Westministenders. Whilst Boris makes more daft promises, a50 hits the courts. Poo and Fan Time.

[RedToothBrush]

There is no plan. Or is there?

We’ve talked on the last thread about how it’s being set up as ‘Hard Brexit’ or ‘Unilateral Continuity’ (dubbed here as the ‘Off The Top Of The Cliff Plan’) by the hard line Brexiteers either as the plan or the means by which to force a softer deal with the EU (which perhaps seems to be preferred choice of Mrs May herself).

The last few weeks have been plagued by comments by various members of the Cabinet over what Brexit means – comments which are frankly bollocks and show an outstanding world class level of ignorance – and have led to us being laughed at (Verhofstadt head of EU negotiations), facing outright anger and demands for compensation (Japan) and pure bewilderment (USA unless your name is Donald).

And they have been repeated contradicted and undermined by May in response with, the response that this is not government policy and she will not be giving a running commentary.

Thus making the UK look like the world’s leading political basket case whilst at the same time being ‘an excellent place to make new investment in’. Obviously. As long as you prattle the words ‘Free Trade’ a lot a bright new world of opportunity will open up. Just look at the Japanese position on that.

-------------------

But really the reason why ‘Brexit means Brexit’ is still so vague, could be a legal one.

The next step in the Battle for Brexit, is in the courts and over whether the Royal Prerogative can be used to trigger a50 or whether May will have to first pass it through Parliament before she can notify the EU that we are leaving. This may prove to be a big hurdle for the government and one they have a real chance of losing particular the NI case.

The two big a50 challenges (though there are others) come from a cross party NI challenge supported by the NI Attorney General in Belfast and a crowdfunded ‘People’s challenge’ in the English courts. The NI challenge is characterised by a loss of rights and the international agreement that is the Good Friday Agreement, whilst the English challenge includes this as well as other acquired rights and concerns over the devolved assemblies and the Act of Union.

The government’s defence to this, which they sought a bizarre court order to protect and keep secret which was later overturned, is that ministers have better expertise to implement the start of Brexit than the courts (see Johnson, Fox and Davies), that it does not fall under parliament’s jurisdiction and that whilst the Royal Prerogative can’t be used to remove rights, because ‘Brexit means Brexit’ is so vague it’s impossible to challenge use of the Royal Prerogative because we don’t know precisely which rights will be affected!

The case for the government is also being presented by a relatively inexperienced lawyer.

However, some very respected constitutional law academics think the core of the government’s argument is sound, though this might be lost in the ridiculous other defences, the government have put along it. Their lead of the defence is a lawyer, who has little public law experience too.
The government need to win both these big cases, to ensure that they can use the Royal Prerogative. Don’t forget the likelihood of appeals regardless of the first ruling too.

-------------------

Into the political void the Irish PM has stepped in to led discussions into the future of the island, the Japanese have issued a Brexit ‘wish list, the Spanish have staked a claim to co-sovereignty of Gibraltar (something rejected overwhelming in a referendum in 2002) and threatened to block negotiations otherwise, a French Presidential hopeless has kindly offered us another referendum, the USA have reiterated that they won’t do a deal with us until our WTO status is in good order and the Italians have said ‘No chance!’. This is the UK taking back control folks.

At home Ken Clarke has said that May needs to get her act together, George Osborne has said Brexit did not mean hard Brexit and Dominic Grieve has urged her not to sleepwalk into a hard Brexit. The Tory conference looks set for all out Tory War.

-------------------

In a side issue the pro-Brexit newspaper, The Sun has come out in an editorial telling the Government to have the courage to pull the plug on the child sex abuse inquiry which was set up by Theresa May when she was Home Secretary, calling it a ‘farce’ and saying its scope was too wide and unmanageable… It might seem unrelated, but it calls May’s judgment and handling of large issues into question. If she allows it to plow on, it could turn into an even bigger farce and embarrassment, yet if she U-Turns it could make her look weak and have the potential to do the same over Brexit. She’ll struggle to throw Amber Rudd under the bus over the matter, because most of this happened on her watch. This will come back to haunt May. It also starts to question Murdoch’s position and opinion of May. Is this a withdrawal of support for her?

