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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris and co learn the basics - and limits - of British sovereignty and democracy.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2016 16:42

There is a plan.

It is not a very good one, but May says she has a plan.

As May declared a revolution and set out her vision for a Britain ‘open’ for free trade and hard working people she managed to further drive in the wedge of division into a society which needed measured and sensitive handling.

Her speech was met, with much derision and horror both here and abroad. Even UKIP voices say the Conservatives went too far.

Brexit began to take shape. It appeared hard and fast. Without the consent of parliament. It was to be run by the executive alone. As the ex-Polish Foreign Minister points out, the shape of it decided because it was viewed as the ‘easiest’ option. Not the one in the best interests of the country. Leaving the EU has become indistinguishable to the Single Market. We are told by Mr Davis that there is no down side to this.

Then something else began to happen and the plan is beginning to not look so clever…

The pound plunged.

Mr Hammond, who has seemed to have resisted the urge to take the hallucinatory drugs being handed out in vast quantities around the Cabinet Table, came out saying that we must consider the economic reality of Brexit.

It was followed by a leaked paper that put the cost of Hard Brexit at between £38bn and £66bn a year. Our EU membership cost £8bn last year. Where are those NHS buses now?

The government response? Oh that was George. He just made it up for ‘Project Fear’. Or something to that effect.

The government on the one hand were saying how great Brexit will be, yet were not prepared to make the case in parliament. The Times editorial came out as categorically for the Single Market. Even the Sun on Sunday editorial spoke up for the Single Market (though was still in the land of cake wanting immigration control too).

David Davis took to the Commons to answer questions and was met with a chorus of rising alarm. Whilst he confirmed that the majority of EU citizens here do have their right to remain here as being their legal entitlement, it does not guarantee their rights under this. He echoed the language of the citizen of nowhere in May’s speech and, perhaps can be seen to make, the stark message that you should consider taking on British Citizenship.

Parliament has started to wake up to what is at stake. It is not just whether we stay in the EU or not, but Brexit presents a challenge to democratic processes and threatens to bypass the checks and balances to power that parliament is supposed to provide. It is a threat to our international reputation as a champion of liberal values and democratic stature. It is a threat to our economic security. It is a threat to our diplomatic relations, with the reckless comments and language coming from some. .

The stirrings of rebellion and a credible opposition come from a variety of quarters. From both leavers and remainers alike. From every party including the governments. Initially the government refused to give, so Labour announced an opposition debate on transparency of Brexit and it all started to fall apart. Faced with a vote they could not get enough support to win they made an apparent U-Turn and agreed to parliamentary scrutiny of the government’s position ahead of a50 within certain limits.

Keir Starmer, making the point that Human Rights Lawyers are not to be messed with, has written 170 questions, one for every day before the end of March when a50 is due to be triggered, for Davis to respond to.

However, the agreement to this debate on negotiations is none binding and there is no date for it as yet. The government must not be allowed to pay lip service to rebels. They must be held to this reversal.

Today’s opposition debate seems to suggest that the government definition of scrutiny is wheeling out David Davies and get him to waffle a lot and not say anything. This has gone down like a lead balloon. The government can not maintain this. Something will give. He has still refused to release a green or white paper which many expected.

May’s choice will be blunt. She either keeps pretending Santa is real and can deliver the pony whilst losing the house in the process or she owns up to the looming cold hard truth of reality.

May might be fully committed to taking us off the cliff top no matter what but she’s going to have to fight to get there.

In the best interests of the country the pressure must be kept up. There must be resistance to the ‘Little England’ mentality and orders by the Mail and the Express to silence those unpatriotic ‘agents of Brussels’ who are raising legitimate concerns that need to be considered as part of the process.

Its either this or we will have to rely on the proposed new Royal Yacht to send Kate off round the world begging for trade deals “to once again project the prestige of this nation across the globe” as Mr Gove says. Prestige we still had before the referendum was announced.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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TheMagicFarawaySleep · 20/10/2016 14:17

I have been lurking on this thread since it started. I don't have anything to contribute because I'm ignorant as to all the ins and outs of the political system. Perhaps, BoredofBrexit, you may want to consider taking the same stance.

