Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

What worries me corcory is that we won't export more to the rest of the world, but will instead just see a significant drop in exports to the EU without compensation in other markets. One thing that particularly concerns me is IP law. I was under the impression that exporting any patented goods outside of Europe was complicated by different patent regulations in other markets. Is this the case, cecile?
Genuine question, as my knowledge of IP is very limited and out of date.

The constant demands for Leave supporters on here to justify themselves is tiresome. Unless you think that one of them happens to be Theresa May or David Davis, the opinions of MN Leavers are irrelevant.

No more or less irrelevant than the views of the EU citizens on here who were told yesterday to quit moaning.

Personally I would find it extremely refreshing to hear a cogent argument from a leaver. At the moment, I'm left with the impression that Britain is full of lemmings playing follow the leader off the side of a cliff.

None of us know what the future will bring be it in or out of the EU

This is a line that plenty of Leavers have been saying. We don't know what the future holds so you can't say that Brexit will be a catastrophe nor can you say staying will be fantastic.
And no you can't tell with great accuracy what the future holds with Brexit because it depends so much of what sort Brexit TM will chose (and let's be honest, the vote for the article 50 has done just that. Accept whatever I have negotiated or leave with nothing. Who would vote to leave the eu with no agreement at all??)
However there are things we can say, incl the fact that leaving in two years will be a nightmare for the country or that having no FTA in place will weaken the UK position.
We can also say that we have a much better idea of how things will look like in the next two years if we we still in the EU than out of it. Mainly because leaving a trade agreement like this and being left with nothing at all is song going no one has ever done and is therefore a pretty dangerous situation to be in. A bit like poker, it might turn out to be a very good move but it's likely to end up in a disaster because our hand isn't as good as some people think it is.

So all in all, canwe tell how things will be in 20 or 30 years time? Nope.
Can we say that by going out of the eu with no real plan other than 'we'll see how negotiations are going' the uk is taking a big risk? Yes because you need contingency plans in place in case negociations don't work out the way you want. Plus you still need to implement a hell of a lot of changes to enable the country to do well (transport that you have alluded about, industry, farming, food dependency, financial sector of course ...).
You also need a plan how you are going to deal with the budget of the country. Where are you going to find the money to do all that, plus negociations plus paying what we owe the EU etc? That needs to be in place regardless of the outcome of negociations btw.
In effect what is needed is a 10 years plan to support the economy. Success of the negociations will not change that. It will only make the transition easier.
Becaus wnone of that seems to be in place or discussed in Parliament, I personally think that it will be a disaster. Not because Brexit has to be a disaster but because the way the government is going on about it is going to lead us to disaster iyswim?

Bear it does make me wonder why you keep mentioning..... Stuff like..... Doing stuff before etc. This is exactly my main gripe with the eu. They just spewed this experiment over us all with no planning. No infrastructure. On the BBC documentary a repeated theme was..... We are waiting for help, guidance etc text from Brussels but nothing is forth coming. The only clear answer comes from guy vertgasht.... Of course we can't respond to the issues the eu faces, because we are nothing close enough, we have no army etc etc etc.

Bear - We all know that DC didn't think we would vote leave so there really is no need to go on about there not being a 'plan' before the vote.

Red stripe - I think you have hit the nail on the head with part of the reason why TM hasn't stated what she hopes to get from the EU after negotiating.
There are 27 desperate countries who have to agree. I think she would be foolish to state what she want to achieve only to be shot down in flames by the 27 and laughed out of the negotiations.

thefullmrexit, I don't mean to be rude but your posts don't make very much sense to me.

No idea what the comrade comment was about and no idea what the last post was about.

I think it's perfect that she was not an open leaver at least. We're need balance.

Thanks, Cory That's a helpful response

My feedback:

• Unless the EU has decided to dissolve itself at Trump's command, they won't abandon FOM and the 4 pillars. Any such agreement could and would be scuppered by any one of the E27 objecting So, May needs some brilliant new inducement to offer everyone - fresh cake from the UK.

I really hope she has thought of something to offer that noone else dreamed of.
Otherwise, there are only 2 choices:
WTO or EEA with FOM (and something like Cameron's concessions tarted up)

• So, the UK should receive a reality check early in the negotiation. My concern is that bad news won't be given plainly to May & the cabinet - she doesn't like it - so it could only be right at the end that she realises she won't get the deal she wants.

Or brinkmanship, with the UK cabinet thinking they are cleverer than everyone else - then falling on their arse like Cameron with his referendum.