-------------------

In summary, the next six to eight weeks are crucial to what Brexit looks like. It’s time for the shit to start hitting the fan. Brace yourselves for next couple of weeks. Get stocked up on the gin

We are not being led by UK politics anymore nor even internal squabbles really but the courts and outside forces which are shaping what is possible and achievable rather than what we want.

All talk is of a hard Brexit. It might well prove to be the case yet. We aren’t there yet though. There could be some more twists and turns yet.

An article 50 defeat in the courts for the government throws it back to Parliamentary scrutiny, taking up time and potentially watering down demands. It could even produce the result that a50 is deemed not fit for purpose and we have to go back to the EU begging for a new treaty for a way out (which technically they would have to do as they legally have to recognise democratic votes). This might be our only way to prevent a chaotic exit from the EU. This might led not to an exit though, but a two tier EU – a proposal suggested by, errrr Guy Verhofstadt, Head of EU Negotiations – and is very unlikely to prove to be the quick exit by 2020 that Kippers so desperately want. And a second referendum on the deal reached, in order to prove it was the will of the people. It could also prove a threat to the current government and raise the realistic spectre of a rebellion and a vote of no confidence and in turn a General Election.

Of course the EU themselves have a couple of their own headaches at the polls to survive too, whilst the German banks start to get the jitters. And there is the small matter of America having their own Brain Fart in the coming months, which could have a big impact on what happens next.

Yep, this is taking back control folks. What do you mean it feels more like a game of roulette? So might even say Russian roulette.

It would be very ironic if we left Europe to end up with 'cartes d'identité'. Still, by George they would be British identity cards, and they wouldn't be red. Unless somebody decided that maybe red is a good colour for something you wouldn't want to lose.

Sky news, link below.

One of UKIP's biggest donors has told Sky News Theresa May has "re-branded" the Conservatives as the UK Independence Party.

Arron Banks claimed the Prime Minister's speech to the Tory party conference could have been written by Nigel Farage, who is back in the charge of the party - albeit temporarily - after the surprise resignation of Diane James.

Mr Banks said: "If you look at what Theresa May has done today, she's basically re-branded the Conservative party as UKIP. So, a lot of the ideas, a lot of the political agenda, they've switched onto."

Mr Banks added: "What Theresa May did today was give a speech that I think Nigel Farage could have given over the last two or three years.

"It's hugely encouraging these ideas that were thought to be peripheral are now mainstream."

news.sky.com/story/arron-banks-theresa-may-has-rebranded-conservatives-as-ukip-10606677

Speaking as someone on the left, I don't see the "Centre" as having stayed in the same place although I can see why a Tory would say that

I've seen the "Centre" moved progressively rightwards in the last 20 years. I despise Blair and The Project for what he did to the Labour Party ad weep at the memory of John Smith, as I think he could have led the Labour Party to power without selling its soul to Middle England.

It's why the Labour Party is dead in Scotland and the SNP now represents the Left. It's no coincidence that the SNP are by far the most popular party in Scotland and that Scotland voted - overwhelmingly - Remain.

F

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: Cabinet split on Brexit growing over whether to stay in EU's customs union - 'will see Hammond or Fox walking'

www.thesun.co.uk/news/1919730/battle-over-customs-union-will-see-philip-hammond-or-liam-fox-chief-quit-cabinet/

David Allen Green
‏@DavidAllenGreen

1. On A50

I used to think it unlikely it would be triggered.

1. I was always careful not to say 'never' but I did maintain the probability A50 would be triggered was low and become lower over time.
2. I still think it is less likely than likely, not least of scale of task ahead and March is six months away and anything can happen.
3. But I no longer think it is a low probability, even if more unlikely than likely. It is also not becoming ever-less probable.
4. I had assumed the government would act rationally about Article 50. That was an incorrect assumption.
5. I also had not foreseen how much the government would seek to load on to 'transitional arrangements'

www.ft.com/content/cc84f9ee-8a53-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1 UK looks for transitional trade deal after Brexit

1. Because of this, my view has changed. A50 is still not inevitable and Brexit still is almost impossible as a task (19 hurdles, etc)
2. But regardless of the difficulties, this government is capable of doing it anyway.
3. Brexit is still going to be fascinating.

