Westministenders. Whilst Boris makes more daft promises, a50 hits the courts. Poo and Fan Time.

[RedToothBrush]

There is no plan. Or is there?

We’ve talked on the last thread about how it’s being set up as ‘Hard Brexit’ or ‘Unilateral Continuity’ (dubbed here as the ‘Off The Top Of The Cliff Plan’) by the hard line Brexiteers either as the plan or the means by which to force a softer deal with the EU (which perhaps seems to be preferred choice of Mrs May herself).

The last few weeks have been plagued by comments by various members of the Cabinet over what Brexit means – comments which are frankly bollocks and show an outstanding world class level of ignorance – and have led to us being laughed at (Verhofstadt head of EU negotiations), facing outright anger and demands for compensation (Japan) and pure bewilderment (USA unless your name is Donald).

And they have been repeated contradicted and undermined by May in response with, the response that this is not government policy and she will not be giving a running commentary.

Thus making the UK look like the world’s leading political basket case whilst at the same time being ‘an excellent place to make new investment in’. Obviously. As long as you prattle the words ‘Free Trade’ a lot a bright new world of opportunity will open up. Just look at the Japanese position on that.

-------------------

But really the reason why ‘Brexit means Brexit’ is still so vague, could be a legal one.

The next step in the Battle for Brexit, is in the courts and over whether the Royal Prerogative can be used to trigger a50 or whether May will have to first pass it through Parliament before she can notify the EU that we are leaving. This may prove to be a big hurdle for the government and one they have a real chance of losing particular the NI case.

The two big a50 challenges (though there are others) come from a cross party NI challenge supported by the NI Attorney General in Belfast and a crowdfunded ‘People’s challenge’ in the English courts. The NI challenge is characterised by a loss of rights and the international agreement that is the Good Friday Agreement, whilst the English challenge includes this as well as other acquired rights and concerns over the devolved assemblies and the Act of Union.

The government’s defence to this, which they sought a bizarre court order to protect and keep secret which was later overturned, is that ministers have better expertise to implement the start of Brexit than the courts (see Johnson, Fox and Davies), that it does not fall under parliament’s jurisdiction and that whilst the Royal Prerogative can’t be used to remove rights, because ‘Brexit means Brexit’ is so vague it’s impossible to challenge use of the Royal Prerogative because we don’t know precisely which rights will be affected!

The case for the government is also being presented by a relatively inexperienced lawyer.

However, some very respected constitutional law academics think the core of the government’s argument is sound, though this might be lost in the ridiculous other defences, the government have put along it. Their lead of the defence is a lawyer, who has little public law experience too.
The government need to win both these big cases, to ensure that they can use the Royal Prerogative. Don’t forget the likelihood of appeals regardless of the first ruling too.

-------------------

Into the political void the Irish PM has stepped in to led discussions into the future of the island, the Japanese have issued a Brexit ‘wish list, the Spanish have staked a claim to co-sovereignty of Gibraltar (something rejected overwhelming in a referendum in 2002) and threatened to block negotiations otherwise, a French Presidential hopeless has kindly offered us another referendum, the USA have reiterated that they won’t do a deal with us until our WTO status is in good order and the Italians have said ‘No chance!’. This is the UK taking back control folks.

At home Ken Clarke has said that May needs to get her act together, George Osborne has said Brexit did not mean hard Brexit and Dominic Grieve has urged her not to sleepwalk into a hard Brexit. The Tory conference looks set for all out Tory War.

-------------------

In a side issue the pro-Brexit newspaper, The Sun has come out in an editorial telling the Government to have the courage to pull the plug on the child sex abuse inquiry which was set up by Theresa May when she was Home Secretary, calling it a ‘farce’ and saying its scope was too wide and unmanageable… It might seem unrelated, but it calls May’s judgment and handling of large issues into question. If she allows it to plow on, it could turn into an even bigger farce and embarrassment, yet if she U-Turns it could make her look weak and have the potential to do the same over Brexit. She’ll struggle to throw Amber Rudd under the bus over the matter, because most of this happened on her watch. This will come back to haunt May. It also starts to question Murdoch’s position and opinion of May. Is this a withdrawal of support for her?

-------------------

In summary, the next six to eight weeks are crucial to what Brexit looks like. It’s time for the shit to start hitting the fan. Brace yourselves for next couple of weeks. Get stocked up on the gin

We are not being led by UK politics anymore nor even internal squabbles really but the courts and outside forces which are shaping what is possible and achievable rather than what we want.

All talk is of a hard Brexit. It might well prove to be the case yet. We aren’t there yet though. There could be some more twists and turns yet.

