This is potentially a game-changer!

[pensivepolly]

Breaking news from the High Court on Article 50: www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/03/parliament-must-trigger-brexit-high-court-rules

CaptainBB: "I voted Remain but I could accept leaving so much more easily if it seemed that anyone had thought it through beforehand, anticipated some of the pitfalls and set out a clear and concise manifesto of what Leave means and how they would handle its implementation. The whole thing is just chaotic and this just seems like another ridiculous development which proves again how utterly unprepared everyone was for this. Cameron should be held to account for creating this utter debacle in the first place."
Thrice yes.

I am not sure whether fervent Remainers 'just want to get on with it'. I am sure they would rather that the due processes were followed and time was taking to get things right.

I agree with this.

The point is that if we were to trigger a50 tomorrow, because we have not properly worked out all the implications - never mind started thinking about the solutions - we would be negotiating for 2 years at the same time as working this out (so making it up as we go along which is not a good move) and we simply would not be ready in practical terms to leave in 2 years - even for a transitional deal.

So with the best will in the world, 'just getting on with it' isn't possible.

In fact, 'just getting on with it' should INCLUDE pulling all these problems out of our arses so we can deal with them ahead of the fact. If this means using the courts to force the government to face up to that because they are not willing to, then I don't see what else can be done.

The government should be leading by highlighting problems themselves and tackling them so it gives less scope for people to complain and get upset about leaving. Not having people present every problem by force to a government who is unwilling to listen and be vilified in the process for, simply having the 'audacity' to do what the government should be doing by itself without prompting, by pointing these problems, which effectively is what is happening.

The problems are arising, because the government is not doing its job properly and is far more concerned about the next general election instead.

Many remainers would simply be happier if the government had the bottle to act in a professional manner.

This isn't actually a huge demand in reality.

Red what are your thoughts as to why the government is in such a rush? Everything is pointing to a rushed autocratic process being a disaster. The autocratic thing is very risky politically as if May wants to control it all she and her party will take the hit when/if it fails. We could well be in recession by the time the GE is called, and presumably the conservatives will be blamed for that. I'm just baffled by her thinking (if that's what she does).

Indeed Red, and this is of course why so many of the not deranged Leavers also want things to be done properly rather than quickly. Better to accept this is inevitably a process that will take some time. I mean, imagine what a nightmare it would be if there were court cases after Article 50 were triggered. The desire for speed to be prioritised isn't a Remain/Leave cleavage.

It has been said that May is control freak and would have the last word on everything when she was Home Secretary.

I think it is laughable that she pretended not to acknowledge the law she should uphold (see my attachment). That's why there's price to pay and if this is an early election she would be to blame.

what are your thoughts as to why the government is in such a rush? Everything is pointing to a rushed autocratic process being a disaster. The autocratic thing is very risky politically as if May wants to control it all she and her party will take the hit when/if it fails. We could well be in recession by the time the GE is called, and presumably the conservatives will be blamed for that. I'm just baffled by her thinking (if that's what she does).

Not RTB but FWIW:

• it was clear to anyone who had a good grasp of what brexit meant that the premiership was a poisoned chalice. That's why callmedave went. TM was only peripherally involved in the referendum campaign so she was poorly equipped to understand what a complex task she was taking on. We know her grasp of the issues was poor because she appointed the three monkeys; anyone who knew anything about the EU would have realised that Fox in particular does not have a job to do until after brexit is complete.

• having taken on a task which she was poorly equipped to assess has put May in a position that plays to her weaknesses. She has many qualities as a politician, but she has an authoritarian bent, she doesn't like to be told she's wrong, and she is prone to rigid thinking. Not a good combination right now.

• she is also in a hugely difficult political position, despite her lead in the polls, because the party she leads is fatally divided. A GE would require a manifesto. A hard brexit manifesto would risk mutiny if not more resignations by the party intellectuals, the one nation tories, and those like Stephen Phillips who have a strong moral position. A soft brexit manifesto would lose the right of the party and the Ukip vote.

• this means that she does not want to risk an early GE. But at the same time, she needs brexit to be complete well before 2020 and ideally before the next european elections in 2019. That means a tight timetable and hence the undignified rush to trigger A50.

The autocratic thing is very risky politically as if May wants to control it all she and her party will take the hit when/if it fails.

The party and the right wing press will do their utmost to pass the buck to someone else. E.g. consider how Corbyn was criticised for not coming out strongly in support of Remain. Anyone would think it was he who called the Referendum, not Cameron who called a Referendum because he hadn't the guts to face down some backbenchers.