/Ends

Have to say, that I think I was at this mentality before reading Mr Green's assessment of the situation tonight. Very depressing to see him say similar.

Also he says:
David Allen Green @DavidAllenGreen
Possible scenario

1. Article 50
2. "Transitional arrangement" carrying on EU status in effect
3. No deal ever done
4. Transitional forever

Alexander Clarkson ‏@APHClarkson 2h
Also known as abolition of the House of Lords

I also agree that the fate of the house of lords is tied up with the future of Brexit

Foxy will fall first.

He has zero impulse control and insufficient understanding of (whoops!) International trade to make any coherent case.

Basically, he'll get into an ego scrap and just lose it.

Also, his job is utterly meaningless at this point, he's been an embarrassment already and May needs a scalp soon to frighten off potential cabinet dissidents, so she won't save him...

I didn't agree with him about the unlikelihood of it being triggered, the writing's been on the wall for a while.

So TM's jocularity today - 'Can Boris Johnson stay on message for a full four days?' drew a heckle from him of 'Yes, slavishly!'
Does this indicate a dictatorial style? 'I have the ideas and you all toe the party line and follow me...'
She has had to get cross with a number of ministers for going publicly aslant of her policy.
Maybe the cabinet will unravel as this motley crew of varied strong characters proves unable to pull together.
Just a thought...
Even The Sun is reporting that Hammond or Fox might walk, in Red's link above.

I also agree that the fate of the house of lords is tied up with the future of Brexit

Agree 100%

I would not worry about human rights either. We have had them in the UK for longer than just about any nation on the planet and will continue to have them.

Seriously?

What do you think Indians, Kenyans, Irish and Iraqis think of the British record on human rights?

...and the South Africans. After all, it was the British who introduced "Concentration Camps" during the Boer War.

“Essentially we are deeply concerned that the multitude of human rights and equality protections that people in Northern Ireland currently have access to by virtue of the UK’s membership of the EU will be lost,” he said.

From Red's Irish Times link regarding the challenge to use of the prerogative.

Put together the cozying up to the DUP by the Tories alluded to upthread (Arlene Foster visit to the Tory conference), the protection of troops from human-rights based legal challenges to their actions, the rejection of the ECHR and all it stands for, and the prospect of a looming disaster begins to take shape in NI unless clear heads prevail there and economic self interest cuts through all the sectarian crap that is never far below the surface.

The DUP in approaching the Tory conference may well be forlornly hoping that there will be money to spend in NI when the EU pulls the plug, but the surprise expressed in the blog upthread that Labour and the DUP have not made contact was terribly misplaced. Not for nothing is it called the 'Conservative and Unionist Party'.

Another reason to hope for money is the intransigent undertow in the DUP that will not accept any whiff of an alternative to the NI political entity. The current predicament of NI means there is quite a strong one. There is the danger of a radical loyalist street movement deciding to jettison the current DUP political leadership and return to a hardline position that would encourage equivalent republican activity, threaten stability, put off investors, ruin tourism - in short, destroy NI.

It is interesting to note the Damascene conversion Peter Robinson apparently underwent, hot on the heels of Ian Paisley, to support for the GFA. Robinson was a notorious of the UDA/UFF and UVF back in the day and the DUP were happy to benefit from the votes of the membership. The old UDA/UFF and UVF votes are still there.

The 'NI Street' (the equivalent of the rent-a-mob phenomenon of the 'Arab Street') is a force that should never have been encouraged, but sadly it always has been. In similar vein, the lowest common denominator sordidness that Amber Rudd speaks of, whether disavowed or not by the Tories, is out there now and can never be put back, and I suspect it is fueling some very ugly flames.

This is the sort of fire Theresa May and Amber Rudd are playing with when they talk of drawing lines among people living in and working in the UK.

Of course nothing is learned from NI. It might as well be a separate universe.

Practically, I don't understand how this self sufficient fortress Britain mentality helps the UK to operate internationally, and I don't believe the Tories have worked that out either.

