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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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PattyPenguin · 23/01/2017 07:16

The Telegraph article is by a regular columnist. I'm not familiar enough with paper to know how much leeway columnists are allowed. I do note that the same columnist wrote an article last November headlined "We as a nation are completely unprepared for the staggering complexity of Brexit".

However, he's a climate change denier, which tempts me to believe that Brexit will in fact be a piece of cake and a roaring success.

mathanxiety · 23/01/2017 07:43

...

WifeofDarth · 23/01/2017 07:46

Porkchops I've heard that letter templates don't work, it's obvious that they have been copied and pasted and that gives MPs a reason to ignore them.
At this point I don't think it matters that much what you write - it's just important that you write.
If you're like me you're overwhelmed with the information and points that you'd like to make, then just sit down and see which one (or three) come to mind first. And keep writing.
This week something short and to the point about staying in the single market being in the Tory manifesto so there is no mandate to take us out would be enough, but it is important that it's in your own words.

WifeofDarth · 23/01/2017 07:48

Porkchops sorry have just read your earlier post - see you've already been writing, so my words are irrelevant.
I'm writing to the other side - a Tory remain MP who has completely bought 'the red white and blue Brexit' and 'an immigration policy that works for everyone' baloney.

Tanith · 23/01/2017 08:18

Wifeofdarth I think they haven't bought it at all: they know perfectly well that it will be disastrous for the country.

However, it will enable the Conservatives to ditch a few of those inconvenient expensive promises they made to the electorate in order to be elected. They'll blame Brexit for it. Why else would there be all this haste to trigger the process and to go for the worst option?

Their concern is for their Party.

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 08:20

Hester or anyone, I've done my MP letter, did you find a list of remain tories,and labour? thanks

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 08:21

Don't know if this helps, but local impact issues may help in persuasion in letters to local MPs.

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 08:48

"Perhaps the late Lord Attlee was when he said that the referendum was a device of dictators and demagogues." Mrs Thatcher

missmoon · 23/01/2017 08:51

Not sure if this has posted before, but the "Write to them" website makes it easy to write to your MP (and other representatives). You just need to type in your postcode, and it gives you the list, and a template that you just type your letter into. It then sends it off by e-mail for you, and also tracks how quick they are at responding. This is the link: www.writetothem.com

missmoon · 23/01/2017 08:52

Forgot to say, it also has tips on how to make the letter more effective.

WifeofDarth · 23/01/2017 09:05

tanith agree completely. I think i'm just going to write that in my next letter.

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 09:25

cheers missmoon and wife

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 09:29

Peace in Ireland (notice the news yesterday) and domestic peace under jeopardy, no allied defence force ( no NATO, no UN, no EU allies,), penury, broken missiles, if she can't be trusted on nukes what about trade deals and human rights? some of my reasons.

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 09:34

www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/23/trident-missile-failure-may-commons-statement--to-blame-for-cover-up-of-trident-missile-test-failure-says-top-tory-politics-live

If we have an Orwell sub thread. Watch out for the' Snowballs'. Cameron's fault apparently. Makes a change from traitors and Blair. And women, of course.

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 09:42

That's a bit rich blaming Cameron's Govt and then saying that they'd all been sacked. Theresa May hasn't been sacked, she's been promoted. Is it too much to ask that she steps up and takes responsibility?

BigChocFrenzy · 23/01/2017 10:40

The UK would have warned other nuclear powers before a test. All countries (except N Korea) do this, to avoid misunderstandings.
So they'd all have been observing from their favourite spy in the sky and favourite informers

Another example of the Tories hiding information from the people, not potential opponents.

btw, if Trident was screeching towards the US mainland until stopped, that might have made Obama tetchy. However, he's a calm, sensible adult.

I suggest May postpones any tests while Trump is POTUS.
His reaction to a misfire might leave May as a collection of apologetic cinders !

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 10:50

I am curious as to why this information has come out now. Or perhaps I am not - it could be a crunch week for May, and yet another thing to undermine her with, especially since Defence is seen as one of our stronger areas. Hence the Govt. desperately trying to pass the passing the buck back to Cameron.

I gather that 'the button' does not actually exist. I suspect and sincerely hope that the American top brass will have made sure that the missiles have been disarmed and stay that way under Trump's presidency.

