Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

It is discussing it in a political context that is the issue.

Was he discussing it in a political context? Wasn't it a private meeting at Reading University? What was he supposed to say? The clip I saw was very measured - with words to the effect that he voted Remain and believed it was for the good of the country, but the vote didn't go his way so now had accepted that. Now, I agree that if he started to come on demos against A50 he would be compromising his position, but he has not done that.

So once again, if you vote Remain you either have to be a turncoat like May and all those other MPs, or you are a traitor.

It's going to be very crowded in the Tower.

He hasn't shown himself it at all. His actions in the house prove he is more than capable of being impartial over Brexit debates. Unless having an opinion on anything means you can never be impartial. He's state before his views on equality, that's never been an issue when he's presided for want of a better word over debates either.

Firing people for dissent (and Bercow's balanced comments were of course made outside WM) is not a sign of a secure or healthy administration.

The reason the story has surfaced at all is that Leavers want to get rid of him.

Juncker steps down une 2019

m.france24.com/en/20170212-european-commission-chief-juncker-step-down-2019-eu

I am shocked by the UKIP tweet.

To me it shows quite clearly that Labour has no choice, but saying something sensible about immigration. There is no point in trying to echo UKIP's views on immigrants/FOM depressing wages (especially as research shows that is very rarely the case).
That will never be enough to convince those that are attracted by that leaflet, but will be sufficient to alienate urban voters.

Want to know just how badly the Home Office has been treating non EU Nationals, and may have in store for EU nationals?

For the last two years or so the Asian spouses of British citizens have been refused, not just permission to live in the U.K., but even the right to an extended tourist visa to visit family. So parents who cannot afford, or are unable for health reasons, to travel to Asia are denied the chance to meet their children's spouses and vice versa. This is happening not just to financially dependent spouses, but also to educated ones with independent means and professional careers that are tied to the home country. I can't for the life of me understand how this can be rooted in anything but stereotyping and racism. I guess the target was discouraging the "Thai bride" phenomenon, though why that is percieved as a problem I struggle to understand, I know of more than one "Thai bride" caring for older men who would otherwise be alone, and relieving the burden on the care and mental health system, . However to assume every Asian spouse is some sort of threat?

Alienating the professional elites In the countries we are supposed to be making ourselves open to trade with? I have often felt ashamed to be British when outside the U.K. but this is a new low.....

Wrt Bercow, my Tory MP is one of the deputy speakers. She put a message up on her facebook page on the day of the referendum to tell her constituents that although she usually remains impartial she wanted to let them know that she had voted Leave. I know deputy speaker os a lesser role than speaker, but surely the same rules apply.

Wrt the CTA - post Brexit, the UK can do whatever it wants wrt treating one country more favourably than others.

If UK wants to continue with the people of Ireland having preferential access to UK it can.
The problem will be with Ireland being allowed to reciprocate (within the EU rules).

This means that there needn't be any problem at all for Irish citizens to continue moving freely in & out of UK - it's the opposite direction of travel that poses a problem.

Wrt the rest of UK, that would just need to be accepted & sucked up obviously, but the problem would be NI citizens (as part of UK) not being allowed to move freely back & forth to ROI - this is entirely within the gift of the EU to offer.

(I am not addressing goods & customs problems etc, but purely the free movement of people)

Further to my previous post...! If anyone feels like writing letters to the Lords, they've released the running order for Monday's debate, the specific amendment clauses that they've requested to debate and the names of the Lords who have submitted each one. So you could write to specific Lords about the issue that you, and they, are interested in.

It seems that they want to debate clauses around: (This list is not exhaustive.)
Irish borders
Access to Single Market
Euratom
EU nationals in the UK
Parliamentary oversight of the process (and 2nd referendum?)
Scotland, Wales and NI
European technical agencies
Post-conflict countries
Higher Education / Erasmus

So, list of lords who wish to speak:

www.lordswhips.org.uk/speakers-lists/20022017

Names of Lords who are talking about each issue:

www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/lbill/2016-2017/0103/17103-RL.pdf

All documents:

services.parliament.uk/bills/2016-17/europeanunionnotificationofwithdrawal/documents.html

Website you can use to email:

www.writetothem.com

Just ignore me if you're not in the market for writing or emailing; I just feel like this is a last chance for democratic representation...

So Semi - you are saying it will be the fault of the EU if NI citizens were not allowed entry freely back to the ROI when the UK put them in this position ?

I'm saying it will be up to the EU to decide whether it's acceptable to them or not.
It's entirely within their gift to do so.

It doesn't matter how the position arose - to keep harping back to that is counterproductive.
It matters how the situation is managed going forward.

