The Brexit Arms. Please drink ( & post ) responsibly.

[surferjet]

Bear, how that will work is that the economy will be fucked, tax receipts will plunge but as long as we have control again , that's the main thing.

What will happen?
This...
Apparently........

There's no need for dramatic shite like that semipermanent.

I asked a sensible question to which there should be a sensible answer- sadly it doesn't seem that there is.

'There's no need for dramatic shite like that semipermanent.'

Says you Mrs Doom and Gloom!

I'm not 'doom and gloom', I'm realistic.

Leavers can't, or at least shouldn't, continue to dream of unicorns and rainbows and ignore the reality of actually leaving the EU.

Taking the piss with memes like the above isn't helping either.

That's exactly why we are absolutely nowhere near healing the divide that all this has caused; Leavers are resolutely refusing to acknowledge and deal with the problems.

Remainers are convinced it's because there are hurdles that just can't be overcome without pretty drastic consequences but if Leave are so convinced it'll all be fine, why isn't there more evidence and support for this?

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.cityam.com/226546/european-commission-president-jean-claude-juncker-says-uk-does-not-need-eu-but-eu-needs-uk/amp?client=safari

"...We need Britain. Personally I don't think Britain needs the European Union..."

Ah, perfect. An article from October 2015

There's a new phrase appearing today fog mist around brexit pound however one clear indication is that things are changing is the little stickers to slowly increase prices. I noticed today in Next that they have repriced their goods, the item I bought was up 8.3% from their last price... buy it while you can

"I'm not saying there are not financial stability risks to the UK - and there are economic risks to the UK - but there are greater financial stability risks on the continent in the short term for the transition than there are for the UK,” he said.

The Governor stressed the reliance of European households, governments, corporations and banks on the City"

Mark Carney - U turn on Brexit.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/europe-more-at-risk-from-hard-financial-brexit-than-uk-says-mark-carney-a7521861.html

I find it hard to trust any forcasters - we never know until we know - however - he could still be entrenched in a doom and gloom scenario but he isn't.

I feel the tide is turning I really do

wow did Juncker really say that?

Extraordinary if he did.

careful little you will spark a panic buy there

I'm not 'doom and gloom', I'm realistic

But do you accept that's your version of reality? We all have different versions of reality! You find your realistic according to yourself and the experiences and perimeters of your life.

Philip Hammond in Germany seeking to persuade them that the best way for them to have cake and eat it is to come to an agreement where the UK gets to have cake and eat it too.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/11/phil-hammond-seeks-to-assure-germany-over-smooth-path-to-brexit?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=208048&subid=18573163&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

A bit of a weird comment in the article that the Germans believe the EU to be nearing inflationary levels of low unemployment

Bear - Apologies for late reply - I drafted it but didn't get time to send, I was on a rare night out!

Bear - this is the problem, we hold EU passporting up as being the holy grail in which the country cannot function without and which needs protecting at all/any cost. To my mind we have become impossibly reliant on this to such an extent that, depending on what you read, the country will be going to hell in a hand cart without it - that is not a particularly good position to be in. I don't believe we are going to be fucked, I truly believe that you will not see a mass exodus of movement of finance/banking sectors, partly due to our expertise/set up and partly due to the fact that I think we as a country, even now with this current limbo, are a lot more stable and we will continue to be than any other EU country. For these reasons I think banks will take a long term view and will be reluctant to jump out of the frying pan and into the fire (and which is why we haven't seen the movement by banks to the EU which we were told would likely happen in the immediate aftermath of a leave majority) It is in everyone's interest (banks/U.K./EU) to make every effort to make this work outside of passporting (difficult but not impossible).

Nobody knows what will definitely happen one way or the other, its pure guesswork until then but I am in the 'not catastrophic' camp.

The above is just my opinion and no, I am not living in la la land full of unicorns and rainbows, as lovely as that sounds

Love the way some of the remainers in that Guardian article thought that leave would only get a small protest vote. So totally in touch with the man and woman on the street then

I agree wrong, But in many ways I can see myself a decade ago, had I still lived where I did - I would have been oblivious to it all as well. I was insulated where I lived in an affluent village.
So I don't blame them, its their experience but yes - some humility would be good - for their sakes, to help them come to terms with the decision easier.

howabout thanks for article.

The German view is that Britain has not internally settled its negotiating position, but the more controls on free movement the UK seeks, the less access to the single market it will get

I think Germany is very naive in many ways - ( leaders) Merkel has shown this time and time again with her open door to North Africa, ME etc policy, in the way she did it - ie with no proper checks, safety measures and of all things - at this time with the very real threat of attacks by ISIS and in the volume of numbers. Helping genuine refugees and processing them properly is one thing, but what she did....

I would take all she - Merkel says on this - and her advisors with a pinch of salt, they are playing catch up. We need to hold firm on this and I am glad Hammond is reiterating it.

When I refer to banks I mean specific sectors not banks as a whole.

SemiPermanent Wed 11-Jan-17 17:26:13 hilarious

i see My MC news is old news

You find your realistic according to yourself and the experiences and perimeters of your life.

There's the thing elf; I don't base my views solely on the 'experiences and perimeters of my life'

I fully appreciate that some do, the effects immigration being a case in point, but my opinion is based on a much broader spectrum of information than just my own life.

The fact that we are this far down the line and still don't even know if we are remaining in the Singke Market or not is a real problem IMO, there's too much uncertainty. That's not 'doom and gloom' it's a fact.

time, thanks for your reply. in line with my point above about uncertainty, I see no great positive in the fact banks have not yet jumped ship.

Any pre-referendum predictions about leaving were based on A50 being invoked on 24th June. That didn't happen and, as we don't even know if we'll be in or out of the Singke Market, I wouldnt expect banks to take any drastic action yet but you can be sure they have contingency plans.

My biggest issue has always been, and continues to be, the complete lack of clarity over what leaving the EU actually entails.

If it had been laid out properly before the referendum, who knows, I might even have voted to leave too.

Nearly 7 months have passed and we're no closer to seeing how it might work and reality is that because no one has any answers- they simply haven't got a fucking clue what's going to happen.

Given that it's a complete wing and a prayer, will cost a fortune to administer and there's no tangible benefits on the horizon; I still don't understand what we are hoping to achieve by leaving.

Yes but realistically I understand there is bound to be - un certainty. In this situation I struggle to see how anyone could have had a cast iron plan, I never expected one.

I see no great positive in the fact banks have not yet jumped ship Klaxon, Bear cant see a positive, blow me down with a feather

There's a whole world of difference between a 'cast iron' plan and no plan whatsoever.

stop using fucking Santa smileys

But a plan - is being formulated now. The EU has goals - we do - and there will be fluid, changeable negotiations until we meet somewhere.

That is negotiation.

I have a friend who needs to have everything in her life mapped out - she is only 32 and has two dc - good job but she is very confident of everything that will happen to her - if she showed me her retirement home brochure one day soon I wouldn't be surprised.

I however am used to big shocks in life - I do plan - have ideas for this year etc have loose plans but I am very much more casual in regard to these things.
I can't personally see the angst over the so called lack of a plan. I just couldn't see how anyone was supposed to produce one?
In fact I find it exciting that we have everything to play for, everything is up in the air.

I get that you can't map it all out but the big questions should have been answered by now.

You can't just 'wing' the future of and entire country. Well actually it's seems you can because that's exactly what's happening.

I realise I'm irrationally disturbed by your Santa smileys but why would you use them still? I bet you've still got your tree up too