An article 50 defeat in the courts for the government throws it back to Parliamentary scrutiny, taking up time and potentially watering down demands. It could even produce the result that a50 is deemed not fit for purpose and we have to go back to the EU begging for a new treaty for a way out (which technically they would have to do as they legally have to recognise democratic votes). This might be our only way to prevent a chaotic exit from the EU. This might led not to an exit though, but a two tier EU – a proposal suggested by, errrr Guy Verhofstadt, Head of EU Negotiations – and is very unlikely to prove to be the quick exit by 2020 that Kippers so desperately want. And a second referendum on the deal reached, in order to prove it was the will of the people. It could also prove a threat to the current government and raise the realistic spectre of a rebellion and a vote of no confidence and in turn a General Election.

Of course the EU themselves have a couple of their own headaches at the polls to survive too, whilst the German banks start to get the jitters. And there is the small matter of America having their own Brain Fart in the coming months, which could have a big impact on what happens next.

Yep, this is taking back control folks. What do you mean it feels more like a game of roulette? So might even say Russian roulette.

smallfox it was a sad attempt at a joke, as I am not well off myself, at the mercy of my landlord and already having to make some difficult choices. Hearing isn't even on my agenda. I'm just glad I have a lot of sweaters and have been brought up in freezing houses so I'm used to it. Those who are clued up enough to play the markets and invest their money safely, or who have it locked up in assets like houses they own, will do much better than the precariat. I sense we are of one mind here...

The irony is that TM could choose to have the A50 debate and it would go through.
The fact that she isn't even prepared to do this is where, in the long term, the damage to our parliamentary democracy will be done

I fear you are right pretty . The populace now seem to have got the idea that a "democracy" is one in which you cast your vote once for an over-simplified question, then sit back and expect whatever it was you voted for to happen because Will of the People (however impossible it may be), whilst any further discussion should be crushed, and the executive should sweep aside any checks and balances or attempts to examine said question (this will henceforth be known as "subverting democracy").

Cecille, I'm sorry. I don't mean to be flippant.

I think that in the end the group of people who voted for leave will find that some of the economic effects on them are totally against what they wanted.

There was a feeling of "well it can't get worse" from some people I know in the north, sadly it can.

I already help out a lot with a foodbank charity and have raised a lot of money/food donations for them. I know just how close some people are each month.

No need to apologise at all, nor to be sorry - I'm a lot luckier than some, I'm employed and I agree with you about who will be hit hardest.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2016/10/week-left-finally-defeated-free-market-ideology
This article by John McDonnell. Wow. He also sounds like a May Fan Boy.

David Davies on BBC Parliament now giving statement. Have only just tuned in but will try and get some idea of what has happened shortly.

May can't be sure A50 would go through, that's why it can't be debated.

Red Mark Elliot is tweeting excellently.

Ian Dunt is an unhappy bunny as he live tweets about the Commons Debate on Brexit. His live tweeting is funny as you watch him get angrier and angrier.

David Davies Statement
Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt
Davis says Brexit mandate is "clear overwhelming and unarguable... no-one should seek to find ways to thwart the will of the people".

"My whole approach is about empowering this place" Davis says while denying Commons vote on the biggest economic decision of our lifetime. Davis pretending repeal bill empowers parliament. Unless there are more details on parliamentary scrutiny, it'll strengthen the executive.

Davis says devolved institutions will have "opportunity" to work with Westminster on Brexit. Which presumably is why Sturgeon was reduced to tweeting outrage as May announced hard Brexit at conference.

So far no new details that I can make out. Now just wading in faff.
"The government will build a global Britain." What abject insufferable meaningless nonsense.
That's it. He's done. Informed us of precisely nothing.

Keir Starmer Response
Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt
Keir Starmer: "When I first read [this statement] I thought it was the one he'd provided last time"

Starmer Q1: At what stage of process are terms of A50 process to be debated & voted on? 2: Will vote on repeal bill be after A50 triggered? Q3: Will sec of state assure House govt will seek continued access on SM on best terms? Q4: will he desert divisive tone of last few weeks.

Davis tries to bully Starmer into silence by pretending his call for a vote is an attempt to reverse the result. Disingenuous argument.

Davis answers specific Starmer Q with promise of "numerous debates over next few years". Bluster.

The only specific thing Davis has said is that A50 is a prerogative power. Now blathering on about controlling orders.

Davis: "We want the most open barrier free access to European market". This is basically a description of a free trade deal.

Not a single answer in that Davis response.

Now other MP questions
IDS now brands Starmer a "second rate lawyer". Standard Brexiter response: Abuse, blithe indifference, hatred of scrutiny.

SNP Europe spokesman cites Tory manifesto line 'Yes to the single market.' Does Davis agree? Without a hint of irony, Davis says the question had more "in length than content"

'Regain control of our laws' has now joined 'regain control of our borders' as red line of Davis position.

Redwood says EU should trade tariff free. That's against WTO rules outside of FTA. He might as well propose we follow the North Korea model.

