Westminstenders: And so it begins

[RedToothBrush]

Promises made that can not be kept.

We have already fallen at the first stumbling block: the desire for parallel talks on exit and future relationship that May wanted has been rejected. Not that this is a surprise seeing as we were told this.

This isn't two years of negotiations for a good deal. Forget any suggestions that it is. It's two years of damage limitation and domestic pr.

For both the UK and EU.

I do believe that May's attitude - which seemed to be more friendly in her speech and letter yesterday - has burnt all our bridges.

This talk of the world needing the EU's 'liberal democracy' isn't aimed at the EU though. Her use of the words that produced uproar in the HoC yesterday was deliberate. Why use it? It was always going to produce a reaction.

When May says she will have a consensus at home to achieve this goal one of two things must happen: to prove just how much we need the EU to make a political reversal possible at the expense of her head or to vilify the EU to a point that Remainers suddenly change their mind.

To get a good deal for the UK she can not satisfy her hard line Brexiteers. It is impossible purely because to do otherwise is like breaking the laws of physics. Trade is done mostly with who you are closest too. This is the inescapable truth. We are leaving the EU but not Europe as keeps being pointed out.

If we want to trade we have to accept EU regulations. If we do not, we do not trade. Rules we can now no longer influence by must obey.

We can not reduce immigration. We have had control of non-Eu immigration and that is not going down due to skills shortages. To combat this schools are getting less money.

In terms of sovereignty and British parliament we just gave that away. The 'Great' Repeal Act is a power grab by the executive. It seems to give the powers of the monarch to Mrs May and take them away from parliamentary scrutiny. At the same time we are forced to become beholden to Trump's America. A man who screws people for a living and has not a shred of honour.

Using security as our bargaining chip misses the obvious. If we do not cooperate we endanger Brits abroad and ourselves domestically. Are we really prepared to stop?

The opportunities of Brexit Britain are bleak. This will be normalised.

Good luck folks. We are gonna need it.

After Brexit, the UK will no longer be a partner, just another 3rd country.
So of course the EU prioritises concerns of members like Spain and RoI over a soon to be non-member

red no!!! like when the nurse injecting you says don't look, I did. I want GO back. Its more pleasant. I suppose I should thank you for ridding me of the first problem and then be sorry for what I wished for. Maybe like most brexiteers

Why is Spain's interest in Gibraltar a sudden shock? Its like being surprised Argentina are interested in the Falklands.

like when the nurse injecting you says don't look, I did

Well that was the aim.

evil laugh

Oh yeah, mn has a mug emoji. Clearly I've had enough wine now!

Don't think about this face on a plane. Ever.

Thankfully my brain is just shoving a jumbo jet into his face repetitively now. Which is cathartic.

Der Spiegel assessment of the Uk Brexit expectations (My translation)

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-fantasien-aus-little-britain-kommentar-a-1141041.html

"It's not just a geographical fact that Britain is an island.
It's also part of the British mentality.
When it comes to Brexit, one asks which planet the island is on."

Keep telling Brexiters that Germany business will NOT pressure the EU for a special UK deal:

More have joined the car manufacturers to say
safeguarding the EU single market is more important than the Uk market:

"A powerful association of German manufacturing industries, the VDMA, has called for “fair” discussions over Britain’s departure from the EU
but warned there should be “no unilateral concessions” in favour of the UK,
saying the EU single market was more important to them."

http://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/german-manufacturers-say-no-concessions-to-uk-in-eu-exit-talks/

The UK was the fourth-largest export destination for the German mechanical engineering industry, at €7.4 billion last year, behind the USA, China and France.
Exports to other EU countries, by comparison were €72.5 billion, which is 46% of all trade in that sector

btw, note how being in the EU has not stopped key German manufacturing sectors from selling so much to the USA & China.
High quality, high tech products, at the right price and that customers want to buy.

It's not the EU stopping the Uk from selling more to the world

Oh dear, some Brexiters are getting very angry.
And warlike.

Torygraph btl comments on Spain & EU response to A50 :
"This is Falklands 2017"

Going one step further than threatening to withdraw defence and intelligence coorperation if the EU won't give the Uk a deal - now threatening to declare war on them ?

Nut jobs. Let them go with their own sharpened spoons and mobility scooters

This would really add to the conspiracy theories that the BBC was anti-independence first time round

http://indyref2.scot/ex-bbc-scotland-boss-touted-to-lead-better-together-mkii

On the other hand, it could argued that the size of Scottish pro-EU vote was also down to a significant proportion of the active electorate having learnt to have a healthy distrust of MSM , so weren't so easily taken in by numbers on buses.

