Westministenders. Boris worries about the land of his birth and simply wonders, what the hell next!?

[RedToothBrush]

Of all the Westministers intro I’ve done to date, I think this has been the hardest to write.

My first thought is where on earth to start, and then where to stop with how Trump’s victory affects us in the UK. It completely changes international relations. The political fall out is going to be considerable and potentially radioactive in its toxicity.

To hardened Brexiteers, America falling to Trump represents the domino effect in progress. It will embolden them. And the fear is that on 4th December both Italy and Austria could fall next as they respectively, face a referendum and a re-run of the presidential election.

And then there’s France…

All of this is a threat to the EU. It just leaves everyone, including the UK asking what next? And what of our relationship with the US? Who knows? It makes it look around and say, can we rely on the US, and without the US surely we have no choice but to grow closer to the EU. Perhaps there is a role for us in-between but there really are no guarantees and do we want to make that choice?

The suggestion is that May has no love for Trump. And whilst the hard right might harbour fantasies about becoming the 51st State, which seem to be led by Farage himself, this exposes the one red line that could bring the fury of the country down on the government to its extinction. The NHS. Its not for sale. Its not to be subject to a trade deal.

In a curious turn of events, rumours grow that the government will contend at the Supreme Court that a50 CAN be reversed afterall. Davis had personally been responsible for the original line that its not reversible. This was a political decision to tie us into leaving, and show intent and seriousness to Leavers. Yet it was always a crazy one that is not in the national interest.

Going back on this totally changes the game.

It would be a move that will go down well with Remainers and Liberal Leavers but will enrage the hardliners especially if the ECJ is part of this new tact.

It off loads a pile of risk and it is the prudent and sensible approach. It is much needed to protect the best interests of the country overall. Its also that magic ‘Get Out of Jail Free Card’ for that promised Nissan deal.

The change of tact would also help to appease MPs and much opposition to Brexit. And in doing so, also lessens the chances of a HoC rebellion against May and also reduces the chances of an early election, thus is perhaps a more stabilising way forward. It encourages negotiation of a good deal that other parties and rebels will also find agreeable rather than them feeling like they are being held to ransom on.

It would almost certainly delay things and might interfere with May’s precious timetable.

But there’s France… and the Presidential elections are in April/May

Do we really want to trigger article 50, if post Trump, the domino really is likely to fall there too and Le Pen wins the Presidency? There is suddenly a potential ally for major EU reform. Or even its collapse. Now is not the time to do something rash and drastic but to hold our nerve just a little longer.

It makes sense to everyone to hang fire and delay. If only briefly to see what now happens.

There are dangers in doing this though. The prospect of the ECJ being involved in a case which is in essence about our Constitution, is not only embarrassing but could be explosive. It will raise fears of leavers that Brexit will not happen. It will play to the extremes and the agenda of UKIP. It exposes judges to the press and criticism that they are activists and also trying to stop Brexit. Though Gove seems to have changed his tune and is defending them rather more than he was previously...

With tensions running high will Farage get his 100,000 march? Maybe, maybe not. Only time will tell on that one. He is trying to win through intimidation though, and that makes people fear him if we don’t do his bidding and what’s happening over in the States only emboldens him and makes others fear him more. He is divisive and never will be able to serve the national interest, because of it no matter how honest his delusions of being an ambassador to Trump are.

It just adds to the growing sense of helplessness and growing question of whether the proud tradition of British liberalism can even survive? It becomes appears to many this is ultimately the goal of Mr Farage – and not the EU. The EU is just a protector of it.

Well I don’t believe that Farage does have it all his way and has the monopoly on people power, nor a connection to the public that no one else has.

One of the themes developing on twitter, is one about passion, hope and a new sense of purpose. One to defend British values and not become like Trumpland. We have a warning and an example of how it really could be worse and it’s not a pretty sight.

I remember during the referendum one poster unsure of how to vote, asking simply:
“I don't want to spoil my vote. I want to vote, and vote with conviction”.

It was a question I found difficult to answer at the time. To me it highlighted how much people did want something to believe in and to not having that. We must start to build on that, and provide that alternative.

But I do believe those things to believe in were there all along. The NHS and our open democracy, whatever the flaws and imperfections of our institutions they have endured and survived for a reason – and not just for the benefit of the ‘elite’.

