Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

Soubry hasn't backed hard brexit. Of course she's a traitor. I'm surprised that wasn't being made clearer by the DM.

Fair comment RTB.

It is hard to keep up with this unless you have spare days!

Wrt rail links, I remember from many threads back that Peregrina had solid ideas about what & where rail links would be really beneficial.

(It was off the back of the HS2 stuff)

Pages too late but delurking to say have watched the BBC documentary referred to a few times earlier in the thread. Interesting watch however couple of points I would like to make

1. I don't think there are many Remain voters who are under the illusion that the EU is not in need of reform or that some countries in the EU are struggling more than others so the documentary says nothing new there
2. I don't have personal experience of Hungary, France or Germany who all featured in the programme but do live in Italy and have an Italian family. For me the documentary lost a degree of credibility when it followed the usual anglophone press approach by inferring that the referendum in Italy last year was in some way a ref on the EU instead of the reality which was it was on constitutional reform. If it was a veiled ref on anything it was a vote of no confidence on Renzi. Indeed the "winners", to use popular terminology in this context, were those voting for no change and for the status quo to remain. The 5 Star movement described in the documentary is a movement that is predominantly anti Italian establishment. I thought the documentary was misleading when it showed protests and talks of usurpers and let the assumption arise in the context of the documentary that this was all aimed at the EU. As opposed to aimed predominantly at the domestic politicians, the main targets of Grillo's endless "No's" and "Fuck offs" he constantly and tiresomely throws around. The anti EU party here in Italy are the Lega Nord. Who do have their strongholds but who are nowhere near the force that 5Star are. In the interests of balance I would like to have seen it addressed for example that the 5 star members recently voted to leave the EFDD (UKIP et al) and join the mainstream ALDE. ALDE sent them packing so it came to nothing but still - not the action of a movement who are Nigel Farage style focused on EU exit? Loads of other points I noted in the same vein which for me just seemed to be a subtle but clear attempt to hijack Italy's sizable and undeniable problems and make them fit the programme. Am not denying that Italy has issues resulting from the EU just to be clear (see my first point) but these really are just a part of the challenges we are facing and to portray otherwise is at best naive and at worse dishonest.

Me too Badders. The alternative isn't no Court, it is an arbitration body. The big corporations tend to win and the state, and citizen body and environment, to lose. The ECJ isn't the worst thing out there.

Liverpool container port is not all housing. It is a very active Free Port.

Thanks Hester for the list.

Also I found it really interesting to hear an Italian perspective, Bananagio

Belated place marking

.

The difference with Borders Railway is that it was driven from within Scotland with a Scottish Executive (and then a Scottish Government ) who took a different approach to building infrastructure doing it rather than talking about it to Westminster

Given that the first 30 miles re-opened were facilitated with a loan from the European Investment Bank, I don't see Brexit and cutting ourselves off from such sources of funding helping with the campaign to extend it to Carlisle

Some thoughts on resistance here (and on when it might be time to stop flogging a social media dead horse):

europaunited.eu/2017/02/11/liberalism-wars-the-snowflake-strikes-back/

How does reopening an Edinburg to Carlisle train line help the importing of goods to the UK ?

In that specific instance - not, I imagine. We were just talking generally about the need to improve the transport infrastructure, and this was given as an example of how the infrastructure could be improved. But since it was driven by the Scottish Government, it's unlikely to be replicated elsewhere.

A new line from Oxford to Marylebone has opened, (or an existing line was extended to Oxford). I am not sure what drove that. I am pretty sure it wasn't a Westminster initiative. Although May and Co do at least know where Oxford is on the map, which might help.

May appears to be backtracking (surprise, surprise) on what she has said about open borders between NI and RoI. It might just be that she is s l o w l y waking up to how difficult it is.

The article mentions the border between Norway and Sweden. It's worth noting that both are in Schengen, and Norway is part of the EEA. Of course neither UK nor RoI are part of Schengen at present.

Peregrina, a lot of the new Oxford Marylebone line was driven and paid for by bicester village.

It also only involved about 1 mile of new track and a new station - the rest was more intensive use of an existing line. Big effect but not big infrastructure - and it still took several years to get through planning and appeals. The link to oxford station only started about a month ago.

I've just sat down and read the last 15 pages as I've had very little time over the last few days and missed much of the end of the last thread. I will try and post a little more about what I think in the morning.

The way I see it, we've been getting bogged down in Leave do this and Remain do that too much again. Which misses the point and doesn't talk too much about policy. It matters little who voted what in the past really. Its what people think of the current state of play that we need to focus on again.

In the last few weeks the aggressiveness and the ideology of those who are leading Brexit has become a lot more apparent, even than it first did in October at the Tory party conference. It is now being talked about by every member of the party. This is very different to the party than many people who voted Conservative thought they were voting for. The liberal Conservatives in the party have been actively bullied by some of the others. It is notable that no one dared say a word against Ken Clarke. Why do you think that is? The reactions in the faces of Tories said much.

Its also been laid bare by Trump and the cosying up to Trump. I think this is making people very uncomfortable all around.

This is why I think its important to make the right distinctions here. We need to allow space for outrage against Hard Brexit from all, and that does require people to not say, leavers this and leavers that - because for starters its bullshit and its taking out frustration on the wrong people, and because it doesn't recognise the problem.

