Westministenders: Ding Ding Ding! All Aboard! Boris’s Brexit Bus gets going.

[RedToothBrush]

The Judges have Ruled.

They have restored parliamentary sovereignty to the people from the crown. Hard line Brexiteers don’t like it. This is how democracy looks though. Everyone gets a say, even people who you don’t agree with. Bloody Bremoaners. If irony wasn’t dead on 24th June, it was hung drawn and quartered on 24th Jan. I hope in time Gina Miller will get the recognition she deserves in history.

What does it actually mean for Brexit though? Can Brexit be thwarted by the decision?

Short Answer: No Brexit can not be stopped. The ‘Will of the People’ will be respected ultimately. (Though also worth stating the ‘Will of the People’ is not a fixed thing. The 23rd June vote was a mere snapshot of a moment in time. The Will of the People is ever changing and this should never be forgotten).

A majority of MPs have pledged to vote for a50. Whether the LDs, Greens, Labour Remainers and SNP oppose Brexit is ultimately irrelevant. Talks of ‘frustrating Brexit’ is nothing more than hot air from people frustrated they are not getting everything on their terms alone.

Why is the ruling important though? What next? What you should look out for? (Trying to keep this as brief as possible on immediate effect)

1. There is no reason (at this point) to suggest that May will miss her March 31st deadline.

2. The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill is scheduled to go through the HoC between Jan 31 and Feb 8. Two days of debate will be in the HoC on Tuesday (with parliament sitting until midnight) and Wednesday with the key vote on Wednesday. The following week on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will go to the committee and report stages and for the third reading (See this FT article Brexit bill likely to face biggest trials in House of Lords for details of what happens at what stage). That makes 5 days total and is significantly less than other important European decisions. It is being viewed as an attempt to gag parliament by many.

3. The opposition normally agree to common’s timetabling before making such announcements. Several Labour and Conservative MPs are calling for Labour to vote against the timetable. It is not clear normal procedure has been followed, on this occasion, however Corbyn has imposed a three line whip on it after a heated shadow Cabinet meeting. This seems to suggest Labour whips agreed timetable. A large scale rebellion and (more) shadow cabinet resignations could well be on the cards.

4. Lords could yet, get more time to debate the bill than Commons, due to government not setting debating time. That alone would be something of a scandal.

5. The government have conceded over the publication of a white paper and say it now will happen, however rumours are that the government are trying to delay its publication until AFTER the a50 debate has finished. This makes the whole thing a farce. Its not obvious what Tory Rebels will do under the circumstances. It is theoretically possible there may be enough for a government defeat, but that is a now an extreme possibility with Corbyn imposing a three line whip. (That in itself might embolden a few Tories though).

6. When MPs voted to support a50 in December this only passed due to an amendment requiring the government to produce a plan. Always worth remembering this important caveat. It will be omitted by a lot of media coming media coverage if MPs support any amendments or seek to obstruct a vote due to a lack of detail as a ‘betrayal’. It is not. It is a consistent request and a necessary part of scrutiny.

7. The Brexit Select Committee which is supposed to scrutinise the government just got more important. Its recommendations carry weight and will influence the decisions that MPs make.

8. Amendments to a50 law will be crucial. The SNP have suggested they want FIFTY. Most will just be rubbish, but they hopefully would have at least generate proper debate. This could be a worthwhile process regardless of how it might be framed, however the timetable makes that difficult if not impossible to do. Rather than frustrating things it could have been part of a positive process to help build consensus and tackle certain concerns.

9. Labour has been handed a chance to get out of the government blaming them for a bad deal. It gives them a chance to hold the government more accountable and get their teeth into things. It is their chance to throw away. They need to stand up and not roll over. Corbyn's Three Line Whip is exactly that. Now is the time to pester MPs over amendments. (Equally applies to Leavers concerned about Tory Brexit).

10. Chuka Umunna has suggested an amendment to give £350 million to the NHS. It would be an opportunity to draw some much needed battle lines about the future of the NHS and a chance to make ground to protect it which would be an important position for Labour. I don’t see it happening, but you can hope.

11. The danger for Labour is to join SNP in a ‘road block’ of amendments. They will need to be selective in their approach.

12. What Rebel Tories do next is important. These are both Leavers and Remainers and this should not be forgotten. It gives them a lot more power.

13. The Supreme Court ruled against the devolved assemblies. This has two effects. It might heighten the temptation and support for Independence. It might also force nationalists to work with their English peers where there is common ground. Thus unifying opposition in the United Kingdom.

14. The legal position is now established as the GFA only refers to NI’s place in the UK, not the EU. This leaves the door open for NI to choose Ireland and the EU. Similar rejection of the Sewell convention having legal effect, makes the case for a new Scottish Independence bid.