A hard brexit manifesto would risk mutiny if not more resignations by the party intellectuals, the one nation tories, and those like Stephen Phillips who have a strong moral position.

Yes, I read up on him - in many ways he is the ideal Tory candidate: public school, short period in the Army, barrister, but at the same time has a well developed social conscience and served as a Governor of a Special school. Many Tories will be able to identify with him, in a way that they can't with the UKIP tendency. May would do well to try to hang on to MPs like him. Even now, people are trying to find things to criticise him for - he voted Leave, so they can't get him on that. Ah, but he's a barrister and spends too much time on his legal work. He says not, and that he discharges his Parliamentary duties fully.

3amEternal Sat 05-Nov-16 11:51:23
Red what are your thoughts as to why the government is in such a rush? Everything is pointing to a rushed autocratic process being a disaster. The autocratic thing is very risky politically as if May wants to control it all she and her party will take the hit when/if it fails. We could well be in recession by the time the GE is called, and presumably the conservatives will be blamed for that. I'm just baffled by her thinking (if that's what she does).

Simple. Power and Money

A fast Brexit, would mean certain people shaped the country in a particular way with lasting effect to a generation and beyond. The Great Repeal Bill is your clue. The Henry VIII clauses would allow the executive to do just about anything. Getting that passed means that Brexit is a blank cheque to any Right Wing Agenda you like really. As long as you can use "necessary as part of Brexit" as an excuse. It would mean accountability of government went flying out the window.

Its an ideological thing. The practicality don't matter really. If they stuff it up, as long as they get those bits through its fine. They won't suffer, but they get the Britain they want. To hell with how this affect the people at large who voted for Brexit. They don't care about them anyway>

I said before the referendum that one of the things that the EU does, is in part, provide an additional check to our own democracy and the limits of power. By putting it all back in the UK, there will be one less thing to keep power spread out and not abused. So the actions now, don't particularly surprise me as such, but they do go further than I feared. The Lords will be the next thing to get criticised by the way.

This is probably why a certain document pointing out how the Lords saw all these problems ahead of the fact and were overruled by some knob jockeys in the Tory Party has suddenly appeared. Self preservation and defence before they get lined up in front of the firing squad. Something is brewing there...

We shall see how it goes. The trouble is in playing to the right, May is alienating the other side of her party. She might be overcooking her right wing fantasy. It some ways the more she does this, the better it might be as it rips the conservatives in half and builds a larger opposition against here despite its diverse nature because its unified in its support for the British values and British institutions that May seeks to tear down in the name of the People (spoken like a true dictator and almost a direct translation of words that have sprung from Erdogan's lips).

In this country there is no 'will of the people'. The will of the people does not exist as a concept as it is flawed precisely because it can be abused. Which is why we have these institutions and parliamentary power in the first place.

Those who want British fastest are the ones who don't want you to realise what they are doing until its too late.

what are your thoughts as to why the government is in such a rush? Everything is pointing to a rushed autocratic process being a disaster. The autocratic thing is very risky politically as if May wants to control it all she and her party will take the hit when/if it fails. We could well be in recession by the time the GE is called, and presumably the conservatives will be blamed for that. I'm just baffled by her thinking (if that's what she does).

I have a nasty feeling that when you and I think about Brexit we think about possible effects on ourselves, our families, and society at large over decades, but when politicians think about it they have in mind one election cycle. Beyond that, well, something will turn up won't it?

The party and the right wing press will do their utmost to pass the buck to someone else.

To my mind, the one constant in all of this will be that it's the Remainers' fault. The only way the Remainers could be sure to get off the hook would be to say "we are only 48%, we have no say in anything, we leave you to make all the decisions over the next decade". It would take this to permit the Remainers to say "all this stuff happening now, this is what you've done".

Excellent post Red

why the rush

its not a rush and even in this time scale its tough on the economy. Of course we need to move relatively quickly to stablise everything and move forward we dont know where we are until we trigger A50.

As dear FF said - we need the whole government behind this - they bloody well need to get behind Brexit and use all their so called brains to get the best out of it for us all.

Getting that passed means that Brexit is a blank cheque to any Right Wing Agenda you like really

Goodness what a sweeping statement and very odd considering its likely most of the current labour top brass actually VOTED BREXIT - THEY VOTED TO LEAVE.

yes an excellent post that totally ignores the labour top brass voted leave - if you want paint this in a right left fight which quite simply ITS NOT.

Its not right left no matter how much certain - posters who seem to have the time to post for hours all the time and in great long tracts think it is.

