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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

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BigChocFrenzy · 21/01/2017 15:52

In Germany, the leader of the hard left party die Linke has received much praise from hard right AfD for her speeches attacking Merkel, immigrants & refugees for terrorist attacks in Germany.

(Die Linke is a 2007 merger of the successor to the East German communist party and the hard left from West Germany)

So here too, we find the extremes of left and right agreeing. Not positive.

The effect on voters ?
I'm not eligible to vote in the German GE, but I will be in the 2019 Euro elections. I'll vote Merkel / CDU if their policy remains progressive.

I'm a centrist voter, voting on values not party
I've never voted conservative in any UK GE or local election, but I also would there too, for a liberal Tory Remain MP who promised to stay that way.

BlueEyeshadow · 21/01/2017 16:05

Clive Lewis gets it:

twitter.com/labourlewis/status/822833185302204418

Sarah Gillett ‏***@SarahGillett5 2h2 hours ago
@labourlewis* If it is true that you will vote against A50 in parliament then THANK YOU. Brexit will rip the U.K. apart.

Clive Lewis MP ‏*****@labourlewis** 17m17 minutes ago
Hi @SarahGillett5* I'll vote for A50 when content parliament has won the necessary bill safeguards to protect jobs, workers rights & the envt

Alasdair Cameron ‏**@ACameronFOE** 13m13 minutes ago
@labourlewis surely also must have full Parliamentary control - proper Bill process, amendments, debates. No gun to Parliaments head.

Clive Lewis MP Verified account
‏*****@labourlewis**
Yup @ACameronFOE* That's parliamentary sovereignty right there. That's what 'take back control' means to me 1/2

Steve Monteith ‏*@MadMontesaurus* 12m12 minutes ago
@labourlewis @SarahGillett5 Correct answer, please pass on to Jeremy

---
I wish he was still our MP. Still no response from our current one to anything I've sent him since the referendum.

howabout · 21/01/2017 16:45

Bigchoc the Ashcroft polling numbers were tiny for the Ref and not countrywide. Also the Ref voting areas do not directly map to constituencies. However it is possible to do what I have just done with Copeland all over the country. Broadly speaking Labour voting inner city areas, especially London were heavily Remain but everywhere else was Leave. This is why the conclusion that 70% of Labour seats voted Leave. I am not sure how typical it is that in countryside Copeland Conservatives are the challengers whereas in City Stoke UKIP are cutting into the Labour majority and could flip to Conservative.

HashiAsLarry · 21/01/2017 17:10

Clive Lewis doing what all MPs should be doing. That's their role after all. At least one of them gets it.

SwedishEdith · 21/01/2017 17:55

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/switzerland-rejects-post-brexit-alliance-uk-aganist-eu-european-union-deal-swiss-foreign-secretary-a7536896.html

Switzerland rejects post-Brexit alliance with UK against EU

"Swiss foreign minister dashes bankers' hopes the two countries could work together to negotiate favourable terms of access to single market.

“We want good, maybe even closer ties with Britain. But we will not forge an alliance with Britain against the EU.”

This dashes the hopes of businesses that the countries could work together to negotiate with the EU over terms of access to the single market while being able to restrict freedom of movement."

lalalonglegs · 21/01/2017 18:21

Well, quite clearly Switzerland has been brainwashed. Why else would it be rejecting this opportunity to join with us in destroying its economy and undermine its relationship with its established trading partners?

TheElementsSong · 21/01/2017 18:33

Switzerland are administering a punishment beating! Shock

woman12345 · 21/01/2017 18:42

London women's march was brilliant! 100,000? So big it took 2hrs to get out of Grosvenor Square by US Embassy. Anti Trump, anti Brexit, pro human rights, completely peaceful, nearly all women. Saw a lib dem placard, no labour but some, few few trots.
More on the way, and AC Grayling had a suggestion too. Smile

BigChocFrenzy · 21/01/2017 18:43

So is India. So is Australia.
The whole world is punishing us.
But we sell cars and ... our banks are the best
Brexit would be brilliant if it weren't for the other 195 countries being bullies < sulks >

Kaija · 21/01/2017 18:45

Had to work this morning so missed it, but was there at the end. Fantastic atmosphere in London this afternoon. What did AC Grayling say?

woman12345 · 21/01/2017 18:46

NYT's article on Banks' desire to destroy conservative party(hit paywall so no link). Is he overplaying his hand?

lalalonglegs · 21/01/2017 18:52

Don't forget our jam, BigChoc, where will the rest of the world be without our jam?

I was,also on the London March with 12yo daughter - her first march . It was a remarkably cheerful event considering we all knew that we're heading to he'll in a handcart. I suspect I will be marching a lot over the coming years .

woman12345 · 21/01/2017 18:58

Smile la la and kaija. Train into London was like a Freedom Ride, at each stop more were getting in with placards, never seen anything like it on a commuter line!
Felt emotional at a placard with beautiful picture of Jo Cox. Evette Cooper was one of the speakers? There were too many people for me to hear the speeches at Trafalgar Square. I big group from Unison and BA, but mainly just unaffiliated humans! I don't think there's ever been such a large women's march in this country.