It's all very well adopting the UKIP rhetoric, but UKIP make labour look like a well oiled machine. Practical solutions aren't really their thing. Yes they got people to vote for unicorns, but in government at some point you have to produce the unicorns.

Merkel will above all not do anything to reward any party or any state that encourages the rise of France's Marine Le Pen.

Le Pen is the single biggest threat to the EU because the future of France as a co-operative member or even the future of France as a member is at stake if the National Front's popularity continues to grow.

So it should come as no surprise to TM when Merkel takes out a nice big knife and starts to sharpen it. The fate of the UK will be an example to France of what is in store for her if Euroscepticism is not reined in there.

...

The Christian democracy article reveals once again how completely backward looking political discourse is in the UK.

The Telegraph article with the Reformation analogy explains very well the attraction of simple certainties instead of looking forward and forging practical solutions based on reality.

Ruth Davidson offers a slightly, more human rhetoric than her party and Fox on immigrants. Challenges the hard Brexit line. 'Immigrants who contribute are welcome here. The Conservatives are internationalist in outlook.' Really?

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ruth-davidson-speech-tory-conference-2016-immigration-foreign-workers-welcome-a7346481.html

Fraser of Allander (Scottish think tank) report suggests that Scotland will be cushioned from the impact of Brexit....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37564729

.....we're "only" predicted to lose between 30,000 and 80,000 jobs - proportionally fewer than the rest of the UK.

We're FUKD.

Today's editorial in www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/05/the-guardian-view-on-theresa-mays-conference-speech-actions-not-words-will-decide
The Guardian]] sums it up perfectly. "Action not words will decide."

Particularly pertinent was this paragraph:
but when Mrs May addressed working-class voters whose “dreams have been sacrificed in the service of others”, she was not talking about bankers, tax avoiders and overpaid executives (though she could have been); instead she talked only about the impact of low-skilled immigration. If she is determined to make border controls the red line of the post-Brexit settlement, she is going to have to be much more honest about the likely bad economic consequences, which will hit working-class families in particular.

Indeed but with tax avoiders she could start with her own party and that would be a a little too close to home.

Yes, a policy of 'Bermuda jobs for Bermuda workers' might be interesting for Amber Rudd, for instance.

Morning. Another Day, another load of depressing stuff?
I have woken up wondering if it can get any worse.
Yet twitter brings me either wishful thinking or small rays of hope amongst the dog turd brought in by the ConKip conference.

Late last night that Sun article came out about how the Cabinet were split and it with either Fox or Hammond (supported by Johnson) likely to go as a result. The Times are also reporting it today
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ad865022-8b3b-11e6-a2fd-acf8ba5605c0
Cabinet split grows amid fears over trade deals and lost taxes

So for all the unity and talk of a plan, this would seem to massively contradict that.

If Fox were to be the one to go, then the entire need of the International Trade Department would be called into question as if you are in the customs union you simply don’t need it. Whilst the idea is that the (latest current) plan seems to be favouring an option like Turkey’s where they have some ability to make trade deals of their own this is still limited and could easily be taken up by the Foreign Office. This shows the turf war in action well. If Johnson were to effectively win, then this would also probably require a quiet U-Turn and shutting down of Fox’s department.
How likely is this? What’s May’s position?

Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt
Missed this yday. May said she wanted UK firms to be able to "operate within" single market. Fascinating phrase. Step up from "access to".
Given what she said about European Court of Justice and product production, very difficult to envisage what she means by this.
Surely not playing some clever game where she rules out the ECJ but signs up to the Efta court? No-one will appreciate the distinction.
Maybe just as simple as an aim to continue passporting rights for the City. If so, she ain't gonna get it.
Starting to think the decoding approach to Brexit is unwise. Ministers so thick & flippant you overthink what they're capable of calculating
The last point is the one, that I'm definitely on the same page as!