Red - I am thoroughly enjoying and appreciating your thread, as is my husband. Please keep going, because there is nowhere else condensing the information, in an understandable manner. You are very talented and this thread is so appreciated, and by many other lurkers, I suspect.

BoredofBrexit · 20/10/2016 14:19

Cecile, of course not. It is rather paradoxical though that those who wish to remain in A political union say in one hand that they don't know what the plan is and on the other claim to know that the aim is for impossible, destructive things. What has been expressed is a majority view that the UK should discontinue its membership of the EU. That is the starting point. It is a statement of intent. The end point can only be arrived at after long negotiations with the EU, and at this stage no more is known of the path that will be taken save for the intention to remove the UK from EU membership in such a way that causes the least harm to all parties involved.

Motheroffourdragons · 20/10/2016 14:22

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

BoredofBrexit · 20/10/2016 14:22

'As does my husband'Grin

TheMagicFarawaySleep · 20/10/2016 14:29

Bored - I was merely pointing out that the reach of this thread is further than those who post on it.

However, if that comment was enough to make you laugh, I would consider that to be quite juvenile. So again, I would seriously question whether you have anything adult and considered to bring to the thread. The evidence so for suggests not.

BoredofBrexit · 20/10/2016 14:33

Probably not, as I'm not a fully paid up member of the Red's Remainder Echo Chamber. The air must be getting a bit stale by now.

CeciledeVolanges · 20/10/2016 14:34

I disagree. For example, if 52% of the population voted to build a colony on the Moon within two years, and the government had no plan to achieve it, there would be no contradiction there.

BoredofBrexit · 20/10/2016 14:38

Your argument falls in the fact that it would be unlikely, even in the face of wide popular support of colonising the moon, for the government to offer a referendum on it (one would suppose, anyway) whereas the possibility of a life outside the EU must have been considered before offering up a binary choice. And the two years is misleading.

CeciledeVolanges · 20/10/2016 14:48

Misleading how? I would love to know.
And no, the assumption was that people would vote remain. It isn't an exaggeration to say there was no plan. There was just no plan. They offered an extremely stupid, unfeasible choice and a rational choice and assumed that people wouldn't vote to jump off the cliff.

missmoon · 20/10/2016 14:54

Interesting point Red about Theresa May saying that there will be no second referendum. I agree that there is a subtle change in mood. Perhaps MPs and others who have been keeping quiet sense that now is the the time to come out against hard Brexit. Sorry if this has been posted before, but this article in Conservative Home is very interesting, as are the comments below it: www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/10/garvan-walshe-the-government-is-making-the-same-five-strategic-mistakes-on-brexit-that-we-made-in-iraq.html

RedToothBrush · 20/10/2016 15:01

I have seen this doing the rounds.

Man to a cab driver: LEAVE
Cab Driver: Where to sir?
Man to a cab driver: LEAVE NOW!
Cab Driver: But where do you want to go sir?
Man to a cab driver: DID YOU NOT HEAR ME? I SAID LEAVE!
Cab Driver: Sir, if you don't tell me your destination, how are we supposed to get there
Man to a cab driver: STOP PESTERING ME WITH STUPID QUESTIONS AND JUST LEAVE!
Cab Driver: Bu---
Man to a cab driver: STOP TRYING TO OBSTRUCT ME. LEAVE!!!!
Cab Driver: Look Sir, I would very much like to help you, but I can't if you just keep shouting 'Leave' at me. Now if you don't want to share this information with me, I would be most grateful if can you get out of the cab
Man to a cab driver: IF YOU DON'T LEAVE RIGHT NOW, I'M GOING TO CALL ALL MY MATES TO SMASH UP YOUR CAB.
Cab Driver: Signals to a couple of policeman at the side of the road
Man to a cab driver as he is taken away by the police: I'LL KILL YOU AND YOU YOUR CORRUPT POLICE FRIENDS, ALL I WANTED TO DO WAS LEAVE

I appreciate this thread, does have a problem with an echo chamber. It is however, not deliberate, nor for lack of trying to bust out of. However I view it more as a 'running commentary' on developments whilst we try and establish where the government plan to go.

