Westministenders. Boris worries about the land of his birth and simply wonders, what the hell next!?

[RedToothBrush]

Of all the Westministers intro I’ve done to date, I think this has been the hardest to write.

My first thought is where on earth to start, and then where to stop with how Trump’s victory affects us in the UK. It completely changes international relations. The political fall out is going to be considerable and potentially radioactive in its toxicity.

To hardened Brexiteers, America falling to Trump represents the domino effect in progress. It will embolden them. And the fear is that on 4th December both Italy and Austria could fall next as they respectively, face a referendum and a re-run of the presidential election.

And then there’s France…

All of this is a threat to the EU. It just leaves everyone, including the UK asking what next? And what of our relationship with the US? Who knows? It makes it look around and say, can we rely on the US, and without the US surely we have no choice but to grow closer to the EU. Perhaps there is a role for us in-between but there really are no guarantees and do we want to make that choice?

The suggestion is that May has no love for Trump. And whilst the hard right might harbour fantasies about becoming the 51st State, which seem to be led by Farage himself, this exposes the one red line that could bring the fury of the country down on the government to its extinction. The NHS. Its not for sale. Its not to be subject to a trade deal.

In a curious turn of events, rumours grow that the government will contend at the Supreme Court that a50 CAN be reversed afterall. Davis had personally been responsible for the original line that its not reversible. This was a political decision to tie us into leaving, and show intent and seriousness to Leavers. Yet it was always a crazy one that is not in the national interest.

Going back on this totally changes the game.

It would be a move that will go down well with Remainers and Liberal Leavers but will enrage the hardliners especially if the ECJ is part of this new tact.

It off loads a pile of risk and it is the prudent and sensible approach. It is much needed to protect the best interests of the country overall. Its also that magic ‘Get Out of Jail Free Card’ for that promised Nissan deal.

The change of tact would also help to appease MPs and much opposition to Brexit. And in doing so, also lessens the chances of a HoC rebellion against May and also reduces the chances of an early election, thus is perhaps a more stabilising way forward. It encourages negotiation of a good deal that other parties and rebels will also find agreeable rather than them feeling like they are being held to ransom on.

It would almost certainly delay things and might interfere with May’s precious timetable.

But there’s France… and the Presidential elections are in April/May

Do we really want to trigger article 50, if post Trump, the domino really is likely to fall there too and Le Pen wins the Presidency? There is suddenly a potential ally for major EU reform. Or even its collapse. Now is not the time to do something rash and drastic but to hold our nerve just a little longer.

It makes sense to everyone to hang fire and delay. If only briefly to see what now happens.

There are dangers in doing this though. The prospect of the ECJ being involved in a case which is in essence about our Constitution, is not only embarrassing but could be explosive. It will raise fears of leavers that Brexit will not happen. It will play to the extremes and the agenda of UKIP. It exposes judges to the press and criticism that they are activists and also trying to stop Brexit. Though Gove seems to have changed his tune and is defending them rather more than he was previously...

With tensions running high will Farage get his 100,000 march? Maybe, maybe not. Only time will tell on that one. He is trying to win through intimidation though, and that makes people fear him if we don’t do his bidding and what’s happening over in the States only emboldens him and makes others fear him more. He is divisive and never will be able to serve the national interest, because of it no matter how honest his delusions of being an ambassador to Trump are.

It just adds to the growing sense of helplessness and growing question of whether the proud tradition of British liberalism can even survive? It becomes appears to many this is ultimately the goal of Mr Farage – and not the EU. The EU is just a protector of it.

Well I don’t believe that Farage does have it all his way and has the monopoly on people power, nor a connection to the public that no one else has.

One of the themes developing on twitter, is one about passion, hope and a new sense of purpose. One to defend British values and not become like Trumpland. We have a warning and an example of how it really could be worse and it’s not a pretty sight.

I remember during the referendum one poster unsure of how to vote, asking simply:
“I don't want to spoil my vote. I want to vote, and vote with conviction”.

It was a question I found difficult to answer at the time. To me it highlighted how much people did want something to believe in and to not having that. We must start to build on that, and provide that alternative.

But I do believe those things to believe in were there all along. The NHS and our open democracy, whatever the flaws and imperfections of our institutions they have endured and survived for a reason – and not just for the benefit of the ‘elite’.

We just took them for granted, and now we are going to have to stand up and make sure people know that by speaking out, and know that while moderates might have it in their nature to compromise there are also some things we just can not loose in the process. We must not be drawn into a battle along violent lines as it will be used against those who do. We can’t loose our soul in trying to defend what is precious, nor should we try and reassure ourselves by finding justification for things that can not and should not be justified.

The Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius wrote in notes to himself;

"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.”

I think that message rings true now both for Leave and Remain supporters alike. You might have made a decision on 23rd June but you still have other choices to make now.

Choose to stay sane.

Thanks Lurking. Good post nonetheless and just as paralysingly terrifying :(

The Gig economy is positively Dickensan in nature. It makes a mockery of the idea that May is trying to promote of no loss of workers rights.

news.sky.com/story/ukip-misspent-eu-funding-on-brexit-campaign-says-leaked-audit-10660254
UKIP 'misspent' EU funding on Brexit campaign, says leaked audit
The party spent hundreds of thousands in EU cash on polling ahead of the General Election and EU referendum, a leaked audit says.

And on the same story:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/17/eu-set-to-ask-ukip-group-to-repay-almost-150000-in-misspent-funds?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
EU set to ask Ukip group to repay almost £150,000 in 'misspent funds'

They apparently will be asked to repay £150,000. A £150,000 they don't have...

And since this is in Euros every time the pound drops the bill goes up.

At what point do they declare bankruptcy?

What was that about swamp draining? How many Kippers have been hauled up on EU expense fraud?

[www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/17/lib-dems-could-force-theresa-may-to-reveal-brexit-plans-before-article-50
Lib Dems 'could force Theresa May to reveal Brexit plans before article 50'
Party’s pro-EU peers believe there is no constitutional reason why they can’t add extra clauses to Brexit bill

Pro-remain Liberal Democrat peers believe they could insert extra clauses into even the most tightly worded Brexit bill to force Theresa May to tell parliament more about her negotiating plans before she triggers article 50.

With the supreme court judgment on whether the government must consult parliament before invoking article 50 – the formal process for leaving the European Union - not expected until the new year, the government is thought to be quietly drafting a basic bill that its lawyers believe would be hard to amend.

But constitutional experts have told the Lib Dems there is no obstacle to adding extra clauses to such legislation, which could force the government to publish a white paper detailing how it plans to approach talks with the other EU member-states – and even offer voters a second referendum.

In a statement, four Lib Dem peers who are also QCs – including Menzies Campbell and Alex Carlile – said: “We welcome the acceptance that a parliamentary bill is likely to be needed. We shall use parliamentary procedure to ensure that the act of parliament that emerges ensures that the government has to have regard to MPs’ and peers’ reasonable expectations of the negotiation process.”

Well when there is something being said that that Lords would not dare 'defy' an tightly worded a50 bill that is almost a challenge. It also misses the point that the entire purpose of the Lords is to hold the Commons to account, so if they don't do this then they are not doing their job.

There has been suggestions that attempt of this nature would endanger the future of the Lords. But what is the point of the Lords if they don't do this anyway, if they think it appropriate?

Strangely this comes on the same day as this:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38008315
Plans to curb House of Lords powers 'dropped'

Former House of Lords leader Lord Strathclyde came up with a proposal to remove peers' veto over laws - called statutory instruments - after a series of government defeats last year.

Sources say plans to remove the power from the Lords, where the Tories do not have a majority, have now been dropped.

^Labour peer Baroness Smith said the plan was an "absurd overreaction".
The government announced its review into the workings of Parliament after defeats in the House of Lords over controversial tax credit cuts.^

However, one source said it had now "been dumped". Another added: "The world has changed."

The change of heart is another policy planned by former Prime Minister David Cameron and former Chancellor George Osborne that Theresa May's government is abandoning.

I'm not sure what to make of this. Part of me thinks this is suspicious and more sweeping reforms could be proposed instead. But part of me also thinks this a consequence of Trump getting in, and there is a fear that without such powers it would leave the UK open to possible takeover from a dictator by removing an important check and balance in the system. The decision is quite something if that is the case. It illustrates there is a real deep concern that the UK is at risk of slipping into that kind of government. You have to say, that could have been a Cameron bullet we've dodged there.

On the other hand the decision is likely to be incredibly controversial, as I'm such some will say it really about supporting the Lords in blocking Brexit.

Its much more likely to be about avoiding any controversial issues, in the Commons / Lords whilst getting Brexit through - they don't want rebellions or embarrassing defeats.

Sources have also suggested the government has been discussing ways of building a more constructive relationship with the Lords.

This is interesting. I would suggest they could start by protecting the Lords from needing that amendment to the proposed a50 bill by opening up our position to parliamentary scrutiny properly.

And on this wonderful gig economy:
www.ft.com/content/55dcb2d6-ab5b-11e6-ba7d-76378e4fef24
Self-employed suffer worst of both worlds, says study
Large minority have neither employee protections nor freedoms of being own boss

Theresa May, prime minister, has ordered a review of workers’ rights in the changing economy, while HM Revenue & Customs has promised to take action on “false” self-employment.

