The Brexit Arms. Please drink ( & post ) responsibly.

[surferjet]

Thanks for posting the full report Informal. Also interesting to see how different journalists are interpreting its findings. I think it is worth quoting the main conclusion para because it is slightly different to how Business Insider reads it imo

"One of our two scenarios examines the Treasury’s assumptions even though we feel that these have little basis in reality. More probable but still pessimistic is our baseline Brexit scenario. This scenario is arbitrary but does build in things we already know including the depreciation of sterling and the government’s expenditure plans. In this baseline scenario the loss of GDP peaks at less than 2%
in the next decade, after leaving the EU, before beginning to recover. Postponed investment, loss of EU trade and lower migration all play a role, but an accommodating monetary policy and a depreciated currency help to manage the shock, as they should. In per capita terms there is never any loss and in the longer term a substantial gain as lower cumulative migration exerts an influence. Even
under these somewhat pessimistic assumptions about (temporary) uncertainty and trade losses, the path of GDP is projected to be only a little lower than it might have been in the absence of a Leave vote. Inflation is higher but unemployment lower as migration is restrained.

The economic outlook is grey rather than black, but this would, in our view, have been the case with or without Brexit. The deeper reality is the continuation of slow growth in output and productivity that have marked the UK and other western economies since the banking crisis. Slow growth of bank credit in a context of already high debt levels, and exacerbated by public sector austerity prevent aggregate demand growing at much more than a snail’s pace."

There are also observations on the negative impacts of EU migration on the lower ends of the labour market and housing shortages throughout the analysis.

The economic outlook is grey rather than black, but this would, in our view, have been the case with or without Brexit

This has always been understanding well before Brexit that globally we are facing tougher times. One of the Bexit arguments was to get out of the EU so we can face these tougher times, on our own putting UK first, moving quickly, not lumbered down by EU

'We are all on the same side now, and those who want to winge and be negative remind me of the people always left behind in those disaster movies....the building is burning, some one takes charge and says " we need to get out of here, I am not going to sit here and wait to die, lets move" then the people who don't want to go get all nasty about them leaving."'

Very good way of putting it!

howabout I think the paper highlights how difficult it is to make any predictions, especially given that we still don't know what Brexit actually means:

Put simply, leaving the EU is a unique event; no country has ever done this. The best we can do is to construct a series of scenarios based on assumptions about future trading arrangements, migration controls and about the short-term uncertainties which could affect business investment in the run-up to the likely leaving date of 2019.

Agreed Informal and more generally the limited usefulness of econometric modelling beyond predicting the effect of incremental changes within a steady state.

An interesting, if admittedly one sided take on EU farm subsidies below

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04ngttg?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_daily_politics_and_sunday_politics&ns_source=facebook&ns_linkname=news_central

'We are all on the same side now, and those who want to winge and be negative remind me of the people always left behind in those disaster movies....the building is burning, some one takes charge and says " we need to get out of here, I am not going to sit here and wait to die, lets move" then the people who don't want to go get all nasty about them leaving."'

The problem being it's Leavers who set fire to the building in the first place, thus causing the disaster

Any update on all those positives to come elf?

We are all on the same side now

No we really aren't, this country is hugely divided because David Cameron's gamble did not pay off.

This is not North Korea we do not have to "tow the party line" and all think/feel the same things. As leavers keep saying this is a democracy, plenty of people intend to hold the government to account over Brexit. Its time for those who talked up Brexit - Gove, Johnson et al to now deliver. 17 million people voted to leave the EU but many want different things from Brexit. Let us see if they can present a united front.

No EU army, the ability to trade globally on a fair footing not be hamstrung by the EU. The ability for industries to develop without the skewing of EU subsidies. Closer links with the common wealth. There are many actual and potential benefits to leaving the EU. Really Bear you can keep haranguing @ElfontheShelfIsWATCHINGYOUTOO but these points and many more have all been posted before your unwillingness to see any view but your own blinkered rage induced tunnel is very wearing. Are you really going to pretend no one is answering you or has ever answered you when we've spent six months doing so.

It's all part of the master plan Sheldon.
To grind us down until we lose the will to breathe, let alone post.

infite for someone who regularly accuses me of bullying, your tone is more than a little ironic.

The EU army was never going to happen and everything else you've listed is idealogical waffle.

Yes there many be 'potential' benefits but, given there's still no plan, it's impossible to see whether they'll outweigh the consequences but it has become abundantly clear that the vast majority of Leavers simple don't want to consider those consequences.

