Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

bigchoc the point is there is no common ground.

It quite clear Leavers on here can not defend their choice against the economic impact it will have.

Sadly that's the case IRL too yet we're plunging headlong into it anyway.

Leavers don't even seem remotely concerned at the continual repetition of 'this is the will of the people'

Those saying that might as well say 'this is going to be a fucking disaster but you've chosen it so all I can do is grant your wish then say I told you so when the shit hits the fan'

I haven't heard 1 Remain MP say they voted for A50 because they had been convinced of the merits of leaving. It's always because 'it's the will of the people'

there was no question of translators

In other words, NHS spending on translators has nothing to do with the EU. The NHS could stop employing Polish translators tomorrow, inside or outside the EU.

The EU does create some work for translators/interpreters eg in Brussels and in some regulatory offices, but the British insistence on translating everything is not replicated elsewhere in the EU.

Re. risk assessments. I know several people working on these both in London depts. and in the Scottish government. They all show significant reductions in GDP for the next 5-30 years. The results for a hard Brexit with no trade deal are dire, and they show a fall in GDP lasting until 2050. The results for the EEA option with FM show only a short decline and much quicker recovery. These should really be made public! The EU commission of course have access to the same data, and are running the same models, so it's not like there is a negotiating advantage to keeping them secret.

That's because they don't give a shit
We are creating the new Albion!!!!
Don't worry about silly things like details!!!!
When the full cost of leaving the EU is known there will be absolute disbelief and instead of blaming the idiots who did this, they will blame the EU!
Imo we will see a HUGE drop in exports and we will have to pay ALOT more for products - all products, not just luxury brands
My food shop has already gone up since June...my petrol costs more
I suppose I'd better get used to it...
The utter contempt that has been shown by leavers (both prominent and not) towards those asking for info on where the fucking money is going to come from beggars belief
"Oh it will all work out, don't you worry dear" is about the Level of debate I see - that's when we are not being called traitors because we see a problematic future for our country....

What is striking me more than Anything is how varied the Leave group is and what the expectations for Brexit are.
I find it :( when this views are never represented nor are they taken into account. Rather they are likely to be silenced if it's not along the 'party line' (am I the only one that is alway thinking of the USSR when using 'party line'??).

What I would Ike to know is what Leave voters would like to see the governemnt do at this moment in time? A lot of Leave posters seem disengaged with the process as if now they have got what they wanted (Brexit), they can't ask for any more 'because it's all the hand of the EU and how the negociations will go'.

I mean if what you want is strong control of immigration and everyone being treated the same, why would have to settle down with knowing that it won't be the case because we will need to do some concessions for example. It sounds so downbeaten as people had been dreaming/wanting something but they have also being convinced it won't happen and they need to give up on their dream iyswim.

In some ways, I would prefer some more fierce Leavers who are ready to go to battle to get what they want. NOT the negociations with the EU but about preparing the country for what they want. And defining clearly what they are aiming for (even if it's just in terms on what to see happening on a national level iyswim)

I haven't heard 1 Remain MP say they voted for A50 because they had been convinced of the merits of leaving.

YY I said before that I would have felt far more confident about where we were going if MPs had said that, after debating and looking at the evidence, they were converted to the Brexit cause and the Sunlit Uplands, and that was why they were voting in favour. Instead we had a whole performance with conflicted consciences and heartfelt agonies and expecting disaster ahead but "the will of the people".

It's always because 'it's the will of the people'

Well I shall switch sides if the People have Willed that my friends and family can move here with ease

thefullmrexit I understand what you are saying this time but it's just your argument that makes no sense.

1. we want to guarantee the rights of those already here so the translator issue will continue
2. you've seen from your own experience France do not have translators and do recharge medical costs yet they're in the EU- why do you think we will suddenly change our process when we leave when we didn't do so when we were part of the EU?

X post misti

The idea of having so many translators on the NHS has always sounded crazy to me.
If you live here, you should have a decent level of English to be able to go shopping, see a GP etc..
If you dont then you should be ready to pay to go private to find someone who can speak your language or organise someone to be your translator yourself.

TheFullMrexit the thing about translation is that it wasn't the EU that forced the UK to do that. It's something the UK chose to do.

France (and Spain, and Germany) don't provide translators in their health services because they don't have to.

All member states have to do is treat citizens of other member states the same as they treat their own citizens.

If you travel to France, you need to have an EHIC card and travel insurance. Because in France nobody, not even a French citizen, gets treated free unless they've paid into the social security system and have top-up insurance (with a very few exceptions).