We just took them for granted, and now we are going to have to stand up and make sure people know that by speaking out, and know that while moderates might have it in their nature to compromise there are also some things we just can not loose in the process. We must not be drawn into a battle along violent lines as it will be used against those who do. We can’t loose our soul in trying to defend what is precious, nor should we try and reassure ourselves by finding justification for things that can not and should not be justified.

The Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius wrote in notes to himself;

"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.”

I think that message rings true now both for Leave and Remain supporters alike. You might have made a decision on 23rd June but you still have other choices to make now.

Choose to stay sane.

What exactly would we have to offer the US? I can only imagine that a trade agreement would be to our disadvantage, but hey that's OK because they speak English.

Still I am pleased to see Lego no longer planning any promotions with the Daily Heil. Let's see what happens with Gary Lineker and Walkers crisps.

We would offer legitimisation and say that the US are not toxic because of Trump...

George Magnus ‏@georgemagnus1
A lorra ppl tho Trump means the end of the world. Am no fan at all but America has more resilience and stronger institutions than Europe. If you're looking for a real shock, Europe is the place e.g. If France or Italy have a successful ref on leaving euro. And who'd bet against?
This by @JohnKayFT is v good. My sense precisely, and writing on it right now
www.ft.com/content/2f5262e8-a7f8-11e6-8898-79a99e2a4de6
Donald Trump’s victory is our post-crisis political reckoning

Globalisation, the central economic development of recent times, has produced winners and losers. Consumers benefited from cheap Chinese goods, financiers profited from the explosion of capital flows. But low-skilled manufacturing jobs disappeared to Asia and bankers’ bonuses failed to trickle down. Now the losers have demonstrated their resentment, in a surge of support for populist movements.

There is something in this explanation but not enough. And the prescriptions that emerge from it — tweaks to income distribution, more aid to failing industries and districts — are as a result too facile. They understate the scale and nature of the problem. And they will fail to promote cohesion in the future as they have failed to do so in the past.

While it is true that neither Brexit nor Mr Trump would have won without attracting the support of disaffected working-class voters in depressed areas, many of those who voted for either were not economically disadvantaged. Polls have shown that the average income of Mr Trump’s voters was above that of Hillary Clinton supporters. The strongest predictors of voting behaviour have been age, education level and ethnicity — not income.

And

The demise of practical socialism, meanwhile, destroyed the traditional basis of party organisation. Today Europe’s traditional social democratic parties are led by a metropolitan elite whose preoccupation with the environment and discrimination has little resonance with the traditional working-class base.

And the old parties of the right were uneasy coalitions of those who had most to fear from socialism. Business and the rich, liberal individualists, social conservatives, religious groups — groups that had little in common with each other except the same enemy.

Our traditional parties have turned on themselves and fragmented. They have created the space that Mr Trump has filled so successfully.

The rise of social media removed filters to expression, encouraging a sense that all views were equally valid, and paved the way for “truthiness” — the notion that something is true merely because you believe it to be so. The established media, the traditional filters, largely abandoned that role. It became too easy to read only confirmation of one’s own prejudices.

and finally
Mr Trump is simply the latest of the authoritarian xenophobes who have secured leadership positions since the beginning of history. The sophisticated institutions of modern democracy, with checks and balances at every stage, have mostly — but, dangerously, not always — kept such demagogues under control. But since the ineffectual response of democratic politicians to the global financial crisis, the contrary pressures have become too great to be resisted.

Also, Trump seems to have played the populist card, at least in part, for convenience and in order to secure votes. He does not seems to be an ideologue. Whilst this is not admirable, it might mean in practice that America has (inadvertently) dodged a bullet.

The problem with far right leaders in Europe (and I'm starting to include the hard Brexit wing of the Tory party in this) is that they really believe what they are saying. This is much more dangerous.

I have just spent some time in Brexit land and it is deeply depressing. Things have moved on from the parroting of Daily Fail rhetoric to truly tribal behaviour. Even someone making the point that they are taking advantage of an Irish parent to get an EU passport because they have been told they need one to stay in their (Science research as part of an EU team) job gets them branded derogatarily a remoaner, with no discussion of their actual views. It is provoking bitterness, against the south, elites etc. when there is no cause in terms of personal experience / living standards, these are comfortably off people living in beautiful parts of the country. Every observation you make, let alone when you try to point up some of the reality in the face of all the misinformation , is vulnerable to being pounced on as proof you are part of a stereotype of the tax avoiding, rich without earning a living, out of touch London elite. My DCs had little difficulty in convincing one elderly group that London was in the process of putting up borders in preparation for becoming a city state under the leadership of Sadiq Khan. I do wonder how we can unite a country so fully engaged now in these tribal divisions. The only glimmer of hope is that Farage and Trump are hated and the last few days are causing sincere shock and concern. They do not see Brexit and Trump as at all related.

