Scottish Independence

[wibblewobble8]

Now that it seems inevitable that there will be a second Scottish Independence Ref (re the news today) do you think Brexit will have an impact upon the result making it more likely to succeed? Personally, i hope so.

I think Scotland would be universally fucked if independence had gone ahead in 2014. The fairytale finances put forward by the snp, on the back of the oil price would have universally screwed the country.
I don't agree with BREXIT but I equally disagree with the proposal for another divisive referendum vote. Scotland is being harmed by both the uncertainty of BREXIT and independence. The snp would do well to focus on the hear and now, like the masses unemployed as a result of the oil price crash,and building our country encouraging growth and development. Abolishing the council tax freeze, and using their existing powers to improve Scotland for all.

So pleased I'm not the only one! Not all Scots suffer from the 'poor little me' mentality ingrained in the SNP. Why not scrap referenda altogether so we never get a say again if no-one can be bothered to accept a result.

...or maybe go for 'best of 3'?

Another Scottish referendum isn't inevitable. By preparing legislation & putting it out for consultation the option to hold indyref2 before the UK leaves the EU is open. IF Scotland voted for independence there is a legal argument it could stay in the EU by treaty amendment rather than applying to rejoin.

Brexit could possibly have an impact upon the result of a second Scottish referendum. Scottish voters want to remain in the EU. During the 2014 Scottish referendum they were told by the Better Together campaign a vote for independence would endanger Scotland's EU membership. Therefore Brexit changes the basis upon which some people voted & some of them are quite peeved. That coupled with the fall in annuity rates & the £ could mean enough No voters change their mind. Because the value of the £ is less it looks as though the cost of food will increase in time for Christmas & the price of petrol is rising.

I don't pretend to understand the ins and outs of devolution but Independece always looked like a really bad idea for Scotland to me.

I get the majority want to stay in the EU but leaving rUK doesn't get Scotland into the EU and with sterling on its arse what is the logic behind another Independece vote?

RedToothBrush had it when she said scotlands voting choice would be to be out EU while part of the UK, or out EU on their own. I dunno Bear, it's one of those visceral things that don't stand up to scrutiny or follow any laws of physics. As part of the Scottish diaspora I have the luxury of contemplating an independent Scotland.
I can see NS point, it's her party's raison d'être and it's just inconvenient that she's first minister and has to consider stuff like economic viability.

I don't agree with Scottish independence, but it's hard to argue the case against another referendum. Brexit will fundamentally change Scotland's relationship with the rUK and with Europe, in a way that the Scottish people did not vote for.

If self-determination and control are important, and if a referendum is the right way to make decisions on such issues, then I am unsure how brexiters can deny the Scottish people a say about this.

(Personally I don't believe in decision-making by referendum but a precedent has been set ...)

Misti...so now it's Brexiters fault?

No what would happen if the Scots voted for Independence by 52% to 48%? Would this be taken as an overwhelming mandate? Just musing really.

I'm so torn on this.

I have Scottish family links but not close enough to be affected by this enough to feel directly affected if that makes sense.

However I feel that the terms that the Scottish Referendum, which was a close vote, have altered significantly. I strongly feel that the Scottish people deserve a chance to re-vote.

But then so many people, on both sides, do not want to go through this again.

I know I would feel wholly different if the first vote had been significantly (I mean that in a pure statistical way) different.

All I do know is if they do it, they learn that they need a certain percentage or a certain voter turnout etc. to declare it valid.

I understand the wish to self govern, I understand the animosity for WM, these are emotional. But in my rational mind I wonder why all the emotion can't be taken out of it and a decision taken that suits all...rather than treating it as an acrimonious divorce look at it like two people who are considering setting up a business together. You know, look at what each has to offer, work out a share agreement, decide on duties and responsibilities of each party and so on. I know zilch about constitutional matters but it seems there would be so much more strength in a federal ( if that's the right term?) arrangement, with Scotland England n Ireland and wales all having jurisdiction over their own lands, but we all still identified as UK. If (?) we leave the UK, each country could either benefit from U.K. trade arrangements around but also be free to strike deals of their own, specific to them.

Yes, AyeYa. It would be so much better if we took that stance. I think UK politics as a whole would be better if we took a more consensual tone. It would not preclude strong debates, but would take away all this 'ya boo' tone that we see in Westminster.

Nicola Sturgeon is certainly making the most of the Brexit fallout to push for independence but seriously, how will Scotland survive as an independent nation?

The EU won't let them in as an indepenant nation will they?

I'm still not sure whether the EU would let Scotland in straight away (or let it stay as a current member while England leaves which is another possibility) but even if it doesn't, Scotland could join EFTA (it's a better fit than the full UK to the current members) and remain in the free trade area as it accepts the principle of the four freedoms (unlike the Brexiteers).

In terms of whether it would survive economically, if a country with the resources that Scotland has (tourism, water, food, software, call centres, forestry, whisky and gin, fishing, renewables, biotech, financial services) can't survive independently, then doesn't that say more about what the Union has done for us?