Strike all of the above: just realised the date The clue was the inclusion of the Unionist troll troublemaker Duncan Hothersall (And not even the mention of Russ Abbot )

In light of the above, there appears to be no rational reason for you to stand in the way of the will of the Scottish Parliament and I hope you will not do so.

rational!!

Wow.

bigchoc brexiters on social media have gone bonkers. Warships in the Med and even barely-veiled threats of nuclear strikes on Spain. These people are literally insane (I don't mean all brexiters, but the ones who post BTL on newspapers and who are active on Twitter).

What's really bizarre, incidentally, is that many of them seemed quite happy about Scottish independence - "good riddance" - but they are up in arms, in the almost literal sense, about a lump of rock in the Med with almost no strategic or economic value.

RTB, of course CA is totally above board. Their contribution to the elections of 2016 was a watershed because they identified and accessed personal preference sources hitherto untapped and then developed algorithms before anyone else did. The fact that they were used by Cruz, Trump and Leave is neither here nor there. They were hired by clients who are loathsome, but that is business.

As an aide, it is not clear whether they would have gone to work for the Clinton campaign if they had been asked to. Nor is it clear if the Clinton campaign understood what they were up against in CA. They should have, given that Ted Cruz managed to go as far as he did in the primaries. I am interested in knowing whether they dismissed CA as a threat, and if so, why.

The electoral systems in the UK and the US do not have to be vulnerable to foreign influence in order to be incredibly vulnerable to a level of manipulation that is brazen and apparently unstoppable. Already with the Citizens United v. FEC judgement the concept of American democracy has undergone a massive change. On top of that, the apparently bottomless pit of people like the Koch brothers and other multi billionaires willing and able to use their money to finance candidates, to buy media, to manipulate media, to fund 'think tanks' is an old story. Similarly, the funding of the DUP and Leave in NI has been traced to the shadowy Richard Cook and the so-called Constitutional Research Council. Is every single millionaire a front for Russia? For Saudi Arabia? How have our societies allowed individuals to become so unspeakably rich and so powerful that they can wield such power? To all intents and purposes, we have returned to the Gilded Age.

American politicians and people who are on the top of the heap in the oil business have ties with all sorts of governments and businesses outside of the US. Ties and contacts do not of necessity need to involve compromising one's position. Oil is a global business. It is the definition of Big Business, and the reality of it is that collaboration in investment and in technology occurs, and firms have stakes in each other. Presumably many Democratic donors have business interests in Russia. They certainly do if they are Wall Street entities. Democratic donors are not all 'the little people' by a long stretch.

It is worth remembering if it is such a crime to have any (alleged) contact with Russia whatsoever that Paul Manafort was once the chairman of John McCain's presidential campaign, and that according to reports, many Democrats had contact with the Russian ambassador. It would be unthinkable for politicians not to maintain contacts with diplomats in Washington, and vice versa. It would also be unthinkable for big business not to have global contacts; contact with Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Turkey happens.

What does this word 'linked' mean? It is thrown around as if the meaning is crystal clear and a very obvious smoking gun has been uncovered, whereas all we have seen all this way down the road is a good deal more heat than light.

CA might this and CA might that (cf Louise Mensch) - but has it done that?

The very real issues that exist (i.e. a Big Brother society is upon us) demand investigation, not frothing rants by Louise Mensch that end up undermining perceptions of the gravity of the problem.

Outrage from the DT, and kettles and pots.
Outrage as Spain and EU accused of using Brexit to take back Gibraltar, as MPs say Britain will 'not be bullied'
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/31/outrage-spain-given-effective-veto-future-gibraltar-eu-plans/

Agree on the tablet article, didn't we spot this one, and again it's reassuring that EU govts are on to this. Isn't German govt acting on 'false news'? CA is just a company in the groovy beardy silicone triangle of course CA is totally above board, they're the mercenaries in this war.

What's not above board is the funding trails. And techniques to target the media literacy innocent.

The class system in England is a funny old thing. It's often struck me that the aristos/nouveau russian riche and intellectually poor have a feigned/abusive relationship and natural political affinity. It's no co incidence that that Downton Abey thing on TV recently was so popular. As usual the proletariat are the shaftees.

All I can hope, as I forlornly did in November, is that Britain is doing a favour to the west with Breakshit. Who would want their own breakshit even if you do get to wave your racist flags in the air? Expensive waving, even the most ardent euro fascists will think.

