Westministenders. Boris we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Constitutional Crisis?

[RedToothBrush]

Its twelve days to go until the end of the HoC 2016 calendar and we can already tell that everyone is wishing it was Christmas already. Poor Theresa though, she doesn’t get to play with toys on the last day of term. Instead she has a grilling on the lack of spending on health and social care spending by a commons select committee.

Hopefully the next couple of weeks will calm down a little though as thoughts turn elsewhere.

The A50 case has come to an end. There is no way of telling which way the judges will go but the decision to appeal may yet haunt the government as it will bring the issue of devolution to a head, whether they win or lose. The ruling is due in mid January.

Win and they are going to have to amend the Devolution Acts and potentially impose Brexit on people with certain national identities who voted against it. This is profoundly undemocratic and a betrayal of the principles of Devolution and the expectations of the will of the people.
Lose and they could face a full blown constitutional crisis, with NI or Scotland or both having a veto over Brexit, and the government effectively unable to trigger a50 in line with our constitutional requirement. Which is again, potentially profoundly undemocratic and against the referendum and the expectations of the will of the people.

It was a scenario that predictable and avoidable at several junctions yet the government under Cameron and May ploughed on regardless. It a scenario that we are now locked into, due to deciding to use the courts rather than just go through parliament.

It could also massively restrict the power of the executive under the Royal Prerogative. Ironically this is something that David Davis has campaigned for, for years so I guess he gets a victory however the decision goes.
So the chances of some kind of crisis with regard to our constitutional makeup and the union seem inevitable in the new year.

The government despite a defeat in Richmond Park continues to lean right and characterise anyone with concerns as unpatriotic or not honourable. This is the last resort of the desperate.

They have however, conceded to Labour that they will publish a report on their Brexit plans before a50 is triggered. In return Labour have promised that they will let a50 be triggered by the end of March. Is this a good thing? It remains to be seen. In some ways this is a blinder for Labour.

They are pro-Brexit but anti-lack of plan in theory. This only works if the plan actually has substance. If there is no substance in the plan and its nothing more than empty words then they face having to go back on a commons vote committing them to a deal with the Conservatives. It could therefore be a trap for them. It marginalises the none English Nationalist voices too. Voices that are important and deserve to be heard. Voices that if they are not listened to, will have consequences.

What will the Sleaford and North Hykenham (yep again) by election bring?

A vote of confidence in the government, a new ever growing and rising fear of UKIP or something else. How will this colour the start to the New Year?

I don’t know. 2016 has apparently been the year of gin as people turn to the drink to cope. Everything is now Brexitty and Red, White and Blue.
But whose’s? Britain’s? The USA’s? Russia’s? Or France’s?

We look forward to, or more to the point we fear what 2017 could bring. A feeling we have not felt to this degree in many years. A General Election with a UKIP breakthrough. The end of peace in NI. A repeat of the age old betrayal of Scotland’s by the English. The Welsh damned to irrelevance and marginalisation. Brexit vettoed and the subsequent political fallout. The end of the NHS. A bonfire of rights. A new Italian PM and possibly new Eurozone economic crisis. Fillon or Le Pen and at last a real victory for the far right in Europe. The chance of Merkel’s Last Stand. Putin’s partnership with Assad and a new genocide we are powerless to stop. Erdogan pulling the plug on the EU door and unleashing a new wave of refugees onto European shores. The horror of ISIS both within the West and within the Middle East. Trump’s neo-fascism and rise of a New World Order. There is something in there for everyone to dread.

Which will it be? Probably something we have not yet foreseen such are these times.

Act 2 of Brexit in Westminstenders land is bound to be just as dramatic and of course, we leave 2016 in true soap fashion on a real cliff hanger.

All the more reason to enjoy the holiday period and break whatever your politics.

Oops, Pic 2, 2D maps and VI:

One thing does occur to me though: when people comment again and again in a noticeably biased (and often angry, sniping) way on a forum like MN, eventually they drive other people away from the thread and end up talking amongst themselves, and therefore end up having no influence whatsoever on others. I suppose that is less true of newspaper comments sections.

I've long suspected social media is manipulated in the way described in the article posted by kaija. Have a look at the Change Britain facebook site - there are literally dozens of people posting day-in, day-out, lots of them with fake profiles. They spend hours attacking other posters and, more seriously, 'naming and shaming' people like Anna Soubry, Gina Miller, Ken Clarke, calling them 'traitors' and 'enemies' etc, which, I believe, is a very dangerous game indeed.

I travelled to Vietnam in the early 90s and the Vietnamese seemed fairly incredulous that the war against the Americans was so infamous. As far as they were concerned, they'd had another two wars since then (against Cambodia and China). I agree that, apart from the occasional tourist attraction, there wasn't much evidence of any war having been fought.

