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Brexit
Original poster

Scottish Independence

103 replies

wibblewobble8 · 13/10/2016 13:21

Now that it seems inevitable that there will be a second Scottish Independence Ref (re the news today) do you think Brexit will have an impact upon the result making it more likely to succeed? Personally, i hope so.

OP posts:
prettybird · 25/10/2016 17:05

I'm trying to be positive. So far it's all been very civilised. Smile

Peregrina · 25/10/2016 19:11

I am 100% sure Cameron is happy. He has cleared off to enjoy his money spend more time with his family. He can now pull his children out of state schools and send them to their preferred Independent school. Good timing too - I think Nancy is in year 8, just the right time to get it all sorted for year 9 entry.

Corcory · 25/10/2016 22:33

I independence lobby are focusing too much on their desire to stay in the EU and are not looking at the bigger picture of being away from the rUK as the voters will and the consequences of that for Scotland.

Corcory · 25/10/2016 22:34

Should read 'I think the independence lobby'!

Corcory · 27/10/2016 09:20

A report today in the Telegraph says that many surveyors in Scotland say that there is a big drop in demand for commercial premises since Brexit. Where as the demand has increased in the rUK. They state that the thread of a second indy vote is having a more detrimental impact on Scotland than Brexit itself.

smallfox2002 · 27/10/2016 12:13

The drop on demand for commercial property is country wide cocory, it's been reported quite widely.

Corcory · 27/10/2016 12:15

Not according to that report Small.

smallfox2002 · 27/10/2016 12:16

It's been widely reported in other places.

smallfox2002 · 27/10/2016 12:25

You've also missed out the bit of the article where it says the market has recovered in some places, but just to pre ref levels and that demand has fallen in London. So how is the Scottish indy ref damaging London?

Corcory · 27/10/2016 13:48

Scotland saw the sharpest drop in the UK and a drop in foreign investment.
Office property was down which as the main type of property in the city and the rUK (except Scotland) saw an increase in industrial property interest.

smallfox2002 · 27/10/2016 14:29

I'd put that down to the declines in the oil industry rather than the risk of Indy ref, especially as commercial property didn''t fall dramatically when there was an indy ref.

Correlation and precedent see.

Corcory · 27/10/2016 15:14

The RICS report is specifically for the third quarter of this year and looks at changes in comparison to previous quarters so they do not think it has anything to do with the down turn in the oil market which has taken affect some time ago.
Niall Burns of Burns and Shaw of Edinburgh said ' The threat of a second referendum is having a more detrimental effect on commercial property in Scotland than Brexit'. See.

smallfox2002 · 27/10/2016 15:18

Ah so you'll believe an expert when he confirms your bias but never before then?

Seriously Cocory, the brexit results won't be the factor here, if it were there would have been downturns during the indy ref, which there weren't.

The fact is that as a large recipient of EU money Scotland could be very negatively effected by brexit.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 27/10/2016 15:36

The fact is that as a large recipient of EU money Scotland could be very negatively effected by brexit.

This^ I suspect it is more to do with the fact that a hard Brexit would be disastrous for Scotland, and that Westminster is steamrolling Scotland and cutting them out of planning and negotiations. Of course people are going to be sitting right and waiting to see what happens.

It is also interesting that there is also a downturn in London, another remain area, I would suspect for the same reasons.

LurkingHusband · 27/10/2016 15:43

Westminster is steamrolling Scotland and cutting them out of planning and negotiations

I demand you take that back Angry !. It is a lie, and a calumny. Theresa May was very clear that Scotland would have a hotline in Brexit talks, and she would hardly lie, would she ?

Oh, hang on ...

www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-reveals-36-hour-wait-on-brexit-hotline-1-4270842

Maybe you were right after all Blush

As you were.

Peregrina · 27/10/2016 16:23

This doesn't look good, does it. May can meet the Nissan boss to offer him bribes, but can't be bothered with the devolved Governments.

LurkingHusband · 27/10/2016 16:27

This doesn't look good, does it. May can meet the Nissan boss to offer him bribes, but can't be bothered with the devolved Governments

I think it looks like exactly what it is. A two fingers for Scotland (yet again).

Unless anyone else can interpret it differently ?

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 27/10/2016 16:54

Interestingly I read somewhere that if May has told Nissan that the UK will compensate them for any Brexit related losses, this may well be against WTO rules...

LurkingHusband · 27/10/2016 16:58

Interestingly I read somewhere that if May has told Nissan that the UK will compensate them for any Brexit related losses, this may well be against WTO rules...

It's state aid. The same state aid we were unable to give the steel industry.

Corcory · 27/10/2016 17:53

TM meet NS this week Peregrina!

The government is said to have 'reassured' Nissan nothing about compensation.

Peregrina · 27/10/2016 18:53

I know that TM met the heads of devolved Governments this week, Corcory. I also recall that NS described the meeting as frustrating, and has since talked about it taking 36 hours to get through on the supposed 'hotline' to David Davis. None of that gives me the impression that TM cares all that much about Scotland.

prettybird · 27/10/2016 19:14

It's only a "source" but if true, it would suggest a commitment consisting of more than just "reassurance".

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN12R1AK

"In addition to unconditional investment aid, Britain pledged in a letter to offer further relief if the terms of Britain's European Union exit ended up harming the plant's performance, the source said."

BecauseIamaBear · 04/11/2016 07:44

Reading this thread, there is one aspect that hasn't been debated. That is the effect of an independent Scotland on the referendum itself.

There are many who are not happy sith the result and point
argue out the margin was not large enough. However, if the Scottish block is ignored, which would be the case if Scotland was not part of the UK, the Exit margin becomes much greater.

Would that England and Wales had the chance to vote on keeping Scotland?

prettybird · 04/11/2016 08:57

If you took out the Scottish vote, it changes the result by 1% - would have been 53% to 47%.

I think that would still have been close enough to ensure continued debate.

Can you imagine the outcry though if the English and Welsh Remain vote had been just over 1% higher (so still a majority for Leave) but that Scottish vote had meant that Remain won by just over 50% Shock

AyeYaDancer · 04/11/2016 12:04

I read Bears post to be pondering the balance of the HoC without SNP MPs, and the effect on a parliamentary vote on A50.

Timing doesn't work of course but Sturgeon must be considering her options now