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Brexit

The Brexit Arms. Please drink ( & post ) responsibly.

999 replies

surferjet · 08/12/2016 14:11

Wine
The Brexit Arms. Please drink ( & post ) responsibly.
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19
twofingerstoGideon · 13/12/2016 19:56

Two I think you will find we had all those delights you mentioned under Blairs Long endless Tenure. In fact Labour said back then it was ashamed of the large and increasingly growing gap between poor and rich under its leadership. They admitted they had failed, in particular child poverty.
We did have them. Blair also started an illegal war and introduced tuition fees. What's your point? That was also 'our government' was it not?

twofingerstoGideon · 13/12/2016 19:58

Oh... I get it. You inferred that anyone who isn't a rabid supported of Brexit is a Tony Blair fan/Labour supporter. Well, if that's what you're implying, let me assure you that you're wrong.

ElfontheShelfIsWATCHINGYOUTOO · 13/12/2016 20:00

And our government already controls its own affairs. After all, we have them to thank for austerity, wealth inequality, unsustainable property market, etc

Austerity is a Tory key word - so I thought you were talking about our current government. But your lumping them all together - fair enough.

I don't like to view this either through political lenses. Smile

harvestmoon32 · 13/12/2016 20:01

Bear - "Project Fear is becoming a reality"...

Was this the Project Fear you had in mind?
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/osborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu

Here's a Leaver's perspective - it's not all rose tinted:
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/20/brexit-eu-referendum-economy-project-fear

inflation is at 1.2% - Oil prices in January were $28pb and are now $54pb - inflation was going up anyway....and a few months ago everyone was lamenting low inflation/deflation. Here's an article from the Independent claiming the economy needs a dose of inflation! It might help us reduce the national debt.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/the-dangers-of-deflation-9803020.html

Here are the figures for import/export for October - I realise this is not a trend! But encouraging to see our exports growing, no??

www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx

Total trade exports for October 2016 were £26.8 billion. This was an increase of £1.4 billion (5.4 per cent) compared with last month and an increase of £2.0 billion (8.2 per cent) compared with October 2015.

Total trade imports for October 2016 were £39.6 billion. This was a decrease of £5.9 billion (13 per cent) compared with last month, but an increase of £2.2 billion (5.8 per cent) compared with October 2015.

As for what the "mythical long term gain" will be...the honest answer is who knows, who knows what the future holds for anything? but right now Parliament are acting like a bunch of schoolchildren. It seems many MPs from all parties want to tie this up into such a knot that we end up grinding to a halt as a country. Uncertainty will end up being more damaging if it goes on and on than actually Brexiting. Parliamentary input I agree with, but the spectrum of wishes from remain in to hard brexit and everything inbetween...who'd want to be the one trying to reconcile this? Bet TM is wishing she hadn't stood as PM now. FWIW I agree with Philip Hammond - I think he's a pretty safe pair of hands but the outcome will depend on the EU27 stance,

And who know what the EU will look like this time next year - will youth unemployment still be 30-40% in S Europe (there's a reason these kids all want to come here - it's called work), what will happen in the elections. Had we stayed in, would the EU have reformed in any way?

I tend not to spend too much time thinking about issues around Brexit as I find it doesn't get me anywhere and I'm much happier just getting on with my life...I'll go and make a gin!

ElfontheShelfIsWATCHINGYOUTOO · 13/12/2016 20:02

bear I wouldn't set any store by such surveys. polls and surveys can be very wrong as we have recently found out. Grin It all sounds desperate and clutching at straws too.

I think the reality is - millions are thrilled the vote went for Brexit and we just want to get out of the mess that is the EU.

ElfontheShelfIsWATCHINGYOUTOO · 13/12/2016 20:06

Ah there you see Bear ^^ a few little positives to try and see in harvest post?

Bearbehind · 13/12/2016 20:11

I think the reality is - millions are thrilled the vote went for Brexit and we just want to get out of the mess that is the EU

I'd buy that if anyone could articulate why this so called mess that is the EU is worse than the mess we face by leaving.

No one has even come close so far.

Corcory · 13/12/2016 20:16

Oh but Brexit hasn't happened yet has it I seem to remember loads of remainers telling us! It has gone up because of the low value of the £.
Why should we have people out in fields picking fruit/veg for very low wages if it can be automated? The other point was that the Scottish producers had said they had looked at their T&Cs to encourage UK people to come and work for them. Production had increased 5% and immigrant workers had gone down 6% but of course that's of no interest but a small increase in inflation means 'project fear was justified!
I would suspect that production will continue to go up as the need for home grown produce becomes more necessary and viable and automation increases. Thus more jobs Brits 'will want to do'.

Bearbehind · 13/12/2016 20:17

harvest I actually agree with the second half of your post.

elf, I don't see a huge positive in export figures as we are net importers and inflation will adversely affect the inputs into exports too.

