Westminstenders: And so it begins

[RedToothBrush]

Promises made that can not be kept.

We have already fallen at the first stumbling block: the desire for parallel talks on exit and future relationship that May wanted has been rejected. Not that this is a surprise seeing as we were told this.

This isn't two years of negotiations for a good deal. Forget any suggestions that it is. It's two years of damage limitation and domestic pr.

For both the UK and EU.

I do believe that May's attitude - which seemed to be more friendly in her speech and letter yesterday - has burnt all our bridges.

This talk of the world needing the EU's 'liberal democracy' isn't aimed at the EU though. Her use of the words that produced uproar in the HoC yesterday was deliberate. Why use it? It was always going to produce a reaction.

When May says she will have a consensus at home to achieve this goal one of two things must happen: to prove just how much we need the EU to make a political reversal possible at the expense of her head or to vilify the EU to a point that Remainers suddenly change their mind.

To get a good deal for the UK she can not satisfy her hard line Brexiteers. It is impossible purely because to do otherwise is like breaking the laws of physics. Trade is done mostly with who you are closest too. This is the inescapable truth. We are leaving the EU but not Europe as keeps being pointed out.

If we want to trade we have to accept EU regulations. If we do not, we do not trade. Rules we can now no longer influence by must obey.

We can not reduce immigration. We have had control of non-Eu immigration and that is not going down due to skills shortages. To combat this schools are getting less money.

In terms of sovereignty and British parliament we just gave that away. The 'Great' Repeal Act is a power grab by the executive. It seems to give the powers of the monarch to Mrs May and take them away from parliamentary scrutiny. At the same time we are forced to become beholden to Trump's America. A man who screws people for a living and has not a shred of honour.

Using security as our bargaining chip misses the obvious. If we do not cooperate we endanger Brits abroad and ourselves domestically. Are we really prepared to stop?

The opportunities of Brexit Britain are bleak. This will be normalised.

Good luck folks. We are gonna need it.

Semi As always, it depends what the voters are prepared to sacrifice for it, financially and - in the case if war - lives.

Also at what population level you hold to the principle.
The Falklands before the war had a population of only 1,800.
Would you go to war, or refuse a good trade deal, for a colony of 180 ? Of 18 ?

Before the Falklands war, very few British people had ever heard of the place.
Several wives of Royal Marines then were openly angry at the few wives from the Falklands, saying their own husbands could get killed because of an insignificant dot on the other side of the world.

Would voters really agree to give up a hard-won "special" UK Brexit deal,
i.e. agree to economic downturn - for the wishes of 42k people, 1,000 /4,000 miles away ?

These are the same voters who voted for cuts to benefits of their fellow citizens, opting instead for lower taxes

Yes, but - it's already been pointed out to you how the EU Referendum in Gibraltar went, and how the results are incompatible with the earlier Referendum

You appear to have failed to read this part of my post:

If FI & Gibraltar decided that they wanted to break from Britain then that is their right - but it is not for any country to forcibly decide that a country 'belongs' to them.

Yes, I do understand that their overwhelming vote in the EU ref is incompatible with their earlier ref re sovereignty.
I acknowledged that in an earlier post too.

It is entirely up to the people of Gibraltar to decide their future.
Not Spain.

If the people of Gibraltar decide that remaining part of the EU (via Spain) is better than being out of the EU, but remaining British then that must be their choice.

It was (rightly) considered Not Ok for UK to use EU citizens as 'bargaining chips', yet it is apparently Ok for the EU to use a country and its citizens as such?!

Gibraltar decided that they wanted to break from Britain then that is their right.

Not so, according to the Treaty of Utrecht. If Britain chose to give up Gibraltar, it would first have to be offered to Spain.The original treaty doesn't talk about Gibraltar having any autonomy, but of course, the world has changed significantly since then, and a new Treaty could be written. Treaties require diplomacy, which is in short supply in the current Government, IMO.

Who would suffer the greatest damage, if Spain decided to revert to its previous stance and close the border? So, in short, the EU Referendum has caused a mess.