This has come out at the same time as stronger indications of wanting a transitional deal. I posted this link yesterday, but I think it needs a closer look.
www.ft.com/content/cc84f9ee-8a53-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1
Uk looks for a transitional deal
One option being considered is that Britain might continue to pay into EU coffers as an entry fee to the single market during the interim period, pending agreement and ratification of a new trade deal.
First of all, one of May's red lines that Peston talked about a while ago was paying into the EU due to sovereignty. It also kicks into touch the idea that we will definitely be out of the EU completely by 2019.
Although such a move would be contentious with Tory Eurosceptics, ministers acknowledge there would be a gap of several years between Brexit — scheduled for 2019 — and the entry into force of new trade arrangements.

This comes as the pound hits a record low – some are saying its lowest ever point depending on how you work it out.
www.wsj.com/articles/pound-plumbs-new-31-year-lows-against-dollar-1475656387
More pressure to not hard brexit.

Back to that FT article:
Mrs May’s allies insist she does care about financial services but the banks needed to realise she also had to take other interests into account and that they should engage with government like any other sector.
Some senior officials say bankers can appear “too needy” and that they have “cried wolf” before — notably when warning that the City would be badly hit if Britain didn’t join the euro. They also acknowledge that this time the banks may have a point.
It begs the question, that is there a slow dawning realisation that some of the economic predictions of ‘Project Fear’ were indeed closer to the mark than they wanted to believe initially and have been doing a lot to deflect this week? They will know that the chances are the pound still has further to fall because we have some way to go before any a50 triggering.

Its not just the Cabinet that is split. This was in the FT today (tweeted by Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE so I’m not sure which article)
‘Not everyone is enjoying the ebullient atmosphere. “It is like lots of people have taken amphetatmines,” one MP who backed Remain said of the conference. “I wish I could share the euphoria – but I’m afraid I don’t”’

That both gives me a bit of hope whilst making the hairs on the back of my neck stand up. There is something about the ConKip conference in the sheer lack of dissent that bothers me. Saying that it was like everyone was on drugs, also implies a sense of brain washing to me, and in the context of socialist and nationalist tones, is alarming. Just how widespread disaffection is and how much of a show the ConKip conference was might take some time to work out.

There have been some interesting comments in response to David Allen Green’s shift in position on the likelihood of a50 being triggered too.
Sgoldswo @sgoldswo
@DavidAllenGreen however statements re 48% yesterday interesting. Not consistent with hard line
David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen
Yes, that looked like a softening.

In response to the government shaping up to be reckless enough to trigger a50 in the face of the sheer scale of problems, and not considering that this recklessness made the government capable of triggering it:
John BH @pragmatistuk
@DavidAllenGreen Capable of it , but yet without the capacity to do it?
Again a nod to the difference between will and capacity to implement.
Pointing out that transitional can become somewhat less transitional due to lack of capacity

George Peretz QC ‏@GeorgePeretzQC
@hselftax @DavidAllenGreen The French Third Republic was also temporary. (They couldn't decide who should get the throne.) It lasted 70 yrs.

To the perhaps over optimistic
Heyman Cheeseman @heymancheeseman
@DavidAllenGreen they're looking for an out, not of Europe, but of Brexit. The EU can give them that. Goals without plans always fail.
Though it has to be said, one of May's red lines looks to have shifted if a transitional deal includes paying into the EU.

It was also pointed out that a transitional deal might include continued freedom of movement. At least in the interim you understand.

I saw this elsewhere, and its spot on:

Francisco Putan ‏@JCP_UK
EU has seen signs of facism in UK and will not give is a deal without Freedom of Movement. Rightly so.
And it will become more and more the case that we will not get ANY deal now, unless we agree to FoM somehow. A transitional deal might be the only way to save face.

Overall it does seem that the ConKip conference might not have been quite the resounding success for them that appearances might suggest. The backlash against some of the things said has been present in places you might not expect – the Telegraph and Times (though both have also carried positive stories too), the markets and business have responded more negatively than you would expect from a Conservative conference and Merkel has gone all hardline because, frankly she has to.
But then again, as I say, in the face of fascism reaching uk shores, then perhaps we are all blinded by the sheer will not to believe it. I am wary of the echo chamber.

Then again Who said this?
Hansard, January 10 2008:
The British population will increase to over 70 million by 2031, and at least 7- per cent of that increase will be down to immigration. What is the Government’s big idea on immigration? They borrow British National party slogans such as “British jobs for British workers” – even though everyone knows that would be illegal. Can we have a debate, in Government time, on Labour’s failed immigration policy?