Amnesty International is now campaigning on behalf of British citizens.

www.amnesty.org.uk
After doing the same in apartheid South Africa and dictatorship Chile.

What's not above board is the funding trails. And techniques to target the media literacy innocent.

The funding trails that exist are much more likely to lead to indigenous millionaires than anywhere abroad.

Techniques to target the media literacy innocent have been around as long as Fox News. Actually long before that, there was McCarthyism, before that a Red Scare right after WW1, and before that there was an actual party called the Know Nothings. Ignorance and prejudice have always been cultivated by certain parties and media determined to make money.

In similar vein, the aristocratic /owner class and the intellectually poor could get on with the business of bleeding the proletariat dry without any help from any foreign nouveau riches. It is probably not Russian oligarchs who refuse to rent to HB tenants or refuse to rent to people whose diet features a lot of curry.

The Russians were not complicit in the decimation of Britain's industrial back bone or the heartless exploitation of labour that went on in areas of heavy industry. It was the responsibility of Parliament to ensure that working conditions were not as bad as they were in mining regions and in the present day to ensure that the tax code does not favour an owner class at the expense of people seeking no more than a roof over their heads.

The Irish gave the English language the term 'gombeen man', meaning a money-grubbing native shopkeeper type who practices usury to the detriment of his entire community. This is the (British) class whose enrichment is facilitated by policy over the past few decades. The attitudes behind this policy have not changed at all since the heyday of the gombeen man in the 19th century.

gombeen man love it.

www.exportingisgreat.gov.uk/?utm_source=SME_business_audience&utm_campaign=EIG4&utm_medium=Display&utm_content=Food_and_Drink_728x90
Anyone else noticed that private healthcare ads have been weaponised since Wednesday, and Trumptonesque export ads.
"The demand is out there.
You should be too.
The UK market might seem big enough for your business. But thinking bigger pays off. Borders needn’t be blockers. Let us help you grow beyond them"

Borders needn't be blockers, eh. Try telling that to the families being split apart by the HO.

Question:
was giving Spain a veto over Gibraltar on the Brexit something to potentially encourage them to support an independent Scotland being allowed in EU? A sweetener?

www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/01/the-multiplier-effect-regional-social-and-brexit-swing-make-a-bad-story-worse-for-lab/
The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB

Firstly, the swing to Con has come almost entirely from the working class. Unlike regional voting, the baseline of the 2015 election here is, for obvious reasons, less secure. Even so, Mori carried out a sizable post-election poll which is the best information we have. Using that, it seems that since the election, the ABC1 group has swung to the Tories by just 1.6%, whereas the C2DE group has swung by some 8%. As the Tory target seats as the party heads from comfortable win into landslide territory will tend to become increasingly working-class, the vote is again exactly where TMay needs it.

I think Lab were polling third in the CDE group on the last yougov survey i looked at.

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
For proof of how utterly unprofessional, time-wasting + downright shite some of Labour’s Shadow Cabinet really are, read on. (1/19)
I sat down for a cuppa with a Shad Cab minister on Tues. All fine, friendly, discussed areas that HuffPost wanted to do more on. (2/19)
We discuss kinds of Govt cuts that hv fallen off radar. Shad Cab aide offers to ask Commons Library for fresh stats on these cuts (3/19)
Meeting ends cordially. An important story looks like it is on its way. They win, we win. Job done. (4/19)
2 days later, aide gets in touch, says stats not through yet from Commons library (MPs can ask, we can't) but still aiming for Fri. (5/19)
Friday arrives. I ring aide. No answer. I text. Radio silence. (6/19)
An hour and 15 mins later I get an email saying sorry they missed my call. (7/19)
The email then says: “When we got the library figures back this afternoon there were some quite shocking figures…” (8/19)
I’m thinking, perfect, an imp, exclusive story on area of Govt policy that risks getting neglected. Good eg of Opposition in action. (9/19)
But then I read the next sentence. (10/19)
“..On this basis, we thought it best to go with [a rival media organisation] on the story, who wanted it as an exclusive”. (11/19)
“Apologies for the change on this, do give me a call back if you want to discuss further.” (12/19)
My response was unprintable. Safe to say it involved the F-word. (13/19)
I’ve worked in Commons for 19 yrs (which is more than 10 yrs longer than this Shad Cab minister and a lot longer than the aide) (14/19)
And never have I been so appalled at such a duplicitous, discourteous and plain counter-productive media tactic. (15/19)
And I work for HuffPost. Imagine how they treat hostile newspapers, + all those readers they need to hv a hope of winning an elxn (16/19)
This of course, is on top of the fact that it takes Shad Ministers 6 hours or even 24 hours to respond to Government events. (17/19)
Lib Dems have a super-sharp media operation. SNP, Greens too all better than some Shad Cab ministers (with some exceptions). (18/19)
A final point: you, the taxpayer, are paying for this so-called Opposition. ‘Short money’ pays the staff wages. What a fucking waste (19/19)