On China I heard Carrie Gracie makes some very good points on Radio 4 which are in part in this earlier article. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-37924880 China sees Trump as an opportunity to engage people with their great catchphrase "the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the China dream" , in the face of the peoples' previous enthusiasm for the American dream, and western values being undermined. "Over recent years, Chinese commentators have often said that American wars in Afghanistan and Iraq damaged Chinese faith that the US could be trusted to lead on the world's geopolitics, and that the 2008 financial crisis damaged Chinese faith that the US could be trusted to lead on the global economy.
Now a bitter and scandal-ridden presidential race has damaged Chinese confidence that Americans can be trusted to run themselves." "9 November 2016 may mark the moment when China left the American Dream behind forever."

In particular I had been thinking this about Trump's ability to engage with China in terms of his economic policy and their pursuit of greater geopolitical power " its trade negotiators have had many months to game every possible Trump move on tariffs, market access or exchange rates. And Beijing will have logged that many of the long-time Asia experts in the Republican Party have already ruled out working for a Trump presidency. When it comes to fighting Mr Trump's economic game, Beijing will be ready for him.
It may also calculate that trade is a game in which it can afford to give Mr Trump some wins in exchange for its own coveted wins in the great game of geopolitics in Asia."

The ASEAN countries and the rest of Asia have long looked to America to help them maintain as far as possible self determinism in the face of China's influence and economic power. They must be worried now.

OMFG That video on the pub thread! What's scaring me now is that the punters like it. How dangerous this is

"The Department of Health said the relevant rules are enshrined in UK law as a result of an EU regulation on the sale of baby formula. “These rules are currently in place because of EU law,” a spokesman said. “But our great repeal bill means that when we leave the EU, laws such as these will be debated and controlled by the UK parliament.”
That is disgusting and untrue. Even if there is such a law associated with the EU, the reason why tesco or other retailers do not allow promotions on formula products is the International Code of Marketing of Breast-milk Substitutes a WHO code which the UK signed in 1981. The Code has only been partially implemented into UK law but I am pretty sure that this has been a UK regulation since around 2007.
I am actually shocked that the DH is using breastfeeding as a vehicle for anti EU propaganda, absolutely gobsmacked, considering that BF actually saves the NHS million of £ each year.

For some reason it has taken me until this statement by the DH (I work in a job related to maternity & BF) to feel that feel like I've fallen through the looking glass.

breastfeeding as a vehicle for anti EU propaganda

It seems there is no limit to how low some will stoop to justify Leaving the EU

That is disgusting and untrue. I said upthread that this sounded like blatant propaganda. Who can we complain to?

BUT - note the weasely words. It's enshrined in UK via EU law, because it's an International Code, which they could have said but didn't, and that we signed up to before the EU came into being. Discussed and debated in Parliament - maybe, and decide that they will stick by their international obligations.

Tesco to, jumping on the bandwagon - as has been said, they could give free parking anyway, if they chose and no nonsense about tokens.

Typical to blame the EU though.

I am sitting here and I simply am unable to digest that comment by the DH.

The purpose of the DH is to protect population health. According to the NHS "increase in breastfeeding could save NHS £40m a year". For better or worse for over 15 years BF has been heavily promoted by the NHS and DH overall increasing BF rates but also sometimes resulting in personal misery for women who could not or would not BF 'successfully'. A rather large body of evidence shows that embedding the International Code of Marketing of Breast-milk Substitutes in legislation increase BF rates significantly.

With this in mind the Department of Health turns around and effectively says:

Hey, once we Brexit, this legislation that protects BF (and improves population health and saves the NHS £ in preventable hospital admissions) will be open for discussion and the legislation will possibly be dropped therefore encouraging the formal industry to market their products in the UK England and Wales and, as a result, reduce BF rates, which will impact the health of babies and mothers negatively and further increase health inequalities. I am [shocked] that the DH so callously use infant and maternal health to further their brexit agenda.

