This is potentially a game-changer!

[pensivepolly]

Breaking news from the High Court on Article 50: www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/03/parliament-must-trigger-brexit-high-court-rules

Nope.

llikk

And it's easy for even a laymen not great at maths to have a cursory glance through the results list of EU voting areas at the percentages to see that a vote based on geographical area, be it EU voting areas or U.K. Parliamentary constituencies will be massively skewed towards Leave, and far removed from the overall vote with a difference of less than 2%.

If MP's do vote in line with the majority vote of their constituents then the Leave vote will be carried with a far greater majority than the overall voting figures so insisting on a parliamentary vote on serves to strengthen the Leave movement. Remainers are shooting themselves in the foot on this one...unless MP's overrule the will of the people they were voted in to represent

Are MP voted to represent people or are people voting fur somone to represent them?
In one case, the MP should follow what the majority of their electorate wants.
In the other, they will do as they ease as they have been chosen by people for the ideas and values they defend.
Usually what happens is the second option. I've never came seen anMP suddenly deciding that they would not support the government t because their constituency happens to against xxx
So why should it happen this time?

But again more to the point, this decision by the judges has NEVER been about Remain against leave but about democracy.

The Remain vote was also mostly concentrated in areas where there are a lot of constituencies mistigri. I'm not suggesting the 39% figure is necessarily wrong, I'd just like to know how it was come up with. And also how an individual MP could identify what their own constituents voted if they're not in a constituency that was also a district for the referendum. I'm not being snarky, I would like to know. I reckon there are quite a lot of MPs who would too!

Does the data even exist to "know" this? I imagine it's amenable to reasonably accurate estimation in areas where there was a clear vote to leave or remain ie not a marginal win, or where there is no marked differences (in terms of voting patterns or socio demographics) between adjacent areas. In places where the vote was close, or where constituencies contain distinct leave and remain voting demographics, we may never know.

But on a constituency basis, I am certain that it is true to say there were more "wasted" remain votes than leave votes. In some parts of London, remain got over 75%. In a referendum, all of those votes "count", but if you translate them into a FPTP scenario, 25%+ of remain votes in some constituencies would have been "wasted" (ie were unnecessary to ensure a remain win).

Going on Joy'smum's figures it seems crazy for May NOT to call an election in January or February. I know she wants to avoid it because a GE will bring her Brexit strategy (or lack thereof) front and centre but in light of the court ruling she has everything to gain by doing it now. She'll win, thus becoming an elected PM which will shut up all the people complaining that she's unelected (despite her ascension to the PM job being completely legitimate in our parliamentary democracy... and we all love parliamentary democracy don't we ;))

So likely there'll be a GE, May wins in a landslide, Labour may be have the worst results in the history of the party and May emerges with a supportive majority in parliament and a powerless opposition making her Brexit position hard to fight.

I voted remain but the referendum was clear and even if it wasn't a large majority it was a majority and continued wrangling and attempts to delay or subvert the result will only do more harm. In a GE, at this point I don't know if I would vote for a Remain supporting MP actually, I just can't imagine the UK being welcomed back to the EU club after all that's passed and I do fear the repercussions in the UK if the will of teh referendum voters isn't respected.

Hummus - The issue of whether MPs will vote in line with their constituents or in line with their own judgement on Brexit is why I believe there will be a GE and it will be a de facto re-run of the referendum. I'm sure there are many pro-remain MPs (mostly Labour) who would like to avoid being put on the spot about which way they will vote on this but they won't be able to avoid stating their position if there's a GE.

A GE doesn't solve May's problems with division in her own party, though, nor does it resolve the Scottish and Irish questions. And it won't fundamentally change the fact that her negotiating position vis à vis the EU is weak.

A GE doesn't solve May's problems with division in her own party, though, nor does it resolve the Scottish and Irish questions. And it won't fundamentally change the fact that her negotiating position vis à vis the EU is weak.

It will give her a mandate and a huge majority and Labour will lose many seats. The divisions in the Tories will be resolved to an extent by a new manifesto. If MPs stand for re election on it then they have to abide by if as it was the ticket they were voted in on.