This is the huffpost. Journalists from The Times, Buzzfeed and Political home have also said the same thing in the last two days.

I wonder why Labour is so shite at this particular time. Even with Foot, bless him, even with Brown ( who I rate, but not as labour leader) it wasn't so bad, and never before was it so important. Never. Seems strange that JC didn't mention Brexit at QT.

The Dems in US are re grouping and back to work, why not here.

www.ictsd.org/bridges-news/bridges-africa/news/uncertainty-over-wto-negotiating-chair-overshadows-farm-trade-talks
Uncertainty Over WTO Negotiating Chair Overshadows Farm Trade Talks

Brexit: Indonesia asks about market access

A question from Indonesia asked how developing countries would be affected when the United Kingdom leaves the EU. The Brexit process was formally triggered this week. (For more, see related story in this edition)

Indonesia asked what procedure would apply to grant preferences to developing countries under the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP), the system under which the EU provides tariff cuts or full elimination for various goods from those economies.

Currently, as an EU member, the UK applies the same GSP scheme as other countries within the bloc, as well as granting least developed countries with duty-free, quota-free market access for all goods under the EU’s “Everything But Arms” arrangement.

Another issue raised by Indonesia was the need for additional clarity on what Brexit will mean for the United Kingdom’s “tariff-rate quotas,” referring to the tool that involves charging lower tariffs for importing a good as long as the quantity remains below a certain quota. Sources say this question drew interest from Argentina, China, Russia, and the United States.

The EU responded to both questions from Indonesia, noting that “the EU common external trade policy applies to all its member states and the UK is still a member of the EU.” The bloc pledged to reply in further detail “in due course.”

I believe, and i might not understand this quite right, that as a third country under WTO rules without a deal we would be subject to Tariff Rate Quotas like other countries. The idea that we could have a special arrangement by sector is clearly being watched carefully and there are countries willing to challenge any attempt to get this. I think the EU allocates a certain percentage of imports to third countries but they have to compete for their share of that. You can not just export as much as you like. These quotas are far below what we currently export to the EU. In effect the amount we could export to the EU would be capped and we'd have to share this quota with other WTO countries too.

Obviously small countries like Indonesia are worried that they might lose out completely. And Russia, USA and China are all looking at it in a competitive manner. And Argentina... Well no further explanation needed.

The idea that we could fall back on WTO rules looks very dangerous indeed with so many countries lining up against us in competition and for political reasons. We really shouldn't just look at the EU and how it's going over there. We really need to also watch our backs in this direction.

Use of Henry VIII Clauses from a Scottish perspective.

https://iainmacwhirter.wordpress.com/2017/03/31/can-a-prime-minister-who-tried-to-pass-article-50-by-royal-preogative-be-trusted-with-a-henry-viii-clause/

Another article pointing out that the EU is not in its death throws; lots of positives but not perfect and with challenges ahead - and the best way to have a voice in shaping the globalisation going on.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/01/european-citizens-have-never-had-it-so-good?CMP=sharebtntw

What's really bizarre, incidentally, is that many of them seemed quite happy about Scottish independence - "good riddance" - but they are up in arms, in the almost literal sense, about a lump of rock in the Med with almost no strategic or economic value.

Whilst I don't think the responses on various SM & comment pages re Gibraltar are particularly sane, there is a huge difference between Scotland wanting independence & Spain wanting Gibraltar.

If the Scottish citizens want & vote for independence, so be it - it's their choice.

Gibraltar on the other hand appears to not want to be anything other than British.
(Going by the words of their prime minister yesterday, and by the referendum result in 2002, where 98.97% of Gibraltar's citizens expressed that joint sovereignty with Spain was not what they wanted, and they wanted to remain British).

The strategic value of Gibraltar is that it allows access to the Med.
Huge strategic significance.

Anyway, regardless of 'value' - it is right and proper that it's the people of that country who are listened to re their future sovereignty.