Brexit does not mean one particular thing. Brexit means different things to different people. This is one of the huge parts of the problem and one of the things that was quite deliberately exploited by the heads of the Vote Leave and Leave.Eu campaigns.

In addition to this there was also another lobby group for Brexit, loosely called Lexit.

So if the 'Current Labour Top Brass', who may or may not have voted for Brexit do so, then they did so for their own ideological reasons because they wanted to set the country on a particular new course.

Its only when many of that mindset have woken to the fact they have been stiffed and used to get a Right Wing Brexit which is very different from what they had in mind.

Autumn it's quite clear here and labour top brass voted leave, where you there?

yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted/

There have always been left wing reasons for Brexit, but they're quite different to the extreme right position that TM's government is driving towards.

It's very much not a left-right issue - I agree with autumn there. The division is between isolationism and openless and between liberalism and authoritarianism.

If you look at the political spectrum, the further you move left and right, the more support for brexit there is. The more you move to the centre, the more support for remaining.

This puts both parties in a difficult position, because received wisdom is that you don't win UK elections by moving too far from the centre.

This is why May is so keen to shift the Overton window by whipping up the nastier parts of the UK press.

Sorry, early morning typos - but the meaning is clear.

If you look at the political spectrum, the further you move left and right, the more support for brexit there is. The more you move to the centre, the more support for remaining

Personally I don't think it is even that clear cut.

Personally I don't think it is even that clear cut.

I don't think it's completely clear cut, especially on the left but also on the right (some estimates suggests that 5% of kippers voted remain ) but it is true as a general statement.

It would be even more true if I had written:

"the further you move right or left, the more support for hard brexit there is"

I do in fact know some fairly centrist liberal eurosceptics (including my dad!) but none of them are opposed to the single market.

To hell with how this affect the people at large who voted for Brexit. They don't care about them anyway>

This sounds cynical, but I agree. Don't think anyone of May, Rudd, Johnson, Fox, Davis, Leasdom, Fargage, Redwood and a few others will come to your rescue - they are all wealthy and will look after no. 1. Look how Cameron cleared off 'toot sweet' with a few crocodile tears about not being the man to take us forward, but probably with a few real tears for being rumbled.

This is probably why a certain document pointing out how the Lords saw all these problems ahead of the fact and were overruled by some knob jockeys in the Tory Party has suddenly appeared. Self preservation and defence before they get lined up in front of the firing squad. Something is brewing there...

This slightly tangentally led me to the thought that people have been telling us they wanted out for years and years and now, hurrah, their dreams are about to come through. Just exactly how many people knew that a Referendum bill was passed in December 2015 having gone through all the due Parliamentary processes? How many knew how their own MP voted on the issue, or what amendements if any they proposed? I am happy to hold my hand up and say that I didn't until after the event. The vast majority of people didn't give two hoots (being polite).

its likely most of the current labour top brass actually VOTED BREXIT - THEY VOTED TO LEAVE.
We don't know. I am not a Labour supporter but this does feed my belief that the press have tried to pin the blame on Corbyn. For myself, I am quite convinced it's the Leasdom tendency in the Tory party who voted for Brexit - but the BBC have never gone to interview the small minded smug little Englander's that live in the South - East (where I do) and find out how and why they voted.

That's why there's price to pay and if this is an early election she would be to blame.

Which unfortunately she would win by a landslide.

morning
No I wouldn't be happy for TM to just go ahead and ignore the Courts because it would mean that she is acting like a small dictator by ignoring what is the basis of the British democracy, the Parliament.
I am VERY happy to live in a DEMOCRACY. One that has existed for hundred of years and one that has protected the country from its rulers excesses (it being the king, queen or Prime Minister).
I would not welcome a situation where it would be seen as OK for the PM to do as he/she pleases wo following what is the basis of the British constitution.
Because today it's Brexit. But what would the next step, the next good reason to ignore the laws? History tells us there are lots of possibilities and none of them are 'nice' ones or things I would like to see happening in this country.

I'm really not sure where this idea that the MP will not follow what the 'people' have voted for is coming from? Why the fear if you are so sure that you are acting the 'will of people'???

Farage is just on Andrew Marr and has just said that this could be the end of the House of Lords.

This is a test of constitutional power and our institutions now.

Goodness what a sweeping statement and very odd considering its likely most of the current labour top brass actually VOTED BREXIT - THEY VOTED TO LEAVE.

Even if this were true, and it's not like you know, how do you think that refutes the point RTB is making? You didn't really explain that part.