15. How 10) and 11) are handled is crucial to the country’s future. May needs to be more sensitive. Whilst there is no appetite for independence / reunification at present this may yet change as a result of Brexit. It does not necessarily weaken the nationalist’s hands in the long run. Amendments relating to assurance around devolution could still be a sticking point if other parties support. (I think fair chance they will in order to try and prevent break up of the UK. England & Wales dominated by Conservatives forever otherwise). It also put DUP in interesting position.

16. May is doing more shit stirring in NI saying the IRA needs to be investigated more and suggesting soldiers were ‘persecuted’. This is inflammatory stuff. If she carries on, don’t expect the GFA to last. At this point, I might be tempted to say, that she wants it to break so she can enforce Brexit and remove the Human Rights Act.

17. The issue of a50 reversibility has not gone away. The positions of the Labour Party and the Lib Dems would be vastly strengthened by reversibility. This is not to stop Brexit as such, but because it strengthens their demands to get a deal that they think is in the best interests of the UK because it would be potentially easier to reject a Tory Brexit. The legal case to try and get an ECJ referral is ongoing in Ireland and is important.

18. The possibility of a second referendum, has also not gone away gone away. If EU states have to agree to a deal and some put it to their citizens, that makes it more politically difficult for it not to be put to the British.

19. There is still a strong chance of more legal challenges to Brexit. There are lots of unresolved issues relating to rights which the Supreme Court did not resolve through the a50 challenge. This is for government to decide upon – and if it does not address those issues, then individuals will have no alternative to go through the courts to seek clarity on their positions. Most notably is positions of British Citizens abroad and EU citizen married or with children in UK.

20. Government has made a notable backtracking about the role of the rule of law and the authority of the courts. This is progress and perhaps an acknowledgement of how they handled it so poorly in December and how they can not act unopposed.

21. May’s speech last week was protective against this, so she can make the political point that she tried. She has in some ways protected herself against a Kipper backlash by actually proving it was not possible to carry out some of their proposals. This might actually be good in the long run for fighting the far right in the UK.

22. The Government Appeal was effectively totally unnecessary. Expect a FOI request to give someone a stick to beat the government with.

23. Don’t forget the Lords. They ultimately won’t oppose a50. It threatens their existence and would provoke a constitutional crisis which most will seek to prevent. Their job is to act in the national interest, to act for the best interests of the people, to uphold democracy and our constitutional framework. That means they can not ultimately block a50. They might insist on amendments though, especially if the Commons don’t do their job properly.

24. The Stoke and Copeland By-Elections are unlikely to be too affected by the ruling at this stage – as it is unchanged from Dec This might change though. If a50 going through parliament has been concluded by 23rd Feb, Remainers are most likely to be unhappy. If a50 bill looks like it is being ‘road blocked’ Leavers might get more enraged and motivated to turnout.

25. None of this means that Hard Brexit won’t happen. The EU still has the upper hand here. The deal we are seeking might not be possible. It does however mean that parliament rather than the government should have a more active role in proceedings.

26. Final point is that the ruling gives a chance of consensus in the National Interest and not just that of Hardline Leavers. The wording of the bill, perhaps doesn't. It looks like May’s Tory First Policy, is still full steam ahead. I thought it would change the tone of debate as the government would be forced to change tact. Its not looking likely.

Next stop on the Brexit –Aeroplane-- Bus; Trump's America.

That’s sure to be guaranteed torture to witness.

semi The whole point is that the 3rd child clause is an example of a govt change that has a worse effect on women than on men

Because a man may have a child by accident, or even by being nagged into it, but not by rape.

We discussed upthread that women were being more affected than men by a series of government measure, even when the intention was not to specifically single out women.
pp listed several other changes that affect women more than men

Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi
@timothy_stanley What if you are British of Iraqi origin, as I am? A sad sad day to feel like a second class citizen! Sad day for the USA.

Nadhim Zahawi ‏**@nadhimzahawi**

@timothy_stanley Had confirmation that the order does apply to myself and my wife as we were both born in Iraq. Even if we are not dual Nat.

Alistair Burt ‏*@AlistairBurtMP*

If my friend Nadhim feels unwelcome in the US what's going on? US used to make the world taller, bigger. Not today.

I totally agree the limit is just WRONG
The child (and the carer) are penalised.
Child doesn't eat any less, or wear fewer clothes. Can't give her / him back

Will Nadhim Zahawi be calling May out on her failure to condemn Trump's move? That would be a more powerful statement than tweeting.

Today's papers were full of the Trump/Thatcher love in, which might well join the 'Hurrah for the Blackshirts' headlines in infamy.