I don't think remainers necessarily have to 'understand' the other side. This misses the point that the Leave campaign was constructed to create a straw man argument. Whilst everyone is busy blaming the immigrants or trying to understand the person blaming the immigrants the NHS is getting taken down. Understanding how racists are being used to hide the NHS being taken down doesn't really stop the NHS falling on its knees. Corbyn is desparately trying to make this point and is failing miserably at it. He doesn't want to call a racist a racist because it will loose him votes. The trouble is it will not stop a racist being a racist.

This is why I say liberals are going to have to be intolerant and a bit grumpy about certain things but need to be careful in how they do it.

Anyway as if to illustrate the point Robert Peston has been asking Paul Nuttall for comment after someone else has tweeted this:

Owen Bennett ‏*@owenjbennett*
This has just been retweeted by Ukip's Immigration Spokesman and party treasurer @JohnBickleyUKIP
This is of course a spin on the Tory slogan in Smethwick in 1964 election: 'If you want a n*** for a neighbour, vote Labour.'

Oops, I understood John Bickley had tweeted a link to the last paragraphs in your post, Red, and thought they sounded surprisingly reasonable for a Kipper.

What he in fact tweeted was a cartoon of Jeremy Corbyn driving a lorry full of refugees and the caption: "If you want a Jihadi for a neighbour, vote Labour!"

RE: Borders and relying on number plate recognition:

If they haven't started the process of implementing the software to do that RIGHT NOW, I fail to see how they can have it ready in the event of a hard Brexit resulting from a break down in negotiations. This is a possibility that is not being planned for as if it was, we wouldn't even be talking about what the plan was, we'd be into the implementation stages already.

As it stands, Ireland can not comply without breaking EU law.

We would need to be able to provide proof of origin on many items, which naturally is not possible without a lot of red tape: which a number plate recognition doesn't fix.

Avoiding a Hard Border relies on work starting NOW and there being no break down in negotiations.

In reality, with the exception of Ireland, is there an incentive for the rest of the EU to drive for this, when there is so many other areas where negotiations could fall down. Not really. Especially when the EU know just how much the British government are going to drive on this issue.

I don't see EU citizens as our bargaining chips. Its holding Ireland to ransom which is our biggest leverage. Its not nice and its not pretty, and that's why we will see the issue not being discussed by our government as if they do, the danger is they will be spotted acting in an imperialist manner to our neighbour.

History shows repeatedly how the British have covered our nasty colonial side and exploited the position of others to our own ends. Whilst we've done it, it been sold to the British public as almost a noble and honourable undertaking when its been anything but that.

Ireland know the situation. It makes me angry and it makes me ashamed.

The British Media are not reporting it well. If at all. Naturally. As ever.

Over the Irish Sea is 'Far Away Land' that isn't important to the public in England. Its something the British Government has got away with for Centuries so why would it change?

Publically its all nice tones about how Ireland is easy. Publically, its all glossed over, too well. All this talk about not returning to hard borders with a mutual agreement with Ireland on the subject. Its smoke and mirrors time again...

Yeah Lalalonglegs. The image in the post above is proper NASTY, RACIST SHIT.

Particularly given the Lib Dem candidate in the Stoke by-election also happens to be Dr Zulfiqar Ali who probably would be labelled a Jihadi by the standards of those who like the cartoon.

Yes, Red, I so much agree with your post. I lived near Stoke in my teens, and haven't lived there for more than 40 years now. We went away to university/college, or even for the pull of work in London or Manchester and never went back. This is very, very typical.

There is too much emphasis on how Labour is failing. It needs many many more moderate Tories to stand up and say that this is NOT their party any more, and to defect. It is happening, but it's not being reported much, and probably not in sufficient numbers. Ditto with the Lib Dem by election wins - since May 2016 the results for the Tories have been poor. Last Thursday was quite typical - they weren't able to take one council seat, and yet the polls say that Theresa May is doing well.

the danger is they will be spotted acting in an imperialist manner to our neighbour.

I think that the Irish have already spotted this, and quite honestly, a significant majority of English, and I mean English, neither know nor care.

SemiPermanent, just to clarify wrt rekindling Commonwealth links - the UK is interested in developing trading relationships with Bangladesh, Pakistan, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Lesotho, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia, Papua New Guinea, Cameroon, Botswana, Belize...?

Massive markets all over the place there for Aston-Martin cars, British jam, Scotch, etc.

RE: Borders and relying on number plate recognition:

If they haven't started the process of implementing the software to do that RIGHT NOW, I fail to see how they can have it ready in the event of a hard Brexit resulting from a break down in negotiations. This is a possibility that is not being planned for as if it was, we wouldn't even be talking about what the plan was, we'd be into the implementation stages already.

There is no time to do it, and it does not remove the requirement for border inspections.

What everyone is forgetting is that there are two parts to the passage of any land border: for an exporter, first you leave the UK, passing through UK controls, and then you enter the EU, where you pass through EU controls. Or the reverse, of course, if the traffic is the other way.

The point is that the UK can do what it likes on its side ; it could even decide to have no border controls at all, if it did not wish to collect tariffs and VAT and excise duties. But it cannot influence what happens on the EU side. The border with Ireland becomes the EU's external border, and physical customs posts and customs checks will be required. Anyone who doubts this can now read the transcript of the NI select committee meeting on customs law.

Besides, it's not just about customs. You can go and read the blog of Richard North - a Brexiter! - for more info on this. There are also issues like veterinary checks of livestock, checks of plant material for phytosafety issues etc. All these will require physical stops.