Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

Corcory, you have always stated that you want a level playing field for immigration. I cannot see Theresa May granting your wish - she seems to have an almost pathological hatred of immigration.

But it is possible to make fairly accurate predictions about how components of complex systems will behave, on an "if this happens, then this will be the consequence" basis

And this is precisely the sort of work that the leave campaign and the May government should have done up-front. And it should have been in the white paper.

After all these months, I still can't get my head around the fact that people aren't talking more about the cost of Brexit, not in terms of potential lost trade etc, but in terms of legal costs, administrative costs, etc. We're a wealthy country, but are always being told 'There's not enough funding for this or that,' (crucial and precious things like the NHS). Yet we're about to embark on something that will probably make the circumlocution office look life a model of efficiency and which would probably fund the NHS for at least a decade.

Totally agree twofingers. It drives me insane when Leavers talk of us having our net contributions to the EU to do with as we please as if leaving is going to be completely cost neutral.

I genuinely think a huge swathe of Leavers haven't put 2 and 2 together yet.

Corcory so you want the abolition of all borders? Because that is the logical end point of what you are saying. If it shouldn't matter where you come from, then nationality shouldn't exist.

twofibgers I agree but I get the feeling that a lot of people believe that we will stop paying the EU then there will be so much more money around that it won't matter....

corcory I can see where you are coming from.
It's basically coming rom a place where you dint feel you have any more of a 'special' relationship with the EU than with anyone else in the world. Therefore the rules should be the same.

I'm wondering how you are going to deal with India asking for relaxed immigration rules if we want a FTA with them. And Australia etc...
If we are ah
If we can relax our borders for them can we also relax our borders for EU citizens? If not, why not?

Bear - I can't talk about other leavers but I can only say what I wanted to see when we leave the EU.
The fact that I may well not get all I wish for is of no surprise to me, but I have been asked what I would hope to gain by leaving the EU and that is my ideal scenario.
And no Cecil, I don't want to abolish borders. I want us to have our own controls on our own borders as decided by our own government . I want the same controls for everybody no matter where they come from. I do not want to discriminate against all non EU countries as we do at the moment.
The fact that certain countries see trade deals as a way of improving the migration prospects for some of their citizens is something I am not too keen on. There are plenty trade deals throughout the world that don't include FOM. The fact that I may not get all I wish for is by the by.

'There's not enough funding for this or that,' (crucial and precious things like the NHS).

This infuriates me too. There is a sore need for a properly informed debate as to what sort of Health Service we want and need are willing and able to pay for. That debate isn't happening properly - the NHS is just being sold off piecemeal.

I cannot think of any business or institution that would decide to make such an enormous change without doing a full cost and risk analysis. And yet the message we seem to be getting is Brexit at any cost.

I cannot think of any business or institution that would decide to make such an enormous change without doing a full cost and risk analysis. And yet the message we seem to be getting is Brexit at any cost.

This is what makes me say things like "brexiters are credulous or stupid or too rich to be affected".

Brexit has major economic implications. It will put people's livelihoods at risk. Its potential to create new jobs to replace those lost has not been demonstrated - no one (on the leave side) has even attempted to quantify this potential. In fact aside from innovative jams I'm not sure what we're supposed to be selling to these new export markets.

Surely, someone, somewhere in government has done a cost-benefit analysis? And if they have, why haven't we seen it?

So, Corcory, you want the same controls for everyone no matter where they come from. So British people (however defined) shouldn't have better rights than anyone else. Everyone should be allowed to come and go as they please, because if place of birth isn't a sufficient reason to discriminate for all the other countries in the world, it isn't a sufficient reason to discriminate at all.

If anyone has an answer to this I would like to hear it, because this is Gisela Stuart's argument and has never struck me as particularly cogent.

Misti, a lot of people in government did cost-benefit analyses and came out with Brexit being potentially catastrophic. This is why the civil service was so pro Remain. Unfortunately since the vote it has been traitorous at worst, partisan at best to bring it up. Just look at the treatment of Bercow, or the talk about Sir Ivan Rogers a few months ago.

corcory are you also for the abolition of the CTA with ROI then, as that unfairly gives the Irish immigration rights?

a lot of people in government did cost-benefit analyses

Not in this government. They didn't like the last set of analyses. Why haven't they commissioned some others? Why have they not published their work in a white paper? Because they are doing this work - aren't they?

