has been rejected. Not that this is a surprise seeing as we were told this.

This isn't two years of negotiations for a good deal. Forget any suggestions that it is. It's two years of damage limitation and domestic pr.

For both the UK and EU.

I do believe that May's attitude - which seemed to be more friendly in her speech and letter yesterday - has burnt all our bridges.

This talk of the world needing the EU's 'liberal democracy' isn't aimed at the EU though. Her use of the words that produced uproar in the HoC yesterday was deliberate. Why use it? It was always going to produce a reaction.

When May says she will have a consensus at home to achieve this goal one of two things must happen: to prove just how much we need the EU to make a political reversal possible at the expense of her head or to vilify the EU to a point that Remainers suddenly change their mind.

To get a good deal for the UK she can not satisfy her hard line Brexiteers. It is impossible purely because to do otherwise is like breaking the laws of physics. Trade is done mostly with who you are closest too. This is the inescapable truth. We are leaving the EU but not Europe as keeps being pointed out.

If we want to trade we have to accept EU regulations. If we do not, we do not trade. Rules we can now no longer influence by must obey.

We can not reduce immigration. We have had control of non-Eu immigration and that is not going down due to skills shortages. To combat this schools are getting less money.

In terms of sovereignty and British parliament we just gave that away. The 'Great' Repeal Act is a power grab by the executive. It seems to give the powers of the monarch to Mrs May and take them away from parliamentary scrutiny. At the same time we are forced to become beholden to Trump's America. A man who screws people for a living and has not a shred of honour.

Using security as our bargaining chip misses the obvious. If we do not cooperate we endanger Brits abroad and ourselves domestically. Are we really prepared to stop?

The opportunities of Brexit Britain are bleak. This will be normalised.

Good luck folks. We are gonna need it.

On recent trips to various EU countries, I noticed that many public buildings had EU flags hanging outside. I'm not sure I've noticed that in the UK?

To be fair, generally the UK is quite low-key when it comes to that sort of stuff ... maybe the odd Union Flag (it's only Jack when it's flown at sea ) here and there, but nowhere like the US. (for example).

Do Americans really have photos of the serving President on the walls in Federal Buildings ? A bit Kim-Jong-Un if they do ....

If nothing else, my estimation of the Mirror readership has gone up ...

My post at 9.30 - if you hit a paywall for the FT article link, just type the article name into your browser. Seems to work:

How to get Britain back into the EU.

Not sure where the data would be kept - I guess on these threads maybe ? If we had a separate thread no doubt people would post rubbish on it to fill it up.

I sort of feel it should sit with the rest of the info here as things go along (don't feel confident enough to say progress) . Once it's collated it will be easy to cut and post to add to it and maybe a couple of us could screenshot each time so it's kept somewhere separate as a back up.

I can slowly work my way back through the threads over time. From memory there was activity just before A50 triggered, before verdicts of both the Supreme and High Courts verdicts and a fair few more I can't remember at the moment. As I said just a thought and if general consensus is that it's a bit of a waste of time when more people have had a chance to read it then fully get that.

Bigchoc all the cuts in that Guardian article are implementing George (Remainer) Osborne's last budget. They are the reason people at the bottom end voted Brexit to get rid of his ability to keep undercutting them via EU immigration.

howabout I don't think that any of the leavers I know linked GO budget cuts to immigration.

twitter.com/LibDemPress/status/848843054152896515
The Lib Dem Press Office Strikes Again.

Guido Fawkes puts up a story about a photoshopped picture of Tim Farron, and the Lib Dem Press Office replies in its usual fashion.

I think they should be nominated for a comedy award.

howabout Um, but Theresa May has kept all those cuts - she could have reversed them in Hammond's last budget .

Now she needs to cut even more to pay for Brexit (& grammar schools ) and the Tory hard right currently running the show are far more ruthless towards the poor than Osbourne.

He cut benefits to reduce the deficit (abandoned now), whereas hardright Tories also cut because of moral disapproval of those on benefits - they cut from hate, not indifference ot the poor.

Also, how is that guy with cancer being undercut ?
Are we talking about the same Guardian article - the Tory voter with terminal cancer, whose family will lose 50k if he survives after 5 April ?

Benefits cuts have absolutely nothing to do with "undercutting" by migrant workers.

When DC went to the EU and failed to get a decent renegotiation on FoM and access to the Benefits system the response from politicians like him and Remainers in general was to cut benefits and access to them for all, since we have not gone down the social insurance model of other EU countries.

If UK wages were not being suppressed by immigration then fewer would be reliant on TC / UC and there would be less need to make cuts. If there was less pressure on housing due to uncontrolled EU immigration then rents would be lower and so would the HB bill.

The cuts to widows' benefit (and restrictions on ESA) were started under Labour. They are a continuation of the drive away from the "social insurance" model towards benefit based on "need" and are also driven by the "equality" agenda. Unmarried single parents don't see why married widows should have preferential treatment - there are many comments to that effect on the MN thread on the subject.

As the NI debacle has shown, when it suits the press and the Labour Party are very happy to hold the Government to its manifesto commitments which included cuts to benefits.

Hester fwiwm in all officials buildings (e.g. Consulate, town hall etc) in France younwill find a photo of the current president. Not a huge thing but somewhere there will be one.
When the president is doing a speech 'to the nation' you will always have the french flag AND the European flag, never just the french flag in its own.

I'm not sure that having the photo of the current president says anything (it's usually small and t used away on one room). But the use of the European flag says A LOT.