The only way the divisions in Labour will be resolved unfortunately is either by a split or Corbyn going.

The Scottish question will not go away until the SNP get independence lose Holyrood.

The Irish question is more complicated, I agree.

If MPs voted 6 to 1 in favour of a referendum, why are they now insisting on debating article 50 with the intention, like Nick Clegg has already said, of trying to enforce FOM in exchange for free trade? So not Brexit as voted for by the majority and therefore no change. Why did they bother voting for a referendum in the first place if they intended to scupper it?

I think a GE is inevitable if the appeal fails. A GE isn't something Europe wants, especially the French (presumably because of Marie lePen?) and they don't want delay. Getting a bit messy now.

"unless MP's overrule the will of the people they were voted in to represent"

My MP is is a 'leaver' yet her constituency are strongly remain. She does not represent me our my neighbours. If she votes leave in parliament which she will she would also be ignoring the views and need of her constituents.

I'm still just wondering how an individual MP finds out how their constituency voted. Nobody seems to have been able to explain as of yet. If it isn't actually possible for some MPs, doesn't that throw a bit of a spanner in the vote with conscience vs vote with constituents debate?

I have a LibDem MP in a strongly Leave area. MP would be in no doubt what his constituents want. He'd probably prefer not to vote against them... but that's different from Parliament having the right to scrutinise what the govt. strategy is for getting the best deal in Brexit.

Impossible to determine details, but something about the general starting point policy strategy is entirely reasonable to discuss.

In belated response to your question upthread, imo the judgement of the High Court of England/Wales in relation to this matter is fundamentally flawed because it is not the function of the courts to tell Parliament how to conduct its functions, Hyacinth.

Having dismissed a similar application, it would appear that the High Court of Northern Ireland has a more realistic view of its purpose than its English/Welsh counterpart and I look forward to reading the Supreme Court ruling in due course.

Lamentable as it may be, it seems to me that the egos of some of the judiciary are as big as some of the arses that sit in the two Houses.

I'm still just wondering how an individual MP finds out how their constituency voted

There's no sure fire way but looking at the EU voting area the constituency is part of and the surrounding areas is a good indicator.

The views of MP's don't tend to reflect the will of the electorate. I think the next 6 months are going to be very interesting.

One thing I really don't understand is why anyone of either side can't understand that, just as the Leave campaigners have spouted wanton untruths (I voted Leave despite the Leave campaign, not because of it), so the Remain campaigners who presented the referendum as being binding weren't any better, mind you they'd have accepted the results if it'd gone their way so it would have been I suppose.

There's no sure fire way but looking at the EU voting area the constituency is part of and the surrounding areas is a good indicator.

OK, glad we've got that cleared up. I'd probably want more than 'good indicator' before censoring an MP for voting against the wishes of their constituents, mind.

Wondering if you could do me a favour, though? As I mentioned upthread, I live in Manchester, which was very strongly remain. I would guess one constituency voted Leave, but obviously have been unable to verify that. Can you tell me how, using the methodology you mention, I might be able to ascertain?

In belated response to your question upthread, imo the judgement of the High Court of England/Wales in relation to this matter is fundamentally flawed because it is not the function of the courts to tell Parliament how to conduct its functions, Hyacinth.

Why do you think yesterday's result amounted to telling Parliament how to conduct its functions? I presume as you don't mention the executive, you do accept that the judiciary have the right and indeed duty to act as a check on that branch's unlawful behaviour?

Having dismissed a similar application, it would appear that the High Court of Northern Ireland has a more realistic view of its purpose than its English/Welsh counterpart and I look forward to reading the Supreme Court ruling in due course.

What makes you characterise the application that was dismissed in NI as similar to the one that won here yesterday?

As I have no wish to become bogged down embroiled in arguments on this thread, I suggest you read the judgements and form your own opinion, Hyacinth

www.judiciary.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/judgment-r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-eu-20161103.pdf

www.irishlegal.com/5759/applications-challenging-brexit-rejected-in-belfast-high-court/

it is not the function of the courts to tell Parliament how to conduct its functions, Hyacinth.