Moving on:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-foreign-students-immigration-data-brexit-philip-hammond-a7371631.html
Theresa May is considering a major shift in the way immigration numbers are recorded

Just as a bit of background to this, there were people who argued that in some areas locals had problems with student populations in university towns due to accommodation and this was reflected in voting patterns in the suburbs. It didn't really make the headline news (I only saw in Yorkshire Evening Post). Instead the national media focused on all the students who went 'missing' after course and the rogue college that was shut down after an investigation.

Amber Rudd had previously privately encouraged May to drop this as being included in national figures after it emerged that previous estimates that 'tens of thousands' of students were disappearing was wrong and a new Home Office report suggested the figure was much more like a maximum of 1500 (Front page of the Telegraph a couple of weeks ago) but was over ruled by May.

So one way or another, this looks like a potential climb down by May - the issue that seemed to be potentially a legitimate concern in student housing - is being ignored, because it can be as the national media never really took the issue on, and the future of educational institutes would be threatened by doing so.

This is one way to get down to that magic ten's of thousands figure. Just move the goal posts.

When committee chair Andrew Tyrie cited research showing only a fifth of people think students count as immigrants and that 59 per cent are opposed to efforts to reduce their number, Mr Hammond said: "I think that’s very interesting information."

OP posts:
BoredofBrexit · 20/10/2016 15:05

Cecile...just meant there is not just two years to get it all done, it's a set period of 2 years from when notice is served(and although the indication is March, events may cause that to be put back, who can tell) The two years can be extended by agreement. And as you are aware there is ongoing discussion of reversibility. Perhaps the Govt was flawed by offering the referendum in the terms that it did but that is no reason for the venting of spleen against those that offered a choice, exercised their rights and made one. Shooting the messenger.

BoredofBrexit · 20/10/2016 15:08

Miss Moon and Red re TM no second ref. I would read that as countering the comment made by Tusk about the UK perhaps not exiting?

LurkingHusband · 20/10/2016 15:16

It's also worth noting there are more subtle tensions in EU countries which might affect Scotland-UK developments.

Italy, for example, which has an almost mirror problem to the UK where the rich North is increasingly disgruntled with having to subsidise the poorer south. Quite aside from any Sicilian rumblings of independence (those who know their Euro history will know there was a serious suggestion after WW2 for Sicily to become part of the US).

maizieD · 20/10/2016 15:22

Another lurker here to say thank you.

I do so appreciate the thorough and intelligent coverage of the mess we're now in.

CeciledeVolanges · 20/10/2016 15:22

Who is venting their spleen against whom, here?
And if there is unanimous agreement to extend the negotiations I will eat my real hat. I swear. They want us out as quickly as possible or not at all.

RedToothBrush · 20/10/2016 15:29

Donald Tusk ‏@eucopresident
CETA could be our last free trade agreement, if we are not able to convince people that we negotiate to protect their interests

Law and policy ‏@Lawandpolicy
Not good news then for a UK-EU trade deal, if the Canada-EU CETA deal collapses.

House of Lords, European Union Committee, 4th Report of Session 2016-17
Key Findings:
It would be in the interests of Government, Parliament and the public for Parliament to vote on the Government's Brexit negotiation guidelines before Article 50 is triggered.

Too much is at stake – including many key aspects of domestic policy – for Ministers and officials to be allowed to take decisions behind closed doors, without parliamentary and democratic scrutiny.

Allowing Parliament to provide timely and constructive commentary throughout the negotiations would increase the likelihood of Parliament and the public accepting the final deal.

Chapter 2 Parliamentary scrutiny of Brexit
Conclusion
16. The forthcoming negotiations on Brexit will be unprecedented in their complexity and their impact upon domestic policy. The direction of many key areas of policy, affecting core national interests, will be heavily influenced, if not determined, by the outcome of the negotiations. While the Government has an obligation, following the referendum, to deliver Brexit, it seems to us inconceivable that it should take the many far-reaching policy decisions that will arise in the course of Brexit without active parliamentary scrutiny.