TM's interview on Sunday should be enlightening though. If it's more Brexit means Brexit bullshit they'll be a lot of eyebrows raised.

Aha yes I forgot Leavers must not be allowed to speak lest their evil racist stupid old ways corrupt our liberal left wing pro EU thinking we shall not be swayed not by facts not by predictions any verily not by FTSE stability nor unemployment falling not by the utter failure of Project Fear to materialise.

There'll

Ah pedantry Bear is there is no end to your talents and wisdom?

Eh, I was correcting my own post...

No one said you were racist infinite, strawman arguing there, and a typical leaver retort when your argument has been critiqued.

So here let me further elucidate with reference to specifics.

"No EU army"

The EU army was never going to happen and any suggestion of it happening could have been vetoed by the UK as we have a veto to exercise on defense. Sorry, its just a made up thing to scare people.

"the ability to trade globally on a fair footing not be hamstrung by the EU."

Yes but you have to agree with other parties what is part of a trade deal, the deals struck through the EU may be far better than ones we can strike on our own ( see Switzerland and China) because of the size of the EU market. I notice a free trade deal with South Korea is much vaunted by the leave thinkers, we already have an extremely good deal there through the EU, it isn't new.

"The ability for industries to develop without the skewing of EU subsidies."

Any protectionist measures for new industries will have to be agreed by the WTO with our new agreement with them or with other countries that we strike deals with, including the EU. So this isn't as likely as you are making out.

"Closer links with the common wealth."

The Commonwealth countries haven't been sitting around waiting for us, they have their own trade deals and own trading blocs that they are part of. Citing this is backwards imperialist rubbish, look at May in India, it wasn't exactly successful was it? India is now a bigger economy than ours, and its firms own several of our major industrial producers. Trade with former commonwealth countries is a fraction in comparison with the majority that comes from the EU.

"There are many actual and potential benefits to leaving the EU."

There are many risks too, even the Cambridge report that you are see gleefully quoting thinks that we will have an interim agreement with the EU before agreeing some sort of free trade deal, in order to get its predictions. This is not the Brexit we are heading for at the moment.

The burning building analogy is very poor, and inaccurate.

DARTH - your aggressive posting style really irritates me!

I can't believe you are targeting this thread now which is supposed to be easy going in a pub.

Very disappointed to see TRUMP 8 pulled. You were all over CLAIG like a rash.

My aggressive posting style? Umm could you take note of how you and others post here?

The aforementioned poster also couldn't deal with the rational, and reasoned critique of their posts, which is maybe why the thread was pulled?

DARTH - you have been in full throttle since mid Decemeber - what's the matter with you!

You posted around 300 posts on that day - what does that say about you. I enjoy CLAIGS posts as do many other posters. Was your intention to get the thread pulled?

Um you're criticising me for the number of posts made? That certain poster has been posting around that many per day, for around 6 months!

My intention was to take apart the "people's revolution" arguments that Claig posted continually, and to point out the continual hypocrisy of the political correctness and shouting down trope.

My intention in no way was to get it pulled, but to give a bit of challenge to an utterly fallacious set of arguments posted by someone who handed out abuse and mocked others.

For anyone missing Claig's posts then I'm sure I can have a good go at replicating them using a limited number of words (Oxbridge, spin, PPE, crying, Blair, Stump for Trump, people, revolution, elites etc) and a random phrase generator?

Inkanta - Darth was in full throttle well before mid December .

Not really time4, joined when I was signed off work, wouldn't have the time otherwise.

I've lurked the AIBU boards for years though from this thread on another site:

notthetalk.com/discussion/list/37113?start=0

The EU army was never going to happen and any suggestion of it happening could have been vetoed by the UK as we have a veto to exercise on defense. Sorry, its just a made up thing to scare people.

It was not 'never going to happen' - it already is.
Maybe not an officially signed off 'EU Army', which is the dream of some within the EU - but it's already being brought in by stealth.

One thing I liked & admired a lot about Claig was how she got the most horrific abuse at times, yet never lashed out back - she didn't attack or slag off individual posters at all.

Who was Claig 'abusing & mocking' Darth?
Was it posters or public figures?

Claig was an incomparable poster. I miss her posts but am hopeful that she'll be back. From a personal perspective, her posts were of a genuine value and were actually thought-provoking rather than merely reflective of the echo chamber that we hear all too often on a daily basis.