The SMF’s analysis of an academic data set called “Understanding Society”, which follows 40,000 households, suggests that self-employed people overall do have more autonomy than employees. Nonetheless, one in three self-employed people said they did not have “a lot” of autonomy over their working hours, while 7 per cent said they had none at all. One in five said they did not have “a lot” of autonomy over their work tasks.

“This suggests that self-employed workers may be getting the worst of both worlds … people may look and behave very much like employees and yet lack the rights and protections of employees,” said Emran Mian, the SMF’s director.

Now there's a surprise.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/open-britain-video-single-market-nigel-farage-anna-soubry_uk_582ce0a0e4b09025ba310fce?
Open Britain Exposes All The Times Brexiters Promised We Wouldn’t Leave The Single Market

Meanwhile in America:
Brendan Karet @bad_takes
Trump surrogates are already citing Japanese internment camps from WW II as "precedent" for Muslim registry

There is a seriously terrifying video clip going around on twitter of a Fox News interview with Carl Higbie, a Trump advisors suggesting this. The interviewer gives him a hard time saying he couldn't suggest that, and in raised tones said "This is the stuff that scares people". Which is quite something given its Fox News not a more left wing channel.

The Gig economy is positively Dickensan in nature

and can be seen in action in every red light district in the UK ....

theconversation.com/no-this-isnt-the-1930s-but-yes-this-is-fascism-68867
No, this isn’t the 1930s – but yes, this isfascism

while HM Revenue & Customs has promised to take action on “false” self-employment.

you know what HMRC could do that would be an improvement ? They could pull the heads out of their arses and the nineteenth century and deliver a service which actually matches the real world. Them and the DWP.

(Kids, in the 90s the department that preceded the DWP was the Department of Health and Social Security. Fondly known as the Department of Stealth and Total Obscurity - for reasons which really haven't changed).

To answer Bored'squestion I do recognise something has to give, I am for the middle way too. However if we are to offset the growth that has come in the gig economy with growth in the industries that have more sustainable business models that do generate the margins that pay for good HR practises, such as banking, engineering, tech and science then free movement, and indeed the EU ,are extremely important to those sectors of the economy. It is not actually good business practise, except in a few industries where freelancing does deliver status as well as a reasonable living , to treat people like commodities, you do not get the best from human beings if they have no ownership and no status in their working life. These practises have come about because the economy has grown into parts of industry sectors where margins are tight, like the warehousing and distribution of pile them high and sell them cheap business models, it is too simplistic to blame it all on corporate greed /sharks like Sports Direct (though there need to be tighter measures to stop the latter.

I want to see this country focusing on where it can add value and generate the revenue that sustains good employment practises. In Science for instance we are already seeing that go wrong. This Is an article on the measurably greater value added of EU collaboration versus collaboration with the US (which of course is going to take a hit in funding from ,climate change is a Chinese con, Trump. ) www.nature.com/nature/journal/v539/n7629_supp/full/539S26a.html

From the Noam Chomsky interview linked below:

As Greenspan explained during his glory days, his successes in economic management were based substantially on "growing worker insecurity." Intimidated working people would not ask for higher wages, benefits and security, but would be satisfied with the stagnating wages and reduced benefits that signal a healthy economy by neoliberal standards.

It seems that those "intimidated working people", the losers of modern economies, are blindly turning towards far-right leaders without realising that all those leaders want is to maintain their own positions at the top of the economic pyramid.

As is being pointed out here, most leavers, or even most conservative voters, were not champing at the bit for less job security, lower wages and more privatisation.

One of the few prognosticators I have time for, is James Burke. Generally his use of history to cast the runes has been a damn sight more accurate than people who are paid to call the future.

I was intrigued in an interview a while back that his calling of the greatest threat to mankind was pandemics. Diseases which can outevolve our ability to treat them and which can be spread across the globe in 24 hours. (this is at last 5 years before the recent Ebola crisis).

The historical reflection being how quickly the Black Death killed off about 50% of the population, and gave manual workers the upper hand.

For England, the interesting side note is despite that, the upper classes kept hold of their land (which most of them still have).

Incidentally, most regimes that drift into totalitarianism end up imploding, as the maelstrom of infighting and backstabbing needed to ensure people are kept on their toes generates a sort of spinning-top instability.

The upper echelons of the third reich were at times paralysed by infighting. None of which was helped by Hitlers habit of giving different subordinates the same jobs, and letting them fight it out with each other.

All of a sudden, the May apppintments of Fox, Johnson and Davis take on a different tone ....

