Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

Maybe she's not a rabid brexiteer. But saying things like give me what I want or we walk away and hang the consequences means she's either that or she's doesn't understand the consequences of her actions either on the country or on how negotiation works.

Keep watching Trump too.
Even his legitimate (constitutionally ok, not batshit, not racist) actions could cause serious "collateral damage" to the Uk

U.S. import tax would hit Jaguar Landrover hardest

http://europe.autonews.com/article/20170207/COPY/302079917/u-s-import-tax-would-hit-jlr-hardest-study-shows

It does matter a bit, Cecile, because when the whole thing begins to unravel, it will give the Brexiteers an excuse not to step back and wonder if this is the right course to take, but to screech that it was all down to a lack of commitment/belief from a secret Remained and elect someone even more swivel-eyed.

(Incidentally, how many unelected PMs do you think the country could have before calling a general election? By my reckoning, Italy is now on its fourth successive unelected PM, would we allow that?)

Well it's taken me a while to catch up with the thread since last night!

So to answer Misti's call for a reaction to the leaver quoted i the article about the haulage industry and the possibility and ramifications of us leaving for that industry.

I have noted on here that time after time we have been told that there 'isn't a plan'! Well I will simply repeat that I don't think we will necessarily know what the government's plan is at the moment as I would think they have several scenarios on the table dependant on what the EU put forward when we start negotiating.

Obviously there are countless industries and groups of people awaiting an answer to many many complicated questions but until we have a possible negotiated settlement we really can't tell.

One thing I would say is that I can see that the haulage industry may well have to look at different routes for getting their goods in/out of the UK. It has been a bit too easy to use road transport form the likes of Dover but that may necessarily not be the best solution in the long term
At present we have a huge facility at Felixstowe where containers come into the country from all over the world. There they know what to do with regard to HMRC and are geared up for goods coming from all other parts of the world. It may be that that template should be the one we are looking at when we think of future ways of receiving goods perhaps looking long term building another dedicated container/heavy goods only port.
I have often thought it a pretty daft idea to expect so much of our haulage traffic to go through such a 'small' bottle neck port like Dover.
If they looked at funnelling non perishables through the likes of Felixstowe then that could change things significantly.

Lala, it carries on until a General Election, which will happen either 5 years after the last one or when the conditions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, whichever is sooner. So theoretically we could have a new one every week, but I think MPs would get sick of that quite soon.

corcory, thank you for responding to the NTB article. It seems your comrades have all scuttled away.

I simply don't understand the oft repeated line that we won't know what the plan is.

How did you reach the conclusion it will all be fine if you don't have an inkling of how it might work out?

Surely, if Leavers did have the well thought out reasons we are often told they did, you looked at the big ticket items like trade outside the Single Market, and pondered how they might be affected by voting to leave.

What is the advantage of changing infrastructure and routes to market compared to continuing with how things work now?

How do you justify the massive additional costs and administration?

Why is it going to be worth it?

hold things up will only damage our position by making us look weak
Our position is already damaged and we are already weak.

I cannot see why Leavers expect Remainers to come up with solutions - after 7 months they haven't been able to tell us what they want.

Bear - I have never said 'all will be fine' There will definitely be problems implementing much of what we need to in order to leave the EU.
None of us know what the future will bring be it in or out of the EU. We have no idea how the EU will pan out in future. But I personally would rather be out of it.
You talk about all the additional infustructure with my suggested plan.
Surely we will need to rethink this in any case if we are to import and export more to the rest of the world anyway!

Things move on and they have done massively in the haulage industry in the last 40 years since we joined the common market.
I can just remember when you went abroad with your car it needed craning onto the deck of the cargo boat a docks were a very different place with goods being lifted out of boats of all shapes and sizes.

If you want good infrastructure re harbour, you could even look at the Teeside/Newcastle area too. Plenty of space there that is rarely used to its full potential.
But for that you need to accept that some of the economy is going 'up North'. Another big issue in the middle of all of those Brexit issues.

As for the plan, I agree that you can't say 'I am going to get X and y' because it all depends on negociations.
However, when DC went to the EU to do his last lot of negociation, he still set off with what was a plan, i.e. I want to try and get x and y. So negotiations went on and he got X but not y.
The issue of course is to not fall in the trap he got into. Basically where people told him he failed because he didn't get X AND y but only x... which we know is impossible if you are negotiating because you always start with asking more than what you know you can get.

As far as I can see, this is the reason why TM doesn't say what she aiming for. Because is she doesn't get all of it, too many people will tell her she has failed. You can't fail if you don't tell people what you are aiming for!

As for the article claiming that she is a Remainers and doesn't want a hard Brexit... well if she doesn't, then she needs to set out a plan that doesn't look Iike hard Brexit. If she does, then she is a hard brexiter. It's all going back to the fact people believe what she does not what she is saying.

Comrade scuttling? Thank you for gotten your comrades mixed up there bear. as well for the plans there is one it's been posted on the arms of thread.

Arf! Think you have gotten your

corcory do you not think it might have been more sensible to have actually come up with an answer to the problems ahead before the referendum.

In the absence of that, at least before invoking A50.

That is what Remainers are so frustrated about. Leavers in general and most especially on here are all of the 'jump off a cliff and pray' mentality and it's economic suicide.

as well for the plans there is one it's been posted on the arms of thread.

Count me out of the pathetically childish practice of posting on this thread then reporting back on the pub thread.

It makes you all look rather silly.

BigChoc post of 11.48. Agree word for word.

No idea what the comrade comment was about either

Camerton failed to form and few reasons. One was he was not willing to walk away from from the table and they knew it. They were could also not envisage UK daring today vote leave. See guy versghast comments on BBC documentary. So why not give him anything? What was the motivation? Another big reason for was it team over there, rabid remainers again whose heart and soul wore not to in achieving a good deal. This is why it's imperative all mps get behind may, support, help etc to get the best deal.

Do you not think that the road around Felixstowe will get clogged instead then Corcory? Or the ones around Immingham? If I recall correctly, Felixstowe has quite poor road connections.

Immingham is much better but the motorway stops short, although that could be extended.

Exactly bear. Hence all the posts earlier. Most would buy brexit if anything realistic was tabled.

Arf! My phone!! Failed to get reform for a few reasons!

The constant demands for Leave supporters on here to justify themselves is tiresome. Unless you think that one of them happens to be Theresa May or David Davis, the opinions of MN Leavers are irrelevant.

Misti when someone is a politician and determining law and policy, does it matter if she doesn't really want Brexit per se? She is making it happen.

In practice it's hard to know how much difference it will make. Not having an ideological commitment may mean that she is capable of stepping back from the edge if the descent into a chaotic Brexit looks too dangerous.

Or maybe not, if she has a crowd of crazed brexiters behind her, ready to push her if she doesn't jump ...

Yes not. Just as their views on the glorious post brexit land are also irrelevant. As has been covered before on these threads.