The Today programme trailed it at 8am headlines, strangely.Hmm

Mistigri · 21/01/2017 18:58

I expect a nationalist, immigrant-bashing party with leftwing economic policies could do well.
But isn't that basically the French Front National ? And half of Ukip ?

The problem with combining far right social policies and protectionist economic policies is that this tends to appeal to the stupider end of the voting spectrum. That makes it hard to build a party with effective structures, capable of elaborating detailed policy. Where such parties do get into power (eg in municipal elections) they are often hugely inept.

The FN in France has done well at municipal level, but councillors elected under the FN banner tend (if they are any good) to realise rather quickly that the FN is basically a money-making scam for its executive and couldn't organise its way out of a paper bag. They promptly resign from the party and become independent. This makes it very hard for the FN to build a grass-roots movement and to expand its political reach to more educated socially conservative voters.

Much the same could be applied to UKIP, which without Farage gives every impression of being totally non-viable.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/01/2017 19:03

Good on ya, woman !
Well done to you and DD, lala !
You are giving her a great role model, to be a strong woman
< fist bumps to all >

( there are marches in big German cities too, but I'm in my jimjams, tailend of flu )

ElenaGreco123 · 21/01/2017 19:05

Marking my place. I took a few days off and I cannot catch up.

Peregrina · 21/01/2017 19:06

London women's march was brilliant! 100,000?
So this will be reported in the Press as 10,000. It was ever thus. We went on an anti Cruise missile demo in the early 80s. We had been on the march, been to Hyde Park to hear the speeches and were leaving, and still coaches of people were arriving and marching.

woman12345 · 21/01/2017 19:11

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38700123
London organisers announced on stage that between 80,000 and 100,000 women and men had taken part in the rally.
Split the difference?!!! Twas ever thus with demo numbers, but biggest women's march I've been on. And beautiful and peaceful, lovely! Funny to stand by the old South African embassy, where there were some very unpeaceful anti apartheid marches, and think, well, some is this is worth it! And the poll tax etc etc!

Chicago march was 150, 000 so they couldn't march! Just had a rally!!

woman12345 · 21/01/2017 19:13

thanks BigChoc get well soon Flowers

BigChocFrenzy · 21/01/2017 19:17

woman The NYT Aaron Banks article:

www.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/world/europe/arron-banks-brexit-britain.html?_r=0

Banks told Trump during Presidential campaign:
"Never apologize"
“Facts are white noise,"
“Emotions rule.”

Brexit & Trump campaign tactics
"We realized we were up against the same kind of enemy and we had to play dirty, and we did"

New party to replace UKIP
He "is considering starting and funding a new citizens’ movement, tentatively called Patriotic Alliance, based on the model of Italy’s Five Star Movement, to gather Leave voters across traditional party lines, perhaps as early as this spring."

because UKIP is now “stuffed” with people who use it as “a piggy bank rather than a vehicle for political change”

"Mounting frustration against the Tory government and a Labour Party in disarray has created an opportunity for a political movement that, like Trump, isn’t left or right but that is radical”

Brexit
"only after paying for a private poll of 50,000 Britons ahead of the referendum that he and his team realized that immigration, not sovereignty, was the defining issue that would push people to vote to leave."

BigChocFrenzy · 21/01/2017 19:22

Aaron Arron !

Peregrina · 21/01/2017 19:23

Brexit "only after paying for a private poll of 50,000 Britons ahead of the referendum that he and his team realized that immigration, not sovereignty, was the defining issue that would push people to vote to leave."

Sadly, he is probably correct there, even though this was mostly the people least affected by immigration.

user1484653592 · 21/01/2017 19:44

Dh, dds and I went also to the march. It was one of the most refreshing and positive things I have engaged in since Brexit. The relaxed atmosphere, the very witty posters and gorgeous albeit sightly freezing weather leave me feeling... cleansed somehow. It was the antidote of gloomy digital news. Thanks you fellow marchers.

whatwouldrondo · 21/01/2017 19:55

woman Policeman told me they planned for 30000 rather than the estimated 100000 that had turned up and so they were having on the hoof to effectively close the roads on the route and let the marchers spill over into the other traffic lanes. Hence all the pissed off motorists stuck there for hours. It took us an hour and a half just to get into Grosvenor Square to the supposed start of the march, the surrounding roads were so jammed with marchers.

It was a very good humoured inclusive march, met a complete mix of ages and backgrounds, though glad to see so many millennials there. Who says they are disinterested? Great humour on the placards too, my favourite was "Women need Trump like fish need climate change" though "I don't usually march but honestly" and the Liverpudlians who had "Even scousers think you are too orange Donald" came close. A few EU flags, though what everyone seemed agreed on was that things were changing for the worse and basic values concerning what was acceptable in the treatment of others, particularly minorities were being undermined, and they just felt they had to do something. I saw lots of handwringing on here about trans issues but that really was not what the march was about, it was definitely focusing on unity rather than division. Beneath the jollity though people do feel very strongly indeed.

Not seen it on the news but I gather that there was a big contingent of disabled going thanks to the organisers going to some lengths to make it accessible, I hope that was successfully done as it often falls down in the execution.

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