And I'd add Chile to the list of countries that have had brutal civil wars/dictators but recreated themselves. It is cheering me up enormously to remember that the tide can turn.

Thanks for the link to the fascinating article, Kaija.

*this piece is interesting: online trolls - just one day and one newspaper - but looks rather familiar."

Very interesting. I'd love to do this - document the posting times of certain posters and do word maps (or whatever they're called) of their posts.

I used to volunteer for Amnesty International and it's strange but good to think, I will have to learn from people I supported on how to get through this one. This link is limited but I was looking for the three Rosas, strangely disappeared from internet, as things strangely do. Women of Chile, Turkey and South Africa have surely advice for us now.
www.janetmarieart.co.uk/untitled-gallery-48317

lala really? We were in Vietnam in the noughties and everywhere we went there were museums dedicated to keeping alive the memory of what they call the American war, and the Vietnamese we met all had tales to tell. We spent quite a bit of time near the DMZ though and that may have meant that the experiences were more traumatic and prolonged. There was plenty of the paraphernalia of war too including what they called "international" trucks assembled and continually cannabalised from all the hardware the Russians and American left behind. My DD went back recently and yes it has changed massively, it is not just a playground for backpackers, but what were sleepy fishing villages are now bling playgrounds for wealthy Russians and Ho Chi Minh city is on its way to being Bangkok in the sense of proliferating skyscrapers. There are also tourist dollars in war, in Cambodia they only recently closed the attraction where for a few dollars you could aim an old rocket launcher at a cow.

Re: Mcdonalds, unless they are really moving more operations to be UK, and not just moving their 'tax base' the only way it will funnel more tax into the UK is if they pay less tax in countries where, according to the spirit if not letter of the law, they should be paying tax. Realistically, the aim will be to pay as little possible tax anywhere, including the UK.

Long term and short term that will just make international co-operation on tax avoidance more difficult.

Being a 'Tax Haven' might be good business for a country the size of Luxembourg, but head offices only create so many jobs if all the work is being done elsewhere.

Big Choc That is actually satisfying geeky marketing analysis. As I have said before as a marketer I watched in dismay as the Blair administration started to use the tools of consumer marketing to political ends . However I do like that matrix. Thanks.

Political campaigning has now gone beyond anything anyone in marketing could legally, let alone ethically, use. Indeed the latest big thing in marketing, up until the last six months, was the importance of corporate social responsibility and ensuring your brand included sound ethical, social and environmental values. Plenty of research to show that such brands perform better financially as well as being easier to live with. Marketers are as flummoxed as anyone in terms of what comes next? You don't get a brand more shot through with a lack of ethics etc than Trumps, and financially and in business terms he is no advert for his marketing strategy, but now he is the fg POTUS

However, who needs Russians when the BBC are more than willing to promote Farage.

If thingummy gets on to Celebrity Big Brother it will be because of Channel 5, not Putin.

Senator John McCain:
” The cold logic of mass graves confronts us again, and the name Aleppo will echo through history, like Srebrenica and Rwanda, as a testament to our moral failure and everlasting shame.”

In spite of the abysmal government performance, the Official Opposition is sub-abysmal (!) hence it continues like this:

ICM guardian poll, fieldwork 9-11 December
Con 41%(-3), Lab 27%(nc), UKIP 14%(+2), LDEM 9%(+2), GRN 3%(-1).
England only:
Con 44%, Lab 26%, UKIP 16%, LD 10%, Grn 3%

So, May and the 3 Brexiteers not really under pressure to actually plan anything yet ....

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/14/british-airways-strike-pay-heathrow-christmas-ba
That would be Southern Rail, PO, Argos and BA for winterval strikemas ! Who else?

ron - I was only in the southern half of Vietnam (Saigon up to Hue as it was logistically and administratively very difficult to visit more than about five places on one trip at that time) but, yes, the Vietnamese I met seemed extremely phlegmatic about the American War and were surprised that visitors were interested. However, many people were very entrepreneurial and there was a small industry producing knock-off Zippos with fake GI engravings on them and other similar items. I also remember a visit to a government-run site which had tunnels allegedly used by the Viet Cong but, generally, it was all a bit: "That was over almost 20 years ago, move on."

I have very fond memories of Vietnam and haven't been back partly because I imagine - as your daughter and others have confirmed - that it would now be unrecognisable.

In a damning report, "Whitehall's preparation for the UK's exit from the EU", the Institute for Government say that the absence of a clear Brexit plan, together with the policy of secrecy, are hindering Civil Service planning for Brexit negotiations and for Brexit itself.