Note, I didn't include oil and gas in that list: it is the bonus, not the raison d'être of the economic case. Yes, it's galling that oil was discovered in Scottish waters and Scotland ended up poorer . Look at the decline in the Scottish population in the 70s . It's frustrating that no Sovereign Wealth Fund was set up (unlike Norway) which could help both prepare for the future, when the oil runs out and help smooth out the challenges faced by the industry caused by fluctuations in the price of oil (which ironically, at the moment will be worth more as it's priced in dollars). But that's history.

Yes, Scotland had a deficit last year. You don't judge a country on a single year. Otherwise the UK would have been judged incapable of independence following the financial crisis in 2008.

What is the average deficit over the last 5 years? 10 years? How much of that deficit is servicing the "UK" debt? If Scotland has to continue paying that interest, what share of the assets will she also be due? The Bank of England, despite its name, also "belongs" to Scotland.

The deficit also assumes the same spending decisions as Westminster - including things like Trident which an independent Scotland might not choose to pay for.

Why can Denmark and Finland (similar sizes) survive on their own?

I'm not saying that the initial adjustment period wouldn't be tough - especially if England is difficult about the process, but I would argue that it may be less tough than the adjustment period that FUKD is going to have to go through if it exits both the EU and Single Market.

I fully understand why people would say that they prefer to be part of the UK and that they're proud to be British (OK, at the moment I'm having difficult with that one - but I respect people's right to be proud of it even if at the moment I despair about where the UK is going) as well as, or instead of, Scottish.

I don't accept the "too wee, too poor" argument.

Totally agree Pretty that there is a positive economic case for an independent Scotland.
But political?
Where does that one start? And end?
Especially now.
And I don't know about you but I think if Scotland got independence NS and her crew would be in possession of their P45s before they could say jingsandhelpmaboab,
and someone less one dimensional would take charge. Like Ruth Davidson.

Aye I agree, a lot of people are supporting the SNP as a means to an end. Once Scotland gets independence there will be a much broader spectrum of views /parties/MSPs creating Scotland.

I don't think Ruth would get the gig - I think that's deluded wishful thinking on her part - but if she did, well that's democracy.

At least you have recognised - as many don't - that a vote for Independence is not a vote for the SNP.

If/when Scotland achieves its independence, the political parties would be free to realign/recreate themselves. I look forward to a real revatilised Labour Party. The SNP may well fracture - but I think the rump would still be left leaning. And who knows, the Conservatives may find some of their "One Nation" paternalism/altruism that they seem to have lost in their pursuit of greed profit austerity trickle down economics.

I disagree Scotland has a strong economic case. A higher GDP defecit than any other European country, including Greece. The biggest buyer of exported goods is England, a market which would not be sustained at the same level after an acrimonious split from the union. Many of the large multi-nationals made ready to relocate out of Scotland during last Indyref, and significant amounts of contracts were put on hold and money moved out. And yes, this is fact. Don't want to out myself but because of the job I do, I know this. It is NOT here say. The business community is still recovering from Indyref 1 and does not want another one, nor does it want an independent Scotland. When the first minister chooses to ignore this and openly state " Independence is more important than the economy" then we are in dangerous territory.

That was maybe a bit daft wrong sighted of me to suggest RD, because I was basing my choice on who is available in the current set up. But in an independent nation all the parties will reshape, and all association with their WM representatives will go.

And who would England buy from instead Ma, given that they'll have fallen out with all their other neighbours.

The problem is, it's really hard to figure out Scottish economics as at the moment they are pretty indivisible from UK economics as Westminster runs the Scottish economy as part of the UK.

I think Scotland would be OK, it has massive natural resources, in demand industries and a small and well educated population.

The EU won't let them in as an indepenant nation will they?

Scotland is already part of the EU & Guy Verhofstadt, chief Brexit negotiator for the EU Parliament, has said there is no reason why Scotland couldn't automatically rejoin. Also there is a legal argument that Scotland could remain in the EU by treaty amendment if it became independent before the UK leaves the EU.

Many of the large multi-nationals made ready to relocate out of Scotland during last Indyref,

This was when the UK was expected to remain within the EU. I assume that being outside, especially if being outside the customs union was the likely outcome, then that would be a factor which could alter the decision.

Scotland might also see an influx of population from England and Wales citizens who want to remain in the EU. IMO the country has a lot going for it.

Scotland exports 4 times more to the rest of the UK as it does to the EU. I'd love to know why others might think it a good idea that Scotland stay in the EU but out of the UK for any reasons other than the usual remain reasons there might be for Scotland.
Would there be a hard border with England? What would happen to duty etc. on Scotland's oil and gas, half of which goes to the rest of the UK?
How would Scotland get it's goods to the EU? would they start expensive air, ferries, or other shipping rather than drive through England?

corcory this is unchartered territory, we agree!

I can't help thinking NS is only doing this to achieve her party's ultimate goal, not because it's actually this right thing for Scotland at this time.