Scottish Independence

[wibblewobble8]

Now that it seems inevitable that there will be a second Scottish Independence Ref (re the news today) do you think Brexit will have an impact upon the result making it more likely to succeed? Personally, i hope so.

Wonder what her position will be if for whatever reason the UK does not exit the EU? Will she still go for IR2?

Will she still go for IR2?
No exit of the EU might mean that she has bought herself more time. So IR2 in a few years hence, rather than the next couple of years?

I expect her future hangs on what happens, in that event, in rUK. I'm part of the diaspora but I get the feeling from friends there that she is not that well liked nor her govt.

She's said that she didn't want a referendum until the polls were consistently showing 60% as she very definitely doesn't want to lose the next one.

So I don't think it's her choice of ideal timing and it's not something she sought out. But having put this specific scenario into the manifesto for the Scottish Parliament elections, she feels bound to follow through strange concept I know .

I don't think even the SNP thought that England UK would vote Leave - although the possibility of the schadenfreude result of an extremely narrow leave vote in England being "turned" by a strong Scottish Remain vote never the other way around was discussed amongst the chattering classes.

But unlike the apparent disarray at Westminster following the referendum, at least in Scotland the SNP had prepared for different scenarios.

She's said that she didn't want a referendum until the polls were consistently showing 60% as she very definitely doesn't want to lose the next one.

Well going by the current polls she has a long time to wait then.

Ayeyadancer - so that's why the SNP increased their share of constituency votes in the last election (they lost the overall majority - rightly - because they didn't have more than 50% of the vote - in 2011 they "broke" the d'Hondt system whereas this time it worked as it should) and NS' personal vote in the Glasgow Southside constituency increased by over 7%?

Piglet - that's exact why I'm saying that the timing of an Indyref2 is sooner than she would've wanted.

Having said that, Salmond started from a much lower base (27%? - can't remember) and got it to 45% - with a panicked response from the UK government and "The Vow" when one poll suggested that Yes might actually win.

Personally I think that if DevoMax (or Full Fiscal Autonomy) had been on the ballot paper, it could have killed the impetus towards independence. Not sure who resisted it: Salmond because of the risk that Scots might see it as sufficient and no longer have the same support for independence or Cameron because FFA might have proven once and for all that Scotland could stand on her own two feet and wasn't being subsidised.

I think change will happen in the U.K. as a whole, that some good will come of all of this. I think we will see a lot of the Leave sentiment evaporate for all sorts of reasons helped hopefully by a pledge to redistribute wealth via investment throughout the U.K. It's out there now, the acknowledgement of inequality and discontent. WM cannot trumpet how great a nation we are, how we can conquer the world, without providing the wherewithall. And if they can get it into their heads to treat Scotland Wales Northern Ireland as equal partners then maybe we will all rub along nicely.

Pretty. I think we see the same reasons for the SNP swell as we see in the Leave vote. A protest, a vote for change. But I'm not there. My highland friends are as disparaging of SNP as they are of WM.

The biggest buyer of exported goods is England, a market which would not be sustained at the same level after an acrimonious split from the union.

Its difficult to say exactly what the economic position is because the Scottish economy is currently intertwined with the rest of the UK. In terms of value it looks as though the rest of the UK exports more to Scotland than Scotland does to the rest of the UK. That means it would be in both countries interests to reach a deal & stabilise both economies.

Many of the large multi-nationals made ready to relocate out of Scotland during last Indyref, and significant amounts of contracts were put on hold and money moved out.

Many didn't & others remained neutral. Some, in particular Ryanair, said they would expand. In any event Brexit changes the position. Chief Brexit negotiator for the EU Parl says because Scotland is already in the EU there is no reason why an independent Scotland couldn't automatically rejoin. Some companies would now consider relocating to Scotland to retain access to the single market. One of the City's top lobbyists whose clients include BlackRock, Rio Tinto & Barclays was in talks with the SNP just days after the referendum.

"And if they can get it into their heads to treat Scotland Wales Northern Ireland as equal partners then maybe we will all rub along nicely."

On that we can agree. The only difference is that I think WM had its chance and blew it.

