Westminstenders: And so it begins

[RedToothBrush]

Promises made that can not be kept.

We have already fallen at the first stumbling block: the desire for parallel talks on exit and future relationship that May wanted has been rejected. Not that this is a surprise seeing as we were told this.

This isn't two years of negotiations for a good deal. Forget any suggestions that it is. It's two years of damage limitation and domestic pr.

For both the UK and EU.

I do believe that May's attitude - which seemed to be more friendly in her speech and letter yesterday - has burnt all our bridges.

This talk of the world needing the EU's 'liberal democracy' isn't aimed at the EU though. Her use of the words that produced uproar in the HoC yesterday was deliberate. Why use it? It was always going to produce a reaction.

When May says she will have a consensus at home to achieve this goal one of two things must happen: to prove just how much we need the EU to make a political reversal possible at the expense of her head or to vilify the EU to a point that Remainers suddenly change their mind.

To get a good deal for the UK she can not satisfy her hard line Brexiteers. It is impossible purely because to do otherwise is like breaking the laws of physics. Trade is done mostly with who you are closest too. This is the inescapable truth. We are leaving the EU but not Europe as keeps being pointed out.

If we want to trade we have to accept EU regulations. If we do not, we do not trade. Rules we can now no longer influence by must obey.

We can not reduce immigration. We have had control of non-Eu immigration and that is not going down due to skills shortages. To combat this schools are getting less money.

In terms of sovereignty and British parliament we just gave that away. The 'Great' Repeal Act is a power grab by the executive. It seems to give the powers of the monarch to Mrs May and take them away from parliamentary scrutiny. At the same time we are forced to become beholden to Trump's America. A man who screws people for a living and has not a shred of honour.

Using security as our bargaining chip misses the obvious. If we do not cooperate we endanger Brits abroad and ourselves domestically. Are we really prepared to stop?

The opportunities of Brexit Britain are bleak. This will be normalised.

Good luck folks. We are gonna need it.

...unless of course it suits her purposes to have a huge amount of noise and umbrage in the air while simultaneously the brutal cuts in welfare are brought in.

unless of course it suits her purposes
www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/02/cancer-patients-family-stands-to-lose-50k-under-benefit-cuts

Theresa May will spearhead a post-Brexit trade blitz today when she begins a three-day trip to the Middle East designed to foster business links and underline the UK’s security credentials.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4374128/Theresa-flies-mission-Saudi-Arabia.html
Only in the Fail.

Thank you all for keeping these threads going, they are my bit of sanity amongst the madness.

It has just occurred to me that annoying though the sock puppet activity is on here, it plots the Brexit lows (I'm awaiting the highs..) and wonder if it would be informative to keep an ongoing log of events they have responded to? It would be a good record to look back on and help those who will be inevitably studying these threads as part of their damn expertesque Ph.D theses in the future plus highlight for us now the key events that are causing the Leave side worry. Just a thought.

At one time, with the stupid ranting about going to war with Spain and even the whole Brexit debacle, a country like the US would have told us to stop the stupidity and people (Govt.) would have come to their senses. With an idiot in the White House egging them on, who is going to fulfill this role? Sensible advice from this country has been ignored - Project Fear, not being positive, blah, blah.... Sensible diplomats have been forced out. Mark Carney, the only one who had any sort of plan, has made it clear he is leaving the madhouse, having been put under pressure to do so, although it does fit his personal circumstances.

But hey, it's all going to work because Brexit means Brexit and Theresa May intends to make a success of it. So we all fall into line.

Mirabelle Where would this log be kept? It would be a good idea. So many of the predicted lows have already started to happen, (although to a slower timetable than expected.) Others, like silly threats to go to war with Spain, I don't think anyone predicted.

I'm just off to work. That could be embarassing - I'm in Germany and I may have to reassure colleagues that most of the UK has not gone stark raving mad.

Misti may find the same and I pity the poor sods working in Spain - they'll spend half the day apologising.

I have learnt more about economics, British trade, customs and constitutional and EU law in the last 6 months than I even knew before Mirabelle. Interesting times, and well worth noting our visitors, for sure. All good copy as Nora Ephron said.

I haven't checked the Gibraltar thread or Brexit Arms, to see if they are talking up war - I started to say "following the tabloids," but the Torygraph leads the mad-as-a-box-of-frogs Brexit war party.

