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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

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Thread gallery
14
SalemsCat · 24/01/2017 10:15

The government should have done this properly in the first place. I don't give a fuck what farrage says.

woman12345 · 24/01/2017 10:16

Lord Neuberger appears nervous
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/23/mayor-london-sadiq-khan-calls-action-antisemitic-attacks
The personal is political

EurusHolmesViolin · 24/01/2017 10:18

And no Sinn Fein representation in HOC.

Which in fairness is nobody's fault but their own. I'll hear many things about how NI has been fucked over by others during this whole fiasco, but that particular problem is an internal one. I wonder if there will be pressure from constituents to take their seats? Obviously Brexit potentially makes a united Ireland more likely, but otoh areas with strong SF votes also had some of the highest Remain votes. So there may be.

Presume no transcripts yet?

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 10:19

I've not read all the posts , I see that the government lost. They have to vote. So what happens if the government vote not to trigger article 50? 52%(?) of the nation voted to leave the eu. Will these people have their votes denied? Sorry I'm not 100% politically minded.

This will not happen. What will happen is amendments to triggering a50 will be placed. MPs (and Lords) will ultimately allow it to go through precisely for that reason. The reason for the amendments is to protect both those who voted for and voted against Brexit. They will also probably table amendments that relate to the rights of British citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK.

Perfectly right and totally appropriate. I hope that MPs (and Lords) are willing to support amendments.

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chocolateworshipper · 24/01/2017 10:19

Of course it's the right decision.

I can't see TM getting this through by the end of March, but it's going to be an interesting few weeks

drinkswineoutofamug · 24/01/2017 10:21

Thank you red.

Gumpendorf · 24/01/2017 10:22

The judgement is here (courtesy Sarah Wollaston on Twitter)
www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2016-0196.html

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 10:22

Catriona Matheson ‏@_cmatheson

.@theSNP's 50 amendments incl:

  • UKG to publish White Paper
  • unanimous agreement of JMC
  • agreement of European Commission

The White Paper one might do very well... that's definitely one to watch. Should get cross party support from Cons, Lab and Lib Dems.

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EnormousTiger · 24/01/2017 10:23

Anyone wanting to read the judgment see www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2016-0196.html
As expected the Government lost its appeal to the Supreme Court. However it is very likely Parliament will pass the bill to give the Art 50 notice.

Nice to see Liz Truss respecting the rule of law thankfully - well said Ms Truss.
Liz Truss' statement

"Our independent judiciary is the cornerstone of the rule of law and is vital to our constitution and our freedoms. The reputation of our judiciary is unrivalled the world over, and our supreme court justices are people of integrity and impartiality.

While we may not always agree with judgments, it is a fundamental part of any thriving democracy that legal process is followed. The government has been clear that it will respect the decision of the court."

woman12345 · 24/01/2017 10:23

Meanwhile in NI:
I proposed Thursday 2 March as the date of the Assembly election. The Assembly itself will be dissolved from 26 January, meaning that the last sitting day will be 25 January, allowing time to conduct any urgent remaining business before the election campaign begins in earnest
Which bit of Montesquieu is that?
There is no greater tyranny than that which is perpetrated under the shield of the law and in the name of justice.

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 10:29

Faisal Islam ‏*@faisalislam*

Ukips @DouglasCarswell tells @adamboultonSKY that if lords blocks A50 then "800 Lords" could be created, if Commons, then general election

Repeating what Rees Moggy has said previously.

I love how UKIP want elected Lords and parliamentary sovereignty but are happy just to gerrymander to get the result they want. Tells you everything you need to know.

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lurkinghusband · 24/01/2017 10:33

Shades of Lloyd George ...

Cailleach1 · 24/01/2017 10:33

The UK could change their corporation tax right now. There is still propaganda that they are prevented in doing things by the EU. Things other EU countries are doing, so the UK is the actor or one lacking in action on such things.

I imagine the EU doesn't have a rule than the UK cannot trade as much as Germany either.

There was a chap who had signed off on an EU/Ukraine deal on 'This week' on 19/01. Radoslaw Sikorski from about 5 minutes until about 20 minutes in. He was quite good. A pity people like him weren't asked things during the debate leading up to the referendum.

It is bizarre that Con's want to trigger article 50 and leave EU but get cross and says the EU would be vindictive or giving it a special punishment if it treats the UK like any other non-EU country after Brexit.

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 10:36

IDS also carrying on the undemocratic theme by saying that self appointed judges have told the government what to do.