Unless and until England has its own Parliament - ie a true federal structure - then England will always be able to overrule what the other countries want. And EVEL wasn't the solution - it just exacerbated the problem.

How could you now ever have a Scottish or Welsh PM if they can't vote on significant proportions of the legislation passing through WM?

STIDW - remember the import/export figures don't include oil and gas of which the rest of the UK takes half of the total production.

Dementedma is correct - during the last referendum, numerous companies were making plans to move from Scotland to England in the result of their being a yes vote. Unfortunately, those plans have not been dropped, despite brexit. I can't out myself either but it has come to the fore again since Thursday

The initial union only happened because Scotland was bankrupt. It may have the theoretical ability to survive as an independent nation, but its economy is so entwined with the UK as to make any unravelling painful. In a single economy, expertise locates in one area, so Scotland has oil, for example, but finance is in London (except for RBS which would move), Currrently Scotland is suffering from a weak oil price, so the timing is very bad. If Scotland spent the 10-15 years building a more balanced economy, then independence may be economically doable.

Well it might take that amount of time for Uk to extract itself from EU so time is on Scotland's side.

The initial union only happened because Scotland was bankrupt

England had actually contributed to the poor state of Scotland's finances, and had been trying to get Scotland under control for a while.

It happened at that point because the UK needed manpower (they had a demographic crisis) and taxes for an expensive war - of Spanish Succession. And because they were afraid that the Jacobites, backed by Louis 14th, could join the war and fight over succession in Britain.

James 1 had wanted to unite parliaments along with the Crowns in 1603, but the English parliament was strongly anti-Scots at that point and refused.

I think independence at this point stands and falls on the hardness of Brexit.

In a hard Brexit, Scotland will have to save itself - it needs the single market and customs union as much as we do.

If that happens then I think many non-indy inclined Scots would vote for it purely for pragmatic reasons - self-preservation.

It's a bugger oil prices are low right now, but they won't stay low forever.

If Scotland were to stay, it and Ireland could do extremely well out of relocating banks/businesses/industry.

I don't buy the argument that Spain etc would veto Scottish independence for fear of separatism. They might, but the history of Scotland as a separate country is completely different from Catalonia or the Veneto for example, and I don't think they're comparable. And anyway, Spain & Italy aren't trying to leave the EU.

But Manon I don't understand the argument that Scotland needs the single market so much more than it need the market of the rest of the UK which is 4 times the size of the EU market. Not including gas and oil of which half of all Scotland's production goes to the rest of the UK.
If Scotland were independent and was then able to be part of the EU it would be entirely reliant on how good the free trade deal the EU made with the UK but without any say in it!
I for one certainly wouldn't be voting for independence for any pragmatic reason. I can't think of any Scot who would.

Would the Scots really vote to be part of this right wing ideology ? I don't think they would. Would you?

Plenty of labour voters voted to leave RBeer. Many people in Scotland have connections with England/relations etc. we are not quite as parochial as it may seem. Independence/alliance with the UK has a lot to do with patriotism and can be very much a heart thing so I would think voting for pragmatic reasons or against some 'right wing ideology' is a lot less likely.

Considering the SNP do not have a majority at present, could they even call a referendum? I thought all the other parties were against?

I don't know how many would vote in favour of a sinking ship. And wouldn't the Labour voters have a chance to have a dig again against the Tories. My money would be on 'leave' .

And wouldn't the Labour voters have a chance to have a dig again against the Tories.

No not necessarily.

It isn't that simple.

Caroldecker - that's where you show your ignorance of Scottish politics. The Scottish Greens are also pro-independence, and between the SNP MSPs and the 6 Green MSPs, there is a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament.

That's before you even count any Labour MSPs who might be having doubts about the Unionist approach (and that includes Kezia Dugdale although when push comes to shout I thinks she's follow the Westminster Labour line).

Patrick Harvie has already said he'd support a 2nd Referendum without preconditions and said the Westminster would be foolish to try to block it.

Having a dig at the Tories has little or nothing to do with an indy vote though. Labour have had a massive hit in Scotland and the Tories did quite well in the last Scottish elections anyway.