If anyone here is too young to remember how the Iraq War started....
As you see, a substantial chunk of the British public loses all reason and just sees a red mist when the righwing media ramp up hatred against a foreign country.

Nationalism can be positive, but not when used to disguise the total failure of a govt - because
the bigger the cockup they'vemade , the higher they ramp up hatred of foreigners

No banana republic could do it better

I pity the poor sods working in Spain - they'll spend half the day apologising.

Working in Spain, yes. Living in Spain? The majority of pensioners live in English enclaves. They might realise that it's best to lie low, but apologise? I doubt it. Those British emigrants who genuinely love Spain and live outside enclaves and have bothered to learn the language probably will, but their Spanish neighbours will know that they aren't the stupid ones.

Now, let's see, how many Pensioners in Spain are reliant on a) uplift to UK pensions, guaranteed under EU rules, but by no means certain to be guaranteed in future, b) dependent on the Spanish health care system? Answer - Personally I am not sure, but I think it's about 300,000.

On bots:

medium.com/@d1gi/can-elections-be-bot-970d4b4ae430

And yes, a good few days to bury bad news.
All the cuts.
Horrid to read about cutting benefits even for cancer sufferers

That poor man
If he lives beyond 5 April, then his family loses 50k

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/02/cancer-patients-family-stands-to-lose-50k-under-benefit-cuts

He's a businessman who has paid loads into the system, voted Tory all his life - they didn't used to be such bastards - and now sees he and his family suffering under govt cuts.
So many more like him.

Cuts to fund lower taxes on the rich; cuts to fund Brexit; cuts to fund wars ....

Misti When I returned to Germany in July, I bought little EU flags which sit on my office cupboard and flutter happily on my bike basket.
The other day, someone at the gym referred to "BigChoc, the one with the EU flag on her bike" so people do notice.

I've just ordered more flags & stickers from Amazon and I'm looking for a nice EU mug for the office.

voted Tory all his life -
Will his family still vote Tory? Will they believe that they are still better than the alternatives?

The rise of the moderates begins....www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/voices/labour-conservatives-lib-dems-centre-party-theresa-may-hard-brexit-a7661456.html%3Famp

Observer: Remainers "enemy within"

It's not just the EU they hate ...
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/apr/01/brexit-may-merkel-eu-talks-davis

"at a stroke, the hard Brexiters have pivoted and, with no Brussels and Eurocrats to blame,
they have set their sights on domestic targets.

In its typically brutish way, the Daily Mail, within hours of the triggering of article 50, started talking about

the “enemy within”.
< they've form for this ... >

And what exactly is so treacherous about the “enemy within”?
The desire to challenge, debate, scrutinise and oppose aspects of the Brexit deal.

To not fully sign up to Brexit is, it seems, to render oneself unpatriotic; an enemy.

The Economist has described the atmosphere which has characterised the hard Brexiters’ public discourse as “McCarthyite”.

Imagine, now, the impact on the public realm in Britain as the bilious hate previously directed at Europe is trained on “the enemy within”.

For the past 30 years, Eurosceptics were entitled to argue their case – loudly supported by elements in the media.
Now, with positions reversed, Europhiles can and should do the same.

To describe them as “enemies within” is to release a toxic virus into public discourse that Brexiters should disown, and Remainers should challenge.

Britain can do better than this."

I'm glad they are setting out their stall so quickly

Happy to be an enemy within. Let's see how they take down 48% and growing

Never have I been more happy to stand up and be counted

And I think it's time we all started to ask fir Mays resignation

Step down Theresa. Yout are out of your depth

We should be talking about this potential war because as pointed out:

Nick Robinson‏*@bbcnickrobinson*

Reality check. Chances of military action over Gibraltar = close to nil. Chances of military action over N Korean nukes = significant

At least Trump says the US will go it alone.

The selective nature of things is funny isn't it.

Law and Policy‏*@Law*andpolicy

"We support Gibraltar's self-determination."
- Thanks, we want to stay in EU, by 96%.
"No, not that sort. But can we invade Spain yet?"

(((Tim O'Connor)))‏*@timoconnorbl*
Quick note: the EU Council Negotiation Document does not threaten sovereignty over Gibraltar. It doesn't even use the word "sovereignty". It simply states any extension of any future UK-EU deals to cover Gibraltar would require the consent of Spain. In respect of any FTA, which requires unanimity, it's not much more than stating what would be a given anyway. But the hysterical reaction in the UK IS important, for several reasons.

First, it further confirms they're blindsided by the predictable.