Yes that's called the rule of law and the government are subject to the law and can not just do what they want.

Some pretty dangerous comments floating about which have nothing to do with the sovereignty of parliament and the interests of the people.

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woman12345 · 24/01/2017 10:37

This is not about the EU, though is it.

woman12345 · 24/01/2017 10:38

What are they saying and what are they threatening? And who have they already got to?

This is not about the EU.

whatwouldrondo · 24/01/2017 10:39

Reassured not just by the judgement but that the checks and balances of our parliamentary democracy are asserting themselves and hopefully will mitigate the damage that May seems intent on perpetrating in the interests of the Conservative Party. Now she will face scrutiny, good.

Cailleach1 · 24/01/2017 10:39

Yes, they rather want it to be a coup. Couldn't give a toss about democracy other than dressing up their aims and paying lip service to it.

SalemsCat · 24/01/2017 10:40

Loving Ken Clarke on BBC.

Cailleach1 · 24/01/2017 10:42

Was that me? No not EU on this particular decision. But there are many strands in the ether right now and still being discussed on media.

squoosh · 24/01/2017 10:55

Sense prevails. The idea that something as momentous as Brexit, the biggest thing to happen to the UK in a generation, could be shaped solely by incompetent Theresa and her incompetent cronies and pushed through without undergoing democratic scrutiny in parliament was just horrifying.

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 10:55

What the Brexit Select Committee said, starts to be more important. Just a reminder:

www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmexeu/815/81502.htm

What the Government needs to do before triggering Article 50

1.Coordinating the policy analysis, putting in place the staff required and ensuring necessary coordination to support the UK’s negotiations to exit the EU and managing and implementing the decisions required to prepare the public service for life outside the EU represent a significant challenge for the civil service. The work required to “deliver Brexit” will be the highest priority across the civil service for some years and it must be properly resourced and structured by Ministers. (Paragraph 21)

2.We welcome early reports of the strength of the team assembled at the Department for Exiting the European Union and the work clearly being undertaken. We also note the resignation of Sir Ivan Rogers from his key role as UK Permanent Representative to the EU. We wish his successor, Sir Tim Barrow, well in his challenging new role. We will wish to take evidence on the issues raised in Sir Ivan’s letter. (Paragraph 22)

3.We note that evidence has emerged of the strain that preparation for exiting the EU is placing on Government, not just on the Department for Exiting the EU but on other Departments with responsibilities in “delivering Brexit”. It is essential that all those involved are clear about the objectives. This will be a matter which we, and our counterpart committees, will continue to keep under close watch. (Paragraph 23)

4.It is not yet clear what the long term impact of Brexit will be on civil service headcount, but the additional burden of delivering Brexit and the new functions that the public service will need to take on may well require, at least in the short to medium term, an increase in numbers of civil servants. The Government should also identify where the gaps in the knowledge and experience of the civil service lie and consider bringing in people from a range of backgrounds to ensure that it is up to the task at hand. (Paragraph 24)

6.We welcome the Prime Minister’s assurance that Parliament will have the opportunity to scrutinise the Government’s negotiating plan, but in order to do that the plan must be published in sufficient time before the triggering of Article 50. We therefore expect to see the plan by the middle of February 2017 at the very latest. It should be published in the form of a White Paper given its huge significance, and we will call the Secretary of State to give evidence on it. When the Government does produce its plan, it should declare its position in relation to membership of the Single Market and Customs Union. (Paragraph 38)

9.While it is clear that no part of the UK has a veto over the outcome of the negotiations, it is essential that all the devolved governments, and the different regions of England, are duly involved in the process and have their views taken into account. (Paragraph 52)

The Article 50 negotiation: what will it cover?

13.The Great Repeal Bill will introduce the legislation that ought to provide legal certainty in the UK on the day after Brexit day. EU legislation will be incorporated into UK law and can then be either retained or repealed. Given the significance of the repatriation of legislative competences to the UK for the constitutional make-up of the UK, the Bill will also have implications for the devolution settlement. The Secretary of State must publish this Bill in draft to enable the fullest scrutiny to take place. The Great Repeal Bill, and the procedure with which it is dealt, will need to be consistent with the existing devolution settlement. (Paragraph 71)

14.The UK’s relationship with the EU is deep and complex, not least in terms of the legal rights of parties in both the UK and the EU-27. It would be unsatisfactory and potentially damaging to both sides were the UK to leave the EU with no agreement having been reached. (Paragraph 76)