The UK has chosen to make the NHS a free service for all those habitually residing in the UK. The EU didn't force that system on the UK.

It confuses me when people claim that David Cameron did not expect people to vote Leave. As I recall, the polls at the time were all very, very close. Some even put Leave ahead and DC is reported as saying he had a lot more work to do to persuade voters - I think after he was challenged by a Leaver during a televised debate?

There is no excuse for not having prepared for this eventuality: there was plenty of warning. There is certainly no excuse for running away from his responsibilities and leaving the country in turmoil!

Bear - Listen, we were asked to leave or remain. Nothing else. I knew my ideas were similar to Gersla Stuart in many respects and that is what I voted for.
Every time we vote in a G.E. the party we vote for has a manifesto. How many of us can say hand on heart we agree with every single thing in that manifesto? And do we really get 'so fucking angry' if not everything on that manifesto is implemented? It's part of politics, all parties have wish lists, they rarely all come off. We have to accept this as there certainly wasn't a manifesto for either leave or remain so we are definitely whistling in the dark!
But what else are we supposed to do? Enlighten me!

bear great minds ;) as it happens my DH has a medical translation business so I know a bit about this. If you want a translator/ interpreter in a French hospital you would usually have to employ someone like DH out of your own pocket (in practice some doctors, but few admin staff or nurses, will have rudimentary English). I sometimes accompany English speaking people to school meetings etc as an interpreter but nowadays I will only do this if they have a good reason not to have learnt to speak French (eg disability).

Because in France nobody, not even a French citizen, gets treated free unless they've paid into the social security system and have top-up insurance (with a very few exceptions).

I know I'm nitpicking but this is really not correct and we can't ask leavers to get their facts straight if we remainers don't apply the same standards to ourselves.

Listen, we were asked to leave or remain. Nothing else.

I genuinely can't respond to people who make comments like that.

But what else are we supposed to do?

Take some responsibility for your choices and the impact they will have.

Think about how others will be affected by your decision.

Have a plan.

It is also accepted without question that everything being kept secret is a good thing. Why?

Just a small point on reciprocal healthcare hitherto - while visiting Germany I’ve had emergency root canal treatment and another time got medication from a doctor for conjunctivitis. I paid a small amount for the dentist op and cream but both were mainly covered by my EHIC card. Anyone ordinarily resident in the UK can get this free. The dentist and doctor were both German but spoke English. I appreciate this may not apply in France. This arrangement is something else we will lose.

On the NHS, education and the welfare state more generally I agree the EU did not force the UK to have free access based on ordinary residence. However the impact of FoM and the contrast with the more restrictive systems in rEU were increasingly making it impossible to maintain our chosen system.

howabout so why didn't we change our process?

Why was leaving the EU seen to be the answer?

Corcory says, without a hint of irony and in the same post " Listen, we were asked to leave or remain. Nothing else." and "Every time we vote in a G.E. the party we vote for has a manifesto."

If only there had been a manifesto and it had been clear what it was the people were voting for - or against

Well after calls for this to be a civil discussion. Badders says leavers 'don't give a shit' and Bear says we make remainers 'so fucking angry' and now apparently now I am beneath contempt because a stated the simple truth that the voting paper only asked us one question leave or remain!!!
And I am supposed to 'take responsibility for my choices'!!!
Well I was quite prepared to discuss my choices with people who are willing to listen and discuss it in a civilised manner but I will not be told what I should be doing or that I don't give a shit!

Bear we didn't change our process and instead chose Brexit because for people like me free NHS for everyone who makes their life in the UK is more important than restricted NHS access to everyone who happens to turn up on our shores under FoM.

One of the drivers of my Leave vote was that I was uncomfortable with the discriminatory nature of DC's renegotiation conditions.

One of the drivers of my Leave vote was that I was uncomfortable with the discriminatory nature of DC's renegotiation conditions.

What do you mean howabout?

"because for people like me free NHS for everyone who makes their life in the UK is more important than restricted NHS access to everyone who happens to turn up on our shores under FoM."

This sounds very reasonable, until you realise what a minuscule proportion of the NHS budget "health tourism" represents. That's before you even consider the effect of stopping FOM on NHS staffing.

Why should a migrant worker working in the UK NHS be entitled to lower levels of in-work benefits than a UK worker? Of course the answer would be to pay everyone enough not to need in-work benefits, but that then exacerbates the pull factor of high relative UK wages.