I want to cry.

There has been some discussion of the Latino / Hispanic vote. The US authorities are misguided on the issue of the ethnicity / race of people originating in Central and Latin America, many of which would not tick a box that said Black, White, Hispanic or Latino, because they view themselves as being from multiple mixed races, and tick the other races box accordingly. The census figures are very suspect for that reason. Countries in the Spanish and Portuguese empires (and that includes in the case of Portugal, Asian ones too) saw a much greater degree of mixing and interbreeding than those in the British Empire. Colonisers tended to stay and settle (and of course their germs helped wipe out huge numbers of the existing populations) , and there arose a complicated caste system that labelled a bewildering array of racial combinations, from Old Spanish (born in Spain) Creoles (Spanish but born in the Empire) Mestizos (Spanish /Indian) Mulattos (Spanish / African ) and all sorts of other combinations (including in some places the Welsh and Scottish) but at the same time was much more fluid than the British colonial hierarchies. Different castes held different positions in different countries according to the economic and cultural environments. Just think about the difference between Mexico, Peru, Brazil and Argentina. In Florida for instance you will have the descendants of Cuban exiles who were part of the alliance of elite and gangsters under American patronage who will be very right wing and Republican and identify as having Spanish heritage alongside those who would identify as black and others like Pitbull who is manifestly a product of different cultures whatever his political views. Any assumption of some sort of homogenous Latino / Hispanic group with any sort of common racial background (or even language) is clearly flawed.

weaving My feeling has been that the pendulum on breast feeding has been swinging in the media for a while, with some sort of association with facism. "Breast feeding nazis" was not a term I ever heard when I was at that stage of my life.

However I suspect that this has not come from Jeremy Hunt but from some underling expressing their own opinions, or more likely, what they think the government would like them to say

However I suspect that this has not come from Jeremy Hunt but from some underling expressing their own opinions, or more likely, what they think the government would like them to say

They need to be called out on it though - even if it's an underling trying to curry favour. I never heard the term breast feeding nazis when I was doing it either.

Than you weaving and others for your posts on baby milk/Tesco/DH
So shocked and disgusted, we need to fight this but I don't know how. So surreal.

The problem is, you call people out on things like the statement from the DH, nobody has any sensible response, then you get told you are an elitist remoaner who thinks all leavers are stupid.

I suspect you are right whatwould.

I just cannot understand why the DH would even comment on something like this it doesn't make sense. One idiot, whether instructed by his superiors at the DH or not, intentionally, flippantly and publicly undermines a UK policy , which has been campaigned and fought for for decades and which is designed to support maternal, infant and child health as well as reduce health * social inequalities and save the public cash in health care costs.

The DoH could so easily have said why they supported breastfeeding and if necessary made a comment to the effect that Supermarkets' parking policies are not within their remit.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/11/nigel-farage-donald-trump-groper-in-chief-ukip
I'm sure most of you have read Marina Hydrocodone in the Guardian today. This made me lol.
This week I saw a hilarious clip of Trump beckoning Farage out of a crowd – a bit like Courteney Cox in the Dancing in the Dark video – and Farage telling him obsequiously he was “handing over the mantle”. Aw, the look on his little face just for being noticed! It was like a wildlife documentary, where some weaker male in the pack defers to the alpha. Donald has had the sex Nigel only wishes he’d had. Still, if Nigel can’t have had it, he’s going to stand as near to someone who has as he’s allowed.

Absolutely Peregrina. Instead they seem to have fed a line to the Daily Mail.

Sorry about stupid auto correct. Marina Hyde it is!

britishasiansuk.com/pakistani-news-channel-claims-donald-trump-was-born-in-pakistan-as-dawood-ibrahim-khan/

A strange story from Pakistan, which says that Trump was born there and later taken to America after losing his parents. I believe it's meant to be satire, but if it gained any traction whatever, it would serve Trump and his cohorts right for constantly questioning where Obama was born.

weaving - why don't you tweet/contact Sarah Wollaston? If that Department of Health comment is wrong, they need to be pulled up on it.

From the NYT - "They say that Mr. Trump, who was shocked when he won the election, might spend most of the week in Washington, much like members of Congress, and return to Trump Tower or his golf course in Bedminster, N.J., or his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach on weekends."

mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/12/us/politics/trump-president.html?_r=0&referer=

He'll get bored.