• Preparation for leaving the EEA can't wait until a few months before the UK leaves. The plans for new infrastructure, training & recruiting of staff need to start now Firms need time to start preparing their paperwork & training too.

The advantage of starting early prep is that it would show EU negotiators that May is serious about the WTO as a fallback.
They won't fully believe that she is so irresponsible or incompetent not to do any prep for WTO.

I also still do have a major issue about eu citizens being told to shut up, Remainers to stop moaning and Leavers that shouldn't have to explain their position again and again.

As logically it's the Leavers that are leading the exit from the EU, it would sound a logical idea that they are the one who have to explain and defend the way it's done?
And yes it is a pain to constantly have to defend your position. And it is a pain to have people telling you you are wrong.
But that's also what democracy is. A system where all people can express their POV and where the people in charge of the country (so here it's the Leavers regarding Brexit) are held accountable for what they are doing.

Saying that Leavers shouldn't have to explain or defend their position and that the others should shut up is shutting down democracy and the accountability that is coming with it (I do condemn insults though. They are not helping)

We all know that DC didn't think we would vote leave so there really is no need to go on about there not being a 'plan' before the vote.

DC didn't want to leave therefore he was never going to have a plan to do so.

Those who wanted it and voted for it had a responsibility to understand what the repercussions of their choice would be before they marked their cross on the ballot paper.

7 months on all we seem have are 2 vague notions

• reduce immigration
• be free of the EU

I've not yet seen anyone adequately address the issue of

• why reducing EU immigration will ultimately benefit the U.K especially If it is just replaced with immigration from other countries we want to trade with
• what the EU did/ does that is so bad we need to be free

And most importantly, I've not seen any sensible answers to the repercussions on everything thing else that will be affected by striving for those 2 fanciful notions.

Personally I would find it extremely refreshing to hear a cogent argument from a leaver. At the moment, I'm left with the impression that Britain is full of lemmings playing follow the leader off the side of a cliff.

But it is too late for all that now. We are leaving whether you or I think it's a good idea or not. The discussion is moot.

BigChic I agree I want to see the stat of a plan of how to put the country where it needs to be regardless of the results of the negociations.
And if we end up with an agreement that is close to us staying in the common market and actually we don't really need these changes, does it matter? Because surely those changes re the structure of the economy will give a lot of good to the country regardless??

I would welcome a long term strategy to make the Uk stronger economically and to tackle all the weaknesses of the UK (think lack of proper internet connexion, state of the roads/railway infrastructure that is detrimental to business, situation re our food dependency or the energy issue - energy is produced mainly in the north far from the industries that are needing said energy who are mainly in the south etc etc)
Spring all these issues would be a great thing to do regardless wouldn't it?

But it would require the polticians to stop looking at short term issues, or will I be elected again and what are the internal wars at play in my own party, and start planning long term for the good of the country.
I don't think it has been done since?? The WW2 or Tatcher??

we won't export more to the rest of the world, but will instead just see a significant drop in exports to the EU without compensation in other markets

This is pretty much guaranteed whatever happens. Volume of trade tends to be proportional to the distance between markets (where "distance" incorporates factors such as geographical distance, non-tariff barriers which increase the effective distance of markets, and the degree of regulatory harmonisation). If you can drive a lorry-load of goods across a customs-free border, as we can with all the major North European markets such as France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany etc, it's pretty easy to export - in the case of my employer, a load of widgets can be put on a lorry in southern England today and delivered to a client in France or Germany tomorrow. If we were to deliver the same widgets to a client in America, we would either need to send them in a container by ship - which potentially takes weeks - or by plane, which might be OK for high value low volume products but otherwise is too expensive. (In practice we wouldn't send them to America anyway: we already make them in our factories in the US).

The EU is our closest market and we are about to increase the distance to that market by erecting tariff and customs barriers which will increase the administrative complexity and the timescale involved in exporting. There is no way that you can replace this by selling to the US or Australia or New Zealand; it's not economic and for any company delivering to clients who operate JIT inventory management practices, the timescales involved are too long. Plus, having goods in transit for weeks at a time has a pretty major impact on working capital. Put all these factors together, and UK exporters delivering to European markets are likely to transfer investment and jobs to their EU subsidiaries in order to conserve their European market share, rather than attempting to replace EU business by selling into very distant markets.

NotDavid I agree actually.
Gong on about why leaving the eu is NOT abgood idea isn't constructive. Those discussions should have been done BEFORE.