17. We agree with the Government, and all our witnesses, that Parliament should not seek to micromanage the negotiations. The Government will conduct the negotiations on behalf of the United Kingdom, and, like any negotiator, it will need room to manoeuvre if it is to secure a good outcome.

18. At the same time, we do not regard the principle of accountability after the fact, however important in itself, as a sufficient basis for parliamentary scrutiny of the Brexit negotiations. Instead, we call on the Government to recognise a middle ground between the extremes of micromanagement and mere accountability after the fact.

19. Within this middle ground, Parliament, while respecting the Government’s need to retain room for manoeuvre, should be able both to monitor the Government’s conduct of the negotiations, and to comment on the substance of the Government’s negotiating objectives as they develop. Only if these principles are accepted will Parliament be able to play a constructive part in helping the Government to secure the best outcome for the United Kingdom. Such scrutiny will also contribute to a greater sense of parliamentary ownership of the process, strengthening the Government’s negotiating position and increasing the likelihood that the final agreement will enjoy parliamentary and public support.

Chapter 4 Phase 1 - preparation
Conclusion
33. Across Whitehall, the Government is engaging with stakeholders, and analysing their views, with a view to drawing up guidelines for the forthcoming negotiations. We understand that during this period of intense activity the flow of information from Government to Parliament will be limited.

34. Parliament can, nevertheless, make a significant contribution to the development of the Government’s thinking, using conventional means such as debates and Select Committee inquiries. We are ourselves seeking to contribute to the process by undertaking a coordinated series of inquiries addressing many of the key issues that will arise in the course of Brexit.

35. The Government has not yet indicated how it will publish its negotiating guidelines, whether they will be debated in Parliament, or whether they will be subject to formal approval by one or both Houses. Given the requirement that Parliament should approve and ultimately implement any agreement that emerges from the negotiations, we believe it would be in the Government’s and the nation’s interest for both Houses to be given an opportunity to debate and approve the negotiating guidelines, at least in outline.

36. We note the recent report of the Constitution Committee on the role of Parliament in issuing a notification under Article 50 TEU, and await the decision of the courts on the application brought by Gina Miller and Dier Tozetti Dos Santos.

Chapter 5 Phase 2 - Formal Negotiations
58. The current level of scrutiny of trade and other international negotiations by the European Parliament, as set out in the 2010 Framework Agreement between the European Parliament and the European Commission, provides a baseline against which any arrangements agreed in the United Kingdom Parliament must be measured: it would be unacceptable for the European Parliament to have greater rights of scrutiny over the negotiations on Brexit than Westminster. We are therefore grateful for the Secretary of State’s assurance that the level of scrutiny in Westminster will at least match that in Brussels.

59. The key principles underpinning European Parliament scrutiny of trade and other international negotiations are that:
• The European Parliament, through a designated Committee, has access to all relevant documents, including draft negotiating directives, draft amendments to those directives, draft negotiating texts, agreed articles, and draft agreements;
• Those documents are supplied to the Parliament in sufficient time for it to be able to express its view, and if necessary to publish formal recommendations, and for the Commission (which conducts the negotiation) to be able to take these views and recommendations into account;
• The Commission is under a duty to respond to such recommendations, and in particular, if recommendations are rejected, to explain why;
• Both the Commission and the Parliament are under a duty to adopt procedures to safeguard confidential information.

60. The same general principles should be applied to scrutiny by the Westminster Parliament of the forthcoming negotiations on Brexit. Too much is at stake for scrutiny to be limited to establishing accountability after the event. While it is not for Parliament to manage the negotiations themselves, Parliament must be able to monitor them actively, and to make its views known in timely fashion, potentially against the backdrop of fast-moving negotiations, so that the Government can consider these views and decide whether not to act on them.

61. We have considered whether these principles should be embodied in a formal scrutiny reserve resolution. On balance, however, we are persuaded that a formal and prescriptive scrutiny reserve could restrict the Government’s room for manoeuvre, thereby acting against the national interest. We are also conscious that scrutiny of treaty negotiations will be a new departure for the UK Parliament: it will take time for mutual trust to develop and for optimum working practices to be identified. We therefore do not recommend the adoption of a formal scrutiny reserve at this stage.

