March in March

[Niamer]

Remainers, regretters and non-voters, please come!

www.uniteforeurope.org

Farage hasn't done all that well so far in getting his people out on demos. There was the one due last December - thousands were supposedly descending on London. It didn't happen. A few days later, about a 100 managed to congregate outside Westminster.

Contrast that with the Women's March the other week, when thousands demonstrated.

I don't think it is bollocks, although I don't think Farage himself could organise a storm in a teacup.

I think the anger and bitterness that has come to the fore in relation to Brexit has nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with large swathes of the country being ignored by successive governments for 30 years.

People have repeatedly said, all over the country, they have nothing and have nothing to lose. And so have nothing to lose from civil disorder.
One can dismiss those threats, just as threats of voting Leave were dismissed, but - I think we do so at our peril.

I'm sure Misti doesn't visit the kind of insalubrious places on the net that I do, but a consistent refrain by large numbers of people online is that if they don't get what they want they will take to the streets.

Ok so many people are just trolling, some even have health issues that would preclude rioting. But if even a fraction follow through, then there's a problem.

I wasn't surprised by the 2010 riots and I think the tensions that triggered those are still simmering. They were suppressed rather than resolved.

I grew up in the 80s when there were riots all over the country. There's a similar sense of fury and injustice. You can say that young people in inner cities are more likely to vote Remain, but that is only really true of London. Other cities have more support for Leave. And even so London support for Leave was 40% overall.

We're now in a world where death threats to MPs are normal. It's already crossed over into the actual murder of Jo Cox. Diane Abbott says her aides try to ensure she's never alone. Gina Miller was told she's 'only a piece of meat..[to] be hunted down and killed', and has said it's not safe for her to go out. Andrew Rawnsley's piece in today's Observer claims that senior Tories fear 'public disorder within 2 years'. That bears out my sense that MPs of all parties are genuinely afraid of unrest.

However, despite the fact I think there's a genuine risk, despite the fact I believe MPs genuinely fear it, I think the risk is exaggerated, and I do not think they should be running scared the way they are. Ultimately, riots can be controlled. Fear should never dictate policy.

I'm sure Misti doesn't visit the kind of insalubrious places on the net that I do, but a consistent refrain by large numbers of people online is that if they don't get what they want they will take to the streets.

Based on what I've seen on social media, a lot of these people are not even in the UK. And it's a fair bet that some of them are being paid to agitate - doubt that paid agitators will think that getting arrested is part of their job description.

No doubt there are passionate brexiters who fit the mob profile - the Britain First/ ex EDL or NF memberships. These people are noisy but not numerous. Individual migrants have every reason to fear these people, but they are not going to trouble public order more generally, because there are not enough of them and many will be known by the police already.

But most of those with a serious ideological commitment to brexit are not really in the rioting demographic at all. This is why Farage and his party have done relatively well at the ballot box, considering how generally crap their candidates are, but have struggled to organise demos. It's a lot easier to get Mr and Mrs Sixty-something from Sleaford to cast a postal vote than it is to get them on a coach to London for a hard day's protesting.

Andrew Rawnsley's piece in today's Observer claims that senior Tories fear 'public disorder within 2 years'. That bears out my sense that MPs of all parties are genuinely afraid of unrest.

Rawnsley's piece is about the risk that more austerity will provoke public disorder. He's not talking about people rising up in response to a failure to brexit. I don't disagree that this is a risk, especially if there is a chaotic Brexit on top of austerity resulting in a collapse in living standards - but if history tells us anything, it's that the rioting demographic won't be brexit supporters - it will be young people in inner cities (ie people living in heavily remain-supporting areas).

It's a lot easier to get Mr and Mrs Sixty-something from Sleaford to cast a postal vote than it is to get them on a coach to London for a hard day's protesting.

But by the same token some of us Mr and Mrs Sixty somethings are veterans of protests and are quite looking forward to a day of protest being like old time's sake.

I'm not quite in that age bracket but I take your point ;) Nevertheless, neither of us is in the kipper demographic.

I'm going to quote from a comment on that Rawnsley piece - which barely mentioned brexit at all, so I'm a bit surprised at it turning up in support of the idea that disappointed brexiters are going to take to the streets:

... it is difficult to fault Rawnsley's reasoning. And he hardly mentions the elephant in the room - Brexit - which, in all likelihood, will make everything much worse (if for no other reason than that the process will consume an enormous amount of resources).

Successive postwar governments have sold off the UK's assets and failed to invest in the country's future (Blair, to give the man his due, at least made some efforts to reverse this trend). For decades the rich have stolen from the poor and the old have stolen from the young. Brexit feels like the final chapter in this grim saga of selfishness and short-sightedness.

"I'm sure Misti doesn't visit the kind of insalubrious places on the net that I do, but a consistent refrain by large numbers of people online is that if they don't get what they want they will take to the streets."

Maybe, but realistically how many are going to trek down here from St Petersburg...