The issues tell a bigger story. We have a Prime Minister with no long-tem vision, just short term tactics, and no serious answers, just spin. He spent a lifetime working to get to No.10, but now he has got there, he has no idea what to do.

Ahem. Where IS Corbyn to point this out?

(It actually appears that Amber Rudd’s proposal was stolen straight from the Labour Party but people have reacted to it in a very different way post-Brexit, which is revealling in itself. Perhaps a miscalculation of the national mood rather than a real belief?)

Anyway, Back to Human Rights:
In response to:
Sky News ‏@SkyNews
@Theresa_May: we will never again let "left-wing human rights lawyers harangue... our armed forces" #CPC16
There was this:
The CBA ‏@TheCriminalBar

The duty to uphold rule of law and hold state to account transcends politics.
It has nothing to do with being left or right wing.
Who is this?

The Criminal Bar Association exists to represent the views of the practising members of the criminal bar in England and Wales. RT's not necessarily endorsement.

Oh.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/05/the-damage-that-will-be-done-by-a-human-rights-opt-out-for-the-uk-military
The Damage that will be done by a human rights opt out for the UK military. This is a letter from a QC to the Guardian.

Shoaib M Khan @ShoaibMKhan
Exactly this! If human rights lawyers are bringing frivolous vexatious claims, then why is Govt paying out millions?

On Scotland the Herald are reporting what Westminister could do over Brexit. www.heraldscotland.com/news/14781802.Westminster_could_unilaterally_axe_devolved_laws_post_Brexit__expert_warns/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Unilaterally axe devolved laws without consent or consultation.

Whilst the Guardian reports:
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/06/hard-brexit-could-see-scotland-lose-80000-jobs-and-cost-2000-a-head?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Hard Brexit could lose 80000 Scottish jobs and £2000 a head.

Does Nicola Sturgeon have at this point, any other option BUT to launch a bid for Indy2? If this isn’t enough, what is. The trouble is, it almost looks like May has set the bait for her to do this. Is this arrogance on May’s part or indeed a trap?

And final thought for now:
Jo Maugham QC ‏@JolyonMaugham
From whence comes Theresa May's right to interpret the Referendum as mandating no extra money for our NHS but this attack on foreigners?

Indeed what is Faisal Islam’s pinned tweet from Sept 16?
Over summer, I asked many Leave voters what they wanted for documentary. Some wanted Single Market. Lots wanted 350m

350million. No where to be seen this week. If May is listening to the people as she claims, this should have been top of the agenda over the past couple of days.

Its not quite the shift to the left (centre) she is suggesting is it? We need to keep pointing this out and how the government is aiming far right NOT centre.

Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour
Item 1 on FT website - "Theresa May takes swipe at rootless capitalist elite". Item 3 - "Hammond in Wall Street charm offensive".

Ah. sigh

They seem to be 'aiming left' by going all the way round the circle and attempting to pick up labour voters who might swing to UKIP - the people who wouldn't be in the Labour Party but have traditionally voted labour and seem to be turned off by labour.

The swing votes in the middle seem to be being completely ignored at the moment by both Labour (excluding PLP) and the Conservatives.

Is this the way of the world now?

Not Brexit related, but the fracking approval...
I don't really have anything to say any more. Feeling hopeless about the whole thing.

Agreed, it has been a few very dark days Cecile. I was like David Allen Green and thought no PM (with any sense) would trigger A50 but now I'm beginning to wonder. I wrote to an Italian friend yesterday evening that I was initially relieved when TM took over and thought she was just making a show of going along with the Brexit narrative but, my God, now she is doing a very convincing impersonation of someone who not only wants Brexit but wants a really economically suicidal version of Brexit.

I think the only thing that can put the brakes on it (apart from successful court challenges) are for major splits in the cabinet to become public and for a Big Name to walk. I can't imagine anyone would keep Fox over Hammond - I can't imagine anyone would keep Fox over the Downing St cat - but life has been full of surprises in the past 100+ days.