62. Instead, we invite the Government to undertake that the principles outlined in paragraph 59 should be applied to its relations with Parliament during the forthcoming negotiations. It is essential that the Government should work with the two Houses to give effect to these principles, if there is to be parity between the Parliaments in Westminster and Brussels in scrutinising Brexit

Chapter 6 Phase 3 - ratification
Conclusion
67. Any treaties arising out of the Brexit negotiations will engage the provisions of Part 2 of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010. Thus the two Houses will have an opportunity to pass resolutions that the treaties should not be ratified.

68. We would expect the Government, as well as laying the treaties before Parliament, to publish comprehensive explanatory material to inform public and parliamentary debate. It would be in the Government’s interest, should time allow, to give Select Committees scrutinising Brexit in both Houses an opportunity to set out their views before any debates and votes take place.

69. If, after two years of formal negotiations under Article 50 TEU, no agreement is reached either on the arrangements for withdrawal or on extending the deadline for negotiations, the UK will simply cease to be a member of the EU. Such an outcome cannot be ruled out, but would be highly damaging both to the UK and the EU.

Chapter 7 Phase 4 - Implementation
Conclusion
79. The ‘Great Repeal Bill’ announced by the Prime Minister on 2 October 2016 would formalise the UK’s withdrawal from the EU in domestic law, by repealing the European Communities Act 1972, with effect from whatever date is specified in the withdrawal agreement. We support the Government’s aim of maintaining the body of existing EU law in force, pending further review, but note that giving effect to this aim may be more complex than the Government has yet acknowledged.

80. The Government has yet to set out its strategy for conducting a full review of EU law post-withdrawal. While we welcome the Prime Minister’s commitment to full parliamentary scrutiny, we note that the legislation resulting from the review will have a profound impact upon Parliament, potentially dominating the domestic legislative agenda for an extended period. We therefore recommend that the Government publish an outline strategy for the post-withdrawal review of EU law as soon as possible, in order to inform consideration by the two Houses of how to deliver an appropriate and manageable level of parliamentary scrutiny.

81. Negotiations on trade agreements, with the EU and with third countries, may continue for several years post-withdrawal. Like the negotiations on withdrawal, these will reach deeply into domestic policy-making, and the same considerations in relation to parliamentary scrutiny apply.

Chapter 8 Parliamentary Diplomacy
Conclusion
89. Parliament should play an active diplomatic role throughout the Brexit process, and beyond. Dialogue with the European Parliament, and with other national parliaments, will be important in maintaining cordial relations during what will be, at the intergovernmental level, difficult negotiations.

90. The European Union Committee is already tasked with representing the House in interparliamentary relations within the EU, and will accordingly seek in coming weeks to begin a dialogue with the European Parliament, and to agree arrangements for formalising such a dialogue for the duration of the negotiations.

Chapter 9 Internal arrangements
Conclusion
96. Parliamentary scrutiny of Brexit should, we believe, continue to be inclusive and broadly defined. Debates, statements, and questions will all play an important part, and committees will continue to look at issues affecting their particular remits.

97. At the same time, we are conscious of the risk that uncoordinated scrutiny across both Houses could place an excessive burden upon the Department for Exiting the European Union. We therefore consider that, if Government is to be scrutinised effectively and efficiently, both Houses should confer explicit responsibility for such scrutiny upon a designated Select Committee.

98. We understand that the House of Commons is to appoint a dedicated Select Committee to scrutinise the new Department. While close liaison between the two Houses will be vital in scrutinising the negotiations, we reiterate the recommendation in our July 2016 report, that the House of Lords can best contribute to effective parliamentary oversight of the negotiations by also charging a specific Select Committee with explicit responsibility for scrutinising the negotiations, and for publishing reports so as to inform debate in the wider House.

104. We recommend that the new Committee appointed to scrutinise Brexit should incorporate the existing scrutiny functions of the European Union Committee.