Policies and implementation plans must be in place before Brexit, in order to avoid a "cliff edge" when the UK leaves.

news.sky.com/story/secrecy-is-damaging-pm-theresa-mays-brexit-preparations-say-whitehall-experts-10695236

I've been wondering for some time if TM is deliberately sabotaging Brexit.
This surely isn't the way to proceed with something that you want to go well

I don't think she is sabotaging Brexit deliberately - she is still pursuing her Home Office agenda of cutting immigration. If she sabotages Brexit, it will be by accident. If she sabotages the well-being of the country, that will be deliberate, because she is so totally hung up on Immigration and is too blinkered to see anything else.

This is a weird - and hysterical - strand of the GE election expenses investigation !

http://www.devonandcornwall-pcc.gov.uk/news-and-blog/devonandcornwall-pcc-news-blog/2016/11/update-on-ipcc-investigation-into-election-law-breach/

Andrew White, chief executive of the Office of the Police and Crime Commissioner, Devon & Cornwell:

"Police and Crime Commissioner Alison Hernandez has informed me that she will attend an interview with West Mercia Police on 22 December to discuss allegations relating to election expenses and potential breaches of electoral law on expenses in the Torbay constituency during the 2015 general election campaign.

In May, I referred these allegations, which occurred when Alison was the election agent for the Conservative candidate Kevin Foster, to the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC)."

Bigchoc, it does sometimes seem like wilful sabotage. Or at least, the Govt allowing the idea to wither while they dither and delay and let regular dreadful predictions leak out, hoping for public opinion to change. I can't believe there's still enthusiasm for leaving when it seems certain we'll be so much worse off.

I've missed an entire thread. Thought the other one was going quiet

A belated thanks to red again

Intelligence officers claiming Putin personally directed Russian hacking of the Democrats & Hilary Clinton:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/15/vladimir-putin-personally-involved-in-us-hack-report-claims

"Putin has reportedly never forgiven Clinton – then secretary of state – for publicly questioning the integrity of parliamentary elections in 2011 in Russia"
Apparently,
"Putin’s goals in the alleged hacking began as revenge against Clinton.
But they transformed into a broader effort to show that the world of US politics was corrupt and, in the words of one official, to “split off key American allies by creating the image that (other countries) couldn’t depend on the US to be a credible global leader anymore”.
Also fears Russia may try to interfere with the French & German elections and may have done so in the UK referendum:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/10/russian-involvement-in-us-vote-raises-fears-for-european-elections

"Putin’s government was widely seen as favouring Brexit, as a way of assisting its long-term strategic aim of weakening and dividing Europe and Nato"

Also, "Trump is not even bothering to read the daily national intelligence briefs prepared for the president, which are traditionally shared with his incoming successor. That omission suggests Trump does not want to know some inconvenient truths about the election"

Or, bigchoc, re: trump

kaija thanks for the article
It confirms what I have been feeling for a long time and maybe it's time that we actually wake up to these possible sure ways of manipulating the public. It's not that different from the propoaganda we saw in the 20s century. Just different tools.

what it is a very interesting point regarding politics being treated as marketing and using all the marketing tools available, but with a less ethical stance. In some ways, it also explains a lot about the attitude of the population towards politicians (no one trust them according to the latest poll) as well as the general disinterest toward politics.
Maybe it's also a big wake up call to actually put some limits as to what politicians can do (both in the tolls they are using, the ethics of their policies/ideas and the issue of propaganda). Stopping some politicians to get on and on about things that we know are untrue (big red bus anyone?) would be a good start.

'It terrifies me': Britons in Europe on how Brexit is going to affect them

www.ibtimes.co.uk/survey-shows-40-us-firms-bases-uk-considering-relocation-amid-brexit-fears-1596401

Seems we're moving away from days of wine and roses ...

This is rather long and dry but has some very interesting points in it, including addressing the issue we have discussed on here about how you redistribute opportunity to include the north. He highlights that the old industries are not going to be reenergised but used the example of Pittsburgh where embracing Science and technology has reversed decline. He sees the seeds of that already in Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds could be mobilised and joined up and that with decent high speed links that economic growth could be shared with towns with more intransigent problems of disadvantage like Hull and Grimsby, and though he doesn't mention them think of Barnsley, Doncaster and Bradford too. The crucial point he makes is that with decent transport links there could be jobs available without people having to move away from their communities.

However as he points out Science and Tech thrive on FOM, both in terms of attracting talent here and giving our talent the chance to move around internationally. The 90page form you have to complete just to get right to remain is already a barrier for non EU talent, idiocy to apply it to EU talent. Plus of course there are those EU Science networks that are so crucial to Science and technology.

He makes the very good point that the rise of nationalism and the frustrations of the "left behind" in response to economic change have happened before. However the answers lie not in the past but in embracing the future...... However I can't see Theresa May and her Conservative colleagues, with the possible exception of Jo Johnson who does seem to get it, leading us with a vision for the future, only back in a lorryload of party politics to an isolationist past.....

m.youtube.com/watch?v=wSVUP3ANA48