Second, it shows the either don't know, or don't care, what the documents actually say, and will leap to over-reaction regardless.

And third, when legislators leap in to fuel this nonsense further, it confirms that these are afactual people, hag-ridden by hacks.

All of which, together, act as a very serious warning that these may very well be people with whom one just cannot make any sensible deal. Because, unlike the U.K. side, the EU side ARE serious people who pay attention and know the facts. And this will not be impressing anyone.

Addendum: Gibraltar is also a future issue. NI is a right-this-moment one being utterly ignored for fever-dreams of empire. That's worrying.

Ciarán McGonagle‏*@cpmcgonagle*
Some thoughts/a rant on the UK's stated ambition to become a global leader in free trade in the context of the events of the past 4 days. As experts consistently point out, global trend in trade has been away from unilateral trade deals and toward regional trade frameworks. Obviously unilateral trade deals in vogue at the moment. Trump seems keen due to his misunderstanding of trade imbalances in geo-politics

Of course, there may come a point where this may change. Far-sighted, sensible and experienced policy makers will be paying close attention. I wonder how the UK can ever expect/hope to become a "global leader" in free trade given the past 4 days, much less the past 40 years?

UK at risk of become perceived as an irrational actor. Former high-ranking officials threatening war at merest provocation is beyond parody. Using security cooperation & EU citizens, whether explicitly or implicitly, as bargaining chips to secure preferential trade is astonishing. Very little that UK has done in past 40 yrs suggests movement beyond old Empire thinking. Govt demonstrably ignorant of how the EU operates.

For 40 yrs, successive Govts, spurred on by media, have peddled lies & nonsense about EU to distract from their failed domestic policies. Trade is based on mutual respect, a shared vision and compromise. On what basis could the UK ever purport to lead the world in trade?

Not Simon Tam‏*@uncriticalsimon*
Trade is, fundamentally, political. Technical standards, who you trade with - it's all tied up with politics.

The truth is, that remainers might piss off leavers with their 'pessimism', but in failing to listen to remainers, the government are missing using a key asset available to them which might help us get a good deal.

Anyway, this nutjobbery appears to not just be a new thing, but a British trait:
www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/hard-brexit-article-50-archives-britain-blow-up-channel-tunnel-nuclear-bomb-a7662711.html
Super-hard Brexit: how Britain planned to blow up the Channel Tunnel with a nuclear bomb

The history of the Channel Tunnel, incorporating 200 years of Eurosceptic fearmongering and including plans, uncovered by The Independent,for the hardest Brexit of all – destruction by nuclear bomb – has fascinating echoes for today

I look forward to this being in the next Tory manifesto:
www.independent.co.uk/news/science/archaeology/archaeology-scientists-find-medieval-remains-english-vampires-yorkshire-wharram-percy-a7663121.html
Scientists uncover medieval remains of the first English 'living dead'
Villagers at the excavated site are thought to have believed that corpses of evil or vengeful individuals were capable of 'reanimating'in the ground and rising from their graves to attack or kill the living

I think its a vote winner and the Mail would love it.

Robert Hutton‏*@RobDotHutton*

Spain's Foreign Minister Alfonso Dastis: "It looks like someone in the UK is losing their composure."

Pffft Project Reality.

Bench Mark for May's Local Election.

Britain Elects‏*@britainelects*
Local election prediction from Rallings & Thrasher, net seat changes:

CON: +50
LAB: -50
LDEM: +100
UKIP: -100

It a bit like being trapped in an Ealing comedy.

I wonder if Theresa May, is actually being played by Alistair Sim ?
Amber Rudd by Joyce Grenfell ?

Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and David Davis all played by Peter Sellars ?

Michael Howard by Lionel Jeffries ?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/only-fools-horsest-how-brexitcom-10133406
Only Fools and Horses**t: how is this Brexitcom going to work?
No income tax, no VAT, no money back, no guarantee

Brexit: The Reality. We are more Del Boy than Churchill and this article really nails it.

Brilliant!

On recent trips to various EU countries, I noticed that many public buildings had EU flags hanging outside. I'm not sure I've noticed that in the UK? Maybe we never really bought into the philosophical unity idea of Europe, as other countries did? Did we see it mainly as a beneficial trade alliance? This article talks about how, if we're going to ever convince people that rejoining is a good idea, then we need to stop talking about only the financial benefits:
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/88cfc674-1613-11e7-b0c1-37e417ee6c76