Yes, the UK can do the same with the Irish, the French, the Poles post Brexit. But the general assumption that the Irish in Britain are going to be treated as per the CTA automatically cannot be held. Like everything else, it will need to be negotiated post Brexit and is a bargaining chip for May. Given that a large proportion of the EU citizens working in the NHS and in your schools are Irish, I agree it would seem to be shooting yourself in the foot to halt it.

NI are entitled to Irish passports under the terms of the GFA (and we know even the hard core Unionists are lining up to get them), so there will be no problem with them being entitled to come over the border. But how do the border guards know they are NI and not Welsh, or Indian, or American or whatever who are trying to get into Europe via the UK? Or trying to get into the UK from Europe? There will have to be a hard border to check this. It is also going to be a smugglers' paradise. There needs to be a hard border if there is a hard Brexit. That is not the EU's fault, that is the choice of the Brits.

For an EU national, being married to a British national and having British children do not count towards
a Permanent Residency paper (which is not legally required as FOM).

Having contributed for decades to the Income tax,, National contribution , VAT UK systems do not count towards a Permanent Residency paper.

The introduction of an 85 page application form meant for Non EEA in 2015 is very confusing for many EU nationals. Especially when a Permanent Residency paper is not legally required.

The demand made retrospectively for a fully Comprehensive Health Insurance for EU nationals who have worked and contributed for decades in the UK but had some gaps because of unemploymen, raising children or caring is illegal and will be challenged in the Courts by many governments because there are reciprocal agreements.

30% of EU Permanent Residencies are turned down especially the long term residents. They are protected under EU law for the next two years but could face deportation after Brexit.

Etc etc

The gripe is mainly about introducing these new requirements and applying them retrospectively: this is wrong.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/swiss-voters-accept-citizenship-rules-170212143836572.html

So once again, if you vote Remain you either have to be a turncoat like May and all those other MPs, or you are a traitor

I'll leave you all to it.

Can I just say, I really think some posters on here need to move on from the "Everyone who disagrees with us or questions anything we say is calling all remain voters traitors."

I've never called anyone a traitor but it seems that however innocuous a comment I make, that is what some posters hear me saying. With such a communication problem, it really is not worth continuing to try to discuss the issues.

A few pages back some posters seemed to be tentatively suggesting that there is a need to try to engage with moderate leavers and halt the ever increasing polarisation of views.

Fwiw and I realise some will read this as "traitor scum, you should be put in the Tower"" but I'll try anyway, I think that is completely right. I think we need to try and resolve the division because it is not helping with Brexit and it will not help with fighting the more right-wing if the Tory policies (eg on the NHS). But if you want to engage with the moderate leavers, some posters perhaps need to think about how they address leavers in general. At the moment, many leavers are, frankly, scared to show their faces, and as long as the divisiveness, putting words into people's mouths and knee jerk reactions and having to "choose a side" to every event continue, you will not engage them.

to all.

It doesn't matter how the position arose - to keep harping back to that is counterproductive.

Ooh, can we try that approach more broadly?

I can see a whole range of applications in daily life - do something that messes shit up for other people, that you were told would mess shit up for other people, then complain that they're "harping and being counterproductive" and "well it's their problem now" and "what are they going to do to move forward" if they attempt to remonstrate.

I like it.

How much are they being paid?

I think we need to try and resolve the division because it is not helping with Brexit and it will not help with fighting the more right-wing if the Tory policies (eg on the NHS).
How do you plan to contribute to 'resolving the division', Wrong? Or with 'fighting the more right-wing'?

I'm becoming more and more convinced that Ireland is the key to May's negotiation strategy. One of the reasons that I voted Remain was because I could see how screwed over NI and, especially, RoI would be by a Leave vote and I don't doubt for a moment that May is entirely aware of this too. She is going to hold RoI (and possibly the prospect of fighting in NI) to ransom to get a better deal for the UK. She knows that the geographical position of Ireland will make it very hard for the rEU to help in practical ways without UK cooperation. She is fully aware of what she is doing, it is completely cynical.

Mother, you challenge the policy not the way in which people voted. If people are leave or remain is only relevant to a point.

That's how the thread was going for a long time. We do need to get back to that more.

If we can have those type of conversations then Leavers do not have to publically back down and say they were wrong. They just have to say they think x policy is wrong. Thus pride does not come into it otherwise you end up with stubbornness and nails being dug in over issues that Leavers are not currently wedded to.

Britain Elects @britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (-)
LAB: 24% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (-)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)

Election Data ‏**@election**_data

Election Data Retweeted Britain Elects
Blah blah [insert % figure], Corbyn is [insert opinion], Labour must [insert shit recommendations], [expletive!]

I'll just pack it in. The plane is being piloted into a mountain with all of us on board and everything's fine. You guys take it from here

Marios Richards ‏*@MariosRichards*

@election_data Why won't you respect the Will of the Mountain?