Rises in cost of living will affect us all, some will barely notice it, others will really struggle.

I'd just like to have an idea what the man on the street will actually gain from leaving the EU as we are beginning to see what he'll lose.

ElfontheShelfIsWATCHINGYOUTOO · 13/12/2016 20:20

Its a question of perceptions Bear. I look at the EU I see catastrophic chaos, I see leaders who do not give a damn about any little man across the EU, I see blunders, and corruption Fog, obfuscation etc. Hence I want to leave it. I cant see any joined up thinking there and I think and have seen in action across 27 countries it not possible, What more proof does anyone need looking at one aspect - the migrant crisis Shock. No cohesion, no plan, its been a humanitarian disaster in many many ways. So many ways.

It cant cope with un expected pressures on it.

I guess a remainer sees different things to me - see's different positives. But so many things have crossed lines for me I just cant support it to my mind there is literally nothing to support.

harvestmoon32 · 13/12/2016 20:20

I'd buy that if anyone could articulate why this so called mess that is the EU is worse than the mess we face by leaving.

Bear - how do you KNOW we face a mess by leaving? Some in my family thought we faced a mess by staying....do you think the EU is perfect? If not, what reforms would you like to see?

I'm not trying to irritate - I'm just turning around your questions...your insistence that it HAS to be a mess when we leave (which we don't do for several years) when the reality is no-one knows what's going to happen (especially now DT is President elect)

Corcory · 13/12/2016 20:22

My post of 20.16 was for Bear.

ElfontheShelfIsWATCHINGYOUTOO · 13/12/2016 20:22

What does the man on the street gain from the EU? I have seen only negatives, I can't see any positives in it for our country.

I think everything was rushed and not thought through in fact I know it wasn't thought through - that's of course common knowledge now, the famous 15 thousand figure. Hmm

harvestmoon32 · 13/12/2016 20:23

Bear
harvest I actually agree with the second half of your post.

Yay!

What did you think of the first half of the post? Any truth to it?

ElfontheShelfIsWATCHINGYOUTOO · 13/12/2016 20:24

do you think the EU is perfect?

I struggle to see how anyone looking at the Bataclan tragedy - and its messy aftermath and the migrant crisis can trust the EU with a single thing, it totally exposed its chaos and weakness and its priorities - FOM at literally any cost, open borders at any cost.

Bearbehind · 13/12/2016 20:28

elf and harvest, it's all well and good talking about wide reaching aspirations like having control of our borders etc but, as above, what will the man in the street gain from this?

We've seen inflation is rising- that is a fact that will affect everyone.

economic growth predictions for next year are looking grim, we've yet to see if that transpires but there's not much on the horizon to indicate the complete opposite is actually the case.

Unless people are loaded they won't have voted to make themselves poorer so how do you justify the ways in which they'll be 'richer' given they'll be financially 'poorer'

Bearbehind · 13/12/2016 20:30

harvest, I answered about exports in the same posts and the other points were based on us actually leaving- that hasn't happened yet.

Bearbehind · 13/12/2016 20:32

I would suspect that production will continue to go up as the need for home grown produce becomes more necessary

So instead of looking to build trade relationships with the rest of the world, we're now aiming for self sufficiency- excellent.

ElfontheShelfIsWATCHINGYOUTOO · 13/12/2016 20:33

I think the poor man on the street will hopefully have more chance of work and being given a job, rather than to his counter part from the EU, I feel its jobs that require lowers skills that have come under the most pressure from EU workers. I also feel at the bottom of society pressures will eventually ( i hope ) will start to ease because so many poor have come from the EU its those scanty services that have suffered the most, even down to getting cheap food, products, competition at the bottom has hugely increased.

So a meager wage - income has to be used with imagination and people from EU countries that have been very very dirt poor under communist rule are extremely adept in this area. But it increases competition for people who literally have nothing. So I feel such people, already feel their lives cant get worse, and yet - allowing more very poor people to come here wont make it better - in any way - so putting a stop to this migration is the first step, to make things better even if in the short term there is some pain. Many commentators have mentioned this and its something I have witnessed too.

Bearbehind · 13/12/2016 20:38

elf do you have any statistics on how many people actually can't get work (work they'd actually do) because of EU migrants as I fear it's in large an exaggerated urban myth and certainly won't benefit very many people whereas inflation will affect us all.

harvestmoon32 · 13/12/2016 20:59

Bear - I didn't say it was my view about "wide reaching aspirations like having control of our borders". I agree with you that we haven't left yet.

Exports: sorry - found your response. I don't disagree with your point. Phil did double the export financing support in the Autumn statement, (which would have been too early for Oct numbers, so this must have been currency related), so one would hope the government are giving exporting businesses a shot in the arm, just when they need it.