If that's correct it would mean that however Parliament were to conduct its functions, deciding to do things that are illegal, encouraging corruption to flourish, getting up to all kinds of stuff, then the courts would have no jurisdiction.

Surely after a moment's reflection it would be clear that such a view is ridiculous.

Hyacinth Just look up the results for your region of your city and also those of other districts if your parliamentary region happens to straddle more than one EU district.

Basic GCSE maths covers estimating and you can look to Google for a refresher if you can't remember how to do it (many of us understandably forget what we learnt the moment our exams are done!) Estimates will of course will inherently have a margin of error and it's up to you to decide whether to censor your MP based on your feelings about how close the vote was and how strongly you feel about the outcome. So many people are apathetic or don't care if they agree with the vote, even if it goes against the majority view.

I'm sure your local news sources will be looking at estimating in the run up to the parliamentary vote, and their audience debating this too, which would be useful to help you reach a conclusion. If it's that's finely balanced that you can't make up your mind then maybe you'd not need to hold your MP to account at all.

Oh I have goddess. I think, given point 103 of the judgement in particular, that it's untenable to suggest the NI application was sufficiently 'similar' to the one from the High Court to make a comparison valid. I also think, as did the government's own lawyers, that their argument was the opposite of realistic. But I already know what I think. I was interested in your views.

Thanks joysmum but while I appreciate that you took time to post, that's not been especially helpful. There seemed to be rather more in your post about how difficult it can be to work out rather than how to actually do it, which I agree with and which rather makes my point that the people in the thread claiming MPs can actually ascertain how their constituents voted need to think about whether that's actually possible or not.

In the City of Manchester, there are five parliamentary constituencies, one of which also covers some of neighbouring Trafford which also voted Remain. I reckon one of the constituencies entirely in Manchester probably voted Leave and the one covering areas of Manchester and Trafford could have done. That is only my guess of course, nothing to back it up (which is kind of my point). Nothing in local news sources that I have seen, other than speculation. Not immediately obvious how 'estimating' would help here either. Thus, as far as I can tell, our local MPs in Manchester, should they wish to use their vote to mirror their constituents in the referendum, may not be able to do so. This has obvious implications for the threats to riot concerns raised upthread that MPs should ensure they express their constituents wishes.

MPs won't block legislation to trigger Brexit, MPs care about votes and even fervent Remainers just want to get on with it, now.

House of Lords, otoh, HoL could put huge blocks on a bill to trigger Article 50.

I think, on the whole, when it actually comes to vote the Commons and Lords will vote to trigger article 50.

What's good about this judgement is that it pushes the responsibility back onto parliament and away from a secretive cabal of right wing Tories. Teresa May's handling of this whole process has, to date, been very poor.

I am not sure whether fervent Remainers 'just want to get on with it'. I am sure they would rather that the due processes were followed and time was taking to get things right.

The whole panic reaction since 24th June has been one of the problems - at a time when we needed sober reflection.

I'm so angry about what an absolute fucking farce the whole thing is. The referendum was so badly thought out; it seems like Cameron and the Leave campaigners didn't think for a second that Leave would win so didn't bother to think anything through beforehand. There is widespread confusion about what this judgement means and Leave seems to represent so many different things to its supporters it seems impossible to see a way forward that is going to make more than a handful of people happy. The discord, discontent and dissatisfaction this has stirred up is unbelievable and every option seems horrendous now. The idea of a GE with a landslide Tory victory seems most likely and most depressing to me. I voted Remain but I could accept leaving so much more easily if it seemed that anyone had thought it through beforehand, anticipated some of the pitfalls and set out a clear and concise manifesto of what Leave means and how they would handle its implementation. The whole thing is just chaotic and this just seems like another ridiculous development which proves again how utterly unprepared everyone was for this. Cameron should be held to account for creating this utter debacle in the first place.