Several wives of Royal Marines then were openly angry at the few wives from the Falklands, saying their own husbands could get killed because of an insignificant dot on the other side of the world.

What was the opinions of the Royal Marines themselves?
It doesn't really matter what the wives thought tbh.

As a former member of the armed forces, I would have absolutely laid my life on the line for a colony of 18 (as per your example).

Not so, according to the Treaty of Utrecht. If Britain chose to give up Gibraltar, it would first have to be offered to Spain.

Again, you appear not to have read my posts. I also said:

If the people of Gibraltar decide that remaining part of the EU (via Spain) is better than being out of the EU, but remaining British then that must be their choice.

pretty if only the SNP would stick to getting on and using the powers they already have. If anyone in the SNP and Labour had been protesting GO putting TC cuts through as an addendum to the Finance Bill I might give more credence to their wittering on about lack of Parliamentary scrutiny over decisions like eg not appointing MEPs post Brexit.

The coalition Govt - the Lib/Dems again - did untold damage to Parliamentary scrutiny due to all the Cameron / Clegg backroom gentlemen's agreements.

To give the SNP their due at least they do their horsetrading with the Greens in public.

Apparently, the UN has another take on letting people in Gibraltar deciding on its fate:" The right of self-determination does not apply to the colonists of Gibraltar, who like the Falklanders are an introduced Imperial population – contrary to myth the large majority of Gibraltarians are not descended from the original Spanish population. Gibraltar is plainly listed by the UN as a Non Self Governing Territory. Self-determination is not applicable in international law. UN General Assembly Resolution 2353 specifically asserted that Gibraltar is a colony which impinges on the territorial integrity of Spain and thus on Spanish right to self-determination, and that a referendum of the colonial population could not change that."
From www.craigmurray.org.uk

Love this article in Forbes about the bear Greek trap that the EU has laid for the UK

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/03/31/the-european-union-lays-out-a-greek-trap-for-the-united-kingdom/#25ada68d4514

This paragraph amused me: "Not only does the UK want a free trade agreement to be agreed before it leaves the bloc, it apparently wants that agreement to give it better terms than any trade agreement the EU has with any other country. I don’t know who constructed this flight of fancy, but it has about as much chance of seeing the light of day as a bottom-feeder in the Marianas Trench." (my bold )

I wonder if she reads Mumsnet - that's the sort of analogy we'd use

It goes on to talk about an "inexperienced" UK Government up against an EU that has been there, done that. Ouch.

In fact Semi, our posts crossed, so I couldn't answer what hadn't then been written.

My impression though, is that as you are a Leaver you are determined to tell us that Brexit will sort this all out. I have no idea what will happen in Gibralter - there are now two contradictory results, and the Treaty of Utrecht itself has been subsequently been amended by various other Treaties and by the one taking them into the then EEC.

I am trying to point out that the work is only just beginning, that there is what would normally be a few years of diplomacy required to sort this out. Which could and should have been thought about by Cameron and now May's Government. May delivered A50 on the date she did, not because it was a considered decision of what was best for all concerned, or the best compromise for as many as possible, but because of commitment made at the Tory party conference to appease her right wingers. For all her fine words about a country which works for everyone, she didn't bother to keep the devolved Governments informed, and her A50 letter has given the impression that she didn't even think about Gibraltar. So her own self-imposed appeasing deadline has given her a number of headaches, like a Scottish Independence Referendum, problems in N Ireland and now Gibraltar, which potentially cause upheaval to numerous people. I am not saying that this could have been avoided, but she has made what would have been a difficult negotiations infinitely worse, by her attitude.

The EU are not using Gibraltar as a "bargaining chip" in the sense of demanding something in return for not harming their interests.

It's just reverting to the default opinion of most countries in the UN - Gibraltar is regarded internationally by almost all countries as a colonial anachronism.

As an EU member, the views & wishes of the UK were balanced with those of Spain
As a non-member we would lose that influence, so the EU only need consider Spain's wishes

If it were Spain leaving instead of the UK, then the UK could veto a deal unless say Spain gave up all claims to Gibraltar.