Davis looking strained and flustered, responding with no detail, relying on manifestly inappropriate arguments.

The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'. 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU. It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.

Brilliant intervention from Clegg. Advise ppl watch this debate. Finally an element of outrage and concrete detail in MPs challenging govt.

Angela Eagle: "It's the first time I've ever heard parliamentary sovereignty referred to as micro-management"

Retweets:
Primly Stable ‏@PrimlyStable
David Davis, who once resigned "in defence of civil liberties" now saying Parliamentary scrutiny is a pointless delaying tactic.

Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt
Can't ever remember losing as much respect for a politician as I have for Davis. Astonishing fall from grace.

Retweets:
Mark Elliott ‏@ProfMarkElliott
Another constitutional nugget from the #Brexit Secretary: "Crown prerogative rests on the will of the people." Making it up as he goes along

Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt
Davis saying he wants to "underwrite" EU migrant status. Then admits 5 out of 6 EU migrants already entitled to indefinite leave to remain. Have a think about that for a moment. Think of how illogical it is even on its own terms. How are EU migrants a guarantee of Brit migrants' rights in Europe if we admit we couldn't get rid of them even if we wanted to?
It
doesn't
make
any fucking
sense.

Threatening mass deportations is bad enough., Threatening mass deportations when you can't do it and it won't help you is even worse.

Passion and quality of MP statements is reflection of way demand for vote on single market, sidesteps accusation of trying to replay vote. (Even though that's obviously govt response. But as I say, it won't survive 6 months)

Sir Nick Soames looks at Davis like he wouldn't wipe him off his shoe.

Davis says it is "rich" for Remainers to interpret the Brexit vote. Amazing.

Davis says he doesn't accept Brexit will cause economic downturn, says it has economic opportunities, does not cite any.

Retweets:
Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes
David Davis says that he thinks that UK can strike a trade deal with the EU within the 2 year Article 50 window. Plenty doubt that

Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt
I haven't met anyone who believes this. No-one.

Sir Gerald Howarth thinks he's made a slam dunk on point about BMW and tariffs, the dreary inadequate fool. BMW will move if we're out the SM. They export to Europe, and then export out. You think they'll pay twice? Will they fuck.

^Bryant demands "at least a white paper and a draft repeal bill".

Davis: "Mandate we have is 17.4 million people."
Note what he's doing: projecting Brexit vote onto specifics of anything government does. This is massive executive power grab. Nothing more.

Robert Hutton ‏@RobDotHutton
David Davis, asked by @EmmaReynoldsMP about fall in £, tells her to read Michael Lewis' Flash Boys. Implication: it's all a computer thing.
Now Phillip Davis says there's no such thing as "hard Brexit or soft Brexit". That's it folks! Proof it's wrong. Phillip Davis believes it.

Davis: "The balance of negotiating advance is incredibly stacked our way." If he believes that, we're in real trouble. If he doesn't, he's a self-serving liar. I pray he is a self-serving liar.

Tory MP says Europe need us more than we need them, on tariffs. They are still saying this godawful nonsense as if it means something. Doesn't even make sense on its own terms. Our imports heavily focused on Germany, Holland & France. Others basically indifferent. This is what happens when you view negotiations as against 1 body, when you're facing 27 with differing and sometimes incompatible demands. The EU buys just >50% of our exports, while we account for around 10% of theirs - and half that trade surplus goes to Germany and Holland. And that's not even to mention fact most European leaders will put survival of EU over trade. They.Do.Not.Need.Us .More.Than.We.Need.Them. And if you think that, you're going to get hammered in negotiations.

Mark Durkan MP: "Can I congratulation the sec of state for providing us with a full range of cosmetics without one microbead of substance?"

Retweets:
John Elledge @ John Elledge
^The way Brexiters keep talking about their overwhelming mandate, rejecting the idea of a parliamentary vote... They're scared, aren't they?

Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt
Philip Hollobone: countries "knocking on our door" for trade deals. Can barely be bothered to point out what fools these ppl are anymore. Wanting a trade deal means nothing. Signing one means nothing. If you give in to your partners demands you can sign a trade deal in 5 mins. As it happens most countries will want confirmation of our relationship with single market before deal.

Still ongoing, but will try and find some other points from other people, as Dunt as good as he’s being hasn’t caught everything. He's amused me.

This is the rhetoric I hate.

Brexit has an overwhelming mandate? Not at all a 3% majority when one side was accused of dishonesty on an industrial scale.

Thanks red ( pretending to listen to my children's music practice while reading your brilliant feed on my phone)

whitehall-admin.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/speeches/exiting-the-eu-next-steps-ministerial-statement-10-october-2016
Davis statement has been published here.