105. We propose the following terms of reference for the new Committee, for consideration by domestic committees of the House:
“(1) To consider the negotiation and conclusion of any agreements between the United Kingdom and the European Union relating to the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from, and establishment of a new relationship with, the European Union;
(2) To represent the House as appropriate in interparliamentary cooperation within the European Union, and in particular to develop on behalf of the House an active interparliamentary dialogue relating to the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from and establishment of a new relationship with the European Union;
(3) To consider, for as long as the United Kingdom remains part of the European Union, any European Union documents deposited in the House by a Minister, and other matters relating to the European Union; The expression ‘European Union document’ includes in particular: (a) a document submitted by an institution of the European Union to another institution and put by either into the public domain; (b) a draft legislative act or a proposal for amendment of such an act; and (c) a draft decision relating to the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union under Title V of the Treaty on European Union; The Committee may waive the requirement to deposit a document, or class of documents, by agreement with the European Scrutiny Committee of the House of Commons;
(4) To assist the House, for as long as the United Kingdom remains part of the European Union, in relation to the procedure for the submission of Reasoned Opinions under Article 5 of the Treaty on European Union and the Protocol on the application of the principles of subsidiarity and proportionality.”

106. We further recommend that the new Committee should retain the existing sub-committee structure of the European Union Committee, pending further consideration by the new Committee itself.

OP posts:
BoredofBrexit · 20/10/2016 15:30

i was not inferring by you Cecile, I meant the more general derision of leavers that is evidenced on what are now almost closed boards. Even today I've been told I know nothing about Brexit (who does?!) as well as the old chestnut about intelligent Remainers. It's so unhelpful.

BoredofBrexit · 20/10/2016 15:34

Cecile if the EU want hard Brexit or no Brexit, where exactly does that leave us then? Not much scope to negotiate is there? Where is the outcry at such a position taken by EU?

CeciledeVolanges · 20/10/2016 15:37

Bored, I think you've hit the nail on the head there both times. Nobody knows much about Brexit, including (perhaps especially) those in charge of it. And the best option for the UK and all of the EU is generally considered to be staying there. Now we have said we want to leave, that creates a problem for them and us, and they have no incentives at all to make things easy for us. Why would they?

RedToothBrush · 20/10/2016 15:40

hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-10-20/debates/2E6C78A8-16E9-42AE-B1BD-E2BAA7F8CC55/OralAnswersToQuestions
Today's Brexit Questions Transcript from HoC.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/10/why-theresa-may-wont-exclude-students-net-migration-target
Why Theresa May won't exclude students from net migration target

And here's a counter to the Independent article about student figures. Its as much as anything to do with her inability to do it as home secretary and this is a mark on her record.

If this is the case, then someone leaked the stuff quoted in the Independent article for a reason, to put pressure on her.

Yet another sign of a lack of harmony and all these meetings being ridiculously leaky.

OP posts:
LurkingHusband · 20/10/2016 15:43

While the Government has an obligation, following the referendum, to deliver Brexit

Under what statute ?

Mistigri · 20/10/2016 15:45

Cecile if the EU want hard Brexit or no Brexit, where exactly does that leave us then?

Up shit creek without a paddle?

Why is it wrong for the EU to protect the interests of its own members? You want to leave the EU; sure, that's your right. But you cannot then complain that doing so means you no longer have a say in EU decisions, and that the EU may make decisions that are not in your best interests. FFS ...

mupperoon · 20/10/2016 15:54

Bored is obviously a card carrying member of the Cake And Eat It Club.

BoredofBrexit · 20/10/2016 15:55

Cecile, which takes me in a circuitous path back to my earlier post: that many Leave votes were protest votes at inequality and so on. If, during the period when negotiations are taking place, efforts were made to look at the causes and remedy same, domestically, I think it would take the heat out an inflammable situation and thereby perhaps widen the (acceptable to the uk voters) range of options at our disposal re leaving. If a more equitable uk was doing well, schools were being built, jobs created, who would care about eu fees or immigration? That is the answer, not to say 'you idiots, you deserve to suffer' and generally talk the country down. We should be hoping that we an cut new trade deals - doesn't mean we have to give up the ones we already have (if we remain in SM), but all we hear is sneering about biscuits. Sigh.