Members normally trump non-members every time. That's why countries join any bloc.

The EU are allowing Spain a veto on any deal that would entrench or confirm the position of Gibraltar.
Any of the E27 could veto a deal that it considers against its national interests, e.g. Poland wrt its expats.

Just the planning alone for these complicated Brexit issues - Gib, NI, replacing all, the agencies like Euratom, trade deals, customs infrastructure - requires years of prep work in parallel, with expensive investment in thousands of professional staff / sector experts / diplomats

All we have are David Davies's scribbles on the back of an envelope - which he lost anyway.

As an EU member, the views & wishes of the UK were balanced with those of Spain

In short, a fudge, which suited all parties.

It is entirely up to the people of Gibraltar to decide their future.

I'm inclined to this point of view too, but it does beg the question of how far you take this. For example, should one support the right of Londoners to decide their future with regard to the EU? What decisions are devolved, and how far devolution should go, is not a simple question.

I wonder just how many of the rabid Brexiters were concerned about Gibraltar before the vote? You know, the ones who read the Mail and Express who I gather are screaming about Gibraltar now. How many Brexiters could point to where it is on the map. I recall a thread on MN a while back where people were convinced that Gibraltar was an island.

Although it's not the Scum's main headline - they Frisky Farage's first class fumble with filthy film star'. Dpes this mean that they are losing their love in with Farage, or does it mean 'Oh what a card he is!'

For example, should one support the right of Londoners to decide their future with regard to the EU

I think so? I think everyone has a right to self-determination, and if London wanted to leave the UK and become an independent city state within the EU it should be able to.

"The right of self-determination does not apply to the colonists of Gibraltar, who like the Falklanders are an introduced Imperial population – contrary to myth the large majority of Gibraltarians are not descended from the original Spanish population."

Could that apply to Northern Ireland as well?

"I think everyone has a right to self-determination,"

Well, the logical conclusion of that is Remaniers just declare "Brexit doesn't apply to me, not going anywhere".

Aren't many of the Norn Irish descended from Spaniards?

It probably could apply to NI.

Many of the NI Protestants/Unionists are descended from colonialists who were given land after England conquered Ireland.

Moreover, the creation of NI was democratically very dodgy as whilst Ireland overall voted overwhelmingly for Home Rule, there was a majority to stay in 4 northern counties. The British government expanded this to six as they thought four was too small to be viable. Essentially NI was gerrymandered as the largest geographic area where there could be a permanent Unionist majority.

swedish This is exactly the grievance of Irish Republicans and the powerful Irish American lobby.
It is mainly why the bastard IRA was able gain significant support and why bloody Sinn Fein is such a major political force.

Ireland was violently colonised by England & Scotland several centuries ago, with many settlers brought in to live on stolen Irish land.
The rule was often bloody, unfair and kept most of the native population in desperate poverty.

What is even more unfair is that, unlike when Britain gave up most other colonies, Ireland was partitioned to enable the descendants of those colonists to keep power - this was under the threat of further bloody violence by the Black & Tans, condoned by Britain.

Oops crosspost

That's what I mean - it's colonised so can't self-determine?

Well, the logical conclusion of that is Remaniers just declare "Brexit doesn't apply to me, not going anywhere

I think they could but they'd have to pick an area of the country to all settle in, and make sure they behave majority support for indy. But yes if an area of a country NI / Scotland / London / Yorkshire / Shetlands wanted to no longer be part of the UK they should have the right to decide that.

That's what I mean - it's colonised so can't self-determine?
No, self determination it those cases means that it cannot be applied to the colonising majority. It is meant as a deterrent to ethnic cleansing, or worse. An influx of colonists cannot then be legitimised by a majority vote.

The Unionists in NI have possibly been there for long enough to self-determine. After all, the USA is almost all colonists and that is a similar age.

However, it is the creation of NI itself which lacks legitimacy and denied the Irish people the right to self-determine. This is why NI remains unstable. Now this enclave risks having a hard border, impoverishing the country.