Oh no these are definitely UK based. There may be a few on the Costa. But some, I'm not sure have ever even left the country. And paid agitator types stick out a mile.

I don't think this is about ideological commitment to Brexit at all. Brexit is simply an excuse. Just as Farage is a red herring - his fanbase is gin and jag belt OAP bigots. It's about social, economic & political tensions that have been rising for 30 years. Intensified by austerity. Fuelled by an inflammatory gutter press, who have focused anger on the EU when it's not about the EU at all.

Many who believe they will be better off post Brexit will find themselves worse off with a hard Brexit/no deal, and will be even more furious.

Yes, the question is where that fury is going to be directed.

Rawnsley's piece is about the risk that more austerity will provoke public disorder. He's not talking about people rising up in response to a failure to brexit.

It's all part of the same thing. Austerity has substantially contributed to Brexit because people blame the EU for what have actually been UK government policies. The impact of that has led to people threatening to riot if Brexit isn't fulfilled because they think things are going to improve. They're not, they're about to get worse. Clearly some Tory MPs are aware of this, despite May's unicorns, and are concerned that if people are this pissed off now what the consequences will be when economic downturn hits.

These people are really not very numerous. For example, I use Twitter as a newsfeed, and got fed up with interesting threads being disrupted by trump and brexit idiots and trolls. So I started muting and blocking. I have no more than a couple of hundred accounts muted/blocked, and most of those are MAGA clowns. Yet I can now read brexit threads that are mostly free of trolls and ignoramuses.

My working hypothesis is that on-line brexiters who POST IN ALL CAPS and use insults like "remoaner" (I always block these without further ado) are very noisy and prolific, because they are retired or un(der)employed and have no social life, but there are not huge numbers of them.

It's all part of the same thing.

I am prepared to bet that it won't be disappointed leave voters who take to the streets.

Past outbreaks of rioting in the UK may have had some of the same roots as a portion of the brexit vote - a sense of frustration with the status quo, a sense that your group is being disadvantaged by a more privileged "other".

But actually, the idea that brexit (and Trump) are primarily about disadvantage is mostly bollocks. Tory voters largely supported brexit, while labour voters mostly voted to remain. Older voters supported brexit, younger ones voted remain. The last decade (arguably the last four decades, since Thatcher) has seen a massive transfer of wealth away from the young into the hands of the old, away from labour-voting council house occupants and union members and towards tory voting owner-occupiers and business owners. Brexit was never primarily about disadvantage, but about prejudice.

(Same with the trump vote - the most disadvantaged group in the US ie black women were the least likely to vote for him, while white men voted for him regardless of age or education.)

Mr and Mrs Sixty somethings are veterans of protests and are quite looking forward to a day of protest being like old time's sake
Just visiting but that made me smile Peregrina. On the women's march in London it was funny to see the surprised expressions of teen girls watching their mums and grandmas getting back to protest work! .

These people are really not very numerous

That's precisely what people said about Leave. And in the same mildly patronising head-patting tone. I said the same myself and in the same tone.

I was fully convinced before the referendum that the Leavers I encountered weren't representative, weren't numerous enough to win, and that the polls were as inaccurate as the Indyref polls.

I listen more carefully now, and note what people are saying across the board.

I don't bother with Twitter though. It does my head in.

Brexit was never primarily about disadvantage, but about prejudice

It's about both. And disadvantage has fuelled prejudice.

Brexit and Trump achieved the same feat of making bedfellows of two disparate groups: the prejudiced well off & elite who think they will gain from it, and the disadvantaged who have nothing to lose. (Of course this is massively simplified because there are multiple groups with different motivations).

The disadvantaged were persuaded by hard right media and politicians that the cause of their disadvantage was the EU, and that's not difficult given the innate British tendency to xenophobia, and the fact that some people were affected by the arrival of foreigners more highly skilled or willing to work for less. (Although the latter is massively overplayed by the media).

A poster here said the other day that she didn't believe that people really hate the EU any more than the Germans hated the Jews. That's a fair point. Populist movements choose their scapegoats and conspiracies. And then they manufacture prejudice.

10 years ago when the economy was doing ok, there wasn't the same level of virulent, widespread Euro-scepticism.

It's true that more Tories voted to Leave, but there are also large numbers of pissed off Tory Remainers. It's true that more Labour supporters voted to Remain, but not a massive majority and there are many Labour areas that voted Leave. The divide is less about left or right, more about education and culture. Three surveys with large samples have indicated that the Brexit vote is associated with lower education, lower pay, lower employment levels. But that on its own wouldn't have swung it. It needed the shire & business Eurosceptics to make up the numbers.

I was fully convinced before the referendum that the Leavers I encountered weren't representative, weren't numerous enough to win, and that the polls were as inaccurate as the Indyref polls

You may have thought that, but polling consistently showed a very close race. There is (and was) no doubt that very large numbers of people, especially older ones, support brexit. There is vanishingly little evidence that these people are about to run riot if they don't get their way.

