Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

Me too Badders. The alternative isn't no Court, it is an arbitration body. The big corporations tend to win and the state, and citizen body and environment, to lose. The ECJ isn't the worst thing out there.

Last post before I get up to take three adolescents skiing (woe is me, or at least my legs).

After Brexit, if we wish to continue cooperation with certain European bodies, like those that control European airspace (and we will want to), we will remain subject to the ECJ . The difference will be that outside the EU and the EEA we have no control over or influence on lawmaking. We are rule-takers and those rules will be set down by the ECJ. Aviation isn't the only example of this; there are many other on Richard North's www.eureferendum.com blog. I hate to publicise it, not because he's a brexiter but because he comes over as a bit of a cunt, but it has more detailed material on practical aspects of Brexit than anywhere else on the Internet right now. The comments sections are good too if you can stomach a bunch of slightly racist eurosceptic old people (who are nevertheless in many cases right about a lot of things).

Wow rtb
That's awful.
How far have we fallen that that can be so outward too

Also I agree with the Ireland sentiments from rtb and peregrina
I know talking to family and friends and friends with family that in both NI and ROI they're a lot clearer on the who is being held to ransom, how England still views them and that the impact is going to hit them horrendously if TM carries on down her track of hard brexit.
In days after the referendum I heard from people who had until that point never said anything remotely negatively anti Irish saying things like 'we'll just send the army over the NI to keep them shut up again'. Something my ex army mates who served at different times there were appalled by. I really don't think the English in the main truly understand what went on over there. It's like the sea is a physical barrier to giving a shit.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/12/government-distances-itself-from-attempt-to-remove-john-bercow

This just appalls me. I actually don't know what to say about it. It is all very well the newspapers and minor conservative officials below the line commentary calling people traitors just because they voted Remain but here... Bercow might lose his job not over the speech where he might possibly have broken with convention and usurped the position of the Lords speaker, and insulted a foreign head of state, but because he "admitted" voting Remain. And that phrasing from the Guardian.

There is so much awful shit going on now, and yet we're considered doom-and-gloomy because we're not shrugging our shoulders, closing our eyes and whistling a happy tune .

YY to previous comments on Ireland.

ROI is totally fucked by Brexit, no matter which way you look at it and we have to figure out what is the least worst option. I had thought we could have been an honest broker for the UK in EU negotiations (and I think this might have been the position) but it is clear now that, as always, the Tories know little and care less about anyone on the island, north or south and will very, very happily throw us all under a big red Brexit bus. I think you are probably spot on Red - Ireland is the Tory blackmail card.

May is going to be the next in a long line of British leaders to take the legs from under the Irish people, and do it with a smile on her face. Regardless of the technicalities of the border, NI is going to decay economically without easy access to its neighbor and without any EU funding. Once the Tories don't need the DUP nothing will be given to the north in terms of funding to replace the EU contributions and it will be left fester, forgotten.

I am not a big supporter of a united Ireland - I don't think the Republic can afford it, or really wants it but I think it is probably the least worst option for NI. But, May can't just throw it in our laps as I think she probably wants deep down and the DUP have to realize that economically, it is the only option. But that needs a vote both sides of the border and as the Republic is probably going to have its own big economic problems thanks to Brexit, I'm not sure the voters would want to add the north to the bill.

The other elephant in the room is the CTA. I don't see how this is going to survive Brexit. Just because it dates from 1923 doesn't mean it is untouchable. The Irish in Britain will quite likely end up with the same status as the French or Polish. But obviously the Tories need to keep that quiet from the thousands of Irish people who vote in UK elections.

usuallydormant that's disgraceful. It seems due to the way Brexit is being handled, Britain is not just going to lose friends, but actively make enemies by antagonising some nations.

Red...tour posts are spot on but that's what right wing tories what!! Not 1964 but 1954!!
A wish to return to the 1950s "golden land" and their policies all point that way too....
Get rid of immigrants
More Grammar schools
Strip back the NHS to its bare bones
It's happening NOW in 2017!!

