The Brexit Arms. Please drink ( & post ) responsibly.

[surferjet]

Here's another one I've whipped up that tells a story. Red line shows actual average gross weekly wage in Boston by year. Yellow line shows 1997 wage adjusted by annual inflation (CPI) over time.

Since 2012 the average wage in Boston has been less than the 1997 wage when adjusted for inflation.

Still can't concentrate enough to make any sense, but LOVING the fact that figures have been plotted into graphs and everything!

I love a bit of maths geekery & you can't beat a good diagram or graph!!

Yes the wage growth has fallen since 2012.

It again though demonstrates the LSE claim that wage growth was effected more by the financial crash than immigration as for the first years after 2004 wage growth is higher, and net migration was high.

Loving the pub thread tonight

Happy New Year Everyone.

those figures can't take into account how many jobs once sat in a higher pay bracket than they now do. ie. are there jobs there that used to have to offer higher wages to attract the skills needed and now don't and have slipped into the lowest paid bracket of jobs.

i can see lowest paid jobs have gone up or done in pay but can i see if jobs have moved from middle paying to lowest paying etc?

hope that makes sense.

what i see locally is that jobs that used to attract pay premiums and perks for certain skills and/or unsocial hours now just pay minimum wage. on stats it may look like lowest paid jobs are being paid x % more or less than ten years ago but it wouldn't reveal that in that 'lowest paid jobs' envelope are jobs that once fell into a higher paying bracket.

Honey, the BOE study shows that immigration has little effect because of the size of the increases and the type of skilled work that it does. If anything it has a small boost to wages of the middle and the top earners.

The only place it really impacts is the very lowest percentile of earners.

"what i see locally is that jobs that used to attract pay premiums and perks for certain skills and/or unsocial hours now just pay minimum "
wage"

But what you see locally might not be the effect of immigration, it might be the impacts of other things.

The impact is shown by the data, and we used data from Boston to show it. Boston was always lowered paid than other areas in the Midlands and the rest of the UK and the gap has stayed about the same.

Pleased about today's resignation we need a negotiating team with a desire to you know actually leave the EU not one that is gleefully rubbing hands at the thought of ten years more bunce.

We need a negotiating team who are realistic about the process, not a buch of yes men who will say anything.

Its disappointing, if we do need to work together on it, then we need the experts of which this was one.

He was leaving in October anyway so wouldn't have been part of the whole process. He should have been sacked for the ten year prognosis that not realism it's rolling over baring your throats and saying you're in charge pant pant

10 years to sort it all out is what people in the civil service are saying too. Its not good to dismiss expertise just because it disagrees with what you hope.

Remember the people baying for his blood are the ones who are backing the very flawed change britain economics.

May: Brexit means Brexit. Red, white and blue Brexit.

Ambassador: Brexit will take time and be a tad complex.

I know who I'd prefer at the negotiating table.

Farage that's who'd I'd prefer not a proven failure who got zero concessions last time but someone whose focus is on us leaving. Ten years my arse.

Farage is a proven failure, he'd rather be a MP but has failed to get elected 7 times.

There is a difference between being a yes man and outlining the dificulties.

I'd love to know where your expertise comes from that you can dismiss a large body of advice from many different expert sources, including this one.

Farage has failed to get elected to Westminster. He is on LBC saying he would prefer a businessman to replace the ambassador. Y'know someone speaking for ordinary folk. maybe Phil green? Mike Ashley?

Whats the obsession with "businessmen",most businessmen didn't back brexit.

"I have serious doubts that EU free movement is tenable or even desirable. First, the freedom is not a universal right, but selective. It does not apply to Indians, Jamaicans, Americans or Australians. They face complex and often harsh visa restrictions. One uncomfortable feature of the referendum was the large Brexit vote among British Asians, many of whom resented the contrast between the restrictions they face and the welcome mat laid out for Poles and Romanians ...

The economics are ambiguous. Seen globally, more migration is undeniably a positive. People moving from high unemployment, low productivity countries to areas of labour scarcity and higher productivity produce economic gains. But the benefits accrue mainly to migrants themselves (and business owners) ...

There is no great argument of liberal principle for free EU movement; the economics is debatable; and the politics is conclusively hostile ...

I do not see much upside in Brexit, but one is the opportunity for a more rational immigration policy".

Coming back to the earlier discussion on FoM Vince Cable writing in the New Statesman.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/01/why-its-time-end-eu-free-movement

And just for fun Brexit Express interpreting Andy Haldane versus Remaining Independent

www.express.co.uk/finance/city/750676/Andy-Haldane-Bank-of-England-economist-Brexit-forecast-failings

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/andy-haldane-bank-of-england-has-not-changed-view-on-negative-impact-of-brexit-a7511351.html

Well May made clear that from now on no one is getting a welcome mat. She's understood 'people's concerns' about immigration and is closing the doors.
He's probably right that there's nothing great in particular about EU immigration in itself (other than the reciprocal opportunity to emigrate) - apart from the very important fact that it's tied with the single market.
Anyway British people have decided, but one thing is for sure, British Asians are not looking likely to get an easier life.

Again Vince Cable is incorrect about the benefits of immigration.

One of the reasons that there was a large vote for leave amongst British Asians is because there were lots of things said about being able to increase the number of immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, there has already been dissatisfaction with the fact that this won't be occuring.

Also, as is oft pointed out in these cases. Immigration has massive net benefits to the economy and therefore the populace. Already trained workers arriving, paying taxes, mostly leaving without having large impact on infrastructure.

Often what goes unnoted is the fact that it comes with the other four freedoms too. The UK has done massively well from freedom of movement of capital and goods etc.

Further overlooked is the fact that migration of UK citizens to other countries is also difficult, and that UK citizens have reciporocal rights in the EU.

Cable, as many do, is pandering here to the anti migration vote, whilst ignoring many of the other issues.

Report from Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge on the Macro-economic Impact of Brexit. Interesting reading.

www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/centre-for-business-research/downloads/working-papers/wp483.pdf

Also, as is oft pointed out in these cases. Immigration has massive net benefits to the economy and therefore the populace. Already trained workers arriving, paying taxes, mostly leaving without having large impact on infrastructure

Often pointed out, and often disagreed with.

The problem with disagreeing with it is that you have to be able to prove it.

I've read that report wrong, its claims aren't as good as are being made out.

For example the fall in immigration leads to a higher ability to neogtiate wages, yes, but almost all of the gains of this will be taken away by inflation which means that real wages will remain flat until 2025.

Its severe brexit prediction is 5% fall in GDP, the treasury's was 7%.

Also, I do love how you all link to studies when it suits, but dismiss them all when it doesn't.

I'll admit that there are some positives in that, but that its based on us gaining some sort of free trade deal with the EU, which we don't know will happen.

I give up.

Why because I put some of the negatives in the report out there?

Yes there are positives too, the fall in net migration will please some, the fact that they think no reccession will occur.

But its hardly an economic bed of roses as pointed out:

"The deeper reality is the continuation of slow growth in output and productivity that have marked the UK and other western economies since the banking crisis. Slow growth of bank credit in a context of already high debt levels, and exacerbated by public sector austerity prevent aggregate demand growing at much more than a snail’s pace."

So although Brexit will bring lower net migration, wages won't grow greatly, public sector austerity will continue.

I don't know why you're giving up, you've challenged every academic study that I've quoted here, I'm pointing out things read in the study.