What I have noticed in the uk is that there is very little recognition of what the EU is doing of what sort of funding they are giving. At best you have a small sign saying 'funded thanks to the help to the EU'. But for example, our local park has been completely redone with EU funding and never the local press has acknowledged that. Nope we've had talk about the council doing the work p, how much it did cost etc... but never a word how much the EU had actually out in to do said job.
I think it's a shame. Because that also means that people have no idea of the how much the EU has helped very local projects, on things that DO have a direct impact on people.
I've also worried about the European flag. Why is it that it's present in every town hall and official building in France/other European countries but not in the UK?

Popped out for the morning. I see we've come full circle. I didn't realise immigrants were causing the rental rates to rise everywhere. I was very sure it was local infrastructure work rocketing the house prices in a lot of cases .

Love the Lib Dem Press Office. If nothing else it does show they have some touch with reality.

I think I've discovered DD's thought process re Brexit
it’s only impossible if you stop and think about it

how I'm not sure that wages have been suppressed by immigration TBH.
For one, there is a national minimum wage that would stop that.
But also what has driven income down is the increase in zero hour contract, forced part time employment etc..
All of that is within governement role and should have been tackled by them.

You keep telling yourself that Green but BoE research suggests otherwise. Wage stagnation over the last 10 years is almost unprecedented according to the IFS.

The rate of underbuilding of housing for the last 10 years has been about 200k per year. This is roughly in line with the immigration target overshoot over the same period.

The pro Remain lobby were in power throughout the period.

there would be less need to make cuts.
Is there a 'need' for cuts or are they ideologically driven? Don't economists disagree on whether cuts help anyone?
Don't studies show that the average undercutting of wages by immigrants is of £25 per year?
Thanks to those who posted it for the illuminating Banks interview btw, food for thought.

Wage stagnation over the last 10 years is almost unprecedented according to the IFS.
And they blame the recession for it, not a word about immigration in their report (though I'm looking through it quickly)...

Yes, because if JRM Johnson et al were in then the world would have been a glorious place with no problems at all. Largely because the poor would have been back in the workhouses.

I think the global recession might have contributed to wage stagnation in the last ten years! If it's all attributable to immigration, then why do you have wage stagnation in jobs requiring higher qualifications?
Wages have stagnated in my field of work and we have relatively little competition from overseas workers, and those that do come to work here are not benefitting significantly in terms of pay.

As for housing, thats a complicated picture with several contributing factors:

• lack of available council properties due to right to buy
• lack of building (in part due to the recession) and high house prices which means more people now need to rent as they cannot buy
• increase in value of properties = increase in rental prices

I'm not saying that immigration hasn't contributed at all to the above problems, but to suggest it is the sole problem is disingenuous in the extreme. It will also lead to disappointment if and when you do reduce immigration and these problems aren't magically solved.

A more sensible approach, rather than the government screaming "ITS THE IMMIGRANTS" would be to tackle all of the contributing factors in a reasoned and managed way. That would be difficult, time consuming and require an injection of cash, so yeah, let's just use a scapegoat instead

The rate of underbuilding of housing for the last 10 years has been about 200k per year. This is roughly in line with the immigration target overshoot over the same period.

As people on MN are so fond of saying, and I am surprised they haven't done so far, 'correlation is not causation'.

Crosspost with fawful

Seriously though, has everyone forgotten that we're still recovering from a massive recession? I know I haven't because it had long lasting effects on my career and finances.

Also, does each person coming into the uk need a house to themselves? If not, those numbers don't add up.

Regarding immigration and wage suppression comments:

Comparing the UK vs Germany 2014 immigration data (given Germany have experienced +15% wage growth versus the UK since financial crisis 2008) would suggest that the issue lies outside immigration (either EU or non-EU).

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Immigration_by_citizenship,2014(%C2%B9)_YB16.png

Taking the BOE research report (2015) in full clearly frames the issue in its rightful context. www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp574.pdf Extracting from the conclusion on p24:

Closer examination reveals that the biggest effect is in the semi/unskilled services sector, where a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants is associated with a 2 percent reduction in pay. Where immigrants come from — EU or non-EU — appears to have no impact on our economy wide results; with the impact within the semi/unskilled services sector being small*

I'm not familiar with any further research from the BoE on this issue since that report. If there has been then please could someone link it for me - thanks.

Also, does each person coming into the uk need a house to themselves? If not, those numbers don't add up.
Apparently their preference for multi-dwelling is what helps drive wages down, so clearly they can't be fully responsible for that.

The answer to housing shortage is a policy to build more houses, not a policy that tries to ensure that there are less people around, people that are needed to the British economy.

And YY about the last economic crisis.
(Which was what started all the zero hours contract etc btw).

Let's also not forget that many young immigrants rent rooms and sometimes beds in rooms. Not noticed many buying up our housing stock

Apart from the extremely wealthy Chinese/Arab States/Russian/Greeks

But then they don't seem to count - the rich never do when we talk about immigration. It's the guys washing the cars, driving the cabs, working on the building sites. The working people who have contributed to building our country who we then denigrate and dehumanise massing them all together as 'immigrants' putting a strain on our infrastructure

The patchiness of the anti-immigration arguments never cease to astound me. How about we start talking about our migrants to Spain etc in the same tone. I bet pensioners (apart from spending money) are not actively contributing to the infrastructure of Spain/France etc. Bet they are using the health services. Bet they are buying houses. But that's OK??????

The false economy within our housing stock prevents increased building - there is no link with immigration. Yet another fallacy