But the discussions we should be having aren't happening either ... :(:(

Full The EU is a union with limited aims and power.
It's not there to charge in to solve everyone's local problems - that would take a United States of Europe or their mum.

There are only 30,000 civil servants / Eurocrats in Brussels, about the same as the total of local govt employees in Birmingham CIty Council
So, try to imagine how Bham could outreach to solve the local problems of 27 entire countries (plus the Uk)

Bear - you have not seen anyone answer your question to YOUR satisfaction!

I have talked about my ideas on immigration many times on these threads and also possible countries we could trade with but it has not been to you satisfaction so you just reject everything anyone on the leave side says.

That is why we can't really be bothered any more.

People like Bigchoc and Redstripe who have taken my suggestions and have appreciated my suggestions will get a reasoned answer but not when everything I say is simply dismissed by you as if I have never taken to time and trouble to answer over the months.

After a WTO deal

How long other countries took to negotiate trade deals:
Canada-US Free Trade Agreement - 4 years
Chile-US Free Trade Agreement - 4 years
Colombia-US FTA - 7 years.
Panama-US FTA - 5 years.
Peru-US FTA - 6 years.
Singapore-USA FTA - 4 years.
South Korea-US FTA - 6 years.

The commonwealth has 5 competing trade groups:

• Caribbean Community (12 members)
• Southern African Customs Union (5 members)
• East African Community (4 members)
• South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (4 members
• New Zealand, Australia (quasi-trading block of 2)

There’s no sign that these will ever merge into one convenient group with which the UK could quickly negotiate.

Btw, the EU has a FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with the Caribbean and South Africa, plus deals / pending with Canada and India.
So, Brexit would likely result in less free trade with the Commonwealth, for several years

corcory, you are missing the point. You might have reasons why you want immigration reducing but a) net immigration is unlikely to massively reduce whatever happens and b) the consequences of no FOM with the EU and no longer being part of the Single Market don't seem to be on your radar.

My argument for day 1 on here has not been that Leavers reasons are all rubbish (although many have never even given any), it's that they are not sufficient to counter the adverse effects of leaving.

thefullmrexit, I don't mean to be rude but your posts don't make very much sense to me.

I hesitated to say the same, but I don't understand them either. Can't trawl through the whole thread, but here's an example... Another big reason for was it team over there, rabid remainers again whose heart and soul wore not to in achieving a good deal.

That's about as clear and informative as the 'white paper'.

This is a line that plenty of Leavers have been saying.

And a fucking stupid line it is too.

Predicting the future of complex systems is hard, and the one thing that you can guarantee is that you will be wrong (I spend my working life making 10 year forecasts, aka being wrong for a living). But it is possible to make fairly accurate predictions about how components of complex systems will behave, on an "if this hapoens, then this will be the consequence" basis. For example, I'd be fairly confident about bits of Southern England turning into a lorry park if we fall out of the CU without an agreement, because two years is too short a time to put in place the border systems and infrastructure that will be required - and even if we did it, which we won't, there's not guarantee that the French and the Dutch and the Germans will have the customs infrasfructure ready on their side. In turn, I'd be confident in predicting that this will cause loss of market share by British exporters from which it will take many years or decades to recover. Of course, this prediction is subject to whether we do leave the CU or not - it may be that May is waiting for the more lunatic Tory brexiters to come to their senses.

I have heard similar from friends who work for medical device manufacturers, misti. Know of one small company that is and always has been British, all manufacturing based in Britain who are now looking to start manufacturing in the EU with an aim to eventually transfer all manufacturing there. What else can you do if your main market is the EU? Will result in the loss of skilled manufacturing jobs in my area, but hey ho, Brexit etc.

I think we will lose a lot of manufacturing jobs this way tbh.

We are waiting for help, guidance etc text from Brussels but nothing is forth coming.

Why should they give help or guidance? If the Leavers are apparently inarticulate is stating what they really want, why should 27 other countries have to start playing guessing games, just to help them out?

Bear - I have never said I want immigration to reduce. I have said I want to see an even playing field for all from where ever in the world they come from.
What are you talking about? ' the single market doesn't seem to be on my radar'

Grrrrrrrr!

corcory Ive said before on these threads, im not making personal comments, im talking quite generally about Remain and Leave.

You might not want to reduce immigration but plenty voted Leave to achieve exactly that.

You might realise no longer being part of the Single Market will have repercussions but far too many others haven't even thought that far and those who have seem to think some magic bullet is going to make it all ok.