...wrt the cta...
I seem to remember vaguely in the early 80s (?) my mum being very worried that thatcher was mooting sending back any Irish who didn't take British citizenship.
I remember mum and dad talking about moving to Ireland (she would never give up here Irish citizenship)
Not sure what happened or if it just died a death but I know some of her friends did become British citizens so it must have felt like it was going to happen....

badders I vaguely remember it too. I remember DM applying several times and the cheque being cashed and her citizenship being knocked back every time. She qualified completely but it was always for spurious reasons like they needed another piece of paperwork that hadn't been stated and she'd have to totally re-apply, a section that had been filled out now didn't so she'd need to reapply etc. etc. Once it was just turned down with no reason given. She gave up after that. Always shifting goal posts.

The point is that the UK can do what it likes on its side ; it could even decide to have no border controls at all, if it did not wish to collect tariffs and VAT and excise duties. But it cannot influence what happens on the EU side. The border with Ireland becomes the EU's external border, and physical customs posts and customs checks will be required

A bit of a twist on her mate Donald's plan: we don't even have to build the wall, we'll get Ireland/EU to do it AND pay for it.

I think she does see it. I think that's where her bargaining chip comes in. she wants the open border, both sides of Ireland want the open border. But the nasty EU and their rules may stop it. Give us what we want or we will screw the Irish in a heartbeat and blame you.

The problem with TMs gamble is that it will increase anti english feeling in ROI and NI
Maybe that's a risk she's willing to take?

I know reading Guardian BTL comments are never good for your health but I got sucked into reading those under an article about Bertie Ahern talking about the security issues around a hard border and a potential return to violence. I have no time for Bertie Ahern normally but he has a lot of experience in this area. The general tone was, well if the violence starts it will be the fault of those terrorist paddies and/or the EU for forcing a hard border. It will always be someone else's fault.

The only way around a hard border is staying in the CU / SM / EEA. Hard Brexit means a hard border around NI.

The Bercow issue is nothing to do with whether he voted remain or leave. It is that he discussed how he voted in a political context, casting doubt on his ability to maintain impartially.

Parliamentary rules state: “The Speaker is the chief officer and highest authority of the House of Commons and must remain politically impartial at all times … therefore, on election the new Speaker must resign from their political party and remain separate from political issues even in retirement.”

YY about the fact that Irish people will be treated like the french or the German or the polish.
IReland is part of the EU and is a country on its own.

As corcory said before, everyone should be treated the same shouldnt they??

I can very well see the uk trying to have a separate agreement with Ireland but I am not sure how it will stand law wise to have the uk treat one country in a different way than the others. At the very least, It would hardly be presenting a united front on the EU POV.
But it would go very well with the article I linked to before regarding TM wish to go and have some agreement/negociations with individuals countries, and how it could well be her aim to destroy the EU by doing so.

She really is Trump and putins puppet isn't she?
They want the EU bloc destroyed
Wrong...true, but that doesn't mean he isn't allowed to vote

Mark Carney is still in at BoE, he stated his opinions pre ref in a politically neutral role. As did some others' in politically neutral roles. John Bercow stated after a referendum how he voted and why he felt that way, so was in no way influencing on the vote itself. Should he receive the same slap on the wrist as the others, yes probably. Should he be the only one to lose his role though, not at all. Also, with remain separate from political issues even in retirement, I do hope they're also calling for Baroness Boothroyd to step down her role in the HoL.

It is that he discussed how he voted in a political context, casting doubt on his ability to maintain impartially.

Do you honestly think if he said he voted Leave there would be the same furore?

A whole bunch of MPs voting Remain in Remaing constituencies haven't had the slightest problem in putting what were supposedly deeply held convictions to one side to vote the opposite way. He is only being asked to be neutral which ought not to be such a shift.

I don't believe anyone has questioned Bercow's right to vote. It is discussing it in a political context that is the issue.

If you take on the role of speaker, you relinquish your right to discuss your own political views. It's not rocket science, is it?

Remainers would not have created noises about his position if he had revealed he had voted the other way

Are you sure about that? Sounds unlikely to me.

The ref had nothing to do with party politics

Firstly, I disagree with that statement and reading these threads wouldn't lead you to believe this is the case.

Secondly, that's irrelevant. It is about political issues being discussed and voted on by the HoC. Whether they are party political is neither here nor there. The speaker needs to be impartial and to be seen to be impartial.

Do you honestly think if he said he voted Leave there would be the same furore?

Yes I do. From different people no doubt. That is why impartiality is needed, so it doesn't descend into squabbles.

He is only being asked to be neutral which ought not to be such a shift

Exactly. No problem with his vote, he just needs to be seen to be neutral/impartial now. And he has shown himself unable to do that.