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 10:53

Brexit Negotitions have started. Nope not with the EU but the other important agreementblogs.fco.gov.uk/julianbraithwaite/2017/01/23/ensuring-a-smooth-transition-in-the-wto-as-we-leave-the-eu/
Ensuring A Smooth Transition In The WTO As We Leave The EU

www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-president-balkans-frederica-mogherini-serbia-kosovo-a7541191.html
How Donald Trump could end up accidentally reigniting conflict in the Balkans

No accidentally about it. Willful ignorance at best.

John Springford @JohnSpringford
Thread on 6 problems with a UK-US trade deal. The UK govt is wrong to think it will provide leverage with the EU.
Problem 1. Britain’s trade with the US is only 1/3 that with the EU. So US deal unlikely to make up for higher trade barriers with the EU.
Problem 2. This is because geographic distance reduces trade (transport costs!). The EU’s proximity makes it the UK’s natural trade partner.
Problem 3. The single market raises trade ~50% more than FTAs in both goods & services. US deal would have to be v comprehensive to offset.
Problem 4. To be comprehensive, UK-US deal would have to replicate single market institutions – institutions to make rules and enforce them.
Problem 5. US jealously guards its sovereignty – and will be unwilling to let supranational institutions constrain its discretionary power.
Problem 6. This is even more the case after Trump’s election. His determination to renegotiate NAFTA eg. ENDS

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/01/2017 10:56

Wikileaks asking for Trump tax returns

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/22/white-house-refuses-release-trump-tax-returns-wikileaks

WikiLeaks @wikileaks
Trump Counselor Kellyanne Conway stated today that Trump will not release his tax returns. Send them to: https://wikileaks.org/#submitt^^ so we can.^
8:53 am - 22 Jan 2017

(Trump's soon going to do another 180 turn on his opinion of Wikileaks !)

Consistently, a large majority of Americans want him to release them:

"Last week a Washington Post-ABC poll showed that 74% of Americans, including 53% of Republicans, want to see Trump’s returns.
In October a CNN poll found that 73% of registered voters, including 49% of Republicans, wanted to see the tax returns."

So what is the man of the people so determined to hide from the people ? Hmm

Is it
"The returns could show the breadth of Trump’s financial interests around the world, including where he does business, who his partners are and to whom he owes money"

or even maybe that he is nowhere near the successful businessman he claims to be ?

TuckersBadLuck · 23/01/2017 11:08

Problem 1. Britain’s trade with the US is only 1/3 that with the EU. So US deal unlikely to make up for higher trade barriers with the EU.

Well there's a classic non-sequitur!

drwitch · 23/01/2017 11:18

When I wrote to my MP I kept it really simple I just made the point that the single market was in part Thatcher's baby and we would be destroying her legacy if we left it. In her speech to Lancaster house there is also this nice line in support of FOM as well

"We recognised that if Europe was going to be more than a slogan then we must get the basics right. That meant action
Action to get rid of the barriers. Action to make it possible for insurance companies to do business throughout the Community. Action to let people practice their trades and professions freely throughout the Community. Action to remove the customs barriers and formalities so that goods can circulate[fo 10] freely and without time-consuming delays. Action to make sure that any company could sell its goods and services without let or hindrance. Action to secure free movement of capital throughout the Community"

Bolshybookworm · 23/01/2017 11:23

My MP is a Brexit and Trump supporting right wing Tory nut job. i think I'm going to send him an interview incredibly dry letter asking about the likely impact on clinical research of leaving the single market. Anything else will probably see me labelled as a hysterical feministliberalmetropolitanelite Hmm

drwitch · 23/01/2017 11:27

mine too Bolshy but the thing is that most of those are pathological about their worship of Thatcher so this is (I think) where to get them

Bolshybookworm · 23/01/2017 11:29

His is not a safe Tory seat, by any means. It's a very mixed area (areas of low and high deprivation). I think he's kept it because although his politics are abhorrent he does a decent job as a local MP. Will be very interesting to see how he does at the next election though, he has pissed off A LOT of people locally and possibly made himself a little too visible in the media. There will be a concerted campaign to oust him.

Bolshybookworm · 23/01/2017 11:30

Hmm, he's pretty sexist. Not sure on his stance on Thatcher, will have to do a bit of research.....