DMcD: how do you arrive at your assumption (most Leavers.....)?

Bored - polls such as the one referred to here re employment rights which suggest leave voters largely want to retain EU style employment rights:

sm.britsafe.org/remain-and-leave-voters-united-workers%E2%80%99-rights

I'm not sure that poll confirms the points you made in your post though.

Autonomy in the 'Gig Economy'?!
DH has been contracting for the last few years, not out of choice, in white collar industry. The stress is huge, and the conditions are deteriorating. Knowing you can be instantly dismissed but have no recourse to HR means bullying and aggression is rife. Ridiculous work expectations. And the latest is longer notice periods for him than for the employer (so they can get rid of him with 1 weeks notice, he has to give 1 months notice).
Manageable temporarily, not something I'd want long term, and certainly not something that I'd wish to see expanded.

And the latest is longer notice periods for him than for the employer (so they can get rid of him with 1 weeks notice, he has to give 1 months notice)

If that could ever find it'say into a court (or Tribunal ?) it could be challenged as unfair.

Mistigri,' if Labour had any balls (they don't) they would be all over it (the 'exciting' gig economy).

I've written to my (Labour Corbynista!) MP to ask a) if they're planning to be all over it and b)what assurances she can give me that Labour will be holding the government to account on all its activities in this area.

I can't say I'm holding my breath.

Lurking If that could ever find it's way into a court (or Tribunal ?) it could be challenged as unfair
I'd always assumed that the clause was invalid to be honest, but who wants to hang around in tribunal corridors for days to find out? And even if it is invalid, making a fuss might reduce chances of getting another 'exciting gig'. And that's the whole point isn't it?

EU set to ask Ukip group to repay almost £150,000 in 'misspent funds'

Oh dear. Better ask Arron Banks for a sub.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/11/brexit-nightmare-we-will-soon-be-unable-ignore

I don't think this has been posted before, I apologies if it has. It talks about the difficulties involved in repealing laws which emanate from the EU.

I disagree with the writer's last sentence - When reality hits home, it will hardly be surprising if we see people asking for a rethink of the Brexit decision. I don't think they will, they will just cast about for someone else to blame.

I disagree with the writer's last sentence - When reality hits home, it will hardly be surprising if we see people asking for a rethink of the Brexit decision. I don't think they will, they will just cast about for someone else to blame.
...or continue to deny reality, saying 'everything's been grand since 24th June.'

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

On how the government is doing at negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union:
Well: 18% (-7)
Badly: 52% (+6)
(via YouGov)

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-mps-just-begged-government-9279778#ICID=sharebar_twitter
These Tory MPs just begged their own government to delay ESA disability benefit cuts

Heidi Allen said her fellow Tory MPs faced "pressure" to back the cuts with the promise of a White Paper on welfare reform which never came.

Ms Allen told MPs: "I cannot think of a vote that has been so regretted by colleagues on my side of the House.

"Let’s just pause. The risk of damage is high. The financial cost to pause is low. What kind of a government do we want to be?

"If we want to be the government of unity, rallying and rejoining the nation after the splits caused by Brexit , how will we explain that vision to two cancer sufferers?

"I can picture them side by side in hospital, both receiving chemotherapy, but receiving different levels of welfare support."

One Tory MP, Jeremy Lefroy, warned victims would suffer “considerable debt”.

A third, Peter Aldous, said: "There is concern there has not been a full and proper impact assessment of the proposed changes.

“What is emerging is a lottery with some family types being more adversely affected than others.”

Also speaking up against the government were David Burrowes and Caroline Ansell.

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam
Obama on Trump protesters: Lots of Presidents have had protests "I wouldn't advise them to be silent" and Obama reflecting on Trump protesters: "Dont take for granted our system of government and way of life"

www.lrb.co.uk/2016/11/14/rw-johnson/trump-some-numbers?utm_source=LRB+online+email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20161115+online&utm_content=ukrw_subsact

The last paragraph is worth a read!

On how the government is doing at negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union:
Well: 18% (-7)
Badly: 52% (+6)
(via YouGov)

I'm still convinced it's being done deliberately badly so the whole thing (eventually) falls apart. I thought it as soon as The Three Stooges were put in charge.

I'm not convinced it's being done deliberately badly myself. I think it just shows what a total bunch of incompetents the lot of them are. And that includes the official opposition too.

(apologies to Messrs Elton and Curtis)

I want to see how Brexit is done. So badly

I am glad to hear Tory MPs speaking up for the disgrace that is the cuts to ESA disability benefits. Not only is it inhumane but it has to be one of the worst bureaucratic tick box cock ups ever.