16.It is clearly in everyone’s interests to resolve the position of EU nationals currently in the UK and of UK nationals in other EU member states as quickly as possible so as to provide certainty and reassurance to the individuals, their families and the businesses and services that rely on them. We were struck by the fact that witnesses who were on either side of the referendum debate were unanimous, when asked, in expressing their opinion that EU nationals working in the UK should have their status assured. This must be an early priority for the negotiations. (Paragraph 87)

17.It is essential that closer UK–Irish relations and stability in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement are not jeopardised by the UK’s exit from the EU. The Executive and the Assembly in Northern Ireland should be duly involved at every stage in the process. In the light of current developments in Northern Ireland, a way will have to be found to make this happen. (Paragraph 92)

18.It will be essential to maintain cooperation with the other 27 member states on defence, foreign policy, security and the fight against terrorism after the UK has left the EU. This is clearly in the UK’s and EU-27’s mutual interests to do so and the negotiations should ensure that it happens. (Paragraph 99)

22.The Government will undoubtedly be undertaking economic assessments of the different options for market access and trade looking both at risks and opportunities. In the interests of transparency, these should be published alongside the Government’s plan in so far as it does not compromise the Government’s negotiating hand. The UK Government’s negotiating plan should outline its position in relation to membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union. (Paragraph 123)

23.A return to tariffs and other regulatory and bureaucratic impediments to trade would not be in the interests of UK businesses and therefore the Government should strive to ensure that this does not happen. (Paragraph 136)

^25.Given the importance of the financial services industry to the UK economy in terms of jobs and tax revenues, the Government should seek to ensure continued access to EU markets in financial services for UK providers whether by way of a continuation of passporting or mutual recognition of regulatory equivalence or some other means. What will be important is that the industry has confidence that any new arrangements will enable them to carry on doing business. Both the UK and the EU-27 benefit from the presence in London of a world class financial services hub and ensuring that there is minimal disruption to services from Brexit will be important for broader European financial stability. (Paragraph 143)
Protect the city.^

27.The Secretary of State has said that he wants to secure the best possible access for goods and services to the European market. The Prime Minister has made it clear that she places a top priority on controlling the UK’s borders and extricating the UK from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. The pronouncements of the EU’s chief negotiators on the indivisibility of the four freedoms seem to indicate that achieving all these objectives will be difficult. (Paragraph 162)

28.A “cliff edge” change in circumstances could be extremely disruptive in some sectors to businesses both in the UK and in the EU 27, whether it be the need to adjust to new provisions for regulatory approval, new customs requirements, or the need to adjust to new costs or restrictions in employing EU workers. The risk of a cliff edge – ie the absence of transitional arrangements – might also push some businesses to pre-empt the result of negotiations and minimise the risks to their business. For some, this could involve re-locating out of the UK or investing elsewhere in future. A period of transition, or adjustment, is a factor in most trade agreements. The Government must make clear from the outset that a period of adjustment to any change in trading arrangements or access to EU markets for UK service industries will be sought as part of the negotiations. (Paragraph 163)

31.Although the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010 provides the House of Commons with powers to withhold ratification of Treaties, this is not a satisfactory way of dealing with such an important Treaty. We therefore call on the Government to make it clear now that Parliament will have a vote on the Treaty and that the timetable for this vote will allow for proper consideration of any deal that is negotiated. (Paragraph 168)

I am fairly confident we will end up with a white paper now at least. Makes it more difficult for the government to worm its way out of accountability in future if Brexit heads south. This is why they didn't want to do a white paper.

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Peregrina · 24/01/2017 10:57

My first thought - to Leavers who complain would be 'What part of democracy don't you understand?'
Second thought was Scottish Independence just got one step nearer.
Third - May will have an almighty hissy fit.
Fourth - I wish the moderate Tories would wake up. Get a proper case made for Brexit, get people behind you.

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 10:59

Dominic Casciani ‏*@BBCDomC*

Important on Northern Ireland & Brexit. Supreme Court says Good Friday Agreement covers NI's place in UK, not NI's place in EU:

Implication is that leaving the EU could jeopardise NI's position in the UK. Which I think we already have come to that very conclusion one way or another. NI might decide to stay or it might decide to leave.

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day
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GloriaGaynor · 24/01/2017 11:03

If there is any coup in the case, it is a faction of hard righters taking over the government, driving the country through policies they have no mandate for.

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