If you read the Indy article on inflation, you'll see that some inflation will help our economy (especially to reduce debt - deflation/zero inflation is not good in the long term) - the BoE target is 2% for a reason.

economic growth predictions for next year are looking grim

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/02/economy-to-grow-faster-than-expected-into-2017-as-uk-sustains-po/

www.cnbc.com/2016/11/03/bank-of-england-holds-interest-rates-at-record-low-of-025-ups-growth-target-for-2017.html

Unless people are loaded they won't have voted to make themselves poorer so how do you justify the ways in which they'll be 'richer' given they'll be financially 'poorer

You say that like it's a certainty - this news article below shows that the outcome during this time of limbo, for many people could be just fine. I doubt many people stopped to think about their incomes in mid 2017 when they voted in June 2016 - look at the backlash to the Project Fear George Osborne punishment budget. He tried to tell them....but given Leave won the ref, maybe they did vote to make themselves poorer/didn't believe that would happen/didn't think about that because other issues were more important? I don't know. I suspect many people are just getting on with their lives and not thinking too hard about what's in store (except us on MN).

'news.sky.com/story/job-optimism-at-three-year-high-despite-brexit-manpower-survey-10693573

TuckersBadLuck · 13/12/2016 21:03

Total trade exports for October 2016 were £26.8 billion. This was an increase of £1.4 billion (5.4 per cent) compared with last month and an increase of £2.0 billion (8.2 per cent) compared with October 2015.

You hinted at the reason for that in the same post. Oil has gone from $40/barrel to $55/barrel in the last year at the same time as the £ has fallen from $1.51 to $1.26. Oil's traded in $.

So the export value of oil has gone from £26/barrel to £43/barrel, that's a 65% increase. We exported $33.2bn of oil in 2015, worth c.£22bn, if we export the same quantity this year it's worth c.£36bn - that's roughly £1.2bn per month 'extra exports' without actually producing anything extra or providing any extra work for anyone.

It's a similar situation for everything else we sell in $/€. Suddenly that £2bn increase isn't looking so good is it? Particularly as the value of imports has risen by more than that, and for exactly the same reasons.

It's fine for some businesses whose input costs aren't increasing as fast as the extra exchange rate bounty they're getting from exporting, but for many their increased input costs are starting to more than swallow up any benefit.

ElfontheShelfIsWATCHINGYOUTOO · 13/12/2016 21:04

Well if you feel that Bear its no wonder you think as you do!
I have read and digested and seen with my own eyes, large quantities of data on this subject yes.

Jack Straw has admitted that opening Britain's borders to Eastern European migrants was a "spectacular mistake

Mr Miliband said the Labour government had underestimated both the numbers of Polish immigrants and the ‘big effect’ it had on living standards for working-class households 2013

Chris Bryant, Labour's immigration spokesman, said it was wrong to ditch controls on migrants in 2004 and claimed far more workers came to Britain "than anybody had anticipated

Mr Blunkett said anti-social behaviour by Roma people in his Sheffield constituency has resulted in “understandable tensions” among the indigenous community, and the conflict must be addressed to avert disorder

"As an unassuming figure at Westminster, John Denham spotted earlier than others the impact of immigration from the eastern and central European states. In February 2006, he wrote a prophetic memo to Tony Blair, chancellor Gordon Brown and home secretary Charles Clarke, warning that the number of immigrants was far higher than the government’s figures suggested. According to the memo, roughly 14,000 eastern European immigrants had arrived in Southampton within the previous 18 months. This was placing immense pressure on maternity services and leading employers to lower wages.

"The response from the Whitehall machine to Denham’s memo was largely indifferent. “I sent a warning message to government about the impact of immigration in Southampton, saying* Whitehall was not picking up quickly enough what was happening on the ground, or what the wider electorate were saying in response,” he recalls. “

I think it will benefit a huge no of people because a huge no of people in the UK are un skilled and have low skills.

"“One of the problems was that people were supposed to register if they were employed but many came as self-employed,” Denham says. “The biggest impacts were in self-employed trades like construction, where you didn’t have to register.” In the memo, Denham stated that the daily rate for a builder in the city had fallen by 50% since 2004. He also noted that hospital accident and emergency services were under strain because migrants tended not to use GPs as a first port of call. It also turned out that the local further education college had to close its doors after 1,000 migrants attempted to sign up for an English-as-a-second-language course on one day. Whitehall, Denham argued, was wholly out of touch with the concerns of his constituents. The government needed a comprehensive assessment to work out how it should deal with the surge in immigration"

And so on and so forth. The same thing of course replicated all over the UK.

Bearbehind · 13/12/2016 21:06

harvest I get your point about people voting Leave because they didn't believe they'd be worse off but now it's actually happening I wonder how they feel now?