3 tories, so far, spoken out against tayrasar. Goody!

May is no Thatcher; MrsT never fawned or crawled to the US.
When she disagreed with Reagan, she told him so very plainly, e.g. his invasion of Granada which was in the Commonwealth
WH tapes reveal he phoned her to apologise and he was the one to try charm and a rueful grovel
"If I were there, Margaret, I’d throw my hat in the door before I came in,"

*semi The whole point is that the 3rd child clause is an example of a govt change that has a worse effect on women than on men

Because a man may have a child by accident, or even by being nagged into it, but not by rape.*

Except it does not have a worse effect on women than men.
You are still missing the point.
The 3rd child clause has equal effect on both men and women.

If a father is left with sole responsibility for his children & requires child tax credits, he will only ever get them for 2 children max.

Women, however, have some protection applied by the fact that if they were not pregnancies of choice, they can disclose this (to GP for eg) and be exempted.

It is a situation that has no real solution other than for the limit to not to exist at all.

(Not sure why the PA "Tada" from Red either actually - I have never supported the 2 child limit and have never suggested at any point that it's a good idea)

USA TODAY ‏*@USATODAY* now5 seconds ago
More
#BREAKING Kremlin: Trump, Putin agree to coordinate on fighting Islamic State usatoday.com

Yikes, I don't think I can take much more of this.

It's a bit biblical: in 7 days he's created conflict with 9 (?) nations.
Sweary time.

If a father is left with sole responsibility for his children & requires child tax credits, he will only ever get them for 2 children max.

Setting aside the children's suffering, who are the innocent victims in this, if he is the one who raped the woman, isn't this a bit like killing your parents and then pleading for clemency because you are an orphan?

I'm not talking about a rapist being left with the children Peregrina, if a couple have 4 kids for eg, the mother dies and the father is left in financial dire straits he is only entitled to CTC for 2 of the children.

Labour's CLP are mutinying

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/28/jeremy-corbyn-faces-mutiny-over-article-50
Grassroots Labour supporters revolt against Jeremy Corbyn over Brexit
Letter signed by 2,000 members causes more strife for party leader after high-profile resignations from frontbench over article 50

and China is saying war is all but inevitable.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-donald-trump-war-us-military-official-practical-reality-president-latest-a7550601.html
China military official says war with US under Donald Trump 'becoming practical reality'

May does have a sense of humour
Sky News ‏*@SkyNews* 5h5 hours ago
Theresa May tells @faisalIslam that the UK has a "good record" on the refugee crisis

Reaction from politicians with backbone

French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault: "Welcoming refugees who flee war and oppression is part of our duty,"

This was in a joint press conference with

German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel:
"The United States is a country where Christian traditions have an important meaning. Loving your neighbor is a major Christian value and that includes helping people.
I think that is what unites us in the West, and I think that is what we want to make clear to the Americans."

Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn (German newspaper interview):
"The American president is dividing the Muslim world into good and evil with this
The decision is also bad for Europe because it will increase the Muslim world's mistrust and hatred of the West."

I wish the Tories would start rebelling against TMs complete lack of principles.

Well there's 4 more today Peregrina plus lovely Ken Clarke. ( imagine saying that in 1987!)

Tried not to read that China article, red. That and Latvia are bubbling.

I would like to point out that according to ONS figs for 2012 86.5 per cent of single parent hoiseholds were headed by women, so more than 6 times as many women as men bringing kids up on their own. Any restrictions on benefits for those children will therefore affect far more women than men.
And the 'rape clause' will I hope apply to so few as to be statistically irrelevant, but does serve to demonstrate how low this govt will go to push through their aim of dismantling a healthy safety net.

This guy is good on twitter:

Matt Haig ‏**@matthaig1** 1h1 hour ago
I miss George W Bush. I don't even know myself anymore.

Number of fatal terror attacks committed in the US from people coming from all six of the banned countries = 0.

@matthaig1 more Americans die every year falling backwards off bar stools trying to catch peanuts in their mouths than killed by terrorists.

69 Americans were killed by lawnmowers last year. Trump is dangerously silent on this threat to American security and happiness.

And the 'rape clause' will I hope apply to so few as to be statistically irrelevant, but does serve to demonstrate how low this govt will go to push through their aim of dismantling a healthy safety net.

And for such modest financial gains, it just sounds like nastiness to those less fortunate.

Jasmin Mujanović ‏***@JasminMuj*

Wrote this a day ago: the chaos is intentional. It is the agenda. Lawlessness, emergency, fiat, ersatz. Constitutional order in free fall.
Folks chiming in w "...but we have institutions!" Do you? What have they done? How have they obstructed POTUS agenda? From last night:

YUG secession culmination of constitutional-institutional collapse that began years earlier. Parallels many "appeals" to institutions now.