Btw, education was a good predictor of voting in the referendum, but income/wealth much less so. Roughly two thirds of Tory voters voted leave; many of these are older, asset-rich people.

Ninon you say your listening more carefully across the board but who and what too? British people have a tendency to xenophobia when? Back in 1800??how does this reconcile itself with Poland Hungary, Slovakia, Romania? Do you we have any groups in UK as extreme as any far right groups still prevalent in Germany?and you have clearly missed all the various religious leaders speaking out about liberal freedom in the UK enabling them to practice religion in peace? Disadvantaged told me too vote by right wing press put out by highly skilled workers? What a Croc of crap.

It would love unto know where these polls get thier data from, no matter one i know has ever been asked.

We had Moseley's Blackshirts in the 1930s.
Or what about the National Front, BNP, British Freedom Party, or the EDL, which says it isn't racist but is violently anti- Muslim?

Not exactly a crock of crap. We even had a poster on MN enthusing about a Norwegian blogger, who spoke for her, (perhaps not realising that he had inspired Anders Breivik).

You may have thought that, but polling consistently showed a very close race

As did the Indyref polls, which put independence in front. I considered it likely that, as in that case, people would poll one way and vote another. Which is quite common. 2015 election polls didn't indicate as convincing a Tory win as occurred. Iirc on the basis of US polls you predicted a Clinton win. Of course I knew Brexit would be close, but I thought intelligence and good sense would scrape it, as did many people. And but for the defection of Johnson & Gove I think it probably would.

There is vanishingly little evidence that these people are about to run riot if they don't get their way

What kind of evidence is there likely to be? How many polls and studies have asked people if they're likely to riot? There's no evidence to indicate it won't happen either.

Data analysis is not the same as spending time talking to people on the ground. You can't predict civil unrest on the basis of stats.

Across the board here, people I've spoken to from the SE, Midlands, NE, NW, I've heard a similar refrain, that if they don't get what they want they will take to the streets. Of course it's a minority, and the vast majority of people who threaten it won't bother. The problem is they can't get what they want because things are going to get worse economically rather than better. The Tory interviewed by Rawnsley is aware of it, I'm aware of it, I think many people are.

At the same time, as I have said from the start, while I think the risk is real, it's exaggerated.

Btw, education was a good predictor of voting in the referendum, but income/wealth much less so. Roughly two thirds of Tory voters voted leave; many of these are older, asset-rich people

Which is pretty much what I said above in terms of education, and as regards income I noted the combination of the worse off and the well off. Although of course there are many grades in between.

The Indyref polls consistently showed that remaining part of the UK would win table here .

The indyref polling consistently a very close race was my point. But it's true that I recalled incorrectly more polls towards the end showing indyref ahead. However, the rest of the point stands.

Ninon you say your listening more carefully across the board but who and what too? British people have a tendency to xenophobia hmm when? Back in 1800??how does this reconcile itself with Poland Hungary, Slovakia, Romania?

Not so much to Brexiteers on here tbf as I have overkill from elsewhere. Here is one place I can come to read sensible Remain discussions.

I think it goes back to the reformation actually. From Henry VIII onwards there was strong anti-popish propaganda. For a long time there was a legitimate fear of being invaded by catholic absolutist monarchs from Europe, a fear of RCs or RC sympathisers on the throne, until after two bad experiences with monarchs named Charles, the Act of Settlement which determined a RC could never inherit the throne. To anyone who's studied early modern history the anti-Europe line is very familiar. I think we've just swapped fear of Rome for fear of Brussels. And of course we're an island who don't mix as much with foreign speaking neighbours as continental Europeans.

Do you we have any groups in UK as extreme as any far right groups still prevalent in Germany?and you have clearly missed all the various religious leaders speaking out about liberal freedom in the UK enabling them to practice religion in peace? Disadvantaged told me too vote by right wing press confused put out by highly skilled workers? What a Croc of crap.

Not so much any more partly due to the rise of UKIP.

I've encountered many different reasons for voting Leave. Some say they have been undercut by Europeans who will work for less. Some say it's hard to get a job in certain areas because skilled migrants are taking them (car industry for example). Some say there are too many migrants in their areas. Too many migrants in their schools. Too many migrants for the health service, making waiting lists too long. Some say we need to contol our borders. Some say they don't care about immigration at all, but voted for sovereignty. Don't want to be told what to do by the EU. Banana and fireworks laws. I'm sure there are more but it's half 11. I've no idea why you voted Leave I wouldn't care to speculate.

On riots, doubling back a bit, apologies.
Injuries at Orgreave were not caused by anti strike miners, and the violence at the poll tax demonstration was not caused by pro poll tax protestors. Riots will not be initiated by leavers, but.......

Just thought I'd give this a bump!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39167350
Protesters on the #OurNHS march want to draw attention to plans which could see hospital services in nearly two-thirds of England cut back.
Union leaders say many NHS services "are on their knees".
The Department of Health says it is investing an extra £4bn in the NHS.
Organisers claim that "at least 250,000" people are taking part in the march