Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

To 4) I think you could add Universities attracting research grants which would have gone to S England Universities. Another area where the UK did well for itself. No reason why not - Scottish Universities have long established reputations.

It's quite simple to understand. We are a union of countries inside a bigger union. Two of our countries decided they didn't want to be part of the bigger union. Because they had the largest amount of people the two smallest got trumped. The two smallest now need to think if they want ever closer relations with the smaller union.

Scotland have been asked the eu question twice, and haven't been given any of their promised items by the Westminster behemoth. If England and Wales can impose their will whenever of Scotland and NI their people have a right to decide whether they can reform from within or not.

The difference of course is the EU didn't try to stop us holding a referendum. Not so much the behemoth WM is.

It's not even Wales imposing its will - they will get shafted just as much as the Scots and Irish, and will no doubt feel even more stupid for voting for it. It's not even all of England - it's essentially a cabal in the Tory party from the South East of England imposing their will.

corcory I am at loss as to how you canthat the people of Scotland don't want a referendum, it's just the SNP.

People in Scotland voted FOR the SNP. This is the party that represent them and therefore has a mandate to speak in the name of people as they have been elected.
So when their representatives are voting to have another referendum, they can say they are speaking in the name of Scottish people.
It is also worth noting that a VOTE has been done too.

In effect, this is a parliamentary democracy in action. So how can you say that people in Scotland don't want a referendum? Do yu have a Cristal ball or did you have a vote behind everyone's back to know that??

We've been told again and again that the current parliament (WM) is representing the British population even though they have never been elected in the understanding that the UK would leave the EU, nor on the back of a Hard Brexit. But we are told that they re still representing what the population wants and therefore their vite represent what we want...
Why is it different for Scotland??

It's worth noting that there was a clear majority in the vote, so it can't even be said that it was virtually a draw as might have been argued if the split went 64:66.

Sorry, 63:65 that should have said.

Just a wee correction to what I wrote last night: I meant the Council of Europe (not the EU although it's understandable why that was at the forefront of my mind ) when saying that it was pressure from them that was the only reason we (and Wales and NI) were "awarded" devolution in the first place.

Blog by a friend pointing out many of the things we have discussed here: TM's wilful ignorance of NI, her belated "tour" of the provinces (missing out the one with an immediate and pressing problem) to lecture at them, her trying to claim support from institutions who are in fact against Brexit, her one-sided view of "democracy" and her refusal to face questions or challenges prefers pontificating

https://mewsingoutloud.wordpress.com/2017/03/28/been-up-to-much/

Did anyone else listen to the people of Sunderland on Radio 4's Today programme this morning? I felt embarrassed on their behalf.
blah blah no regrets blah blah immigration blah blah sovereignty blah blah immigration blah blah get our country back blah blah immigration blah blah make the country like it used to be blah blah immigration.

Yes it was deeply depressing.

"Make Britain Great Again" one of the interviewees actually said. At which point I gave up on humanity.

Did anyone else listen to the people of Sunderland on Radio 4's Today programme this morning?

No. After QT I had a nightmare about Suzanne Evans so need to take care about what political horrors I expose myself to.

Thanks for the summary

Christ, poundland. That must have been a bad one.

If Scotland and Northern Ireland do leave the union I wonder what would be next when the people of the North and West start to find that their dreams of a sovereign land of unicorns has turned to a land even more in the interests of the Home Counties (London being the first to feel the effects). You cannot build a political mandate from the well heeled older middle class voters of Maidenhead and Guildford, even if the media barons and tycoons stay onside (and they won't).........

The problem is that as much as you would like to see it being a driver for a fairer society, it is just as likely we get an even more right wing populist government driven by the manipulation of public feeling by the likes of Dacre and Banks.....

Kaija thanks for your sympathy. It was horrible. So last night I focused very hard on thinking "opposite-type" thoughts and unfortunately ended up dreaming about Jeremy Corbyn in a romantic manner. It was so traumatic I had to tell DH who was equally shocked.

Hoping to shag Nick Clegg tonight

Poundland I recommend Chuka Amunna in your inbox.......

Of course the well heeled older middle class voters of the North were also part of the majority of the Leave vote that came from older well heeled voters, but their resentment of the South was just as powerful a motivation as it was for the left behind. I have to listen to the ranting every time I am there I do not think your average Home Counties voter has the slightest clue how divided the country is, any more than they have experienced the effects of immigration.

You cannot build a political mandate from the well heeled older middle class voters of Maidenhead and Guildford

Is that a problem ? You just need to be able to convince the people that you are shitting on that it's somehow a "will of the people", and they will have to acquiesce.

Suppose - possibly hypothetically - that tomorrow, La May announces that as part of A50 negotiations, the government has to know everyones nationalities, incomes, religion and income. And she will get them by power of jackboot arrest if you don't.

Yes, there would be protests. But how would you counter her "will of the people" argument. Especially when the BBC can make 100,000 disappear.

Incidentally, be ready for that census (and the power to demand ID). It will be the only way that EU nationals can be used as the bargaining chips they have become.

Of course the well heeled older middle class voters of the North were also part of the majority of the Leave vote that came from older well heeled voters, but their resentment of the South was just as powerful a motivation as it was for the left behind. I have to listen to the ranting every time I am there I do not think your average Home Counties voter has the slightest clue how divided the country is, any more than they have experienced the effects of immigration.

Lurking I agree with you as far as the power of the will of the people is concerned but I do not think the Conservatives yet have the heart to go that whole hog. I think there will need to be a political realignment first. I don't disagree with the potential end result I just think it will be a slower burn because we still have to have a night of the long knives, and the wholesale disillusionment of swathes of the country......

Sorry about the repeat posting, something weird happened when going through a rail tunnel....

A few thing were interesting on QT. Melanie Phillips most spoke content free. However she was telling everyone how to operate at trade deal negotiations. Eyeball and bullish behaviour. Nick Clegg who was a negotiator said that is now how trade deals negotiations work. How many international trade deals has Phillips done?

Also Evans got a big clap just saying of course information will be shared, insinuating basically like now. Now UK wants out of the European arrest warrants as well. Starmer who was DPP and head of the CPS obviously doesn't know as much as Suzanne Evans. Her vast experience and knowledge of such matters trumps Starmers. She got a big clap just for uttering claptrap of which she knows nothing.

Also Davis saying different things about the contingency plans they've done for every possible outcome.

But he hadn't any answers for the parliamentary committee. Hadn't looked into most things he was asked about.