The Brexit Arms. Please drink ( & post ) responsibly.

[surferjet]

Pleased about today's resignation we need a negotiating team with a desire to you know actually leave the EU not one that is gleefully rubbing hands at the thought of ten years more bunce

I agree - shame we cant route out all of them who want to delay and drag the process out rather than crack on with it and get best deal.

Sigh, but that is what the ambassador was saying, that it is much more complex than "getting the best deal" and that getting the best deal might take a long time because it very complicated.

If there's one thing these threads have taught me it's that many Leavers definition of 'the best deal' comprises only of no longer being part of the EU.

Nothing else seems to matter and anything we do agree is seen as a bonus.

They're willing to compromise on everything just for the badge of leaving the EU.

It scares the shit out of me but you can't argue against that train of thought because most Leavers don't seem at all bothered by the consequences.

Yes of course its complicated what an odd thing to say - we are not going to get the best deal if our team working on it, it more focused on slowing the process down, however. The best team is the team who wants and accepts Brexit and all the positives it offers.

Bear you could say exactly the same for staying in the EU, any consequence is worth the badge of staying.

elf the 'consequences' of staying in the EU were much more predictable than the current abyss we are looking into.

At the risk of going back over very old ground, can you give us a few of 'all the positives it has to offer'

The best team is the team who wants and accepts Brexit and all the positives it offers.

Still waiting to hear the positives. Also slight oversight that 27 EU nations will have a say in Brexit.

Well the Cambridge report says that immigration controls will lower immigration to 150,000 a year by the mid 2020s.

This will allow workers to negotiate higher wages, but nearly all gains will be offset by inflation.

Economic growth could take fall by as little as 3% of GDP or by 5 % of GDP in the worst case scenario, however the 3% fall is not far from what they think it would have fallen had we stay in the EU.

Elf, our "team" weren't concentrating on slowing down the process, his problem is that he wasn't a yes man, remember they said he wasn't optimistic enough about the opportunities? That means that he kept outlining how difficult it will be and the brexit lot don't want to hear that.

Oh no Bear not to many Leavers, no no no!

The big glaring positive is to extricate ourselves from the Federalising nature of the EU. As Gisella Stuart said - after working on an EU team for Blair for two years - an EU Monolith does not work and more than that - not only does it not work now history has shown us it does not work.
History has shown us many times it will not and does not work.

Still waiting to hear the positives

Really? Where are you looking for answers? Its everywhere over internet, all forms of media, plenty of info on both sides....

The big glaring positive is to extricate ourselves from the Federalising nature of the EU.

That's exactly my point- Leavers only seem bothered about leaving, not actually thinking about how we'll fare on our own.

Really? Where are you looking for answers? Its everywhere over internet, all forms of media, plenty of info on both sides....

most of the wild claims made by the leave side have been well and truly debunked. That and the governments inept handling of the post referendum landscape is the reason more people are becoming sceptical about Brexit being beneficial for the UK.

Really? Where are you looking for answers? Its everywhere over internet, all forms of media, plenty of info on both sides....

I've yet to read a single tangible positive, if there are so many, could you share a few.

History has shown us many times it will not and does not work.

Please enlighten us with examples.

The Federal Europe claim has been debunked many times, and citing Gisella Stuart is an appeal to authority. There are many more who say it won't happen.

And an agreement, enforceable under international law that the British are exempt from ever closer union even if that very unlikely thing were to occur.

Gisela Stuart got herself in abit of a muddle immediately after the referendum didn't she?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/16/leave-campaigner-gisela-stuart-accused-of-hypocrisy-over-eu-citizens-rights

elfon that's just meaningless flannel. Try ditching the hyperbole and saying something concrete and fact based for a change.

There were some opinions from that Cambridge report put above.

I'm sure most leavers would be happy for immigration to fall to 150,000 a year, so to them that's good news.

The problem is that none of the things that they said would be solved by controling immigration are actually going to get solved, which is the unfortunate truth that the press reporting the Cambridge report haven't said.

Interesting discussion about an hour into the Today programme this morning on BoE and Treasury Brexit forecasts and the tendency towards confirmation bias when government interacts with "expert" civil servants.

Dr Graham Gudgin from the Centre for Business Research at the University of Cambridge says the Bank of England's post-Brexit economic predictions were based on a "flawed application of a fairly controversial technique".

He made the comments after Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane said it had foreseen a sharper slowdown in the economy than had happened.

Dr Gudgin argues the Bank found information that supported the government's position and they stopped "asking questions" at that point.

More info on Dr Gudgin's (Centre for Business Research) paper:

However, the Centre for Business Research advises that its own conclusions should be taken with a pinch of salt. The report states: "The best we can do is to construct a series of scenarios based on assumptions about future trading arrangements, migration controls and about the short-term uncertainties which could affect business investment in the run-up to the likely leaving date of 2019."

The working paper, for example, assumes that Theresa May prioritises immigration controls and manages to reduce net migration to around 165,000 from 2020. It also assumes an eventual free trade deal with the EU and a transition arrangement while it is negotiated. While these assumptions are likely, they are by no means certain.

The academics also caution that their conclusions do not amount to a rosy economic outlook for Britain. Real wages, for example, are forecast to be only slightly higher in 2025 than they were in 2004 due to the return of inflation and sluggish wage growth.

I added the bolding.

uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-university-of-cambridge-treasury-forecasts-little-basis-in-reality-project-fear-2017-1

www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/centre-for-business-research/downloads/working-papers/wp483revised.pdf

ghost

What muddle? It is possible to want to reduce immigration to manageable - sensible numbers and still want to protect the rights of EU workers who have already arrived. In fact that seems very clear and straight forward and sensible to me, and the article seemed rather desperate?

most of the wild claims made by the leave side have been well and truly debunked

and likewise the remain side

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors

A while back someone said, FOM is a capitalist wet dream – I loved that image! However, if capitalists want certain workers from Europe (for whatever reason) they will get them, surely? Therefore the situation, say in Boston, will continue much as before. Won't it and their wet dreams will continue?

I dont see sides anymore really now we are getting a way down the old Brexit Path.

We are all on the same side now, and those who want to winge and be negative remind me of the people always left behind in those disaster movies....the building is burning, some one takes charge and says " we need to get out of here, I am not going to sit here and wait to die, lets move" then the people who don't want to go get all nasty about them leaving."

DC - "we are all in together " may not have been relevant way back when but its relevant now, we really are all in it together. If you really think the ship is going to go down, people need to get creative on how to stop that within the confines of Brexit.

I don't believe the ship will go down, I don't think we are in a weak position, and I believe when my DC are old enough - we will be in a strong and stable position globally.

Arf Petronius, don't know but wet dreams