Yy twofingers. Again what they don't say is just as important as what they do. The lack of risk assessment at all included in the white paper strongly suggests none has been undertaken. Or at least none that shows an easy hard brexit.

corcory are you also for the abolition of the CTA with ROI then, as that unfairly gives the Irish immigration rights?

The Good Friday Agreement also gives some citizens more rights than others in this respect. Let's abolish it!

I can't talk about other leavers but I can only say what I wanted to see when we leave the EU.
The fact that I may well not get all I wish for is of no surprise to me, but I have been asked what I would hope to gain by leaving the EU and that is my ideal scenario

corcory don't you see that your comment above is exactly why Remainers are so fucking angry.

You voted for what you wanted to happen and you don't even seem bothered you might not get what you wish for.

Why is it acceptable to put the whole country in such a state of turmoil to maybe get something you might quite like but aren't too fussed if it doesn't happen?

Why do you find TMs hard Brexit acceptable if it wasn't what you voted for?

Corcory The EU trade deal with India didn't involve more immigration, because the EU could hold out for the terms it wanted.
The UK is seen around the world as being in a very weak position wrt post-Brexit deals

So of course everyone tries to leverage what they want, whether it be the right to buy tasty NHS chunks, prisons, care, probation services etc or to bring in more dependents & low income workers.

It's very understandable that high population developing countries like India want to leverage immigration into a trade deal.
They have 1.2 billion people, umpteen millions of graduates - over a million new STEM grads alone each year - and they want the Western lifestyle they see on Tinternet and telly.

There is massive investment in India, but it's not enough to satisfy the aspirations of the growing young population.
This is a potential for great political uoheaval and even civil / religious wars.

I sometimes work with tech centres in major Indian cities and even there the scientists sometimes have to Skype from home, because of civil unrest, water riots etc
Terrorism too - doesn't seem to be reported much when it's just brown vs brown.

Climate change is also having a serious effect. Recently our entire tech centre had to stay home because the civil guards (whatever they are called) of 2 neighbouring states were fighting over water rights of a river, because there has been too little rain for so long.

Please calm down, folks
Let's not attack each other personally

Especially we are having an enlightening discussion with Corcory and some others.
It's really good to understand each other, to maybe find common ground and what we can unite on
We are where we are, not where we wished to be last year

So, unless anyone has a where do we go from here ?

Hashi and Misti - I feel the ROI and NI are an entirely different situation where we obviously have the GFA and all the historical problems that that encompasses.
I feel we should look at the Irish situation entirely differently in order to make life on both sides of the border as easy as possible.

But then that's where your ideal falls down. Because you fall into the right kind of immigrant argument. The uk should take the GFA bloody seriously given the history it caused there but then you could argue that with a lot of other places too. Are guilt immigrants better than non guilt ones? Do we only put up with them as penance?

Hey, I'll get on board with opening borders to the Commonwealth. Have lots of family and friends who I would love to get living closer to me 😍

I feel we should look at the Irish situation entirely differently in order to make life on both sides of the border as easy as possible.

If you're serious about this, then you should start with the select committee videos. The customs one is very dry (but instructive); the previous one had politicians and representatives of business from the Derry area giving evidence. These people were all genuinely worried about the future of their communities, post-Brexit (the Derry area risks being the most seriously affected, because of its geography, its remoteness and the relative weakness of its economy).

No one has any answers for them. And tbh, I see no evidence that anyone on the leave side gives a shit.

We're a wealthy country, but are always being told 'There's not enough funding for this or that,' (crucial and precious things like the NHS

I know and yet look at all the translators laid on for EU guests under Blair! Even little things like all the laminated signs and posters in hospitals, let alone the eye watering costs of translators laid on . My Polish friend is the only person I know to leave university 10 grand in the black! Her personal rate per hour was never less than £30 and that was through an agency so what NHS were paying would be far more than that, She went to numerous births, court, police stations etc. Roaring trade and then we are told we cannot afford enough MW etc. Utterly shocking. I think its this diversion of resources that Frank Field is also meaning when he said - vote leave for the poor - find compassion etc.

Of course translators is one teeny aspect of the whole subject.

When my DD had an accident in France - Not a single person spoke fluent English - there was no question of translators, I struggled to leave the ward and find out where I was to get back in! We were also pinned down on address so our medical care could be charged to us and we received a bill back in the Uk for 30 something Euros.