Tonight, US immigration policy set by far right extremists in WH and border guards. Those are not "institutions" in constitutional regimes.
If new norm is POTUS does whatever he wants until/unless ACLU et al stop him, that's not a republic of laws. That's not checks and balances.
There won't be a memo sent out when law and order, constitutional govt ceases to function as such. You're seeing aspects of it tonight.
And all the folks fact checking, line reading ersatz EO: stop. When your life is in the hands of armed bros at checkpoints, you don't...
..."well, actually" them. You grovel, plead, weep, cajole, pray, are mocked, humiliated, you grovel again. They laugh, you grovel again.
That's what this EO is doing to US law enforcement; it's turning them into goons. It's undermining constitutional norms at the atomic level.
I'm white, Canadian passport, no accent. To this day, my voice breaks and I sweat ice at border crossings. Once a refugee, always a refugee
America, the world is watching these EOs in shock. The geopolitical fallout will be massive. And your republic may not survive. /End

Jasmin Mujanović ‏***@JasminMuj*
Let's also discuss this inane term "Muslim majority" country. Who decides that? What if said state has secular constitution? What if...
...you're atheist or Christian convert from culturally Muslim background? What about Muslim majority areas in non-Muslim majority countries?
There are nearly 150 million Muslims in India. 2nd largest "Muslim country." How soon before there's a tiered entry program for Indians hmm?
How should any "Muslim" person in US go about travel now? Will there be "all Muslim ban" a month from now? Who knows. EOs happen in mins.
How about non-Muslims from banned Muslims majority countries who can't convince border guard they know "Hail Mary" in Midwest English?!
Point being this is not temporary refugee halt, it's not a Muslim ban, it's worse. It's suspension of core US constitutional, legal norms.
And it's intentional, they're not "making it up as they go." They're dismantling rule of law and due process. Only Q: will they succeed? /x

Jasmin Mujanović ‏***@JasminMuj*

LT, evidence that legal, procedural norms breaking down. EOs issued w/o legal consultation. "Law enforcement" now violates constitution.
Silence of Congressional ldrs deafening tonight. Emergency sessions should have been called hrs ago. ACLU has filed but where is Congress?
There's lawyers, protestors, legislators at airports arguing legal merits of EOs w border guards. This is a breakdown of constitutionalism.
I'm having flashbacks of my mother on the phone w UN HQ in Sarajevo in April 1992 as first shots rang out. "We're urging calm, Ms." Inane.
A stroke of the pen has plunged US constitutional govt into crisis. Forget preparing for 2018, who will defend law and order tonight?
Where is the CNN graphic that reads "Constitutional Crisis 2017"? Folks like @sarahkendzior and @BrendanNyhan should be on TV 24/7.
The WH is writing things down and people with guns are doing them, that's where we are. This isn't due process or constitutional govt.
What if tomorrow, as POTUS claimed to want, he dispatches tanks to the streets of Chicago? Will that warrant some "hearings"? Astounding.
Because spoiler: random PhDs w funny names telling you you're in the midst of a constitutional crisis is no basis for a system of govt.
If when law or decree is issued and the answer to "is this constitutional?" is anything other than "yes," (and it's true!) you're in crisis.
The fact that this is now the norm, that WH is just issuing edicts, and they're being carried out; breakdown of constitutional govt. /x

As I said yesterday, I thought it alarming the number of Executive Orders that were flying out. The USA is collapsing before our eyes.

Appeaser May says nothing. Because she KNOWS.

Michael Moore ‏*@MMFlint* 5m
Everybody in NYC area-- head to JFK Terminal 4 NOW! Big anti-Trump protest forming out of nowhere! Ppl mobilizing against Trump's Muslim ban
Trump wants us at war w/ the entire Muslim world. Who wants to die for Donald J. Trump? Do YOU want 2 die 4 Trump? Everyone to JFK demo now!
If you're not in NYC, head out to the International arrivals at the nearest airport. If u live in a small town, go to where u protest.
I'm serious- we need a massive showing right now. Many orgs r joining the call! Let the whole world see we are NOT represented by this bigot

Martial law. Yes she knows. I knew that women's march could be the last.

Hope hope hope hope hope no one is hurt.

My late mum was born in Sudan (one of the "banned" countries), with an Arabic name
Even though she was naturalised British as soon as she married my dad, would she have had to prove her Christianity on visits to our US family ?
( I think that rattling in my ears is mum turning in her grave & shaking her fist)

Trump is doing all this via executive orders, bypassing Congressional debate & votes.
Like a mad mediaeval monarch
With the nuclear "football" within a few feet of him, 24/7

Is this on any TV stations in Britain?