I lie. This is too good not to post!
Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt
Those afterwards will leverage our vulnerability to increase market access. That means reduces standards on all sorts of issues. Data protection, drug prices, chemical standards etc. Could precipitate crippling financial blows to NHS. Govt in position to deliver over head of public through repeal bill. Hugely dangerous situation to be in. And these idiots will still be banging on about trade deals like they mean something. Tiny little irresponsible mini-brain scumbags.

I think Dunt might explode.

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam
Davis confirmed that Great Repeal Act not introduced till next session - ie after May

Hmm. Ok then.

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam
"If the EU adheres to a punishment plan (vs UK) and it fails, that is an even bigger incentive for other countries to leave..." says Davis

Sebastian Payne ‏@SebastianEPayne
"There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside" - David Davis, Brexit secretary, 10th October 2016

Someone is going to live to regret that one.

PARLY ‏@ParlyApp
Awkward. @DavidDavisMP says he has never called EU citizens "bargaining counters" and they aren't as Liam Fox states into space on f'bench

Someone already regretting another statement

Awesome letter to newspaper (not sure which about being a Citizen of the world)

Stephen Phillips (he who wrote letter to speaker about tyranny) is now making formal request for emergency debate on Brexit and what it means. His speech is very good. Impressed.

John Bercow, is not supporting the request.

But says there is an opportunity to debate at other times - the earliest being this Wednesday.

And he's lost it completely!

Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt
Astonishing, irresponsible, stupid, disingenuous, dangerous. The list goes on. Debate over. Hug your loved ones. Experiment with drugs. Do what is necessary to banish the memory of these moments from your mind.

David Davis' lack of response and lack of substance rem

They're scared, aren't they Mwahaha

(Sorry - posted by accident )

David Davis' lack of response and lack of substance reminds me of this paper supposedly written by Trump.

It would funny if it weren't so close to how he actually formulates his policies and arguments. Davis et al are no better.

I stayed up last night to watch the Presidential Town Hall Debate and we really are now living in a post truth world Scary

BMW will move if we're out the SM. They export to Europe, and then export out. You think they'll pay twice? Will they fuck.

I live near Oxford, where BMW makes the Mini. So far as I recall employees I know were told that they are adopting a wait and see stance. One friend whose husband works there said, make no mistake, if they pull out, that's it, they will be gone, and her husband will clear his desk that day. Well, this may not happen. I think it would be more like Nissan - they won't invest in new models, so the old plant will gradually wind down. Some staff will be offered work in Germany, most won't.
Thanks Brexiters, thanks Tory MP (who voted Remain), as we did in this part of Oxfordshire.

Retailers warn government of Brexit price rises

"Failure to strike a good Brexit deal in 2019 will push up prices in the shops, The British Retail Consortium has warned.

"The trade body warned reverting to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules could see tariffs on clothes of up to 16% and on meat of up to 27%.

"Years of deflation" would mean retailers would have to pass these import costs on to consumers, it said.

"It follows a similar warning from the CBI last week."

publiclawforeveryone.com/2016/10/10/the-brexit-secretarys-statement-to-the-commons/
Mark Elliott on Davies speech

To attempt to shut out Parliament on the ground that the referendum undercuts the democratic case for its involvement is as intellectually deficient as it is constitutionally dubious.
Final sentence.

Sorry, posted that on the wrong thread!

A friend was at a meeting of the Law Society of Scotland a week and a half ago (so before the Tory Party conference) at which David Allan Green and someone else spoke about the legal implications of Brexit.

He says he's going to write it up: I'll extract anything of interest

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam
Opposition tables Wednesday's motion for to push for "full & transparent" debate & "proper" Commons scrutiny pre-A50

"That this House recognises that Brexit is the defining issue facing the UK; believes there should be a full and transparent debate on the Government's plan for Brexit and calls on the Prime Minister to ensure this House is able to properly scrutinise government plans for Brexit before Article 50 is invoked"

Actual. Opposition.

Thanks for all the "info" on the David Davis statement. Depressing stuff.

Can I just say, Ed Miliband - if you are reading this - sorry if I was ever mean to you and moaned about your brother. At least your eyes are on the ball and you focus on important issues. You are a

At least we have newspapers with opposing views. At the weekend PM Orban in Hungary had the largest opposition newspaper and website shut down. RIP Nepszabadsag.

Migrants are planning to withdraw their labour one day in February to show how difficult life would be without their contribution:

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/10/migrant-workers-plan-labour-boycott-to-protest-racism-highlight-contribution-to-britain?0p19G=c

BBC News (UK) ‏@BBCNews
Tuesday's Times front page:
"Hard Brexit could cost £66bn a year"
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

fullfact.org/economy/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
In 2015 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about£8.5 billion.

Only 7.7 times more to Hard Brexit then. Best get cracking with those trade deals Liam.

Seems like a great plan and opportunity to me.